(RCEP) Globalization has changed in a century: the era of separatist rule is coming

When the system formed after the end of World War II is less than a century old, the "post-war order" established by it is now facing major challenges.

At this stage, global trade has become more and more regionalized. So far, multilateral trade agreements such as TPP, CPTPP, NAFTA, TTIP, and WTO have emerged one after another.

The establishment of RCEP this time just shows that the previous WTO system has become unsustainable, or at least has encountered a considerable bottleneck period. Otherwise, many Asian countries have no need to start all over again this time.

Therefore, my judgment is that the establishment of the RCEP will not promote the existing globalization system, but will also aggravate the collapse and disintegration of the existing WTO. It is very likely that after the WTO is gradually emptied, it will instead absorb more members and gradually replace the original system.

First of all, the reason for the collapse of the old globalization system represented by the WTO is the popularity of neoliberalism at the end of the last century, which caused European and American companies, especially American companies, to move a large amount of manufacturing out of their homeland simply to track profits.

Coupled with the fact that the beneficiaries of globalization are concentrated in multinational corporations that pursue neoliberalism, while creating a large number of rust belts in the central United States, it is also accompanied by the intensification of social contradictions brought about by the huge wealth and income inequality. I remember when I was watching the video of Trump and Biden’s presidential election debate this year, Trump said a very impressive sentence, to the effect that “If you (Biden) and Obama govern the country well, neither will I. would have been president four years ago."

Although this sentence sounds like a bit of comedy, the details are a reflection of the previous policies, especially the contradictions accumulated by the United States for a long time.

Secondly, when the old system collapses, it is inevitable to enter a situation of "rituals collapse and happiness decays". In the same logic as the Jiantu Huimeng, Zhaoling Huimeng, Huangchi Huimeng, and Xuzhou Huimeng in the Spring and Autumn Period, if Zhou Tianzi's control was strong, how could the Spring and Autumn Five Hegemons emerge? It was the long-standing social conflicts that had accumulated after the war that enabled the anti-establishment and anti-globalization president represented by Trump to come to power. ​​​​

The establishment of RCEP is fundamentally not to maintain the existing etiquette system that maintains the authority of "Zhou Tianzi", but to break through the old etiquette system and establish a new trading system.

Therefore, RCEP is actually more about dredging the existing system than adding bricks and mortar.

Furthermore, the member states of RCEP are the high-end manufacturing industry represented by Japan and South Korea, the world's most powerful middleware production represented by China and the country with the most complete industrial categories in the whole system, and the China represented by the ten ASEAN countries. Countries producing low-end, cheap, mid-end and low-end final parts, and important industrial raw material suppliers represented by Australia and New Zealand are a free trade alliance. It is no exaggeration to say that if RCEP member countries do not consider the factor of oil supply, A closed inner loop can be formed completely. ​​​​

Therefore, once such an alliance is established, it will inevitably pose a very big challenge to the WTO. Unlike other existing trade alliances in Europe and the United States, RCEP is like the Qin State back then.

It is Qin's strong production capacity and continuous strong comprehensive national strength of logistics that are beyond the reach of the six countries that enable Qin to fight against Zhao in the Battle of Changping, forcing Zhao to have to fight against Qin's main force. Fight to the death as soon as possible, so as to avoid the situation of being starved to death by the whole army. It is also relying on the developed agricultural irrigation systems in Bashu and Guanzhong that enabled Qin to steadily fight a steadily advancing war of annihilation with Chu. ​​​​