Does every investment start from speculation?

Today’s article continues to share investment or speculation with you. This article starts with the actual history. I will not draw conclusions with subjective emotions. Everyone will have their own ideas after reading it, which is more important. Yes, your thoughts are understood from your perspective, and my thoughts and subjective views will affect you. This loses the meaning of disseminating investment (machine) thinking. Ok here we go.

Not all wonderful transactions can only be done by professionals. After 2000, there was a big man, Duan Yongping, the boss of BBK, who bought NetEase at a price of less than US$1 at the end of 2001. At that time, NetEase was listed on Nasdaq List and execute trades. After he bought it, he insisted on holding it until the final price of NetEase exceeded 70 US dollars. Duan Yongping said in many public occasions: He bought NetEase with the mentality of long-term holding, which is the investment mentality mentioned above, so the transaction with the investment mentality must be Do you buy the cheapest? ? Things are not that simple. In 2000, Sina, NetEase, and Sohu were all listed on NASDAQ together, and they had a brilliant opening, but the Internet bubble exploded soon after. Until the end of 2001, the stock prices of the three companies fell to 1 US dollar. I dare say that many people saw it at that time. If calculated from various financial data valuation systems, the stock prices of these three companies not only fell below the net assets, but NetEase even fell below the net assets. The net cash amount, (the cash and bank deposits held by Netease can buy itself according to the stock price at that time, or if you buy Netease stock, and then you don’t want the company, the money on the book can also make you a lot of money) so low Is buying at a price a value investment? If it is, then it means that it is unreasonable to fall to such a low price. It is an ineffective market, so why is there an ineffective market? If it is an invalid market, why does it keep the price at a very low level for a period of time? Can't those high-ranking bosses all over the world see it? The answer is no, and many people have discovered it, but they even asked a more serious question, which is delisting. Nasdaq stipulates that if the stock price is lower than the US dollar for a long time, it will face delisting.

The purpose of our trading is to make money. No matter how good the company is, it will really become paper in the hands of Niu and delisted. Those who bought Netease at that time needed the courage to be an enemy of the world. You can say that he just gambled. You can say that he has sufficient analysis, (Duan Yongping photographed Buffett's lunch back then). You say that he has a vision and everything is good, but what he has to admit is that he is also playing a game. The game is that NetEase will not delist. The game is speculation. What is invested is opportunity, that is, timing. So does it mean that you will make money if you buy under 20 yuan? The investment angle is no problem, and it is feasible even if you don’t count the time cost, but what you can’t ignore is that the capital retracement may fall to 1 yuan and rise to 20. You If you buy it for 10 yuan, your purchasing power will be ten times less than if you bought it for 1 yuan. If you solve the problem, others have already made a lot of money. Timing is the soul of trading. Investment trading is done speculatively. Is this sentence worth it for you and me? Think carefully? . . . . .


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