trading and gambling

Ordinary investment is not gambling. Stocks, bonds, funds and other investment products that generate interest can obtain stable and considerable returns through reasonable management. Gambling is not like this. Gambling is just a game of probability, and casinos have reduced the overall winning rate of gamblers to below zero through mathematical algorithms. According to the principle of big data, they are sure to make money without losing money. No matter how skilled you are and how lucky you are, the result of your long-term presence in the casino will be nothing but nothing, and if you make a mistake, you will lose everything. Everyone who gambles for a long time will lose, and if he does not gamble, he will win. This is the truth that everyone can understand. In reality, there is no such thing as Chow Yun-fat, a gambler who always wins every gamble. Those who are only a thousand gods can only engage in killing in reality. Zhu Pan bullied the bad gambler. The so-called gambling king of Macau, Stanley Ho, is in the gaming business. His huge wealth is not won by gambling skills and luck, but from gamblers through winning gambling games.

For example, in the simplest game of throwing dice to guess the size, we all think that the winning rate is half to half. In fact, the effect can only be achieved through the analysis of a huge number of samples. That is to say, you keep playing guessing the size tens of thousands of times. , probably half to half with the casino. There is a probability analysis method called variance, which refers to the deviation between the random variable, which is the result of each card you draw, and the mathematical expectation, which is the theoretical half-to-half probability. I won’t talk about the specific calculation process. It gives a result that can explain the problem. If we go to the casino every day and play ten games a day, then at least until the 24th day, there may be a five-win-five-lose half-to-half state. What's more, the casino will also stipulate that the dealer of the Leopard takes all. The winning rate of playing dice itself is not 50%.

Speculative trading is a lot like gambling. First of all, it has no concept of value investment. Any speculative trading product is based on the price difference to make a profit. There are no dividends, interest (currency overnight interest is too small compared to its amplitude, and it cannot be used as the target of investment) and other returns. Second, its possible rate of return is too high, even higher than gambling, comparable to lottery tickets, and it is really small and big; third, the existence of high leverage makes it more exciting than gambling. What is the scene of apprenticeship allocation? The gambler pays 10,000 yuan, and the casino allocates 5 million yuan. If he wins, he will go to the gambler. If he loses, he will only pay the 10,000 yuan. Are the gamblers going crazy?

If you regard speculative trading as a means of getting rich in the short term, you are gambling, and there is only a difference between getting rich and going bankrupt. Unless you are lucky, you can magnify the principal dozens or hundreds of times in a short period of time, and this kind of thing has really happened. But the operation that can double in a short period of time can also blow up the position in a short period of time. Don’t say that if I earn enough money, it will be over. The huge profit will make you unable to stop at all, and your last transaction must be a blowout. What's more frightening is that you don't know which order is the last one.

If you believe that the greater the risk, the greater the reward, you are still gambling and greatly increasing your chances of going broke. In speculative trading, what you invest in is opportunity, not risk. Smart speculative funds will always look for products with the least risk and join in the direction of least resistance. Things like Soros’ battle in Southeast Asia can only be told as legends. In speculative trading, it is necessary to distinguish between the expected profit and loss ratio and the actual profit and loss ratio. The higher the expected profit and loss ratio, that is, the easier it is for you to make a lot of money at your current position, the greater the risk, and the more cautious you need to be.

There are also differences between speculative trading and gambling. First, the winning rate of speculative trading is not determined by the market, but determined by the trader himself, which is closely related to his technical level, depth of thinking, operating habits and other personal conditions; second, there is no upper limit to the winning or losing of speculative trading. If you press up to 100 yuan, you will lose 100 yuan at most, but if you follow the wrong banker in the speculative market, you can lose as much as you want, but you can control its size. No matter how much you bet, as long as it has not lost , you can get back the rest at any time, and the same is true for profits. If you get it right, as long as you don’t stop, the market will continue to give you profits; third, there are no rules at all in the speculative trading market, what do you think? You can win as you want, and you can lose as you want; fourth, and most importantly, there is a certain way to win in speculative trading.

Doing speculative trading is not a place for gambling: first, you can create your own rules, when to participate in the market, when not to participate in the market, the position and duration of participation are completely up to you; second, when you lose, you can advance To get back the principal, there is no thug from the casino who will hold you back and prevent you from leaving. When you win, you can still stay in the market and not leave, and there is no thug from the casino to drive you out. This is the winning method of trading, you must have your own trading system, you can lose it when you lose money, and hold it when you make a profit, that's all.