Trading is like fishing, what you practice is the tranquility of the trader

Lao Li Trading Research Institute
李论风险

The transaction itself is composed of profit and loss, right and wrong, and there is no such thing as a transaction with only profit or loss. In trading, right and wrong are continuous and inseparable. This continuity does not refer to continuous profit or loss, but right and wrong appear alternately, and will always be like this, with continuity.

At the same time, right and wrong are inseparable, just like the front and back of a piece of paper. No one can always make profits or losses, and no one can separate profits and losses.

The conversion of right and wrong in the trading market is very fast, so fast that there is no time to react. A transaction may be profitable one minute ago, but it may become a loss a minute later; This kind of rapid conversion of right and wrong is unique to the trading market, and it is also an essential difference between the trading market and other markets.

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Trading is like fishing, what you practice is the tranquility of the trader. Even during intense sporting competition, it is imperative to keep the mind cool while the body remains active. Calm, the heart is like still water, you can see everything around you without getting out of shape; calm, methodical, you can make proper choices;

Once you enter the market, it is almost impossible to keep a calm mind. It can be seen that the main challenge to the success of the transaction is still yourself, and the analysis tools do not account for the main part. Conciseness is the best tool, don't add confusion.

Judging the trend should be black and white, not gray. It's either black or white, so when you do it right, you will naturally admit death and stick to it to the end, so that your profits can be fully increased; The gray state of judgment leads to a paralyzed state of behavior, and it is impossible to form a profit model of "letting profits fully grow and losses smaller than small amounts".

Take a bottle of water, squat down on the ground and pour it slowly at one point. The water accumulates more and more, and the circle of water keeps probing around until it breaks through at a certain point, and then it starts to flow. During the flow process, the water head keeps testing left and right, and it will flow if it finds out the direction. In hindsight, the path of the water follows the laws of gravity exactly—the path of least resistance. But water does not predetermine the direction, and the process of water flow is the process of testing.

When the market direction is clear and the momentum is overwhelming, it is a trend state, and you should chase ups and downs; when the market direction is unclear and inconsistent, it is a state of balance, and you should sell at highs or buy at lows according to the basic trend direction. Different states require different strategies.

There are roughly three stages in learning to trade: the intuition stage , when you see a rise, you go long, and when you see a fall, you go short, and the result is half-win and half-lose; the stage of learning and accumulation , when you see the ups and downs, you don’t feel the ups and downs, you think a lot, but you win less Losing more; in the stage of intuition and intuition again after comprehension , if you see whether it is rising or rising, you will go long, if you see whether it will fall or fall, you will be short, and finally you win more than you lose. This is very similar to the analogy of reading from the thin to the thick, and then from the thick to the thin, and it also coincides with the three realms of Zen practice.

In many cases, it is indeed difficult to tell the ups and downs, so the essence of technical analysis is not prediction, but discipline: when certain conditions are met, take certain actions, including waiting. There are also many times when the market direction is clear. At this time, prediction is still not the focus, but action is the focus.

The reason why market technical analysis is a discipline is first of all that we need to develop the habit of focusing, and focus on the real relevant direct market information, so as not to let the complicated news interfere and dilute the effective signals that are not necessarily strong; secondly, It is to develop the decisiveness of action, not to do it if you can't see it clearly, and do it immediately when you see it clearly. Like the way of hunting, the way of fishing. Traders must be focused, and if they are not focused, they may miss key plots.

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Last updated: 08/22/2023 23:37

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