Are we trading or gambling?

Mid-term and long-term exchange learning
风生水起

Starting from the foreign exchange market, after early short-term losses, he started a medium-to-long-term career, and has been persisting, and found that this is a trading system that suits him.

Of course, at the beginning, people often questioned, saying that there is a problem with order making, that it is not suitable for trading, and that it does not know how to trade. But there are too many traders in this market, and everyone's operation methods are different. In addition, in order to get more commissions, some account managers try to come up with some violent flip charts to lure you with more profits. It is better to follow his short-term thinking, which can avoid risks and the like. They will talk about a lot of short-term advantages, but I don't rule out that what they say is correct, but they ignore one point, that is, every order needs to be a little bit worse, because this is the beginning of risk, and it can also be regarded as the beginning of cost increase.

At present, I see a lot of people doing technical aspects, and relatively few people doing fundamental aspects. Although it is still a learning stage for me to do fundamentals, I am more used to focusing on fundamentals + technicals to make orders. It may be because I didn’t learn much technical knowledge when I first came into contact with the stock market. The teacher who taught me asked me before. Me, do you want to do short-term or long-term, if you choose medium and long-term, please learn more basic knowledge, that may be the most helpful for you. My favorites in this stock market are Buffett and Charlie Munger. The investment gods who focus on medium and long-term investments mainly rely on fundamentals to make profits. The K-line chart of the stock market can be made with funds, and it has real effects, but I think it should only be used as a reference. Looking at the fundamentals is nothing more than looking at the general direction and the future, because everything depends on expectations, first the market reaction, and then the results. When you can judge the general direction to be close to ten, it will come back even if you place an order early, and even get the result you want.

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Regarding the issue of placing orders, some people asked me some time ago that the entry points of crude oil and gold I was looking for were not bad. Here I also want to say something about the issue of placing an order. I think all the orders come from the predicted directions made in advance, and of course there is a certain element of luck. As for whether the order is accurate or not, my personal understanding has always been a false proposition. There are so many traders in this market, the trading volume is so large, and there are market sentiments, how can one place an order with 100% accuracy. All the order points will only be in the interval value that you have predicted, and you will never have to guess the bottom or the top, which is not very meaningful.

Also on the issue of risk control: Personally, I always think that it should be the best within the range that I can bear, and there must be too much leeway. Never show hand, that is gambling. Now I see that many friends’ losses come from short-term + placing large orders. If the stop loss is within the tolerance range, I will not be able to bear it after many times. How many times can we make mistakes? Many inner activities gradually turned into "just get back to the basics", and finally got deeper and deeper, and it was difficult to control myself. This is a vicious closed loop. When you blindly think about profit and return, you have already lost the mentality. This will lead to the weakening of the more important risk control awareness. All profits come from waiting and accumulation.

My personal opinion on long-term and short-term: Because I see many people place orders on the technical side, and there are a lot of short-term or intraday orders, I am worried that there will be more emergencies at night, which can be seen in the European market, but sometimes in the US market at night. There will be some data that will disturb the trend of the market, and even a lot of speeches or some data will be released in the early morning. If you place a large order, you will definitely be more anxious. In order to reduce risks, do it within the day.

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Short-term personal opinion: If you really do short-term, please don't do it too short, because it will increase your risk infinitely. There are really not many people who do well in the short term, and losses account for most of them. Another point is that frequent short-term losses will lead to loss of personal confidence, and gradually you will doubt whether you are right or not suitable. Often this mentality will make you very passive. Doubt is a great disadvantage in trading. Please treat it with the "feeling of first love". Believe first, then it will be possible. If you doubt too much, you will not have too many good results, because your heart has flaws and rejection, and you are not firm.

Personally, the main band and the medium-term are the main ones. Let me talk about the views of the medium-term: When a good direction is judged, the strategy and the range of tolerance are well established, then the most important thing that must be done well is risk control. After all, those with leverage need a margin, and there is a risk of liquidation at any time. Forever small singles keep trying to find a suitable entry point slowly, even if they are wrong, it doesn't matter, there is a possibility to come back. Even if the bet is not big, you can bear the loss. Most of the markets in the market have a lot of shocks, less unilateral, and the shocks are divided into big and small. Try to look at the big level, such as H4, D1, etc. This way, it will naturally be a little clearer and the risk will be reduced a lot. Only by staying in the market will there be opportunities, which is the same truth.

Let’s talk about the main reference for making orders: technology is something that you don’t need to choose the indicators you are familiar with. It is often garish and makes you confused. This is also true, and that is also true. There are too many technical views and drawing methods Well, it's just a matter of probability. It is suggested that you can learn the basics, so that you can make yourself more aware of a general direction. Even if the position is not good and the direction is right, it will come back, so you don’t need to worry too much. I believe that many of my friends have experienced chasing ups and downs. When they sell, they rise, and when they buy, they fall, as if the main force is watching you. In fact, no, all of this is caused by my own psychology, and the flow of funds will follow events. This is an eternal truth.

For the selection of varieties: choose 1-3 varieties that you are familiar with and like. After all, you can do long and short in the foreign exchange market, and you can make profits in any way. Very good, focus is always the best choice (because I did Aomei on a whim a few days ago, the loss has been stopped, and the loss is about 1400, and my own lessons need to be deeply reflected).

Please don't place an order based on technical aspects alone, as the probability will be much smaller, and bring fundamental views, which will increase your personal success rate. If you ask other people's opinions every day, it is meaningless if you have more or less, because you will never be able to grow, and in the end not only waste your own time but also waste other people's time. If you think about asking others to get a result every day, maybe the chance of tossing a coin is higher. After all, you are gambling. It depends on your luck. This market follows its own trading system and is always in your hands. Please believe in yourself.

I hope to meet more masters here, learn some fundamentals from the masters, and grow myself faster.

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Last updated: 09/06/2023 14:01

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