If there are sects in the trading market, they can be divided into two factions, one is the fundamentals, and the other is the traditional technical analysis. Today we will put aside the fundamental analysis and talk about the most commonly used technical analysis.
Orthodox technical analysis has never been to predict the market. It belongs to the category of statistics at most, and what it gives is only a result of probability analysis. That is to say, technical indicators can only provide us with buying and selling signals. It is a matter of probability, if investors can truly understand the meaning of technical analysis, maybe everyone will be one step closer to success!
It's a pity that everyone doesn't seem to understand such a simple truth.
From a large point of view, technical indicators are nothing more than two opposing ideas. Trend thinking and finishing thinking. The former buys because it rises; the latter buys because it falls. The former is a "trend indicator" headed by the moving average system ;The latter is the "overbought and oversold" indicator headed by the KDJ indicator.
Technical analysis is established on the basis of these two incompatible ideas. The key to using technical indicators is: whether you can find technical indicators suitable for the analysis scale in a specific market.
In other words, find a market scale that is suitable for the analysis of a certain indicator. In a simple summary, the probability of making money with trend indicators is greater than that of shock indicators in a trend, and the probability of making money with overbought and oversold indicators in a shock-adjusted market is greater than that of trend indicators.
Technical analysis can be very simple. It is so simple that one line and two lines can be used to send a clear buying and selling signal. It is so simple that only two indicators can be used to analyze the market. It is so simple that the most classic two technical indicator systems can be applied to most market place.......
Since it is so simple, why can't our small and medium investors realize profits, or even lose money? What's the problem?
Here I would like to ask friends who have not achieved profitability: Have you used one or two indicators as your only operating system, and have you persisted in using them for several years?
As I said at the beginning: technical indicators belong to the category of statistics. So the technical indicators can't tell us what will happen to the market! This means that any technical analysis has inherent "flaws", and we can understand this flaw as our transaction "cost" in trading! Maybe the problem is here: most investors cannot tolerate such "flaws" in technical indicators, they always try to pursue perfection!
Perhaps it is because human beings are born with the instinct to pursue perfection, which makes many traders fall into a strange circle. It is in this process of pursuing perfection that they are farther and farther away from success!
They always pretend to be smart and think "better", "better", "more perfect".
Of course, some masters of technical analysis, they will no longer struggle in the above vicious circle, and some people start to pursue perfection in other ways, looking for more sampling features to expand the analysis thinking of technical indicators. Add volume and add fundamental information. . . Wait, some masters even began to learn to graft different technical indicators to achieve higher accuracy!
In the era of highly advanced technology, these are no longer a problem. With the high popularity of computers, the above work has also become easier. As a result, many weird indicators have appeared, some of which are even weirder than we can imagine.
It is not to say that such highly sampled analysis of technical indicators cannot improve accuracy. There is only one law that always dominates the market, that is, the more accurate the indicator, the less stable it is! As soon as time passes and the market changes slightly, this technical indicator will be eliminated! Perhaps this elimination takes place at the same time as the indicator development phase! The perfect combination of blur and defect ratio will last forever! Einstein said that there must be uncertainty in the formula that can predict the future!
The wave theory and Gann theory that everyone is familiar with are two types of analysis that do not belong to orthodox technical analysis. They are indeed formulas for predicting the future! But the reason why it can exist in the market for a long time. It is because of the uncertainty in these two formulas for predicting the future! (I won’t explain too much here, I just hope everyone understands that the reason why they are perfect is definitely a kind of fuzzy perfection, the beauty of uncertainty) Simple is beautiful, and simple is stable.
Finally, I would like to say a few words to those so-called masters. The (same scale) grafting of the moving average system and kdj indicators cannot cultivate invincible technical indicators, but can only allow you to survive in constant contradictions forever! The more indicators you analyze and think, the more chances there will be contradictions. When you gain an advantage, you will inevitably absorb a disadvantage!
Sometimes it's ridiculous to think about it. The so-called technical analysis masters can accept spending their whole life to improve the accuracy of technical indicators, but they can't accept the small cost!
This is like an aunt who sells ice cream, instead of focusing on how to increase sales to obtain more profits! Instead, put all your energy on where the wholesale price of ice cream is lower, and even where the ice cream wholesale can be free of money! Haha, how good it is, there is no cost, and sales revenue is equal to profit.
Finally, I am making a very appropriate analogy. The market is like 5 playing cards with 4 spades and 1 heart. There are two ways to gamble: one is to earn 10 yuan for drawing hearts, and pay 1 yuan for drawing spades; the other is to pay 10 yuan for drawing hearts, and earn 1 yuan for drawing spades. The change (different) of the market is nothing but the change of the ratio of black and red and the odds of black and red!
Of course, you can choose any way to gamble before each gamble. Technical analysis can only tell us which gambling method to choose, but not how to draw hearts and earn 10 yuan for the first time! !
Or how to alternate two different ways of gambling to maximize profits! ! Those who are interested can play this kind of game, and try to use the first gambling method exclusively, the second gambling method, and alternately. Which one is more profitable in the end? ! ! I don't think anyone is stupid enough to try this kind of boring game, anyway, I have tried it many times. Unfortunately, most people in the stock market use the second way of gambling! Often due to "short-term experience", people who use alternate gambling methods may lose more!
Trading is not an exact scientific game, but an exercise of mentality and a cultivation of gambling skills.
Successful investors find a trace of inevitability in a market that is completely uninevitable to achieve ultimate profits! Often this kind of inevitability does not come from the market, but from your own gambling skills! You may think my poker analogy is ridiculous, but if you change 1 yuan into 10,000 to play this game. Let's see if everyone can lose 60,000 in a row three times in a row, or even 6 times, and remain indifferent! ! This is mental exercise! ! Gambling is very simple, more critical is the mentality. We must know that when we play games, we know the fixed probability! But the market can only give us a rough probability, it is impossible to be so clear!
Add
