Does trading depend on luck?

Some people fall when they buy, and rise when they sell. Some people will lose if they stick to the strategy, and they will make money if they act recklessly.

What does this phenomenon indicate? Sell ​​when you want to buy, buy when you want to sell? Don't stick to the strategy, can you make money by operating randomly?

No.

This phenomenon is just a manifestation of random results, but it just happened to be the case at the time​. Just like you are tossing a coin, if it proves to be profitable, it will be a loss. You even tossed the coin 3 times and it was tails, that is, you lost 3 times in a row. Will the result of your next coin toss be tails? uncertain.

​Leave a small question: What is the probability that the coin will be turned upside down next time (regardless of the case where the coin stands up)?

The phenomenon is randomly distributed, so it is easy to encounter a period of always losing money, or a period of always making money, or a situation in between. Some people revise their strategies or even modify their strategies when they encounter a loss period. This is unsolvable. What is the one-shot outcome of a random distribution? It is luck, that is fate.

​It is impossible for a trading strategy to succeed if it is based on randomly distributed results. Only by counting all randomly distributed results can we achieve success, but if we count all the results and there are no new results, what are we doing? Trading is ongoing, and we cannot count all the results. In the case of a very large base, it will be close to success. For example, backtesting the 1-hour period K-line chart in the last three years, there are about 18,000 K-lines. The strategy of backtesting statistics may not be successful. A viable strategy must yield profitable results in backtesting.

What is Continuity? That is, it remains unchanged. If we say that there is generally no absolute continuation, because everything has an end one day. We generally talk about relative continuity. For example, the sun rises and sets every day, which is continuous. It rains today, and tomorrow it may be sunny or otherwise, there is no continuity. In trading, we should use the principle of continuity as the cornerstone of our trading strategy. ​

A feasible strategy is generally based on the principle of continuity, and the result of passing the test of at least 18,000 candlesticks is profitable. ​