The futures T+0 trading mechanism tends to make investors impetuous, especially after making money in short-term intraday trading, they are more prone to impetuous psychology, which is not conducive to long-term trading. In order to better improve futures trading returns, we believe that investors should learn wolfishness, learn to wait and be patient, because what the futures market lacks most is opportunities.
As we all know, there is a classic line in "Bright Sword": Wolves travel thousands of miles to eat meat. These short words fully reflect the super-high tolerance in the blood of wolves. Not only can wolves be patient, but they also have enough patience. This patience is to wait, follow the flock, and find the weak and left behind from the flock. , Wait until the target being tracked is exhausted, and then wait for an opportunity to act. Sometimes in order to capture a prey, the wolves may have to follow hundreds or even thousands of miles. So wolves travel thousands of miles to eat meat, which means that wolves can eat meat only after traveling thousands of miles.
The role of the futures market is to transfer risks for major spot companies. From this perspective, the essence of this market is a risk market. When retail investors come here, they spend money to buy risks. If anyone doesn't know enough about this, then no matter how much money you make at a certain moment, you will still be a loser in the end.
The understanding of the nature of risk determines whether you can effectively manage funds. Commodity margin trading uses leverage, and you can use less capital to leverage huge profits. But "profit and loss come from the same source", and at the same time, you also take advantage of huge risks.
Traders who enter the futures market are successful if they can persist and wait. Small and medium-sized investors have a bad commonality, that is, they can't bear the funds in their accounts not decreasing or increasing. Watching the prices of the products they care about fluctuate up and down, they hold positions without moving. They subconsciously think that they are losing money and miss too many opportunities to make money. In the process of catching prey, wolves will also have opportunities that seem to be opportunities, but wolves will not act rashly, and will not attack when it is not the best time. Once they act, they will be killed in one blow. We believe that futures traders should do the same. When the opportunity is bad or there is no opportunity, observe and analyze more, be patient and wait, and once a good opportunity appears, you must attack decisively and make a final decision. If you can achieve "If you don't make a sound, you will be a blockbuster", then the probability of becoming a successful person will be greatly increased.
There are various types of traders in the futures market. Some investors like to chase the varieties with large price fluctuations, and constantly change the trading varieties. As a result, they fail to catch a few small market trends, and miss the big market trends, and even lose money in trading results. Therefore, it is recommended that investors maintain a single-minded attitude. In this regard, we should learn from wolves.
In the movie "Inception", Xiao Li changed a person's future behavior by implanting an idea into the dream, which is very interesting. In reality, deep thinking is the first step in changing behavior, because only deep thinking can produce strong thoughts, which can then be reflected in behavior. If the transaction is to be perfected day by day, review is our in-depth thinking.
So how to review the market to summarize the market more efficiently, and then have a positive effect on your own transactions? We have summed up a set of beneficial content and forms in the long-term review training, and share them with you.
▌Market overview
Every day or every once in a while, we have to summarize the trend of the underlying (whether it is stocks or futures) we have done, and simply divide the market into sharp rise, sharp fall, slow rise, slow fall, wide shock, At the same time, it will also summarize which period has stepped out of a clear trend, which period has oscillated in which range, which period has changed from long to short, how different volatility situations evolve, and which of the six situations What is the combination of high probability among them... Through the long-term review of the market, the ability to read the market has gradually improved, because there are more reviews, and naturally they will become more sensitive to some of the regular things.
▌Data Extraction
There are two ways to extract data. One is to write down the profit and loss of the day, the variety made, how many rounds, and the maximum loss and maximum profit data of the day. However, really useful statistics must be professional tables.
In our long-term trading training and practice, we have formed a set of excel tables. You only need to import your own transaction records into it, and all transaction data will be automatically generated, including profit and loss, handling fee, winning rate, profit-loss ratio, transaction frequency, Holding time for winning trades, holding time for losing trades, etc. Through these data, the whole picture of the transaction can be clearly outlined, and the cause of the loss can be quickly found out. Some are losses caused by a low winning rate, some are caused by a large proportion of handling fees, that is, too many invalid transactions, and some are caused by an inverted profit-loss ratio, and the holding time of losses is higher than that of profits. , which can be seen at a glance from the data extraction.
If the variety and order quantity of opening a position are fixed, the winning rate, odds and frequency within a period of time determine the final profit and loss, so the combination of these three rates is very interesting. There are many three-rate combinations that can make money, each suitable for different personalities Type of traders: low odds plus high frequency and high winning rate, small profit accumulation, which is a typical feature of speculation; high odds and low frequency plus appropriate winning rate are the characteristics of the band; low odds, low frequency, super The certainty brought by the combination of high winning rate is the highest, so it can be scaled up.
The winning rate and odds of a trader can be increased at the same time in the early stages of growth, but when they increase to a certain extent, the winning rate and odds will become a seesaw. The choice of high winning rate and low odds or high odds and low winning rate varies from person to person . Solidifying the winning rate and odds, increasing the frequency can increase profits, but if the frequency exceeds a certain degree, it will bring about a double drop in winning rate and odds, and the gain outweighs the loss.
▌Summary of Wrong Behavior and Right Behavior
Misbehaviors, such as not strictly stopping the loss or slowing the stop loss, increasing the position after losing money to recover the loss, doing too much where it should not be done, etc. These mistakes should be listed one by one. To be correct, for example, stop losses firmly in dangerous places, follow the trend firmly when the trend comes, and so on. Wrong behaviors and correct behaviors should be listed in one, two, three, four. Make a list every day, and you will find out where the crux of the transaction is repeated, and what are the correct behaviors that can really make you generate stable profits.
There is another method I call "behavior form", which is to list the wrong behaviors that you often commit and the correct behaviors that you should do one by one, make a table, and correspond to each item after the market every day. When you arrive, you will mark it with a cross, and then score it. If you do well, you will be rewarded, and if you do poorly, you will be punished. It has nothing to do with profit or loss, but only with behavior.
▌In-depth review of big mistakes and big right
What a big mistake? It is a big mistake to lose a lot in a certain market stage. Often big mistakes are not caused by one mistake, and if one mistake is not adjusted afterwards, another mistake will be caused. If you make a mistake and don't admit it, don't correct it, and make it again and again, it will lead to a big mistake.
We want to analyze what caused the big mistake. It may be that the market during this period does not match your method, or it may be a series of changes in mentality caused by the retracement of floating profits. What is the reason for the big profit? Is it because the market is smooth or because the trading rhythm is well controlled? Or both? The analysis of big mistakes and big right is mainly to analyze whether one's own behavior is correct or not. At the same time, big mistakes and big right often correspond to invalid and efficient market conditions.
What we want to focus on is the ineffective and efficient market. Use the screen recording software to record the detailed transaction process and review it. Which market is particularly in line with the system, how to make a lot of money, and the faith comes from profit. It is also necessary to review the market that is very lethal to oneself. What is the commonality of these market conditions, and what is wrong with the behavior? After analyzing the big mistake, it is necessary to propose solutions. The measures must be written down with a pen. Before trading the next day, take a look and remind yourself that these measures must be highly feasible. Don’t ask yourself that it is impossible to do it. s solution.
▌Refine the advantage situation
When you continue to summarize, you will find that in some specific situations, the advantages of making orders are particularly obvious, and the odds and winning rates are very high. Most mature traders only do some specific advantageous situations, and let go of those opportunities that seem to be profitable but actually have a lot of risk behind them. One of the ways to achieve stable profits is to only do these advantageous situations, and then increase the size in this advantageous situation to maximize your own advantages.
It needs to be emphasized that review records should be checked frequently. Looking at the review notes at different stages will have different gains.
Trading markets such as futures and stocks are unpredictable, and the market is developing all the time. Although it cannot be said that all traders live a life of "licking blood on the knife head", but "how can you not get your shoes wet when you often walk by the river". Therefore, any master in this market must go out with a knife.
This is no decoration. The requirements for this knife don't need to be too high, it's just that when you need to cut a warehouse, you can do it well.
And looking at those losers, there are no more than two types: one is without a knife, and the other is hacking with a knife all day long.
People without a knife don't know how to stop losses. If there is a loss, they just resist. Although you can recover your losses most of the time by doing this, a reverse trend market can give you the urge to find a knife and chop yourself off.
As for those who hack with knives all day long, there are no rules when entering and leaving the arena, and they come in and out entirely according to their own mood. Although you are willing to chop, but if you chop and chop as you like, even if you are the world's number one in length, you will end up like a eunuch.
In trading, knowing is difficult, doing is even more difficult, and knowing and doing is even more difficult! If any place is not done properly, a painful price will be paid, which is the fundamental reason why every trader feels miserable in the process of growing up.
So, don't always be in a hurry to make a deal, just be in a hurry to make a lot of money. As the saying goes: money does not come in a hurry. People all over the world dream of getting rich overnight, but those who get rich in the end are those who do one thing repeatedly in one direction. In the end, time gave him a huge return.
Now that you have come to this market, you must be in awe of the market, the market, and risks. Don't take it for granted how the market will go and enter the market, and similarly don't take it for granted how the market will end or even reverse and leave the market. You must have a set of practical trading methods, which is what we usually call a "system" trading strategy.
So with such a system, can it soar into the sky? No! You have to endure loneliness, step by step, day by day, time after time, earnestly implement it. Then in the end time will also pay you huge rewards. Not necessarily when, maybe tomorrow, maybe next year, but that day will come eventually.
Patience and waiting are a battle of resilience and a powerful weapon to overcome the dangers of life. Why should it be advocated? This is determined by the specific operation of certain things. Sometimes, when a person is in a very embarrassing situation, no matter how hard he tries, it seems that the results are not great. At this time, the so-called belief in heaven rewarding hard work seems to be no longer effective, just like holding 10,000 yuan in your hand, but trying to shake the futures market through your own careful calculation. At this time, the best strategy he can do is not to rely on his "brute strength", blindly believe in his own judgment, and invest in some futures varieties that may rise or fall sharply. On the contrary, if you take a step back and watch the price changes of these varieties quietly, wait for the opportunity, first and second, and then attack decisively when the opportunity is selected. Therefore, the process of endurance is painful, but the result is sweet.
Before entering the futures market, every investor is full of confidence, thinking that he can not be surprised, and calmly deal with the ups and downs of the market, but in the wave of price fluctuations, it is easy to lose himself. In the final analysis, I still haven't cultivated enough, and I can't grasp myself well when facing temptation, and I lose the big because of the small. The futures market is not only a market that tests human nature, but also a market that exercises people. Those who achieve great things must endure the test that others cannot bear. When the time and conditions are not available, patience is waiting for the opportunity, and patience is creating conditions for the final victory. The same is true for the futures market.
I also have a habit of writing while doing deals. After encountering a particularly smooth transaction, I dissect the reasons for its success. After making a big mistake, I will immediately summarize how to avoid this kind of mistake in the future, under what circumstances should I trade with caution, and so on. When the trading conditions are between mature and immature, I will first write down the possible trend and what conditions can be met to open a position, and then observe whether the trend can slowly fall into expectations. The transaction itself is a trend that gradually approaches expectations and The process of generating transactions and then verifying expectations, adjusting expectations, and finally processing. Doing so can not only gradually improve the forecasting ability, but also prevent yourself from opening positions rashly when the conditions are not ripe.
Trading is a long process of cultivation, only by thinking more and writing more can you improve faster. If you don't seriously review the tape, the tape will review you.
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