Today I am talking about the idea of market trading. Because I feel that the problem of trading ideas may be the most essential performance problem of stock investment or futures investment. If a person's thinking is not clear, whether it is the stock market or the futures market, the money you earn will definitely contribute to the profit of the transaction, and it is likely to be brought about by accidental luck.
Why? If I tell him that it is good to buy stocks now, he buys them, and he makes money, what will be the result? He felt that the market was predictable and he could make money from it. If I point him out wrong, he may suffer a real loss. So I feel that as an investor, it is really meaningless to make money or lose money in one or two separate transactions in the market. If I let him make money, if he does not have his own trading ability and trading ideas, this is hurt him.
So I feel that before investors in the securities market enter the investment market, they may first solve a problem of basic trading ideas. In the words of "Sun Tzu's Art of War", it means that the victory is determined before the war is fought, and from the perspective of trading, before you enter the market, you know how to make money in the market. Don't think that this is Impossible, in fact, I think it should be possible, and my friends at hand are indeed making money in the market.
He may have lost money in many transactions, but the transaction results must be very, very good. I had a friend in May and June last year. He had a fund and asked me to trade it for him. I was very busy at the time. The account balance I looked at was about 9 million, and there were many transactions in which I owed money. I once lost 300,000 to 400,000 yuan, and I also lost a lot of money in daily transactions, but the transaction results were very good. For such a trader, in fact, he already has a very well-formed trading style. When he enters the market, if something goes wrong after entering the market, he may not even blink his eyes, and he will exit the market after two minutes. No matter how high he will hold it.
So when doing this kind of trading, I feel that his trading ideas have formed a trading habit, and finally become a trading routine or model. I want to continue to do this kind of trading. The profit should be more and more impressive. He should be such a person who has a clear trading idea and trading method.
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In fact, from my own understanding, market transactions should be a relatively complex, systematic and dynamic process. Whether it is transaction forecasting, it is only a small part of the overall transaction, a link. Therefore, the trading idea is actually as written on the picture just now, and it actually involves problems in various links. From a basic understanding of the market, what kind of market do you hold in your eyes, is there any law in this market, where is the law, and when there is an opportunity, you need to have such a set of things.
Second, after you have this set of ideas, after you have prepared this set of knowledge in your mind, when you look at the market, you may be able to find your trading opportunities, and then the whole process should be, I feel that the entire trading process should be a link. Can not be less.
Then let me talk about the theoretical models and tools of investment in detail, which are actually the things that are demonstrated by the market outlook and methods. Market outlook is a basic understanding of the trend of market fluctuations, the inevitability of contingency, market outlook.
The methodology is that in this trending market, it is the same trending market. The two traders may trade in the same direction as you, and I trade in the same direction, but the position of our entry is not necessarily the same. We hold profitable positions The time is not necessarily the same. There may be common things in the cognition of the market and the trend in successful trading, and every successful trader may not be able to violate it, and it is definitely impossible to succeed if it is violated. However, in terms of grasping the trend, there can be individualized elements among various traders.
So in fact, whether the market is the futures market or the stock market, the market is difficult to grasp and uncertain in the eyes of ordinary people and normal people. The market rises and falls day by day, and where will it eventually fall? Not sure. But there are hidden regularities. This is a diagram designed by myself. In fact, I use such a diagram to express my own understanding of the market. If the market is a big circle outside, it is very complicated. I only understand the inside of this market. Small circles, if the market is in this state, market transactions can be grasped, but I can't grasp the part outside the circle.
If I make transactions in the circle, I am fighting a battle with an advantage and certainty. If the market is not within this range today, then I have to gamble, and I have to rely on luck. If I gamble too much, I will definitely lose. So if you can limit the scope of trading to certain trading opportunities, the probability of success will be greatly increased.
Whether it is a well-trained trader or an investor, he should be able to see regular patterns from the market, just like a person who is not color-blind can see regular patterns. For most investors, it may be that they should see The market is random. He cannot find a relative, certain opportunity to trade, or a certain regularity from the randomness of the market, so as to use it to make money.
Therefore, I think the basic attitude of an investor is that no matter whether you are doing securities or futures, don’t participate in transactions that you don’t understand. I should first consider which opportunities I can grasp and which opportunities I cannot grasp. If the definition of this problem is not clear, of course it is difficult to define this problem. If you have no market experience, you can’t define it clearly. How to have a definition before entering the market is very difficult, but the difficulty must be solved. If you can’t solve it, how do you do it? What about the deal? You base the transaction on a very fragile foundation, and the probability of success of this transaction is very, very low.
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Different traders, it should be said, have different views on the market. Some people can see the pattern, some people can't see it, some people know when the risk planning is best, some people, big Most people may not know that this problem must be solved as a successful trader.
This is from an abstract point of view. You have to find someone who studies the market and grasps the laws. Well, grasping the law is actually an abstraction. In fact, if you really want to grasp the law, you may still need a trading model or a tool. This market has trends and laws, so I need to To realize the model and tools, and to embody the laws I understand in actual transactions, then you need some trading tools, including trading model tools, so I compare the trading model and tools to crossing the river. Bridge and boat, every trader, trader, and investor should have such trading tools. In this way, you not only have a grasp of market transactions, but also have quantitative and fixed points, macro and details , both have a large market perspective and are operable.
Trade with the trend
Then let me talk about the trading models used by many investors in daily trading, how they look for entry opportunities, and the success probability of entry opportunities. Let me talk about this issue.
Generally speaking, in futures trading, trading with the trend must be the first priority. On the basis of trading with the trend, one is the key point breakthrough method. When the high point and low point of the market break through for a period of time, you go in, because under normal circumstances That's it. If the market price breaks through the highs or lows for several months in a row, this market trend will often continue, and the probability will be relatively high. The first one will fail, but if the short In the case of the market, if you strictly follow this, the probability of success is relatively high. Don't look at the price fluctuations here as if it is a short period. In fact, you don't need to live in this short period. In fact, your profit return is very rich in a very small line.
This kind of transaction is a regular one, and I personally use this kind of thing. Of course, I still use other transaction models.
For example, this is a chart from a long time ago, but it is very clear. It has been oscillating for several months, and there is no big fluctuation. Then one day it suddenly breaks through the red line of the previous high point. This may be a very good deal. Opportunity, generally speaking, this kind of breakthrough is of great significance, and it may indeed be good later, and the return is also good.
55 day moving average method
This one is an entry mode, and the second one is the 55-5 moving average trading method that I personally use. How to use this, first of all, it is necessary to determine whether the overall trend of the market is rising or falling. This trend is determined to rise or fall From now on, when will I go in? The principle is that you can’t go short in a long market, and you can’t go long in a short time. If the current market is a long market, then after the market price angle is corrected, we don’t operate, I don’t move, I watch it, if it falls below the 55-day moving average , then I will not go short, and one day it will stop, stop the 55-day moving average, I feel that this kind of transaction, once successful, the return rate is also very, very high.
For soybeans this year, starting from the second half of last year, the trading opportunities for soybeans, if the 55-day moving average can be grasped well, the profits will be very rich. Of course, I mean the 55-day moving average can also be used in the entry link.
Understanding the Market Paradox
Another is the domestic futures market, which is relatively closed. It may not be completely consistent with the fluctuations in foreign markets, whether it is in Chicago. Yes, our commodity prices in China are generally subject to the overall trend of global futures, but China's futures market has its own characteristics.
To put it simply, the recent gold futures, I remember the day when they were listed on January 9, they opened at 230 yuan per gram. As a result, the international gold price rose from 900 to more than 1,000, and then the group of people who make gold in our country, I guess nine out of ten lost money. These two deviate from each other to a certain extent. I once made more money once or twice, but later I felt that it was wrong. This is a habit. When a market doesn't behave as it should, it is more likely to behave in the opposite direction.
If others go up a lot, you go up a little. If they go up a little, you don’t go up. If one day they go down, you will definitely plummet. This is actually due to the deviation of internal and external prices to some extent, you can conclude that there will be problems with the average price in the domestic market. In fact, why does the price of gold in the domestic market deviate from the international market? From the interpretation of the gold investment structure of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, who will do the trading in the domestic gold market? Who do the deals? Whether it is China Gold or Shandong Gold, they are all fresh goods companies that produce gold. They buy out a large amount of hedging, and he digs for gold while selling short. From the perspective of the production and operation of their companies, this behavior is very reasonable.
Because his bidding price may be relatively low, it may not matter to him whether it is sold at 220 or 225. But as a speculator, selling at 220 and selling at 225 are completely different things. After you sell at 220, you have to cut your position after 225. As an economical hedging company, he certainly does not need to do this.
On the one hand, gold companies are such large spot companies. On the other hand, they are small and medium-sized producers who have been transferred to stocks for many years. Small and medium-sized producers have their own characteristics in futures. If you are more courageous, you will open a larger position as soon as you open a position. The second is that their psychological endurance is actually not good. In this case, the asymmetrical market will inevitably lead to distortions in the price of gold and the international market.
Find Your Approach Paradox Grasp
So I think as an investor, you must first have an understanding of market trends, and second, when you trade with the trend, you also need to have a corresponding set of quantitative trading models and trading tools. You have this market trend and a quantitative trading model, which actually limits your random speculation. Because if there is no model signal, you can’t operate, and the model signal will definitely not be there every day, so every investor enters futures first, and the same is true for securities. First of all, you need to establish a set of trends. For the trading model, you can also summarize some regular characteristics by yourself, and I will enter the market again when a certain situation arises, which solves the problem of market understanding and entry.
With that out of the way, what should investors do? Maybe just waiting for a trading opportunity.
After you have a market trading model in your mind, you can distinguish what is a trading opportunity and what is not. You look at the market yourself, can you see trading opportunities when you look at it? Trading opportunities are first of all a matter of having a standard in mind. There is no standard. In fact, in your eyes, there is no difference between what the market is like today and what it will be tomorrow.
So with this set of theoretical tool models, investors should also be clear about what is their own trading opportunity and what is other people's trading opportunity.
What are you looking at? Many people stare at stocks every day. I feel that there are always some problems. I don’t know what they are looking at, or what can they see in the market? This is the same as fishing. I have been talking about a problem with the students I lead.
Doing futures trading is the same as doing stocks, that is, watching the market is like watching fishing. When fishing, you put down the fishing line, and there are fish floating on the water below. There are many fish in many fish ponds. Fishermen may feel that there are a lot of fish in this fish pond, just look at the fish in the water, but in fact, if you are a real fisherman, no matter how many fish in the water, it has nothing to do with you. In fact, it really has something to do with you It is you who should keep an eye on the float. If your float moves and the fish bites your float, you may be able to catch this fish.
There are all kinds of fluctuations in the market, but the power of this fluctuation is not yours, you can only watch it. Your trading model or trading system has a signal, this may be your trading opportunity.
So I can’t say that I’m not here because the market has risen so much today. The market is changing every day. There are more than 2,000 stocks in the market, and there are more than 10 varieties. There is no standard, and you actually don’t see anything when you watch this. You are very tired and stare nervously at irrelevant things. For example, some people look at the time-sharing chart, which is very, very unreliable. It is elusive, look at this kind of crude oil, the time-sharing chart of a random crude oil price in the international market, can you see a pattern from it? See an opportunity to seize? This is very, very difficult, microscopic market positioning is very difficult, if this is used as the basis for trading, who will lose money if you don’t lose money? This is my own experience.
When I look at the market by myself, if we trade by ourselves, we look at the market with purpose and awareness every day. Turn off the gold when watching the market every day, and turn off the jumping numbers. It doesn’t matter if you look at it, just look at your model and this trading system. Is there any relationship between the market and the price? If there is, it is our opportunity. If you don’t, just sit Don't look there. After reading it, you will be fascinated and captured by the market price again. You can’t help but forget what you should do as a rational trader and what a rational investor should do. Therefore, it is very important to watch the market.
Like this thing, if you simply draw a few lines on this chart, this line is an important and key figure. If you make this model, you can’t actually make many transactions in a year, and you don’t have to keep an eye on the market every day. Tired, but the probability of your trading success is greatly increased. If you stare at the market all day long, the possibility of losing money is very high, and the possibility of success is very small.
It’s good to have a model, and then find trading opportunities. If you enter the market, you will not be able to make money without entering the market. Therefore, when you enter the market, you must consider several issues. Personally speaking, this kind of problem is because of trading business After too long, this kind of thing is relatively proficient. When I first entered the market, this time the signal to enter the market came. I ranked the reliability of this signal in my own model.
Different investment funds are formulated according to different signal qualities. If a certain signal is very important, then I may be very big, and I will go in first. Then what to do after entering for the first time? Either win or lose, prove your judgment is right or wrong. In an unfavorable situation, my transaction handling is still good. The moment you enter the market, I will immediately make a reverse transaction order, and I will run away when I know a certain point. So if the situation of a certain transaction is not good, you don’t need to keep an eye on it yourself. If there are children who trade, they will control the risk of this transaction.
The basic principle of futures trading is to make a small loss and get as much profit as possible when doing more.
How to overweight
Therefore, the issue of overweighting is very important. Once a certain transaction is profitable, a friend outside just now said that he is always a little bit unstoppable. After making money, he is afraid that it will disappear after a while if he does not close the position. Indeed, the market is like this. For example, your transaction is profitable. After that, it is possible that if you do not close the position and come back, it will be gone.
But if from the perspective of the overall transaction, you want to make a lot of money in this transaction itself, and the signal quality is very good, then if it is from my own personal transaction, then come back, I don’t want this money, because this Little money is meaningless to me. For example, I earned 300 points in 200 hands, which is 60,000 yuan. Do you think I should close the position? Originally, I didn’t want the 60,000 yuan. For example, if I was optimistic about 100 points or 200 points, it didn’t make sense for me to close the position and get it in my pocket if it was 300 points.
Instead, I should add 100 lots, originally 200 lots, added 100 lots, 300 lots, once this kind of transaction is done right, it will suddenly become 150 points or 200 points, at least 100 points or more, 100 points is 300 lots 300,000, when you lose money, you lose 30,000.
Generally speaking, through this kind of successful profitable transactions, minus the loss-making transactions, your general ledger may have a penny more in the end, so this question of overweight, in fact, I think it is a relatively smart one. The method allows you to keep your value at all times and make a lot of money when you make money. Because I feel that the possibility of really relying on a little money to save up is relatively small. If there is no significant profit, the possibility of success of this trading account is relatively small.
In fact, there is also this problem after overweighting. After overweighting, you can’t add it. The trade that was originally profitable has turned into a loss. As a trader, you should probably accept it with peace of mind. The trading market is like this. After you get the overweight , every transaction listens to you? The market is not run by your family. So losing trades should be accepted naturally.
There are still three questions after the overweight, what should I do if I want to make money, sometimes the market moves very fast, and sometimes 70 or 80 points will come out within a few minutes of the transaction I bought in, at this time I don’t care about the long-term trend behind, the size , Sometimes it should be leveled all at once. When I get a big return in a very short period of time, I want to get my profit immediately. It has nothing to do with me if the market goes up to the sky, and neither do I. Say how much money you must earn from this transaction today, and you will never do it again after this transaction is completed.
This transaction is realized, and your increased profit has nothing to do with me. I will start to make trading opportunities that suit me again. Don't talk about theory at this time, long-term trading, short-term trading, those who want to make profits must hold long-term, this kind of nerd's point of view. I personally think so. Of course, if it is a real long-term transaction, maybe you are right to hold it.
I just talked about the strategy of overweighting the market. In fact, rational trading is still more important. If a market is an investor, one of the prerequisites for the long-term formation of the market is to take less risk. For the first time, even after the trading signal appears, you may not have too much money in the position.
Generally speaking, I feel that it should not exceed 30% to 40% for small accounts. Because the leverage of futures trading may be 30% or 40% of the profit and loss at once, which is very, very large. If you get it in the wrong direction, you can't stand the opening. Heavy warehouses have their advantages. An investor in Wuhan made soybean oil with 60,000 yuan, and it took a few months to reach 20 million. When the report came out, he still had 20 million, and it became 50 million in a few days. Ten thousand. This is futures trading, and it should be said that the leverage of futures trading has been brought into full play.
It just so happens that soybean oil is a unilateral trend. After investing 50,000 to 60,000 yuan to make money, he will buy more. For example, the original 10 lots will become 120,000 after he closes the position, so he will buy 20 lots and double it again. If you buy 40 lots, and then buy 80 lots, many people think it's ridiculous. Why didn't he leave when it was more than 20 million and still in it? In fact, the person who asked the question had a problem. If he didn't have that kind of non-killing game, he wouldn't be able to reach 20 million at all. When it costs 60,000 yuan to 120,000 yuan, he might not dare to do it anymore, but if he continues to play this kind of game, in fact Whether it is more than 20 million yuan or more than 50 million yuan, it will eventually be returned, because to some extent, he is making full use of leverage. But the market will not rise to the sky, and soybean oil will not rise to the same price as gold.
So it's normal for this person to succeed, and it's normal to fail. So I think there are several unfavorable trading problems. When investors may make a transaction, they may feel that a certain signal is very reliable and well-founded. My own, because the trading time may be relatively long. From a personal point of view, when I trade, the first thing I think about is how much money is lost, and I don’t care about making money. Why? Make money by entering the market?
In fact, what you should really care about is what to do immediately after a list is entered? One is price stop loss, and there is another kind. For example, after you enter, the market does not lose a few points, and it keeps dangling, and you don’t make money. Sometimes you just watch this transaction and don’t do it, because my The experience is that it is a transaction that really makes a lot of money, a violent transaction, and you get money as soon as you enter it. If you keep lingering there, then there must be something wrong with this transaction.
You don't have to wait until 20 o'clock to run, just run if something is wrong two minutes after entering. Sometimes I feel that the people below me don’t necessarily understand. When I enter, I close the position. I lose several points as soon as I come, and the handling fee is very high. At least 50 million yuan must have gone in. In fact, after I signed the order, I immediately lost money. I feel that this order is not right. At this time, I don’t want to read it anymore. If you lose money, you will lose money. This is a relatively difficult one.
time stop loss
But you may also refer to it, so you don’t have to wait for that price. The principle of time stop loss is this problem. A very risky transaction like futures trading may actually have relatively high requirements for investors. I feel that as a successful transaction, when I most hope, the most What is the desired situation? After I entered, the market immediately made money for me. If the market did not give me immediate returns, I always felt that I did not want to stay in this transaction, I did not want to participate in market consolidation, and I did not want to adjust. Because once the leverage is adjusted casually in the futures, you can’t stand it. After the position is large, you can’t stand adjustments of a few hundred points, let alone dozens of points, so I don’t want it from the bottom of my heart. Adjustment, I would rather miss the market. For example, if there is a profit in hand, it doesn’t matter if an order has risen by 50 points or 80 points. If there is a tendency to turn around, I will run. I just wait for new opportunities and don't participate in market adjustments. So this is also my personal point, not necessarily right, not involved in adjustments, not involved in consolidation.
develop your own behavior pattern
What I talked about above is all aspects of the overall investment transaction, from entering the market, to risk management, to the processing of profitable positions, and the processing of loss-making transactions, probably in the transaction process. Then the second question is that you know the number of such a basic transaction, in fact there is a thing of the unity of knowledge and action, the problem of the unity of knowledge and action may still be difficult. To some extent, people say that transactions are Mental games, this also makes sense. I want to use futures as an example. Why is it difficult to do futures?
For example, if you give you a certain balance beam on the ground, it is very narrow, and you may have no problem walking back and forth on it. If you put this balance beam up to a height of 50 meters and let you walk from one end to the other, you may not even be able to climb it, let alone leave. Does it mean you can't walk? Of course not, in fact, your psychology has completely controlled your thinking and behavior. The difficulty of doing futures may be here, because what you are facing is the temptation of the market, whether you are facing the fear of a market crash or panic, you are facing the randomness of the market going back and forth. Downgrade, your psychological pressure is very high.
So in this kind of volatile market, you have to maintain a rational behavior pattern, enter the market when it is time to enter, and control the risk. You have lost money three times in a row. This time it is not smooth, not so Easy. Therefore, rational behavior in the entire futures trading is actually an important guarantee for successful trading, but this thing is very, very difficult. Like the flat horizontal bar I just mentioned, many investors and futures traders may be due to psychological factors.
Of course, the one I mentioned earlier, the overall process of the entire transaction, may have insufficient research. There may be some research, but it cannot be done in actual operation. Yes, when it is time to control the risk, he may not be able to control it. For various reasons, everything can happen in the futures market, so the behavior of many speculators is actually capricious, and there is no stable and relatively rational Behavioral patterns.
Therefore, the psychology and behavior of investors are unstable, and they are not completely consistent with the overall trading ideas, which leads to their trading results. To some extent, this kind of investment fate may determine his fate of failure as soon as he enters the market. So for investors, it may be said that a truly mature investor should have some obvious and clear trading routines, styles, and his behavior.
For example, I have a friend who trades, I don’t need to look at his bills at all, I have to trade every day, but if there is a certain situation in a certain market, because I am very familiar with him, I know he will Do it, if you make money after doing it, he will not close the position, and then at a certain point, the market will not change, so what if you close the position, in fact, the behavior of this kind of person has changed to some extent Relatively mature and stable, I can't predict the behavior of most people. They do this for a while, then do that for a while, and it's really not clear what idea suddenly pops up.
For example, this friend has done a very good job. He should be a first-class excellent trader in China. In his trading of soybean oil and his big trend, this is a real transaction bill. In fact, he is not like the general imagination. Yes, the trending market, buy from the bottom, buy 14,000, he may make a little money and run away, but this person's account has increased tenfold from last year to now.
We bought gold that day, and we also bought gold, and he bought it too. I looked at his bill later and he also bought gold. Then, after we finished buying gold, it dropped by 30 yuan that night. Later I saw, I said he ran away, maybe it was his trade. When the market opened, he lost money on the first day's trade. As a result, he really did. After looking at his trade, he really ran away at this point. A mature trader, his behavior is predictable.
It's impossible for me to wait because I lost money, and he certainly won't wait. Because he may have tasted the bad taste of waiting before, so he thought it was better to leave quickly. Even if gold rose very high later, that was a later thing, but I will not participate in the adjustment, nor will I I will wait for your market to adjust, I will wait for it to come back directly, goodbye to this transaction.
Originally, under normal circumstances, I went up after breaking through the day before. If I went up, I would definitely stay here and I wouldn’t leave. But if I didn’t go up, forget it, the transaction failed. The failure of the transaction does not mean that your final judgment on the market is wrong or the pattern is not good, but from the perspective of your overall transaction risk and account security, this transaction ends here.
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