Guide:
The pendulum is based on inertia. If you make its pendulum heavier when you are at the highest point, it will not go up. Lose weight more when it is more brilliant, and find funds when it is lower.
Today I would like to share with you the speech given by Mr. Lin Guangmao, the thick soup savage, at an event. I hope you can gain something~
When I first started learning this industry, I studied technology in school. Various technical indicators, wiring diagrams, trading volume, including the range of graphic operation, long-term interest charts and rate of change, etc., various indicators for analyzing price changes and trading volume changes. It should be said that I worked very hard at that time. I graduated first in the comprehensive points of our class at that time, and the whole technology, including things related to futures and securities, was relatively thorough. This stage includes going to Chinatex after graduation, its fundamentals, its supply and demand, including policies and arbitrage of internal and external markets. I summarize all these things as "skills" in this market. The so-called technique is technology. In my opinion, whether it is technical analysis or fundamental analysis, if you only master one aspect of it, it is only called a technique. These techniques are one-trick things. If you really understand and comprehend this trick, it includes many technical indicators including trading volume and some internal things. If you understand it, you can really understand this technique. If you have a deep understanding of this technique and know under what circumstances it will work, then you can basically achieve the so-called one trick in the financial market. I think this is a relatively early stage for investors, which is to learn tricks. This stage is inevitable, and primary investors must go through this stage when they enter this market. I think this process includes fundamentals and technical aspects. The so-called supply and demand is also a kind of art. It does not mean that a person can be completely sure of the price trend after explaining the supply and demand clearly. Because when the supply and demand are clear, the price has actually reflected it. Its future trend cannot be predicted by the current supply and demand, so it is only an auxiliary. These are also at the technical level.
After going through the technical level, a more important stage for me is to take all these techniques together and take them apart. You will find that it is nothing more than how the price changes, whether the trading volume is large or small, etc. It reflects the popularity in the market, including everyone's actions, including whether the speed is fast or slow under the change of trading volume, including whether the interval will break through... In fact, all these techniques are combined with some actions, and you put these After all the movements are disassembled, they will become some very subtle movements. You will find that the best way to apply these techniques is when you sit in front of the market and you have no judgment in your mind, you follow the market trend, and then reflect these subtle actions to the changes in the market. This is what I think a trader in the financial market has truly advanced. This advancement means that he has mastered all the techniques. So I think that after the investor enters the second stage, he can disassemble all the tricks. The significance of this disassembly is to observe the market in a state of no opinion. When you find that a change in the market fits with what you think is a technique, you can break down all the techniques into subtle actions. After reaching this stage, I think investors can rarely lose money.
This stage is followed by differentiation. Some investors will go for quick. Because when these techniques are broken down into individual actions, who will win? Of course, the quicker the higher the profit, or the easier it is for him to survive in this market. Therefore, at this stage, seeking fast is a genre, and some people have very quick judgments on this market and accumulate small profits. This method is very good, but it also has disadvantages. One is that I personally think that I am lazy and this thing is too tiring. It's hard work if you do it every day. The second is that it is not easy to control. The third is that it is difficult to achieve a large amount of single transaction. When you (operate) quickly, it is easy to make mistakes when some systemic problems occur in the market. Investors of this genre often encounter bottlenecks when the amount of funds is large. One bottleneck is that the market cannot accommodate your funds when the market fluctuates in a small range in the short term; the other bottleneck is that when you encounter systemic risks, it is the lowest point when you finish cutting.
After the second stage, there is another way, which is to gain momentum after you split the art. Taking momentum is the same for fundamentals and technicals. That is to say, whether it is fundamental or technical, it only describes an investment philosophy that everyone adopts after entering this state, which is to take advantage of trends. I have always believed that investors have reached the highest stage of market profitability for investors to take advantage of the situation. But taking power also has its disadvantages. If you deviate during the stage of gaining momentum, it may be more difficult to turn than those who seek speed. At this stage, very few people in the market can achieve it, but those who have achieved this stage are still "there are many stars and few birthday stars". I have been thinking recently, why are there so few birthday stars? Because I think futures and financial markets are the fastest-changing part of the world, faster than any other industry. This speed is not only reflected in the rapid price changes, but also in supply and demand, in the psychology of participants, and in various aspects. And this has also created the root on which everyone invests. Whether it is seeking quickness, taking advantage or arbitrage, this root will change, and the change will be huge. Even the most stable arbitrage in the futures market may undergo a huge change every three to five years. Once the root of your basis changes, you may lose money. This root cannot be changed by man's will. Once the root of a person's long-term basis changes, it is difficult for the person's will to change along with it.
An Indian Buddhist scholar reinterpreted Zhuangzi, saying that life is like a pendulum. I think the pendulum theory is more practical in the futures market than in explaining other aspects of life. People in the futures market will often experience the state of the pendulum. The concept of the pendulum is that the higher you swing, the harder you go back, without exception. That's why I think there are many stars in the market and few birthday stars. A star is only placed higher than ordinary people, but he also loses more miserably, because ordinary people cannot lose so much. This is the problem I think investors in the market still encounter after reaching the highest point, that is, they cannot escape the fate of the pendulum. People who have lived longer and better in this market will let the weight of the pendulum drop when it reaches the highest point. That is, when he thinks he is very successful, he will withdraw money. The more money he withdraws, the less force the pendulum will drop, and he can go higher. And when the pendulum falls or goes to the opposite side, add funds. I think the pendulum theory will be helpful to everyone at this time. The pendulum is based on inertia. If you make its pendulum heavier when you are at the highest point, it will not go up. Lose weight more when it is more brilliant, and find funds when it is lower.
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