I believe that everyone also feels the importance of review. I used to trade while going to work. I really didn’t have much time to do review. Later, I always made repeated mistakes in some places. Only then did I start the real road of review. Entering the review is as deep as the sea, and then I will share my own experience.
I divide the review into fundamental review and technical review.
(1) Fundamental review
The logic of currency and commodity is different. Commodity fundamentals involve upstream demand and downstream supply, while currency mainly studies the strength of the national economy.
A series of economic data of a country, such as unemployment rate, CPI, PCE, consumer confidence index, etc., all show the strength of a country's economy. For example, the unemployment rate is lower, the number of people employed is higher, business development is active, and the economy remains strong.
After these data show that the economy is strong or weak, they will receive external feedback from the government and the central bank. If the economic data has been strong, is there inflation in this country and does it need to raise interest rates? The economy has been sluggish. Is it necessary to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, in the form of direct purchase of debt or other forms? Basically all the major economic data we have seen can be fed back to the market through central bank speeches and interest rate decisions.
Therefore, when we review the fundamentals, we must first include the central bank's interest rate decision. For currencies with other attributes, such as the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc, I personally still prioritize monetary policy.
According to my personal observation, emergencies generally cause major fluctuations in the yen in a short period of time, but in the entire period of time, emergencies will not change the overall trend of the market. The overall fundamental review process is as follows:
1. Select all the interest rate resolutions of the country and mark them on the disk;
2. Find out the major events when the market has highs and lows other than interest rate resolutions;
3. For direct currencies, the Fed's interest rate decision and monthly non-agricultural data should be found and marked on the disk.
After completing the above three processes, if the remaining high and low points cannot be found out what major events have occurred, it is not necessary to find out everything in detail.
The reason to find out the Fed's interest rate resolution and monthly non-agricultural data is that what we are doing is not a single currency, but a group of currency pairs. Of course, it is not only the economy of one country that has an impact on this group of currency pairs. After we have completed the above three contents, we can see the impact of these fundamental news on the market, and if we use the fundamentals to judge the market, this process must be done by ourselves. Sometimes all kinds of remarks on the market are full of mouths to run the train, and it is very detrimental to individual traders to listen to others.
(2) Technical review
After we touch the technical indicators, we need to get them on the disk for verification. In the process of this verification, we must be clear about what is the purpose of our order?
This is a very critical point. We use technical indicators to assist us in making profits, rather than to verify what the indicators are saying by placing orders.
There are only a few points involved in order making: entry position, stop loss position, take profit position, increase position, and decrease position. Basically, these five points can be used on the board.
According to the above, we must first know what to do in the review. Applying it to the review means that we take the indicators we use and mark the first three points during the review. If you feel that the profit of a single entry without increasing the position is not enough, you can also mark the increase and decrease positions during the review.
Throughout the review, no matter how the market goes, the above points must be marked according to the technical indicators. You cannot choose the special trend of the market, but you should continuously verify this indicator day by day.
After we have made it clear what we want to do, the following are the two tasks we actually do:
1. Organize work:
After we have marked these points, in order to facilitate observation and statistical review results, my personal method is to put each screenshot on the PPT, and each picture is a fixed time period. In this way, it is convenient to compare the trend of each graph, and at the same time, watching it as a slideshow can increase our memory. If you need to clarify the relationship between different periods, you can also add a page of size and period comparison chart in the middle of each PPT for a fixed time period.
2. Verification work:
No matter how we review the market, there will always be some problems in the details, or we are not confident in the actual operation, or we are too confident. We all need to verify these issues. The verification process can be done with firm orders, or we can make a conclusive prediction of the real-time market trend, and compare the results of the first day's prediction the next day after making the prediction. After we do these two points repeatedly for a period of time, we will increase our execution power in the actual process.
In the actual process of making orders, it is impossible for us to use only one method to make orders, and they will be more or less mixed with each other. Even if we review the two separately, it is not difficult to combine them. I use the technical aspect far more than the fundamental aspect, so I avoid major data more, or increase the probability of judging the turning point of the technical aspect after interpreting the fundamental trend of the complete body. Everyone has their own preferences for technical and fundamental aspects. The above content is just my personal opinion, whether right or wrong.
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