The vast majority of futures traders are speculators, and different speculators show different realms in futures operations due to their differences in actual combat experience and differences in their comprehension of the rules of futures operations.
Speculators who have entered the first stage are characterized by making money when there is no market and losing money when there is a market. Such people are generally the best among novices. They have a clear understanding of the risks of futures before entering the futures market, have done sufficient theoretical preparations, and have a considerable degree of knowledge about various theories and methods of futures analysis and operation. Master, be extremely cautious when placing an order for the first time, so you can often make better profits in the early stage. With the increase of profits, their self-confidence will continue to rise. At this time, speculators can be said to have a glimpse of futures trading. When there is no market, speculators can make a lot of money by selling high and buying low in the oscillating range. Even if the direction is wrong, but because the price has not formed a trend, they can often unwind after waiting for a period of time. Once the market appears and the direction is reversed, the flaws of this kind of speculators will be fully exposed.
Due to the emergence of the market, the price began to move sharply in one direction, and speculators were deeply trapped, facing the choice of holding on to their positions or cutting them. Under the situation that once the position is cut, the theoretical loss will be turned into an actual loss and suffer huge losses, novices often fall into huge hesitation. The confidence fueled by past successes made them unwilling to admit their mistakes, mistook the emergence of price trends as an oscillation, and the fluke psychology of hoping that the price would come back one day prompted them to make a decision to stick to their positions, and even continue to increase their positions. Dilute the cost so that the set can be untied as soon as possible when the price pulls back. But the reality is that the situation is often getting deeper and deeper, and the price will never return, which will eventually lead to liquidation. Countless speculators have been submerged in the waves of the futures market in this way. Nick Leeson of Barings Bank is a typical example. At the beginning, it was profitable repeatedly, but it was completely lost in a huge loss. This is the general law of weeding out novices in the futures market. Therefore, learning to cut positions, "not afraid of mistakes, but afraid of procrastination" is the first rule of survival in the futures market. Those who fail to pass this level will never enter a higher realm, nor can they gain a long-term foothold in the futures market.
The characteristic of speculators who have entered the second state is that they make money when there is a market and lose money when there is no market. At this time, speculators have realized that "the market is always right" and have learned to operate with the trend. Once the direction is reversed, they dare to admit their mistakes and can cut their positions in time, so there will be no fatal losses. When the direction is right, the position will be maintained and considerable profits can be obtained. Such people can survive in the futures market for a long time, and most of them are successful in the futures market. But when the market is not moving, such people often lose money. This happens because they tend to act on price oscillations as if they were trends. This kind of speculator knows how to grasp the timing of opening a position, and generally establishes a position when the market breaks through the consolidation pattern, so as to bear as little market risk as possible. But the problem is that many price breakthroughs are not real market breakthroughs, but a manifestation of price oscillation rather than the formation of a trend. Therefore, in this case, they tend to buy at the high level of the oscillation range and sell at the low level of the oscillation range. Once they find that their judgment is wrong, they will quickly liquidate their positions. Therefore, when there is no market in the market, this kind of repeated liquidation of positions by speculators due to misjudgment will also cause considerable losses. Real futures masters are mostly conservatives in their operations. They know that if you do too much, you will lose, and you don't have to seize every opportunity. The only thing that is not lacking in the futures market is opportunity. Only those who are not in a hurry and are good at discriminating can enter a higher realm.
Speculators who can enter the third realm can be called masters. Their characteristic is that they don’t make any moves at ordinary times. Once the opportunity comes, they will take advantage of the situation and rise up, setting off huge waves in the futures market and obtaining huge profits. Such people firmly believe that "the market is always wrong", they often turn a blind eye to the daily fluctuations in futures prices, and patiently wait for the market to go to extremes. When the deviation of the market develops to the limit and the further development of the trend is unsustainable, they will build positions against the trend, bet a huge amount of chips, and then use the fundamentals to create themes and promote the reversal of the market. Most of these people will sell at the top of the market and buy at the bottom of the market. They dare to seize the opportunity by the throat, fully explore the potential of the opportunity, and obtain unimaginable returns with huge positions. What they do is just like the legendary Xiao Li Flying knives, where the light shines, and a sword to seal the throat, Soros is an outstanding representative. For people in this realm, people in the futures are "the mountains look up, the scenery stops, although they can't get there, they yearn for it."
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