Many people have been ups and downs in the futures market for many years, but they have always failed to make breakthroughs. This situation is mostly due to the fact that a lot of time is spent on the selection, optimization, verification, abandonment, and selection of trading technology. In a vicious cycle. If you are also at this stage now, please read this article carefully, I hope it can be helpful to you.
In the final analysis, the constant replacement of trading methods lies in the distrust of technology, and this kind of hesitation stemming from human nature is just a tool for trading technology to enslave market participants. In other words, traders should choose the technical methods that suit them. Participating in the market, but in fact, because of my own hesitation and swing, I am running around switching and trying various methods. If you want to get rid of the embarrassing position of a "slave" of trading technology, you must make changes in your perception of technology.
1. Is futures trading really technically credible?
From a technical point of view, the futures market is an existence full of contradictions, and there are no definite conclusions about everything, but it provides us with a powerful perspective-to use phenomena to discover probability and explain phenomena with probability. Therefore, it is meaningless to simply demonstrate whether the trading technology is credible. After all, the problem of probability cannot be characterized with an either-or attitude. Therefore, when we evaluate the effectiveness of a trading method, we must place it in the entire trading system, just like discussing cooking. Is peppercorns useful? It depends on what kind of food you make. Naturally, it is not used in porridge, but it is indispensable in spicy hot pot.
Having said so much, now let's determine the two aspects that require correct cognition: 1. What kind of personality tendencies do you have, and how does the trading system form? 2. What are the trading technologies and how to choose?
The first question requires you to calm down and remember. Is your personality biased towards radicalism in your life? Or slightly conservative? Are you good at grasping the internal logic in judging things? Or is it very sensitive to changes in appearance? This determines the proportion of technical analysis and fundamental research in your trading system, and also determines whether you are more inclined to short-term or long-term holdings.
In addition, you also need to understand what are the strengths and weaknesses of your target trading system, and do you want to take advantage of the profit-loss ratio? Or do you have an advantage in terms of winning percentage? Only in this way can you know with certainty what entry standards and exit standards you should set, and at the same time, what mode of fund management should you choose.
I can help you sort out and reflect on the above aspects of your own trading system, but the specific details and results of reflection need to be analyzed by yourself. Remember to be honest with yourself about this process and be as detailed as possible.
The second question is what are the trading techniques? Here are some examples for your reference on this issue:
Market research and judgment: turtle trading method, wave theory, pattern trading method, indicator change method;
Fund management: Monte Carlo simulation, historical simulation, capital ratio;
Risk management: electronic risk control system, manual risk control system (discipline), third-party risk control system.
It can be seen from this that trading techniques can be described as complicated, and the key lies in how to choose a trading method that suits you, and at the same time how to set specific entry points, stop loss and stop profit? This must follow a fundamental principle: profit. Trading techniques are like punching, no matter what, the purpose is to hit others, at least not to be hit by others. Carefully analyze the characteristics of each trading method, and summarize the winning rate and profit-loss ratio of the trading method from the historical market, so as to determine the trading method that suits you. Once you determine that a certain method has positive expectations, then do not change it easily .
2. Doubts about trading technology
In fact, the above process is easier said than done. Many people will have the following two questions about trading technology: Why are there contradictions between many trading technologies? I have determined a method, but why the performance is up and down? It is precisely because of these two doubts that lead to frequent replacement of trading methods, wasting one's money and energy in useless work.
Different people have different understandings of the market, and every method that is recognized as effective in the market is also a summary made by the predecessors based on their own trading experience, so naturally there will be many contradictions . In other words, different people follow different "Taos", and the "skills" derived from different "Taos" are naturally also different. Just like the theories of hundreds of schools of thought in the Spring and Autumn and Warring States periods conflict with each other, but this does not affect those in power to choose the best.
As for why the performance reflected by a trading system is up and down, it is actually easy to understand. The market is changing and erratic, but the method is fixed, which will inevitably lead to the phenomenon that you cannot make permanent profits, but this does not prove that the method you choose is wrong.
When it comes to trading technology, what we should pay attention to is not its value, but to know exactly what we need and how to use it. Only in this way can you dominate your own transactions and stop doing trading technology." servant".
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