It's been a long time since I came to Huihu. I read a few articles today, and the more I read, the more I feel that I have deviated from the way of trading. Maybe it's a sudden feeling, write some of your own opinions.
Some people say that trading depends on long-term investment, and short-term trading cannot make long-term profits, which is a hopeless approach. In fact, I personally disagree with this point of view. From my personal point of view, whether the transaction can be stable and profitable depends on fund management, technical analysis, and mentality management, all of which are indispensable.
In terms of trading purposes, we are all about making money. In addition to foreign exchange, I also operate futures and stocks. I personally think that compared with the latter, foreign exchange has the characteristics of low cost and flexible trading, but it also has the disadvantages of slow trend and long-term volatility. Therefore, to do foreign exchange trading, you must first be able to endure loneliness, whether it is signal selection or patience in holding positions.
Closer to home. If we want to make money in trading in long and short trading cycles, we must first have the principle of consistency in signal screening, entry rules, patient positions, and exits under any circumstances. Otherwise, stable profitability can only be an unattainable luxury.
In terms of technical analysis, we must first adhere to the identification of the trend direction, and look for opportunities to enter the market after a callback from the trend; only then can we talk about holding positions and exiting the market. For high-probability signals, we must hold positions firmly. For low-probability opportunities, when the predetermined target is reached or the callback is too large, we should decisively exit the market, so that we can say that we can cut losses and let profits run.
Let's analyze through an example, the identification of a high probability signal. For example, in the daily chart of the euro for a certain period of time in the figure below (not the recent chart), we should be able to identify this as a downward trend at a glance (the red line is not a trend line, and I personally do not use any indicators). But at the white arrow, it has been in an upward trend, but this upward trend has not broken through the key resistance at "1", it has only risen to the area of the downward trend. Therefore, we cannot conclude that this is a reversal trend. In terms of trading ideas, we should look for short-selling opportunities.
The white box is the focus of our discussion. There has been a decline at the resistance point (a callback against its own upward trend). Whether this callback should be a callback in the upward trend or a downward trend before restarting, we cannot be sure during the session. However, the down move we see on the daily chart should first be identified as the start of a renewed down move. Therefore, we must take advantage of this opportunity. If we can get out smoothly, we should firmly hold short positions until the resistance of the analysis cycle is broken.
Then, let's look at the 4-hour chart (analysis period). After falling below the support, there will be a callback, but it still cannot reach a new high and the negative line will appear again. We should look for short-selling signals based on the long-term trend of the daily chart, and hold positions firmly. It can be seen from the figure that the upward callback in this downward trend has never been able to break through the resistance of the trend. Every time the callback ends, it is a new opportunity to enter the market, or an opportunity to increase positions. Only in this way can we maximize profits.
As for the operating cycle (15-minute chart), I don’t think I need to say more about this, and everyone is very familiar with it. Even if you stop the loss because of the deep market routine, you should enter the market again and hold firmly when the right opportunity arises. .
The above are the short-term analysis ideas within the day, but the 4-hour analysis cycle can hold positions for up to four weeks. So, I would like to ask the teacher who published the so-called "short-term cannot make stable profits and has no future", is this considered short-term or long-term?
Written at the end -
Doing transactions is more difficult than any traditional business; the buying and selling of transactions is not only a game between funds, but also a game of human nature.
Therefore, we must not only have the ability to analyze independently, not be disturbed by traders with different trading ideas, but also have the herd mentality when the trend changes. Only in this way can profits be maximized.
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