The market is flat, I have nothing to do, I write an essay, showing off my experience.
We often hear this kind of advice in life: "Don't try to take shortcuts in doing things. Only by step-by-step and down-to-earth work can you gain something." Follow the development law of things and reasonably construct ways and means to solve problems. It can be said that this is a shortcut to success, so this advice is indeed good advice. However, the shortcuts mentioned in this article are different from the shortcuts in the previous advice. In the futures market, drawing on the experience and lessons of the predecessors, properly mastering the methods and skills of futures trading, and abandoning many bad habits in the market can also achieve twice the result with half the effort , It can be regarded as a shortcut to success in the futures market.
Shortcut 1: Know the value range of commodities
For traders who are new to the market, in a sense, there is no essential difference between many varieties, because they know little about the characteristics of each variety. In the technical analysis charts, what they see are actually "chaotic" K-line fluctuations. Where to start and how to find a more suitable time to intervene are objective problems faced by novices. Or he is at a loss and worried about missing hot opportunities, or the ignorant is fearless and just buys and sells blindly. He is dejected when he fails, and ecstatic when he succeeds. These are the initial and truest inner portrayals of "futures market novice".
In fact, during this period or a period of time, traders do not have a solid foundation and a clear understanding of the market. They can also use the K-line charts of different cycles to understand the current "commodity value" of the products they are concerned about or plan to buy. Location. For example, traders themselves know nothing about oils and fats, but they can systematically determine the current value range of oils and fats by comparing the weekly and monthly levels of soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil, so as to achieve Get a technical overview of the product. This simplest method of observing K-line charts can avoid, to a certain extent, doing a lot of long positions at absolute high levels, and massive shorting at absolute low levels, so as to give some guidance to upcoming transactions at the most basic level of commodity value orientation. But this kind of guidance is only superficial and relative. For novices who are new to the market, it is also meaningful to define the market state superficially. It can avoid blindly entering the market and cause heavy losses, and it is also a shortcut.
Shortcut 2: Understanding the Fluctuation Law of Commodity Prices
For traders who have certain trading experience or have conducted in-depth research on the futures market, they have their own understanding and cognition of the periodicity, price operation rules, fluctuations and other attributes of related futures varieties. Traders who are new to the market can also fully understand the operation rules of the commodity price through the historical market trend of the commodity, especially it is very necessary to conduct an in-depth study of a complete period of ups and downs. Through the records of historical trends, statistics of fluctuation intervals, rough calculation of volatility, switching styles of each cycle, etc., it does not take too much time to have a general understanding of related varieties.
In fact, the process of gradually accumulating trader feeling is the process of gradually becoming familiar with and deepening the understanding of varieties, and there is no shortcut. The shortcut mentioned here is to be familiar with and understand the price fluctuation laws of related products first, grasp the general direction, and make basic preparations for better grasping entry, adding and subtracting positions, and exiting the market in the future. When a trader is very familiar with a certain product, once there is a change in the market, he will perceive it in advance. The sensitivity of the perception depends on his usual efforts. Of course, this is a relatively long process.
Shortcut 3: Identify and process market information
With the continuous enrichment of varieties in the futures market, the industrial chain built by futures varieties has become more comprehensive and complex, which also puts forward higher requirements for the personal quality and information processing ability of futures traders. In particular, traders who combine futures and cash, hedging, and basis trading face a more complex environment and more severe tests. For ordinary individual traders and novices who are new to the market, it is much more difficult to accept and process a large amount of information from the futures and spot markets. Is there any shortcut to moderately avoid these deficiencies or shortcomings? matter of great concern.
First of all, the source of information must be true and effective, and the timeliness and importance must also be determined, and an attitude of cautious screening should be maintained for rumors and gossip.
Secondly, for important data and data release time, traders can build a small "database" according to their personal energy and ability, and make records to facilitate comparison and simple analysis.
Finally, one must have a certain understanding of the industry chain of related varieties, and the correlation between varieties must be moderately clear. Under one's own analysis system, one can find clues of the market movement through the mutual evidence of futures and spot data of related varieties.
Shortcut 4: Key Reports from Key Research Institutions
At present, there are so many paid and free market research and development reports, good and bad are mixed, and they are justified by the public and justified by the mother-in-law. Putting them together often gives traders a dilemma and headache. How to view the analysis of various investment institutions on the market, it is very important to use valuable analysis reports for your own use.
First of all, after receiving various R&D reports, don't rush to see the results, let alone draw conclusions, you should pay attention to and carefully analyze the logic in the reports. The important data in the report, especially the processed scarce data, can be focused on, and can also be correlated and grafted with its own analysis system. A clear understanding of the analysis context and derivation logic of the report is more important than the conclusion of the report itself.
Secondly, the research depth and accuracy of various investment institutions and information consulting companies are different for different varieties. You should be able to understand by listening to the advice of your predecessors or reading and comparing for a certain period of time. You must deeply understand and study the key reports of key institutions. , to find out the tendency.
Finally, through the comparison and logical analysis of different types of reports, different conclusions can be drawn, and then differentiated analysis can be carried out according to their own deduction, so as to obtain more comprehensive data, market operation logic and other information.
To sum up, one is to screen varieties through the simplest technical analysis; own judgment. These four shortcuts allow traders, especially those who are new to the market, to quickly understand the varieties, formulate trading strategies and implement them in an orderly and steady manner.
Code words are not easy, I hope it can inspire your transaction.
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