The perspective is different, the things you see are different.
If it is determined to be an industry trend, then the involution of each sector is not the main contradiction.
Looking back at that year, when the mobile Internet wave came, what we think of now must be what it subverted and reshaped, rather than how much money was diverted from a certain sector.
The real risk is the misjudgment of the trend itself.
Any market round, if it is truly confirmed to be an industry trend, it often shows a kind of resilience in the middle of the trend.
Experts called for a suspension of upgrades. Italy suspended the upgrade on Thursday morning and said that users in some areas could not use it... As a result... is this kind of resilient response to adverse news new?
Nothing new!
In the past two days, I watched a video of "comparison of the use of several large models", and I deeply felt that the impact of AI on life has already come, and the era of everyone having an AI assistant has arrived.
Industry trends bring about market trends. The law of trend movement is that in the early stage of no formation, it looks cheap, but is actually fragile and tangled. In the middle of the trend has been formed, it seems to be turbulent, but it is full of rules.
Just like the 21-year lithium battery industry, the 21-year section of the lithium battery index in the figure below.
Is it like an invisible hand dragging near the purple 20-day moving average?
"Taking cheapness as belief" and "taking trends as belief" are not a kind of power at all, but neither is right or wrong.
Those who regard cheapness as their belief will fall enough and be inconsistent enough. However, when the trend is regarded as a belief, what is valued is the potential energy of the market movement.
That potential energy is a sense of security. In a violent trend market, even if there is a single-day fluctuation, you can predict that the power of the trend will counterattack crazily. That kind of off-track movement, even if it rises, can't make people feel at ease. Even if it falls very low, it will not make people feel excited.
In the moment of great divergence recently. Trend investing pays more attention to positions than opinions. Opinions are often linked to personal self-esteem. However, the purpose of investing in the stock market is to make a profit. Opinions are important, but positions are profitable. Both 10% and 90% positions can actually make money. It's just that the strength of optimism is different from judging the current probability.
Absolutely bearish and bullish, in the end it is often just a dispute of opinions!
The market turnover has reached 1.3 trillion. After the end of the lithium battery market in 2021, only one day in February last year reached this amount. But there was no trending market in February last year.
From this point of view, this 1.3 trillion needs to be very visual.
Clearly the market has become more active. Through the fluctuation of net worth, it can also be inferred that institutional investors have adjusted their positions a lot.
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