Under the analysis of the hot new energy vehicle sector in the market, the most popular leading battery company, XXXX, has a current market value of 340 billion yuan;
We assume that in ten years, the global penetration rate of electric vehicles will be 50% (currently less than 2%, which is a very optimistic assumption), the company's market share will reach 30%, the price of single-vehicle batteries will be 25,000 yuan, and the profit margin in the mature period will be 8. %. Based on our optimistic assumptions, the company's net profit is about 70 million * 50% * 30% * 25,000 * 8% = 21 billion yuan
The valuation of PE is 15 times. For mature auto parts companies, 15 times is a reasonable valuation. Considering that battery technology changes rapidly and may be subverted at any time, and downstream customers are highly concentrated, 15 times valuation is completely reasonable.
Then the company's valuation is 21 billion yuan * 15 = 315 billion yuan. If discounted by ten years, today's market value should be below 150 billion yuan.
It is not ruled out that the company's stock price will continue to rise, but it is no longer driven by fundamentals, and sooner or later it will return to normal valuations.
Second case:
The world's largest auto glass manufacturer xxxx has a market share of 70% in China and nearly 35% in the global market. The value of a single car is 1,000 yuan. It has an excellent management team and a global team. Its net profit is about 18%. The business model may be subverted Sex is very low. The market value is 61.5 billion yuan.
You can use this case to see the market value of companies in our new energy automobile industry chain and electronics industry chain. Many of them exceed or approach the world leader in automotive glass, and you can intuitively feel how much bubble there is.
It is impossible for the stock price to exceed the value for too long and too long, and it will eventually return in various forms.
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