Since when did you feel that trading is not that complicated?

Thank you Mi Xiaoquan for your invitation.

The realm of trading is like the realm of life:
the first level: see mountains as mountains, see water as water;
second level: see mountains as mountains, see water as water;
third level: see mountains as Mountains, look at the water or water.

When we first entered the market, we were at the first level, and we all felt that trading was very simple, and it was often easy to make a profit.
However, gradually they will be taught by the market and start paying tuition. At this time, we realized that trading is not easy, so we started to learn, all kinds of theories, various forums, and websites were all caught up. At this time, you will feel that the transaction is very complicated, but you are now in the second level.
When you have formed your own stable trading system, you will enter the third stage, at this time you will feel that trading is not complicated. As long as you abide by your own trading system, you will do the market that belongs to you, and take a short position if the market that does not belong to you.

But after reaching the third stage, can he be carefree so far? Then think of the transaction too simply. Not complicated doesn't mean it's not difficult.
Trading is hard at all times. What is difficult is the uncertainty of the market and the complexity of human nature.

There will never be certainty in this market, so you must think probabilistically. Only with probabilistic thinking can you do a good job in trading, so you know that you can never take a heavy position-take a light position, and always stop the loss-if you are not resistant to orders. This is the first condition for you to survive in this market, and it is precisely this that kills many people, and many people are looking for certainty.

Then there is the complexity of human nature. Even if you have a stable trading system, you should know that no system can win every battle. When the market slaps you one after another, can you still stick to your system?
And after you have made stable profits for a period of time, can you still be as calm as before? A lot of things happen so subtly that you don't realize it.
The most difficult thing in life is to "overcome yourself", and this is especially important in trading. Most people can't pass this level, even the genius Jesse Livermore is no exception.

I myself started to make steady profits in the fifth year of entering this market, and at that time I already understood that trading is not complicated. And got back the hundreds of thousands of losses in the initial market entry, and realized a part of the profit. And it was precisely at this time that the funds began to withdraw again. Then I realized that maybe my xinxing needs to be controlled. After that, I seldom read trading books, but read a lot of philosophy and mind books.
And in the next two or three years, I have gained more life awareness than all the days I have gone through before. Only when you control your mind, what you see is another realm. However, the road of practice has no end, so trading will always be "difficult".

I hope you will not be discouraged, have some understanding, and move towards a better trading realm.

       Why do you feel that the transaction is more complicated? Those who say this must be traders who often perform short-term operations, and it will be relatively easy for those who operate in the medium and long-term or swing trends, because they do not need to exchange frequent transactions for profit returns.

       Short-term trading feels a little complicated among some novice friends, but it is not difficult, but everyone does not know the reason. Let me explain in detail the principle of short-term trading.

　　Short-term trading strategy, first of all, it is not recommended for everyone to do short-term trading. Successful short-term traders are relatively rare in the market. Short-term seems to have quick returns and low risk, but frequent transactions increase costs and the possibility of unexpected market errors, so I would like to warn everyone not to do short-term at the beginning, of course, there are still certain operating techniques for short-term.

　　Let’s talk about the winner’s mentality and trading strategy first. Winners only have rules in their eyes, and losers often have surprises in their hearts. Mentality is very important to trading. In most traders, there is little prior training, and the consequence is that they have exhausted their scarcest money and confidence before possible profits come. Winner Behavior Patterns: Discovery is Action; Decision Basis: Rely on and Believe in Signals. Behavior pattern of losers: see and talk; decision-making basis: skeptical signal, common thinking is: what if it fails? Market result: loss.

　　Carefully study the use of small-band trading strategies to make profits, you may need three tools: 15-minute K-line chart, two moving averages of different periods 7MA and 17MA, personally think that 7 is a variable, every 7 in the speculative market will change, And 17 is half of the sum of 13 and 21, that is, half of 34 is also a variable. As for the averages recognized by the market such as 5MA, 10MA, and 20MA, I basically don’t use them. I don’t think most investors like them. Just the best, quite the opposite. For the BOLL channel indicator, the average line in the middle is set to 17, and the orbit variance is set to 1.9 to analyze more accurately. The moving average may be one of the first practical technical indicators to come into contact with. The cycle can be long or short. Long has long benefits, and short has short benefits. There are two quantities that can be determined in the market: time and price. Only these two quantities will not deceive people and will never change. The moving average can be said to be a unity of time and price. 

　　The essence of short-term operation is to avoid the risk of long-term positions and obtain short-term profits. This method is not a method for making a lot of money through trading, but only through small-band operations when the general environment is full of variables. Fast in and fast out to earn A small difference, usually like 20 points. Before starting a certain trading session, look at the 1-hour or 4-hour K-line chart to get the trend at the transition of the session and how it might go when the new session starts. Using the moving average, set a 7-period moving average and a 17-period moving average on the 15-minute K-line chart. When you see the 7-period moving average crossing the 17-period moving average, it is a long-order signal. If you see the 7-period moving average crossing the 17-period moving average The period moving average must be resolutely closed, and the method of empty orders is the opposite. The 7 moving average is used for buying and selling, and the 17 moving average is used for stop loss. Only look at the 5-minute K-line chart when you absolutely need to know what's going on behind the 15-minute K-line chart, especially if the K-line is elongated or has just crossed the moving average, It has not been reflected on the minute K-line chart. Don't stay on the 5 minute candlestick because it has too much noise.

　　The rule of thumb on the 15-minute K-line chart is that even if the EMA is up on the 1-hour K-line chart, if it is down on the 15-minute K-line chart, it suggests that a reversal is coming, but it hasn't happened yet. At the same time, I don't want to miss what is happening on the 15-minute K-line chart. If the moving average is down on the 15-minute K-line chart, but the price wants to rise, the price will go down sooner or later, for example, it will be reversed by the moving average rebound or the captured node. The same is true for the situation where the moving average goes up and the price wants to go down. Try to use the deviation of the moving average instead of the moving average as a buying and selling signal. After all, the moving average is a delayed indicator. For small-band operations, the deviation of the moving average on the 15-minute K-line chart is more important than that on the 1-hour K-line chart. The moving average moves in the opposite direction to the price movement. If the price falls below the 17 moving average, you must stop loss, stop loss is more important than profit.

　　The first factor is not overnight. The short-term is most afraid of becoming a long-term overnight order. If it is decided to be a short-term order, it must be closed within a day. No matter whether you win or lose, you will be caught or not. , not long lasting. The second element is that the position should be light. Short-term means fast changes, so we must control the risk. At present, the position can be adjusted freely between 5% and 25%, and it is not suitable for heavy positions. The third element is that short-term trading cannot be done every day. Although short-term trading is short, it does not mean that it must be done every day. The fourth element is that the short-term is not long-term. The short-term is a super means to exercise traders, but it is not the final means. In the end, short-term traders will evolve into trend and other types of traders. Short-term is just a means of getting started.

Transactions should be as simple as possible. If you think trading is complicated, it is not that the market has become complicated, but that you think it is complicated.

We have all experienced trading as the topic owner said, which can be roughly divided into three stages: ① When we first entered the market, we felt that the market is not difficult. There are not thousands of stocks like the stock market, nor Like futures, there are only a few mainstream varieties, and it will not be very complicated when choosing trading commodities. ② Slowly, the deeper you get in touch, the greater your desire to make money, and you see the huge profit potential of the market, and study various indicators and technical analysis tools. From fundamentals to technical aspects, from moving averages to KD... If you want to exhaust all trading techniques and understand every wave of market conditions, your trading becomes complicated. ③ Later, I deeply understood the nature of the market and the nature of transactions. Give up the previous ideas, the enthusiasm for trading is exhausted by the market, try to build your own trading system, and only earn the money you can earn. Then trading becomes easier.

Basically, this is the mental journey of our traders, without exception, we all come here like this. Cognition requires a process, and transactions also need to be experienced.

In fact, I have always felt that the market is not complicated, and the complexity is created by ourselves. We all know what kind of role human nature plays in trading, and why it is said that trading is anti-human. If you want to make money in the market, you must know how to restrain yourself, restrain your idea of ​​making money every time, restrain your idea of ​​getting rich in a short time, and restrain your obsession with the best technical analysis methods in the world.

For example, on the daily chart cycle, using two moving averages to trade, the golden cross is more dead than empty. You can try it and see if you can make money. I have experienced it myself. It is completely profitable to use this method. There are only a few opportunities a year, and the positions are usually held for a long time. There will be trends and shocks in the market. The overall result is to make money, so Don't you understand the simple truth? Of course I understand, but few people do this. You can think about it, why do so few people do it?

The root cause of complex transactions lies in people, and human desires make their transactions more complicated.

Therefore, I think a very good way to change this situation is planned transactions. Make your transactions more organized, and conduct transactions in a controlled and planned manner. Knowing when to do what, the best state is that when you open the board every day, you subconsciously know what to do. What to do in the first step...What to do in the second step...Third..., let your transaction be like producing a commodity, and execute it for a long time and patiently.

The above is my view on this issue. As for how to build a trading system, write it when you have time, or go to Huihu to see other people's ideas for building a system, hoping to help you.

In terms of difficulty, trading is actually very difficult. But in terms of complexity, the transaction is actually not complicated.

If I had to say it, I found it complicated at the beginning. But after clarifying, the complexity plummets. Because of the optimization of the entire trading system, it is simple to delete the complicated.

When you first started trading, you might still be able to make money, in a daze, or even make a lot of money. At this time, I feel that the transaction is not so complicated.

After a period of time, after being taught a few times by the market, I realized my ignorance, so I found books by myself and went to the forum to learn. With various indicators and various uses, it suddenly feels that the transaction is very complicated.

The result is that the more you learn, the more you lose money, and you will lose money no matter what you do. Losing money has become a normal state until you lose all your funds. At this time, it is no longer complicated to describe it, it is like a book from heaven, and it is almost suspicious of life.

At this time, slowly learn from losses, slowly correct, and slowly build your own trading framework. This time should be the most complicated feeling.

When you have a system, opening a position is your first step, because opening a position is either missed or too early, or you will face stop loss after opening a position, and you will be afraid when you face a loss. If you are timid and dare not enter the order, you must overcome your fear. It's not that complicated here, because the framework has already been built, just follow the steps. It is not easy to use, that is because there is still a problem and needs to be repaired.

Stop loss, stop loss is even more difficult, because it is possible to stop the loss and the price will come back, or it is possible to continue to lose without stopping the loss, and it is impossible to do the best. This time is another period of self-doubt.

Stop loss is not only a loss, but more importantly, a blow to you, a psychological blow. Can you be very rational and not trade retaliatoryly? Do you still have the courage to open a position when you face the opportunity to open a position again? If the stop loss can be done well, basically no loss can be achieved, which is also a sign of entry. Stop loss, once there is a mature system, the stop loss becomes clearly visible: when to stop the loss, when the loss is temporary, and when to stop the loss to chase after the order.

Here comes the question, what if you are not given a chance to stop the loss? For example, institutions take extreme measures, opening sharply higher or lower, or diving sharply, leaving you too late to stop losses. Once a person stops losing control, there will be a kind of gamble, let it go, let the loss continue to expand, and finally the amount of emotional breakdown. You start to regret that you didn't stop the loss in time. Stop loss has become more important in your mind, so there is a slight price rebound, and you will stop loss. This is the result that other organizations want, washing dishes.

The problem comes again, that is, the stop loss back and forth, which is also a problem for many people. As soon as the loss is stopped, the price comes back;

Stop loss is inevitable, because no one can be right. If you want to make money, you can only rely on less stop loss and more stop profit, or small stop loss and big profit. Finally, when encountering extreme market conditions, there must be means to deal with them. Therefore, once the problem of stop loss is solved, it proves that your system has also been improved, and the stop loss can be achieved and implemented, and you will not lose money, which also means getting started.

As long as you have gone through the first and second steps, you will find, "Hey, you can basically make no losses", and you will gradually become confident. When you lose money, you are equally confident, and you can even lose money. Turn stop loss into profit.

Three steps, you have patience, you can be patient for several days without opening an order, once you seize the opportunity, you can attack continuously, you have found the so-called rhythm, you can wait for the opportunity to open a position with the smallest stop loss , Faced with a stop loss, you can cut it without hesitation.

At this time, I feel that the transaction is actually not that complicated. But it's hard.

In fact, trading has always been a very simple matter, a process of buying and selling. Of all the jobs in life, you can't find any simpler operation than this thing, right? In fact, these are all appearances. In fact, currency trading feels complicated because it is not easy to make money in this market. The reason for this is because I haven't found a suitable method or trading system. After I have this thing, the rest is just mechanical execution. Wouldn't it be much simpler?

In fact, it is too simple to make money from currency trading, so simple that it is unbelievably simple. The answer is nothing more than two points. The foreign exchange market is swaying freely.

In fact, trading is the same as doing business. To make money, you only need two conditions. One is timing and the other is investment. Actual combat, magnify the benefits, remember, it is a part of the cost, not the whole net worth, because there are exceptions to everything, so you have to leave some room. Be optimistic, the timing is to choose the right time to enter the market, and the investment is to use a small cost to leverage a big profit, so that even if you lose, you will lose a little, and if you win, you will win a lot, and you can also win in the overall series You have an advantage in the game. As long as you have an advantage in probability and statistics, you can increase your amount, and your advantage will be displayed with the accumulation of time and amount.

Furthermore, it is to use small to gain big and small, which includes two aspects, one is light storage (low cost), and one is small and large stop loss points, which includes two aspects, one is to leverage large profits, and the other is large Profit points. To sum up, in a word, it is to use small position costs and stop loss points to place bets. If you lose, you will lose a little, and if you win, your income will be magnified.

As long as your own trading system can achieve the above two points, you will not find it complicated when trading in this market.

First of all, I think it is still necessary to know why the transaction is complicated. As the questioner said, the more you know, the more complicated it feels to trade. When I first entered the market, I felt that trading was very simple. The more you know, the more you lose.

The reasons for the complexity are changeable, mainly from the two perspectives of the market and yourself.

1. Market

Anyone who has done trading knows that the market is an uncertain market, and no one can know how the price will go tomorrow. And the price rises and falls on a daily basis is also different. The same news, the same non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, the price of gold rose last month and fell this month, so we don’t know how gold will go next month. The news is consistent, but prices are mixed. Invisibly increased the difficulty of our transactions.

The same support resistance level, the same previous high. Sometimes it works well and sometimes it doesn't. Without knowing the reason, it is difficult to form a fixed standard in the next transaction. That is to say, it is difficult for us to judge what factors will affect the support and pressure level and lead to different price behaviors.

The market is completed by people, and people have been unpredictable since ancient times. We have no idea what other people are thinking. Facing the same market trend, there may be different ideas. This is also the source of uncertainty in the market.

The market is complex and changeable, and cannot be measured linearly.

2. myself

The market exists objectively, and we cannot change the market's thinking with our own ideas. Even the top investment banks in the world can hardly change a market as large as the foreign exchange market.

The main factor that complicates our trading is that we have different depths and ways of understanding the market. Some people think that the market conforms to the wave theory, and any market cannot break away from the scope of the wave theory. And some people think that the wave theory is misinterpreting the market, the market may not necessarily run in the form of 8 waves, and so on. It is precisely because there are differences in the perspectives of many transactions looking at the market (this difference must exist, there will be no market fluctuations without differences), so there is no reference standard for our analysis, and the Eight Immortals have shown their magic.

The use of technical analysis tools such as indicators adds our own complexity. Perhaps the market is simple, but we are the ones who are complicated. Use MACD to trade today, use RSI as the basis tomorrow, and start playing naked K the day after tomorrow. All kinds of technical indicators are involved, and all kinds of analysis methods are known. In the end, not only did not fully grasp the technical analysis, but it also made my trading more confusing. When MACD and RSI want to conflict, they cannot choose the judgment criteria and so on.

People's hearts are not enough to swallow elephants. I also want to hold long-term positions, but also want to trade orders in the short-term. I don't have a fixed system and standards for my own transactions. It is still delusional to seize all the profits in the market, and there have been continuous losses. Instead of looking for reasons from themselves, they use the complexity of the market as a scapegoat.

People are the most complicated, and the market will become complicated when people participate.

If you have a set of fixed transaction procedures, you know what to do and what not to do. Whether it is the judgment of the trend, the selection of points, or the management of funds, all aspects have their own trading standards. Do it when there is a signal, and don’t do it when there is no signal. Treat trading as a simple and repetitive habit. If things go on like this, you will find that trading is not so complicated.

So, try to build your own trading system, this is a powerful tool to make your trading easier.

Everything is from simple to complex, from complex to simple. This is a necessary process.

Find a set of your own basis for order making, a basis for order making that can be stable and profitable. It has been tested and tested in actual combat. Some people call it a system and others call it a rule. In short, it is your own basis for order making. Then convince yourself to trust him and rely on him.

Don't believe those mysterious tactics and secret indicators, they are just the basis for making orders. You can name your system and indicators "God-like indicators or God's hand".

Everyone has this experience. When you first start trading, you might still make money, make money in a daze, and even make a lot of money. After a period of time, after being taught a few times by the market, I realized my ignorance, so I found books by myself and went to the forum to learn. The result is that the more you learn, the more you lose money, and you will lose money no matter what you do. Losing money has become a normal state until you lose all your funds.

Stable loss is a habit, the more you do it, the more you lose, the market is the same as doing it right. A normal thing becomes your speculative weakness in speculation, as well as your inertial thinking and behavior, a series of factors, causing you stable losses, how to do what you lose.

You must have an effective price tracking system, and more importantly, a good fund management and risk control mechanism, treat transactions with a "dispersed" and "persistent" perspective, and have a long-term probability advantage in the speculative market, rather than putting all your eggs in one basket. That's what financial transactions are all about.

For most and normal people. Only after about 3 years of experience can you form your own system and rules before you get started. If you want to really make money, it will take about 2 years to transform the system into behavior. Therefore, most people, ordinary people, want to make money from trading. It takes about 5 years. It does not rule out that there are people who are lucky or extremely smart, or people who are guided by experts, or people who have sufficient funds and are not afraid of losses. , breaking this time frame. With the guidance of an expert, the road is the fastest shortcut, which is equivalent to the fastest way you have traveled for more than ten years, but the biggest problem is that such an expert is hard to come by, depending on fate.

The process of building a system, in simple terms, is divided into three steps: ① Once you have a system, opening a position is your first step, because opening a position is either missed, or it is too early, or you will face a stop loss after opening a position In the face of losses, you will be afraid, you will be afraid, you will be timid, and you will not dare to enter the order. You must overcome your fear.

②The second step is to stop the loss, which is even more difficult, because it is possible to stop the loss and the price will come back, or it is possible to continue to lose without stopping the loss, and it is impossible to do the best. Stop loss is not only a loss, but more importantly, a blow to you, a psychological blow. Can you be very rational and not trade retaliatoryly? Do you still have the courage to open a position when you face the opportunity to open a position again? If the stop loss can be done well, basically no loss can be achieved, which is also a sign of entry. Stop loss, once there is a mature system, the stop loss becomes clearly visible: when to stop the loss, when the loss is temporary, and when to stop the loss to chase after the order.

Here comes the question, what if you are not given a chance to stop the loss? For example, institutions take extreme measures, opening sharply higher or lower, or diving sharply, leaving you too late to stop losses. Once a person stops losing control, there will be a kind of gamble, let it go, let the loss continue to expand, and finally the amount of emotional breakdown. You start to regret that you didn't stop the loss in time. Stop loss has become more important in your mind, so there is a slight price rebound, and you will stop loss. This is the result that other organizations want, washing dishes.

The problem comes again, that is, the stop loss back and forth, which is also a problem for many people. As soon as the loss is stopped, the price comes back;

Stop loss is inevitable, because no one can be right. If you want to make money, you can only rely on less stop loss and more stop profit, or small stop loss and big profit. Finally, when encountering extreme market conditions, there must be means to deal with them. Therefore, once the problem of stop loss is solved, it proves that your system has also been improved, and the stop loss can be achieved and implemented, and you will not lose money, which also means getting started.

As long as you have gone through the first and second steps, you will find, "Hey, you can basically make no losses", and you will gradually become confident. When you lose money, you are equally confident, and you can even lose money. Turn stop loss into profit.

③ The third step is that you have patience. You can be patient without opening an order for several days. Once you seize the opportunity, you can attack continuously. You have found the so-called rhythm, and you can wait for the opening with the smallest stop loss. When faced with a stop loss opportunity, you can cut it without hesitation. Not only will you not feel sad, but you will be very happy.

After going through it, doing it based on feeling, looking for the system to do it randomly, and finally continuously precipitated it, forming its own trend order system, and constantly sharpened and precipitated. Now I can wait and dare to chase, and the order-making is becoming more and more mature.

Doing a transaction is actually very simple, just arrange a few phrases, if,, should,, then,, then,,,,

Personally, I am very emotional, so I have always denied that I have such a thing as a trading system, but I do have some habits that are not explicitly stipulated but strictly enforced.

In fact, doing transactions is simple and simple, and doing orders is not learning. Many people always think that trading requires high thinking and psychological quality, and shapes the outlook on life that the trader is a tall professional owner, but in fact, this is not the case.

In the face of money, many people tend to expose too many personality flaws in a very short period of time. Some seemingly insignificant problems in life will be magnified ten times in the face of money. A very simple truth needs to pay the price of losses In order to understand, and an investor loses money, it is often the initial stage when he is not aware of this problem. When you calm down to learn, understand, and turn yourself into an insider in this industry, you will be very close to making a profit. One month is fast, half a year is slow, and there are people who have been unable to make a profit after five or six years of trading. I have only heard of it but never seen it, and I am very incomprehensible.

From completely ignorant, only seeing huge profits, to orderly trading, investing rather than gambling, knowing that making money requires accumulation step by step, I think this is the whole set of logic that makes everything difficult at the beginning, and it is a process of conversion from a novice to an experienced driver . Many people fail on the road of novices, not because of how difficult the trading technology is, how abstruse those books are, and how difficult it is to understand the market changes. It is often just that they were misled when they were still beginners, and then lost their money. .

Whether a trader is correct or not is directly related to the gain or loss of property, but loss is not the only way for every novice.

Trading is simple, and trading analysis is also simple. Many people can do it but are unwilling to talk about it. It's not that they can't talk about it, but the public doesn't like to hear it. The public wants to listen to fundamentals, internal news, international market dynamics, superimposition of various technical indicators, analysis of long and short positions, price and time prediction...you must have a Ph.D. to write such a complicated analysis paper. These things can only fool newcomers, but for those who can do it, there is no need to explain too many reasons in a few words. The K-line shape is clear at a glance, and no amount of explanation is interesting. Doing transactions is far easier than predicting the future, analyzing history, and writing doctoral thesis.

The purpose of technical analysis is to understand the market, not for analysis. When we can effectively judge the market trend with simple methods, we will resolutely not complicate and use difficult methods.

The laws of the market will never change, the methods of technical analysis can also be used universally, and the trading methods of different products are also similar. As investors, we only need to use the same method to familiarize ourselves with the fluctuation habits of different products.

This complexity depends on how to understand it. If you do short-term frequent transactions, it is basically impossible to be very simple, because at that time the market is too random, and it is more a game of probability events. Of course, this is also related to the type of investment. Zero-sum market hype such as futures and currency trading, it is unrealistic to require them to be simple, because it is a game where you lose and I win.

But if you're investing in the stock market, there's great hope in pursuing simplicity, especially as value investing becomes increasingly popular among investors. Buying an index is a very realistic choice.

Index investment is to copy the index to form a stock portfolio as an asset allocation method, and to pursue the minimization of the tracking error between the portfolio and the index return rate as the performance evaluation standard. Its advantages lie in diversification of investment risks, low investment costs, pursuit of long-term returns and transparency of investment portfolios.

Due to various reasons, there is still a certain deviation in everyone's understanding of index returns, and they think that China's stock index does not make money. But these are clearly not true.

Take 19 years as an example. The A-share market as a whole is a small bull market. Even if you buy the index without thinking and hold the position, the highest return in one year will exceed 50%.

What's more, if you look at the index products managed by some star fund managers, you will find that many indexes can bring investors an annualized return of more than 10% in a period of more than 10 years. Win the so-called big market.

In principle, the profit of the index is also very simple. When an index company compiles an index, it has clear high standards for constituent stocks and maintains regular adjustments (usually twice a year). Therefore, the index can maintain long-term vitality and maintain the best combination in the market.

For example, in the past few decades, the top ten constituent stocks of the S&P 500 have changed from energy giants to current technology giants. According to statistics, during the decade from 2009 to 2019, the CSI 300 Index we are familiar with, a total of 405 different stocks were transferred into the index, and 379 stocks were transferred out of the index because they failed to meet the standards.

Of course, to achieve simplicity at the transaction level, it may be a bit difficult to screen index products in the world. At this time, it is enough to directly buy ETFs. Because ETFs invest passively by index weight, they perfectly track index performance. Also in 2019, domestic ETFs exploded in full swing, the number of funds reached 256, 97% of ETFs achieved positive returns, and 13 rose by more than 50%.

ETFs are usually about 100 yuan per lot, and the threshold for participation is not high. Such a transaction threshold is extremely friendly to retail investors.

In fact, for the simple and trouble-free investment of buying an index, Buffett has long given advice to working dogs. In 2008, at the Berkshire shareholder meeting, someone asked Buffett how to invest well. Buffett answered straightforwardly: "I will invest all my savings in index funds and continue to work hard."

Trading may not be complicated in itself, but because too many people have given too much meaning to trading for too many reasons, people have misunderstood that trading is the most difficult thing in the world. In fact, it is not difficult It is not the transaction itself, the difficulty may be the difficulty in your own heart.

The process from complex to simple is a process of simplification and integration. The number of transactions is not the "more" you see, the better. On the contrary, the source of a transaction is not that you understand it but starts from action, so Why shouldn't transactions be complicated, because complexity itself means that various factors are difficult to unify in time, and there will be inconsistencies. The more simplified it means that the judgment and decision-making are more direct, while complex signals are often not straightforward enough to increase the cost of action. So in many cases, thinking and action are not one with each other.

Although fluctuations are normal in the trading market, if established on a profound logical basis, objective laws and factual evolution will show a clear cause-and-effect relationship over time. Therefore, short-term fluctuations cannot affect the final return. After you really understand the logic of trading, you will know that trading is actually not that complicated; in fact, the market low tide is the best time for investors to face their hearts directly, allowing you to really consider who is the best trader and what kind of trading Can continue to amplify the advantages. At the same time, when the external environment is not good, it is often the time when trading theories that truly have the ability to resist risks and core competitiveness stand out.

At the end of the day, what traders compete for is a mentality, whether they have enough courage to deal with it. It may be a simple matter for some people to make money in the market, but for more people, It is very difficult to make money. No matter how simple or complex the transaction is, as long as people participate in the market, there are all kinds of games. You cannot say that this kind of game is simple, but you can only say that you can find it through this game. Believe in your heart and stick to it.

Trading is from simple to difficult, how can anything get easier? I've always thought trading was complicated because I've always been a leek, albeit a bit old.

We often say that we are in awe of the market. If it is a docile little sheep, we are afraid of a ghost. Quite simply, there are too many market participants, and everyone's knowledge structure and capital sentiment are different, which brings about huge uncertainty in the market trend, and there is no such thing as a simple statement.

For international products such as foreign exchange and crude oil, we participate in them, and the counterparty is global investors, and the information asymmetry in this is even more serious.

Since there are experts with more complete information and deeper understanding in each field, they are an important force affecting the market. Although we can establish a circle of competence within a certain range to meet the standard of semi-experts, it is difficult to become the closest to the truth. People, so we must look for advantages outside poetry and exercise ourselves in mental ability, and the basis of a mature mental model is to respect the market and admit our own insignificance.

Even if you don't agree that the market is always right, even if it is wrong, you should pretend that it is right. Do not argue, confront, or reason with those who can determine your destiny, because right and wrong are determined by the strong, and other people should only observe the factors that determine the strength and the opportunity for their change, otherwise it is a certain degree Childish and pedantic.

Respecting the market is acknowledging the multidimensionality of the market. Whether it is short-term speculation or trend investment, each has its own market stage to adapt to. Market risks are unpredictable, and investors are vulnerable to market risks. Only by being in awe of the market can we make a good investment and be king.

Taleb, author of the best-selling book "Black Swan", said: "Those investors who are more successful than me never give me any advice, and those investors who often give me advice are not as successful as me."

So, when you think that trading is from simple to complex, you are right.

When you find a fund management method that suits you, the transaction begins to become clear and clear. It is enough to use naked K for technology or add an additional indicator (such as a moving average)

The transaction itself is very complicated, and it is a slow and meticulous job. Any detail problem, if you don't do it well, there may be only losses waiting for you.

The reason why the transaction is not so complicated is mainly because all the details of your transaction have been streamlined, which means that no matter what kind of situation you encounter, you can follow the transaction process and take your seat. When you fix all the details of the transaction with systematic rules, the transaction may be as smooth and smooth as possible. There is a fixed trading pattern every day, a fixed trading process, and a clear understanding of your own trading pace. Gradually develop a trading habit, and slowly trading will not be as complicated as imagined.

There are two main reasons why beginners find trading complicated:

First, the market reasons.

To comprehensively analyze a trading product, we may need to consider the fundamentals and technical aspects.

The self-attribute of the variety, what kind of news can affect the current price trend of the variety. What kind of cyclical characteristics will appear in the variety, etc.; fundamentals, we need to know the current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the overall economic environment of the United States; the policy trends of the European Central Bank; the policy trends of the Bank of England. In Japan, Australia, etc., the actions of the central bank alone are enough for us to study, and it also needs to include fixed-point data and analysis data released weekly and monthly. Of course, emergencies are also within the scope of consideration.

Basically, as long as it is related to the fundamentals of the species, we don't seek transparency, but we must know a thing or two. This is a huge analysis project, and the expected effect may not necessarily be obtained.

technical side. This gets more complicated. From K-line to various K-line combinations, K-line structure, etc., from moving average indicators to William indicators, the usage of various indicators, the combined use of indicators, the support and resistance of indicators, the deviation and divergence of indicators, indicators overbought oversold and so on. Just hearing the name makes me dizzy. If you don't use it, you won't know the characteristics of this indicator, let alone whether this indicator is suitable for you. This will consume a lot of your time and energy, and it may not be effective, or even counterproductive. etc.

These factors, added together, make the market, which is not simple in itself, more complicated.

Second, your own reasons

Prices exist objectively, at least because of our small funds, the behavior of prices will not be changed. Prices fluctuate every day, and the market never stops. We always want to capture all the profits of the market, especially traders who have just entered the market, delusional to capture the profits of the market in a short period of time, and set a perfect trading goal for ourselves invisibly.

At the same time, for the use of technical methods such as indicators, try to exhaust all the technical analysis tools in the world as much as possible. I would rather lose a lot than give up an indicator tool that may make me rich. From the great to the simple, it is like a passing cloud in their eyes. Excessive pursuit of indicators or other analysis techniques will make your own analysis path more and more complicated. As everyone knows, complicated things are not necessarily the best, simple and applicable is the best.

The trader's own reasons make the analysis more complicated.

In short, I still believe that when you have your own trading model, your trading will definitely become simpler and simpler, so simple that you can use the trading process to fix your own trading behavior. Every day's work may be spent waiting for signals---trading signals.

I entered the market because I wanted to try domestic futures 4 years ago. I searched the Internet and found that foreign exchange margin trading is such a thing abroad, so I fell into the pit.

Once entering the foreign exchange market, it is as deep as the sea, and life and death are boundless for ten years. Fortunately for me, I searched for Jiaqiang as soon as I entered the market, and I never changed it again. So far, I have not suffered from the loss of the platform.

In the first two years, I worked hard and never tired of learning, various ideas, theories, strategies, indicators, methods, tools...even self-taught to write EA.

In the third year, I have repeatedly honed one thing: light storage! Resolutely light warehouse! Always light positions!

In the fourth year, I basically forgot all the things I learned before, and I almost stopped reading financial information and trading books. There is only one cognition about the foreign exchange market: the market is nothing but shocks. For foreign exchange trading, we also uphold a concept: light positions and patience.

It has been almost 4 years before I realized that complex things are simple to do, and simple things are repeated, and the result must be very difficult.

​I am currently making a profit overall, and I am still enthusiastic about trading, but I feel extremely lonely.

Trading is not easy.

mutual encouragement!

I started from trading, and there were three times when I felt that trading was not complicated, but it was completely different, and each time brought me a lot of gains.

When I first started trading, I thought trading was a very simple matter. This was the first time I felt that trading was not very complicated. It was nothing more than a rise and a fall. What was complicated? Others mentioned to me what is needed for trading, what theory needs this management and that attention, I think it is too cumbersome, there are so many things to say, and it’s over, I just feel that buying at a low price and selling it at a high price is enough. Simple, but I suffered a big loss.

I remember that it was the Canadian dollar at the time, and it had fallen to a very low level. It was several years since the last low point. I saw this as an opportunity to send money at the time, and I did more decisively, but the market did not. I turned to rise as I thought, but fell all the way, and I kept adding positions to spread the average price in the process, because my consciousness told me that if it fell too much, it should rise, but in the field of margin trading, everyone I should be able to guess the result, I suffered a heavy loss that time.

Because I ran out of money, I was forced to be unable to trade, so I started to study, read books, consult the masters, browse the media, and visit forums. As I watched and listened more, I began to understand a lot of trading theories and a lot of indicators. I remember the trend line trading method I learned at that time. In order to gain profits, I felt that I had finally grasped the key to open the door to wealth. Trading has become easier since then, and the market will be my cash machine. This is the second time I think trading is easy.

But when I traded for a period of time, I found that these theories and indicators were not effective at all times. Every time I thought it was an excellent opportunity, the market slapped me hard in the face. I feel that I have learned a lot, and I am very serious about trading. I have also read candlestick charts, various tactics of trading indicators, wave theory, and Dow theory. Why is it still not profitable? I was really lost and fell into deep despair. Is the market really complicated beyond my ability, is it a peak that I can't reach? At that time, I was the closest to giving up, not only giving up on trading, but also the collapse of the spiritual world.

I lost no money again.

In fact, when I think about it now, I can’t recall the state of mind at that time. How did I spend the time when I was dying? I remember from the bottom of my heart that I still didn't give up, mostly because I was unwilling. What changed me is actually a miraculous thing. In real life, I seldom talk about this experience, because I know that no one will believe me.

Two things changed me, a book and a person. The name of the book is "Turtle Trading Rules", and the person is a self-media author. I know his name, but I have never seen him. When I finished reading the turtles, I didn’t have any big feelings. The reason I read this book was because I saw in the introduction that this book originated from a gamble about whether traders can be trained. I read it with a curious mind. of this book. Later, when I was browsing the self-media, I happened to see someone explaining this book, and he explained it from the standpoint of building a trading system. My perspective is very unique, telling traders that trading should build a trading system, and then implement it consistently. It may not be stable at the beginning. With the understanding of the trading logic, you will definitely build a set of your own positive expectation trading system.

It took me about a week to read all his self-media articles. Among the dozens of articles, none of them were the kind of "dry goods" we often talk about, such as what the specific trading system is, how to enter and exit the market, and so on. nothing. But I was not disappointed at all, because I think there are many words in it that are more dry than dry goods. For example, for every transaction, I should know what to do according to the system before the transaction. single idea. A lot of what he said in his article is how to behave in the face of anti-humanity.

So, I started to build my own trading system. After thinking for a long time, I completed the construction of my own system. In fact, it is a revised version of the turtle. I made some changes in the parameters, and the effect should be similar to that of the turtle. There are many people who say that the turtles fail, and I am very happy to hear this, because the reason why a system is effective for a long time is because it always fails in stages. Some people say that the turtle feedback is too slow and the retracement is too large. I also admit that if the retracement is large, then I will take a light position, which is very light. It doesn't matter if the feedback is slow, because I have already regarded trading as a career. I believe that time will make it show its power. After a long time, there may still be people turning around in circles, but I believe that small steps can go a long way.

Now this is the third time I have decided that trading is easy, but the simplicity here does not mean that it is easy, trading is not easy, and it is even more difficult to make a good deal. The simplicity of the transaction requires us to keep it simple and treat the transaction with a professional attitude, so that we can have the opportunity to get more.

Are you satisfied with this answer?

Last year, I put all my energy into studying one form, and the varieties were also cut down, keeping only three types. Recently, I have done BTC and HSI, and there are currently five types in total.

I don't like to do foreign exchange, foreign exchange fluctuates slowly, often pulls back, the profit is small, and the utilization rate of funds is reduced, so all foreign exchange varieties are cut off.

When I really combined the "Wave Theory" with the real offer, and maximized its profit and risk control value in the real offer, I felt that trading was actually not that difficult.

Looking back at the market, there are only three best methods used, all of you know it, and everyone has learned it since the early days of entering the industry, naked K, breakthrough and selling high and buying low. That's for sure, what you learn is the principle, and the practical results must be carefully improved.

Thinking about it now, it's not that the "Wave Theory" is not easy to use, and that selling high and buying low is unstable, and martingale is a fantasy. Bookishness has always failed in any aspect of the industry. The masters just gave us an idea, a stepping stone. Whether this brick is used, how to use it, and when to use it all depends on what you do the day after tomorrow. Here, it is oneself to be ashamed, not others to be unkind.

From simple to complex, and from complex to simple. ——There is a process. At the beginning of contact, I feel that the ups and downs depend on the ups and downs. If you are lucky, you can make two sums. ——After trading for a period of time, I found that many indicators, news, and mentality did not understand, and learning is endless. ——Later on, I slowly turned from loss to profit, and mastered some skills. At this time, I felt that trading was not difficult; but without this process, I may still be in loss.

Because the more complicated the transaction is, the more it deviates from the essence of the transaction.

There are many veterans in the trading market, but veterans who can make money are relatively rare. Most of the veterans are just "old leeks". Everyone enters this market with a dream, but finds that they are often accompanied by helplessness and even helplessness in reality.

The feeling of helplessness is that the market is almost always against oneself, and the ups and downs in the middle, whoever does it, knows. The sense of helplessness is the confusion about the future, not knowing how long to lose and where the future lies.

In fact, profit is anti-human. Just because of this simplicity. The simpler things are, the less people believe in them, and the more complicated things are, the more people flock to them.

How to make the transaction from complicated to simple, you can start from these points:

1. Give up technical indicators

There is no one-size-fits-all indicator. If there is, the market will really become a "cash machine". Don't be obsessed with technical indicators and market analysis, because many indicators conflict with each other, and various analysis methods also conflict, so there are long and short sellers at any time.

2. Find the right way

It is recommended to do a good job in statistical work and find a method that suits you.

After you find a method, use historical graphics to do statistical work, whether the correct rate of this method is far more than 80%, if it is achieved, then you don’t need to look at other ones, only this one is enough.

Technical analysis is actually very simple and does not require too much theoretical support or the cooperation of various indicators. As long as you do a good job of statistics, you will find a very good trading method.

3. Mind control is the most important

When you have your own operating mode, then mentality control is very simple. Don't predict the market, don't feel what the market is going to do, everything is within your operating method.

4. Dare to take heavy positions

Don't believe that you can make a lot of money with a light position, if there is, it is only an occasional wave of market prices. When the success rate of your method reaches 100%, why not take a heavy position or even a full position? If you always operate with a 30% position, then you do not have the courage and courage to make a lot of money, and I suggest you leave the market.

Of course, if you often take heavy positions, then you are not far from bankruptcy.

5. Do not discuss with others

Don't discuss the market with others. If you have different personalities and different methods, the results of the discussion will not be the same. Even if you make the same order at the same time, your appearance will be different. When everything is in your technical method, don't waste time discussing the market with others.

6. Don’t be superstitious about masters

Now the market is flooded with false masters everywhere, keep your eyes open, and don't believe just because someone else makes a long speech, or every time the market judgment is correct. The real money maker knows nothing. If you find a real master, it would be better to give him the account to manage.

When did I think trading was easy?

You must have heard the saying "I only do the third wave when I make deals".

This is a trader on Wall Street. When he was interviewed by a reporter from The New York Times, the reporter asked him "What is your trading secret?" The trader replied without thinking, "I only do the third wave."

With this sentence, I suddenly understood that trading is doing subtraction, only do the market that I am most sure of, and do the most stable segment with the highest success rate. If the market band that I am most sure of happens to be the band with the highest and most stable market success rate, then my order accuracy rate will be greatly improved.

After that, I turned the breakout point of building the trading system to the method of establishing the third wave. Combined with the unique indicator trend trajectory, there is a general framework for the strategy.

Half a year after the strategy was implemented, I found that the implementation of the new foreign exchange strategy was not satisfactory. Products with relatively large daily price fluctuations such as crude oil, gold and silver were more suitable and stable. Therefore, I will delete again, kick out all foreign exchange products, and only keep crude oil, gold and silver.

At this point, the trading strategy is almost done. The time before and after the establishment of the strategy is half a year.

My requirements for trading models are capital preservation, light analysis, reproducibility, and high returns.

I often reflect that when the theoretical knowledge has been mastered to a certain level, it needs to be reversed, and subtraction is no longer addition. A black cat and a white cat are good cats if they catch mice. It is useless to learn too much theoretical knowledge such as "Tanglement Theory", "Wave Theory", "Gann Theory", etc. It is a good way to make money.

Make the right choice, do the sure thing. Do only one or two K-line trends repeatedly to strengthen the brain's recognition and familiarity with this trend, making money is easy.

I think whether the transaction is complicated or not is actually a matter of thought.

To put it simply, first of all, the market is nothing more than rising and falling, or there may be shocks. Then our transaction is to buy and sell, and then close the position. Isn't it easy to count things with one hand?

But when it comes to complexity, it's too complicated. This includes market analysis, the application of various theories, and the interpretation of various data; when trading, the analysis of entry and exit points, the setting of profit-loss ratio, and the setting of stop loss; Time to enter the market, how much profit is reasonable, how much loss is unbearable, etc., too many things.

However, as a trader, do you want it complicated or simple? Everyone may say, of course, simple is the best. Then we need to artificially remove the noise of the market and exclude everything that has nothing to do with price changes.

But it should be noted that our risk control must not be moved. In other words, before you buy or sell, you must take the time to define how much loss you can bear in this transaction, and how much potential profit you can achieve is not so important. What the market lacks is longevity. Relying on good fund management can allow you to live in the market for as long as possible.

But to achieve good results, it will definitely require more effort. Mastering knowledge and theory is the premise, but it does not mean copying the things in the book. Learn, practice, and then fight. So the process is complicated, but the operation is simple. I believe in simplifying complexity and starting from actual combat. It is said that there is a poetic spirit in the belly, the more complicated you are, the simpler your operation may be, and the more amazing the result will be.

That’s about all I can say, and the summary is: Only by making yourself complicated can you be qualified to make the transaction simple.