What do you do when technicals and fundamentals collide?

Being able to ask this question shows that the subject is still unclear about the relationship between technical and fundamental aspects and their respective connotations. For example, on a fundamental level, it seems that you have been overeating for a while, and you are destined to gain weight, but from a technical perspective, if you continue to run, you should lose weight. If you only look at the surface, others will bet that you will lose weight in the future when they see you running so diligently, but those who know you know that you eat a lot of high-calorie food, and the consumption of running is not enough, so bet that you will lose weight in the future fat. On a deep level, the relationship between the two is as follows:

Fundamentals are the essence of connotation, and technical aspects are external manifestations;

Fundamentals are the cause, technicals are the result, and all price quotations are derived from changes in the relationship between supply and demand;

The fundamentals are ahead, but the technicals are lagging behind. Changes in the supply and demand relationship come first, and then there are changes in the price market;

The fundamentals are caused by the supply and demand environment, and the technical aspects are caused by the emotions of traders. The market has always been moved by the wind, but some people know it earlier, and some people know it later;

Important sudden information on the fundamental level can instantly change the long-term price trend on the technical level, but any indicator on the technical level cannot change the supply and demand relationship on the fundamental level, because transactions cannot create or consume any products;

​​In the actual trading process, the fundamental and technical aspects also have their own different functions: the fundamental aspect only provides the basis for trend prediction, and cannot give a specific entry position, because you don't know what the wave of market conditions bred by a certain economic event will be. You can’t know which economic event the current market is caused by; technical aspects can only provide market trend tracking, and cannot predict how the subsequent market will develop. The continuation of the trend can be regarded as the continuation of the previous fundamentals. Changes in the trend market, such as breaking through and leaving the shock zone or completely reversing, can be regarded as the effect of some new fundamental information.

​​Although fundamental events always occur before technical events, in the face of unexpected market conditions, ordinary traders can only know the technical events first, and then they may know the fundamental events, and they will never even know what the fundamentals are Unexpected market conditions caused by events. When an event that can affect the economic development trend is only possible, those financial giants already know it. When the news media interviews these events, all kinds of well-informed trading masters also know it. Finally, when we ordinary When traders sit in front of the TV watching the news and know the information, the predators have already laid an ambush. If we operate according to the news, we will only be caught by the sheep, which is meaningless. Therefore, purely technical traders only use technical aspects, that is, chart analysis, as the basis for trading, and never care about fundamental information.

Nowadays, with the development of network communication, for some financial data, such as the non-agricultural data of the United States, ordinary traders can also learn about it immediately, and can go for a gamble. At this time, many traders have abandoned the technical aspect and only operate based on information. It is inevitable that being slapped in the face back and forth will cause huge losses. I have never heard of a non-agricultural business that can make a stable profit. ​For example, the non-agricultural data at the beginning of this year showed that the U.S. economy was doing well. Many people went short of gold. Who knew that the result was that gold and the dollar flew together. Thinking that the epidemic in just ten days will have such a big impact. The biggest problem with trading based on fundamentals is that you don't know which piece of information is the direct cause of the market development, and you don't know which one has a greater effect when you look at the opposite data. In the end, it's just a guess.

Thank you Huiyou for the invitation, Mr. Hu will answer every question (playing with the mobile phone during the break)

No noodles are useless, making money depends on ideas, not noodles! What is the idea of ​​making money? Take the stock market as an example. The stock market that has fallen for several years climbed below 3,000 points and did not dare to open a position in stocks. The market has only risen to more than 3,000 points and I want to sell stocks. I don’t see the possibility of making money with such an idea! An investment, a page of A4 paper can't explain why it can make money, and it won't be a good idea.

The idea is not to eat noodles, because too many people are concerned about eating noodles, but too little attention is paid to the strategic direction. Of course, ideas can be supported by various noodles, but it is first to have an idea before looking for various noodles, rather than eating all kinds of noodles. to construct ideas.

Finally, both technical analysis and fundamental analysis are tools, and neither tool is better, only which one is more suitable. Of course, it is also possible to trade and invest purely with tools, which is much better than purely relying on feeling, but no matter how good the various aspects of the cow are, they are just craftsmen.

Above, thank you for reading

Thanks for the invitation, I don't think it's too entangled with this.

Why?

Because the belief in fundamentals is that supply and demand determine prices, and there are three major assumptions in technical aspects. But to be honest, there is no difference between the so-called fundamentals and technicals. Because future prices cannot be determined in advance. For this alone, fundamentals and technicals are at the same level, and there is no distinction between superior and inferior. Because none of them can predict the future. If the future could be predicted, you would be rich as hell.

The fundamentals and technical aspects are ignorant of the next K-line, so the fundamentals and technical aspects are just the basis for trial and error. For example, if the fundamentals of XX futures varieties have changed greatly, then I assume that it will rise next. For another example, the moving average has already shown a long-term arrangement, and at this time the price breaks through the recent high point, then we assume that it will rise next, so I enter the market and go long.

However, will the price rise because of your opinion? Won't. Prices may go up or down. If it rises, you can continue to hold it, because it proves that your assumption is correct. But what if the price drops?

Your fundamentals have not changed, but your technical form has been destroyed, what should you do? Do you want to find some more fundamentals to support yourself to fight to the death? Or change the K-line pattern with a small cycle to persuade yourself to increase your position against the trend?

NO, you have to stop the loss. Your opinion, based on the trend, is not worth mentioning. Just your own assumptions.

Because you can't control the risk, you don't have the ability to hold it for a long time. Therefore, don't look down on each other. It's just trial and error based on different traders. Whether you can make a profit depends on whether you have risk management capabilities.

In fact, it is not only the conflict between fundamentals and technicals, but also market psychology and emotions?

The different technical indicators you use also have conflicts!

When a certain industry is about to come, you are going to make a rush to repay the debt owed by the last shock to the market!

result,

MA: Brother, it's down, it's down, stop it

MACD: Not yet. would send the wrong signal and mislead my brother

RSI: Don't worry, although there is a signal, but it is not in the best condition, brother listen to me

Tell me, who do you listen to?

If you take care of it, you can't make a deal. If you ask others, each has its own recommendation, and everyone uses it differently!

The market is there, regardless of technical aspects, fundamentals or market sentiment trading psychology, cannot be surpassed, but we can understand the relationship!

Fundamentals and market sentiment are the cause, technical aspects are the result, and it is the result of past experience!

Therefore, when there are no fundamentals and market sentiment, you can use past experience to push future trends and look for historical similarities!

But when the fundamentals and market sentiments that lead to market changes come, can you ignore them?

Of course, it is necessary to take into account the reasons for these precursors, and even when the fundamentals come, novices will not trade! I would rather give up the probabilistic profit of catching the market once than lose my principal!

I think my point of view has been expressed clearly, and you can exchange opinions if you have different opinions! ​

Do long-term trading according to technical trends

Do short-term, wait and see instead of doing.

The news affects for a while, and once the technical trend is formed, it is difficult for the news to change the trend.

This question is actually not worth discussing. A very small number of trading masters are purely technical. They don’t care about fundamental news at all, because they can see market warnings directly from the disk; a large number of traders will pay attention to fundamental news. , It is more risky to see if you can find varieties that are greatly affected by the market and find profit opportunities. And what I'm curious about is how do news traders trade? I have never met a trader who analyzes purely on the news.

Fundamentals are used to watch and play, according to the system, fundamentals are also useful, when it resonates with technicals, it can enhance confidence in holding positions

No conflict, just macro and micro regulation

You take 5 minutes to read the quarterly report on the technical side

Of course it will feel "conflicted"

Personally, I think it depends on your trading cycle. Generally, the influence of fundamentals will take longer. If you are doing short-term, you must definitely consider the important points of technical aspects. If you are doing mid-term, you must give priority to the influence of fundamentals before entering the market...

Both are meaningful. My trading system is a combination of technical aspects and fundamentals. If you only focus on the points, then you have a high chance of making mistakes and you will miss a lot of market conditions. But if you focus on the points, you will not be able to find the best trading opportunities will also suffer a lot

Raising this question shows that the subject looks at both fundamentals and technical aspects.

Law of Watches: Owning more than two watches will not help people judge the time more accurately, but will create confusion and make people who watch watches lose their judgment on time.

I suggest that the subject should first determine whether he is a technical noodle pie or a basic noodle pie. It is best not to eat both bowls of noodles, as this will create unnecessary conflicts for himself.

Just like the technical school uses technical indicators to trade, will people who use three technical indicators at the same time have better performance than those who use two technical indicators? Is the trading performance of people who use two technical indicators necessarily higher than those who use only one technical indicator? Is the trading performance of a person who uses a technical indicator necessarily higher than that of a person with naked K? The reason is the same, don't make your trading system too complicated, otherwise the trading system itself will easily contradict itself.

From the road to simplicity! You need to know how to choose.

Fundamentals can provide the basis for entry and exit, and technical analysis can also provide the basis for entry and exit, just choose one. There are still many more important things to do in the formation of a complete trading system. Don't argue endlessly about the advantages and disadvantages of technical aspects and fundamentals, because this is only a small part of the trading system. ​

Thank you, can I simply understand it as how to choose when two reliable methods conflict with you? In other words, I might choose to wait and see instead of blindly making a decision, because the conflict between the two has no clue at this time. It is more like Betting.

If you want to make stable and profitable transactions easier, you still need to be reliable on the technical side. At least you don’t have to pay attention to the major market conditions every day like the fundamentals, and the entry threshold for the fundamentals is very high. If you are not a professional financial person, you will not be able to grasp the essence. I believe that few of you present here have a real financial background, right? But the technical aspects are indeed very "people-friendly", as long as you are proficient in one or two of those few technical indicators, not to mention walking sideways in the market, at least you can get enough food and clothing. To be honest, the technical and fundamental aspects are really similar to science and liberal arts

This is not absolute. It depends on the attributes of the products you make. For example, crude oil is more affected by policy than technical aspects, while European and American technical aspects are greater than fundamental aspects.

My own trading (focusing on EURUSD) mainly relies on technical aspects, while the news aspect focuses on interest rate resolutions and non-agricultural data.

When you trade with a large cycle, you will find that the release of many news is just a shadow line in the 4h cycle, but there will be great fluctuations in the small cycle, because there are more clutter in the small cycle.

Generally, before the news is announced, if you already have a position, you need to pay attention to the risks. It’s not that trading on the news side is difficult to do. Many traders have already started to make arrangements before the news is announced, so in the case of currency, I personally think that the technical side is greater than the fundamental side (if you have a different idea, you can share your opinion in the comment area) Suggestions, we communicate and learn from each other)

Price fluctuations are caused by two layers of fluctuations,

The first layer is objective fluctuations. Reflecting the value of commodities is the basic function of the market. Without this functionality, the market would cease to exist. Fundamental analysis, skipping the price of the disk, directly explore the value of the commodity.

The other layer is the game of funds. In the game, there is conspiracy and conspiracy. False news, persecution, intimidation, and deception all result in price deviations from value. Game is also fundamental.

Fundamental news is the same as technical news, divided into levels. The level of fundamentals refers to the length of time and the breadth of space influenced by fundamental facts. For example, the impact of Brexit and a certain non-agricultural release, the impact is profound and extensive, and there are obviously levels.

The purpose of technical and fundamental analysis is to analyze the future of a certain level of objective fluctuations. In the final analysis, it is to analyze the fundamentals.

The root of the conflict between technical and fundamental aspects lies in the inconsistency of the objective volatility levels analyzed by the two. For example, the technical analysis is within the day, while the fundamental news corresponds to the impact of more than one month, causing conflicts.

I don't see a conflict between the two. Generally, we only focus on the fundamentals of deep and broad levels, and hot spots that do not hold positions. Conflicts indicate that you have not yet established your own trading model.

I am a retail investor, so I always make orders according to technology. I don't know how to interpret the fundamentals, and some fundamentals are what others want to show us, or they have already known in advance, so I would rather only be technical.

Fundamentals do not affect short-term trends. For example, no matter how ugly the U.S. unemployment data next month is, investors still have confidence in the future. Changes in exchange rates cannot be reflected in the short-term ups and downs, and even go out of reverse.

Forex retail traders, it is necessary to understand the fundamentals, but if it is said to rely on the fundamentals to trade, it is rarely, very, very, very, very little, and it is not necessary.

Because the holding time is too short, the trading strategy is simple, and the fundamentals are not involved at all.

And those who do news market are actually using news to gamble, which has nothing to do with fundamentals.

Doing fundamentals is like planting a tree and waiting for it to bear fruit. It requires real effort and investment. Why is Luckin Coffee shorted? It is because tens of thousands of hours of videos were taken for hundreds of stores, and the estimated customer flow and order volume did not match the financial report. I research, I discover, I act, I wait, I reap. Not even one step can be spared.

So when you usually make an order, don't talk about the fundamentals. You can make dozens of orders a day, regardless of the fundamentals.

When you have one watch, you know what time it is, but when you have two watches, you only know what time it is.

The fundamentals will have an impact on the short-term trend, but it has little significance for the long-term trend. After the news is digested, we still follow the technical aspect.

This question still needs to be asked, can we not do it if this kind of problem arises? ? ? Wouldn't it be ok to wait until the direction is consistent before entering the market?

This is something on two levels. Fundamentals will eventually return to technical aspects at any time. If you find two conflicts, either your analysis is wrong, or it is a short-term contradiction. Either way, just wait for consistency. Because, the technical trend must refer to the fundamental factors. Under the same fundamentals, everyone's analysis will roughly converge, and when it is reflected in the transaction, it will come out on the technical side. Therefore, the contradiction between the two is only temporary, or it is under different time frames. You should check whether the main elements and reference points when you analyze the two are consistent, and you should also discard the trends and market prices that you have preset in your heart.