How to judge the trend in the early stage. ?

The formation of the trend is to capture the signs of the trend through the early form of the trend, and then confirm the establishment after completing the early form, and then follow the development of the trend. The early form mentioned here is N-shaped. If the confirmation of the early form fails, the trend will have to continue to return to the shocks before the early form. Note that it is formed first and then confirmed. As for how to confirm, it is inconvenient to elaborate here.

There must be a wave of shocks in the early stage of a unilateral trend, unless the V-shape reverses, when the shock is broken and starts to go unilaterally, the timeline must be before and after major fundamental news appears

All, if you want to grasp the unilateral and patiently wait for the shock, you will not enter the market until the major fundamental news is about to appear or end. At this time, if you do it right, you can often catch a large wave of market prices, and you will be given multiple positions in the middle.

There are also standards for judging trends, and any kind of judgment method is relatively not absolute, so what you should do is to set a standard for trend judgment.

The target price is reached, the trend line breaks, and an inflection point appears

Thank you for the invitation, although a bunch of people have already answered XD

I usually use data comparison

Usually I look at the daily trend

Then I will pull the trend of the previous 10 years at the same time

to compare the current situation

high probability

low probability

provide reference​

It can't be judged in the early stage. When the wind blows and the grass moves, only after the grass moves will there be obvious movements. There is no such thing as a prophet of plumbing ducks in the Spring River. Ducks don't know whether the water is cold or warm before they enter the water. It is true only when they experience it for a certain period of time.

It is okay to follow the trend, but to judge in advance, it is too much to overestimate one's ability, after all, you are not a prophet, right?

Predicting trends is equivalent to predicting the future. I have some opinions here, which are relatively objective, and you can refer to them.

Observing market trends requires observing comprehensive market conditions. For example, the European and American currencies (EURUSD) must pay attention to the US market, the Federal Reserve, European industrial indexes, etc., and the most popular ones are Sino-US trade relations and vaccines. These all need to spend some time in private, and the amount of each information is different. In addition, you can pay attention to each quarterly report of the country. If there seems to be no growth or recession, everyone should be able to predict the next policy. This is to predict the trend. Although it is not 100% accurate, if there is not much change in the world, there is still a 60-70% reliability.

K-line shape and trend shape. and indicators. You can judge the trend, whether there will be a turning point in the future, if you want to accurately grasp the turning point of the market. Then this is technology, it is impossible to tell you casually, and it is worthless to tell you. See how these sheets are doing. above picture

This problem can be understood as a cyclical problem. For example, the daily gold line level is 1700-1800. Then, the hourly market has been stable and started to rise from 1700. When it rises to 1800, the hourly cycle is likely to rise. It will end and start to fluctuate or even fall. This shock or decline is due to the early light under the influence of a larger level of position and trend~㊗️ bright

Trend judgment can use the Bollinger Bands technical indicator (BOLL), average directional movement indicator (ADX), envelope indicator, Ichimoku balance indicator (IKH), moving average indicator (MA) and so on in the MT4 trading software.

There are two methods. The first method is to control the market, have the absolute right to speak, and have the ability to control the price trend. What kind of market is this method divided into. It may be easy to use in China's stock market, but few people have this ability in the globalized foreign exchange market. The second method is trial and error. It seems wrong, but it is the only correct solution. When an opportunity arises, enter the market with a reasonable position until the trend is caught. As Richard Dennis, the founder of the turtle trading rules, said, the trend system is to exchange 5% of the correctness for 95% of the profit.

If you want to make an accurate judgment in the early stage of the trend, there are only two methods.

There are big and small trends, big cycles have big cycle trends, big cycle trends will not end after rising or falling a few/dozens of points after starting, and if you enter the market according to small cycle trends, don’t expect to get hundreds or even thousands What to do is to confirm the trend and then enter the market (taking the rise as an example), when the market starts to pull back, leave the market first, and then enter the main Shenglang and continue to enter the market after the callback is over. Of course, you can look at the big and make the small when trading. When the trend of the big cycle starts, the trend of the resonant small cycle will be a period of time. It may be a complete wave of 5 waves in the small cycle, but only a wave of 3 waves in the big cycle. , and there is a high probability that there will be 5 waves after the 3 waves in the big cycle, but this is not the reason why we have been waiting for the end of the 4-wave pullback in the small cycle.

From the perspective of technical analysis based on charts, there is no way to discover trends in advance, and it is only okay to make psychological preparations in advance.

The definition of a bullish trend is that one top is higher than the other, and one bottom is higher than the other. The short trend is reversed.

From this definition, it is necessary to go through at least three stages before it can be judged that the trend is established. From the perspective of bulls, it means falling together and falling again, and short selling means falling together and falling again. To simplify it, give it a name and call it three paragraph style. Only in this way can it be said that the conditions for the establishment of the trend have been met. As for what the trend will develop in the future, it has to be judged in combination with the current price position. For example, at historical highs or historical lows, if the three-stage market breaks the highest price or lowest price that has been broken for several years, you have the conditions to get out of the large-scale market. At this time, the success rate and return rate will be very objective. If the three-stage pattern appears in a tepid position, or in a oscillating position, with highs and lows in the front, back, left, and right, and it is double-teamed in the previous price, this situation is aesthetically ugly. No investment value. Of course, this is just a very general statement, and the analysis and judgment of specific situations are still very particular.

What is the trend? What are its constituent elements?

In the non-controlling financial market, everyone's decision-making is self-righteous and optimal.

Suppose there are two pigs in the pigsty, a big pig and a little pig. The pigsty is very long, with a pedal at one end, and the feed outlet and trough at the other end. Every time the pig steps on the pedal, 10 servings of pig food will enter the trough on the other side, but the "labor" required to run to the trough after stepping on the pedal will consume 2 servings of pig food.

The problem is that the pedal and the trough are located at the two ends of the cage. If one pig steps on the pedal, the other pig will have the opportunity to eat the food that falls on the other side first. By the time the pig that stepped on the pedal worked hard and ran to the trough, the other pig that was enjoying the benefits had already eaten a lot.

The specific situation of the "pig in a cage" game is as follows: if two pigs step on the pedal at the same time and run to the trough at the same time, the big pig eats 7 shares and gains 5 shares, and the little pig eats 3 shares and gets 1 share; if The big pig ran to the trough after stepping on the pedal. At this time, the little pig took the lead, eating 4 shares, and got 4 shares. The big pig took 6 shares, paid 2 shares, and gained 4 shares; If the big pig eats the board first, he will eat 9 shares and gain 9 shares, while the little pig will eat 1 share but pay 2 shares and get -1 share; if both parties are too lazy to move, the income will be 0.

Then, on the premise that both pigs have wisdom, the final profit graph is as follows:

1. Foreign exchange market structure

Participants​: central banks, interbank markets, market makers, traders

Ratio of funds: International trade and intra-bank settlement account for 5% of the daily transaction volume; speculative funds account for 95%, of course this is only an approximation.

       The central bank formulates policies, the interbank market is between commercial banks, market makers get prices from the interbank market, and tens of thousands of fund managers actually control the inflow of funds. ​ 

      It is precisely because a large amount of funds are controlled by fund managers that there is a basis for "speculation". If the national trade settlement accounts for a large amount, it will fluctuate completely according to the settlement center. ​

     We have a basis when we trade, we need to know:

①The foreign exchange market is uncontrollable

②The same investors are doing it, but the capital size is different, there is no main force, only the consistency or inconsistency of the crowd.

Two, the sky is consistent​

The blue box is the volatility of the day. There is an inflow of funds, and then a new high is made on the second day, and it goes away on the third day. ​

Thinking:​​

① Within a day, can it be subdivided? If yes, what standard should be used to divide it objectively?

② Consistent, which level of analysis does it belong to? (Benefit analysis, psychological analysis, fund analysis, price analysis)​

3. Definition of trend

A process in which prices fluctuate continuously in one direction.

If the sampling time of the observers is not uniform, the conclusions obtained will vary widely, including all, and cannot be communicated. We use one day to constrain, and we have a standard that conforms to human work and rest. However, what needs to be considered is, which time zone has the real meaning of human work and rest and bank settlement?

 The starting point of the trend, usually at that point. That point is the machine. A point in time, or a point in space, or a region? ​

Lao Tzu: Don’t dare to be the first in the world. In fact, anti-be the first in the world. Follow life without birth, reverse death without death. Fund managers are big pigs, others will move before you. This is also the certainty of the existence of expectations and layout funds, and its cost is much greater than yours. ​

The trend comes from the focus, which is the prediction made by everyone for the events that will happen in the future. If the focus expectation is obvious, there will be an expected capital layout. Just follow the direction of the expected capital layout, provided that you can find him. to be able to understand

Let me give a simple example: non-agricultural data. In the past year, the non-agricultural data generally fluctuated little. You may not be able to see it because of insufficient recognition ability, but you can refer to the data of previous years. In the small cycle range, Before the data is released, there will be a small expected capital entering the market. Of course, non-agricultural funds are all short-term speculative funds. They will not hold positions for a long time. Long-term funds must enter the market after the event occurs. Finally, if the announced results are contrary to expectations, it is expected that the funds will immediately turn around. This is what people often say is the behavior of luring more and short, but the essence is not what everyone imagines. After the data is released, the first trend is to compare the data. The expected value will soon change its trend. This changed trend is compared to the previous value of the data. If the expected value is the same as the previous value, it will accelerate in one direction.

The question is why the non-agricultural impact in the past few years has been so great, but the non-agricultural impact has become smaller and smaller in recent years? The problem lies in the overall economic development of the United States. This needs to be discussed in detail, so I won’t talk about it today.

The trend must be a big cycle, based on at least four hours. Whether it is a shock or an upward or downward trend, there are at least three points to judge. In the four-hour and above cycle charts, two support or pressure points connect the city line. And it can form a parallel line of more than 100 basis points with another point, which can basically confirm the formation of the trend

Before the trend comes, it will build a bottom or a top, usually a double bottom or three tops, also known as a shock interval, or a center. At this time, it is suitable to place orders, and look at the larger level

Trends are always ready to wait.

The opening signal is like this. In order to facilitate manual trading, the entry signals of long and short orders are made into red and green dot signals (in fact, they are two moving averages of 34 days and 144 days). Red appears to be long and green appears Short, there is also a yellow signal waiting for no order, and you can manually place an order according to the signal.

Medium and long-term trend trading needs to reduce the loss of volatile market. When the market starts, we are always ready to maximize the profit of trend orders. Profit is measured by annualization, not short-term. This contains the logic of probability and odds. Small positions lose money during shocks, and you can hold them when one side comes, and then use time and the loss point of the previous order to exit the market.

It is objective to open a position and enter the market. There are additions and subtractions to the position, and the exit is based on the time market and loss point. Whichever one is reached first will exit the market.

For example, if you do pound day, the chart period: one hour level is recommended. It is recommended to start with a position of 0.02 for 10,000 US dollars, and increase by 0.02 after the loss, and the maximum should not exceed 0.30 lots. After making a profit, you need to reduce it by 0.02, or start trading from 0.02 again, which is the logic of the position.