Why is the past market clear at a glance, but the current market is at a loss?

The market is like a kaleidoscope. You can recognize every color and pattern when you take it apart. There are only 10 and 8 pieces of paper with different sizes and shapes.

But when you put it in the tube and turn it, you don't know what the next pattern will be, and the kaleidoscope is just playing various patterns in an infinite loop.

Wanhuajian can accurately calculate what the next graphic might be, and the accuracy rate will be very high. But the market is ever-changing and formed by the long-short trading operations of billion-level investors. It is difficult to calculate precisely.

So if you look at the past, you can understand it. What form it will take now is guessing, and it is also a bet on the future.

So in my fourth year of trading, I gave up all indicators and techniques, and only did hedging. Learn safety first, profit second.

The so-called authorities are obsessed, people who do a good job in trading try to keep themselves out of trading, make a trading plan before entering the market, and then carry out the appraisal!

First of all, you still have the concept of forecasting the market. Hope to understand the market through subjective ability, control the market, and earn excess returns.

Secondly, really good transactions are dominated by trend following. Because its trading philosophy of following the trend is the most in line with the logic of market trading.

I think the technical analysis theory with trend tracking technology as the core is the only correct and smooth way. There is only one type of technical analysis that is credible, and that is trend following, and John Magee's morphology is of considerable value.
In particular, I would like to say that the technique of trend following trading will never become obsolete, because it goes straight to the essence of the trading market. "Trend + form" is the true face of the trading market, and it is impossible and impossible for the trading market to appear in any other form.

If you are doing trend-following trading, have your own trading rules, and can execute unconditionally according to your own rules, you will not miss any market trend of this product. Of course, you also have to bear the withdrawal of funds caused by the volatile market within the rules. Of course, if you have a trading system with positive return expectations but don't strictly enforce the rules, that's another matter.

The past market conditions are already known, just like history, not only you know it, but everyone knows it. The current market is unknown, and no one knows what will happen in the next second. No matter what happens, it can be explained logically in terms of technology!

Because the past market has already come out, the unknown market is still uncertain, and the mentality is a little hesitant. This is a mental illness many traders suffer from

I think it is still the problem of being in it. There will always be many possibilities for what has not happened. When we are doing transactions, when we are facing the unknown, we can judge the choices we make according to our own habits, and then we have our own stop loss and stop profit to achieve the result.

Not good at technology

The basic analysis is still not in place, and the mentality has not been adjusted well.

1. The obvious problem is that the trading system is not perfect, and there is no clear signal for trading.

2. It depends on what cycle you trade. Small cycles have more noise. You can switch to large cycles to filter out the noise.

3. There will be psychological factors in the transaction, because you lack confidence in your trading system, and to make up for this disadvantage, you need to repeat trading according to your signals. ​​​​

1 There is a problem with execution. I dare not try

2 indicator traders, indicators have a lag

3 That is not our taste, such as v anti-trend

It means that the transaction is already on the way, and the direction cannot be determined.

For what happened, it's very smooth, with high-sightedness and low-handedness

The trading system is immature and lacks confidence.

Because you open MT4 and look back at the past market, you are setting the formula according to the results.

But the real operation is to solve the result according to the formula.

One is to set it forward, and the other is to untie it backwards. I think they are two completely different behaviors!

In fact, you can speak clearly and logically, which means you understand the formula. But from the result set formula, the success rate is 100%; but using the formula to solve the result is less than 100%.

Therefore, when operating, after a few more stop losses, you will doubt the formula​. Because you use a different formula to solve the problem, and mistakes make you doubt the formula.

Know the formula, but don't understand it thoroughly. If the formula is not flexible and rigid, then it is recommended to count the success rate of the formula, that is, the winning rate. And count the profit-loss ratio and other data to further determine whether this formula can make a profit;

​If the formula is highly flexible, then... I don't have a good way, use the simulation disk to see if it works! ​

Because the future is inherently unknown, we can only answer from the perspective of probability

Because you follow the board, what you always see is the current result. You need to know what was the cause of the current result in the past, and what is the cause of the current result, so that you have the object of analysis.

Because you didn't make a pre-market plan!

Meet your own expectations, how to operate

Exceeding my expectations, what should I do?

Because looking at the static chart belongs to the category of technical analysis, and technical analysis cannot solve the problem of how to make money in gambling. Technical analysis only tells the current and historical trends and signal classification... It cannot increase the winning rate, nor can it increase the odds. It just tells you what was before and how to operate after you trade, it can't help you.

The essence of financial speculation is gambling. The difference with Macau casinos is that the probability of continuous profit in casinos is very small, because it is random by machine and completely disordered.

The subject matter of financial speculation is that people are buying and selling. Since they are people, they have emotions, rationality, irrationality, and other factors that are different from machines, so there will be consistency in expectations in transactions, and because of the same information, Everyone acquires information and takes buying and selling at different times, which results in the continuity of the stock price in a certain period. With this continuity, it means that there are odds different from our casinos.

If the probability of being out of the position by stop loss is the same as that of profit, once the stop loss is out, the loss will be a fixed small percentage amount. Once the price goes up, the result will be a high probability of continuous profit, far exceeding the fixed stop loss amount. You will definitely ask, within a certain range, how to determine that the probability of opening a position without being stopped is half? The answer is very simple, that is, only open positions with fixed signals. Signal, in the long run, its probability is infinitely close to half. One of the functions of technical analysis is to fix the probability of speculation.

So, how to ensure that once the position is successfully opened, the price can continue to rise and obtain a floating profit that is far greater than the stop loss? Through technical analysis, I can see with my eyes, oh, this has been rising for several months, and its trend in the same direction is obvious, and the trend has inertia, which is caused by the inconsistent timing of the trading actions of traders.

Due to the same information and the same reason, everyone who trades can never trade at the same time. Then, the buying and selling actions will never be consistent, so what will happen? The answer is that if the root cause of this stock's trend (you don't need to figure out what the root cause) has not changed, it is impossible to change the general trend. Have you determined which direction the overall trend is through technical analysis, and there is almost a 99% probability that this overall trend will continue. Unless that root cause, the root logic changes.

In the above analysis, the probability is fixed by finding signals through technical analysis, the direction of the overall trend is clearly seen, and the overall trend will definitely continue (unless the fundamental logic and reasons change). The above actually raises the cycle problem. Although the general trend is upward, you must have a stop loss in every transaction to avoid the loss of the reverse trend with a very small probability, because if you don’t stop the loss, you may still lose everything. So you must have a stop loss again. Have you found the contradiction in the middle? Because you stop the loss, you can't grasp the trend of the big cycle, and because you don't stop the loss, there is a very small probability of losing everything. So what to do?

So you can only look at the big cycle, the specific operation, buy and sell according to more small-level cycles, and what level of cycle is it based on? I don’t know, just open a position according to a fixed signal, stop the loss if you lose money, and calculate it from the k of your opening price if you have a floating profit, and connect the line between the n k lines that keep going up. The line is not only a trend line, but also must be equal to a moving average of a certain period. You set it in advance, and the stock price will take profit when the stock price falls a few percentage points below this moving average price. Hold it until it falls below.

In this way, you have a gambling trading system that realizes little loss and big profit.

What is the use of technical analysis?

Summary: First, fix the winning rate of gambling 

Second, find the trend, (it has been rising for several months, you bet it will continue)

The third is the elimination method, try to avoid the rising cycle with low trading odds, and the rest is the cycle with high odds.

How to avoid it? For example, if you buy a stock that has fallen for a few days or even a few weeks in a row, and you buy it again, even if it rises, it will definitely pull back soon after the rise (the reason is not explained). You can avoid it by looking at historical trends, and the rest Doesn't the comment below mean that all walks may be high odds? Technical analysis only has these three functions. As for some people who say that other functions, such as improving the winning rate and odds, are all false, or only valid for a certain period of time, because the principle is very simple, the entire market is a bet, and it is impossible to Individuals can make money for a long time, no matter what you do, the probability is only infinitely close to 51%. Finally, if you understand what I said, then you won’t be wondering why technical analysis doesn’t make money, because technical analysis only has that Three functions, making money depends on the trading system, and the trading system is logic, thinking, how to execute it, and a series of how to operate after buying.

In the last sentence, technical analysis can only solve the problems before operation, and the trading system solves the problems after buying.

The core of trading is the art of coping. When you look at history, you directly omit the core coping. Of course, deduction through history is a good training method and method. But the biggest disadvantage of this method is that it deletes the core response in the transaction.

Trading is to make a certain judgment on the future direction. Then execute it, and then how should you deal with it? What should I do if I make a mistake? What is right and what is wrong? These questions are very, very important and need to be thought through by every trader.

For example, you do a wave of rising. In history, you think he will always hold you if he wants to find you. But in real life, every callback he makes is a test of your psychological quality. It is also a test of your trading system. If your mentality needs to be changed, your judgment will go wrong. your trading system. If it does not conform to the situation at the time, then there will be a result that does not conform to the trend at the time.

Successful trading is to work hard to make your response in line with his trend. When to take it and when to go. If you can't detail these details, every time you make a decision, there will be changes. If every decision you make is different, then your mentality will have a great influence on you during the transaction process.

So we have been saying that the trading system is very important. He can guarantee the stability of our output. Even a bad trading system. Well, at least he is also a stable output of bad results. It is also much better than your decision-making that is constantly changing and swinging with the wind all day long. This is just to give you a big idea. In fact, all problems have to be dealt with one by one. One detail after another is dealt with. This is something that does not exist in history. So you feel as if the history is quite simple.

But the reality is hard. I have even seen some people who have a fixed way of entering the market, which is very effective when pushing history. It's very good that he can see it every time he arrives, but in actual real life, when the price changes, he can't see it. When it was happening, it was also his opportunity to enter the market, but he couldn't see it. But after the market closed, he looked back and looked, wow, it was that one. This backward approach is not advisable. His problem should be his approach. Feeling judgement takes too much weight. Not enough details to support, clear details. objective signal. So every time you look backwards, you should know the result first to see wow, this is very powerful, and it should be like this. But in real life, you can't see the future.

Trading is easy to say. It is nothing more than entering the market and waiting for a right or wrong result. By the way, what should I do? Wrong, what should I do? So strictly speaking, how to enter the market is not the most important thing. How to deal with it is the most important thing? Even winning percentage doesn't matter. Some people have a 40% winning rate and can always make money. His mode is once wrong, small stop loss. Once you are right, you will stick to it. in exchange for huge profits. Of course, there is another common mode. It is a mode that leeks like to use most. The odds should be higher. But every time I am right, I make a little money, and I am wrong every time. One mistake out of ten will be a big one. Big mistake. Just bury yourself. Maybe look at his results, the winning rate is 70%. But he broke his position. This mode is to choose not to react to mistakes and lie flat, and choose to leave the market as soon as possible for correct orders. Then watch him walk away. Obviously, both of these responses were extremely wrong. The result can be imagined.