domestic big baby answered the question How to deal with the problem of trend deviation between different cycles?

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domestic big baby

It is actually very easy to solve the problem of the contradiction between the cycles encountered in the transaction.

For friends who do not know the trend signals between different periods, the root cause is the uncertainty of the level of their own trading strategies. To give a simple example, many traders analyze the market mainly based on the daily chart cycle, but choose the one-hour cycle chart as the cycle for formulating strategies. This situation is not uncommon, and it often happens among novices.

For this kind of situation, what I want to emphasize is that we must be clear that analyzing the market and formulating strategies are two completely different parts and should not be confused. The two cannot replace each other but complement each other, and complement each other.

On the other hand, I think what I still need to emphasize to the subject is that the international capital market is a 24-hour all-day trading session, which is divided into three components: the Asian market in the morning, the European market in the afternoon and the American market in the evening. Among the three, the market trends are essentially different. The Asian session is mainly a continuation or callback of the previous night’s US market; the European session is unstable when the market has just started; It is the main trend period of the variety of the day, but it fluctuates greatly.

Therefore, according to the daily trend of these three regional varieties, traders will be more inclined to the US market, followed by the European market, and finally the Asian market. Therefore, combining the three regional trading periods, it will naturally not be difficult to answer the question that returns to the subject. When the trends shown by the large and small cycles are contrary to each other, we are more accustomed to choosing to wait for opportunities. This opportunity is to enter the market when the trends of the large and small cycles are consistent.

The large cycle and the small cycle have different usage aspects in the formulation of a transaction. Under normal circumstances, the large cycle is used to establish the trend of the variety, while the small cycle is often used to confirm the timing of the entry and exit of the variety. This way of dealing with large and small cycles is equivalent to the fact that there are two adjustment bands in the impulsive wave in "Wave Theory", and the adjustment wave contains at least two impulsive bands. They all need to be connected alternately between the adjustment section and the drive section so as to move forward.

Therefore, when the direction of the trend judged by the large cycle is contrary to the direction of the small cycle, it is likely that the small cycle chart is undergoing temporary technical adjustments. We'd better wait for the end of the small cycle adjustment, and then do unilateral trading with the same trend as the large cycle.

Some friends will ask, will it be a market change in direction when the trend has just started? Because although the small period is unstable, it is more sensitive to the signal of trend conversion than the large period. Of course this happens, and it happens every day. This requires us to be clear. This is also the trading idea recognized by international trading masters, "it is best to do trading in the third wave". Trading is about making rational trade-offs. There is no need to take risks with the bullets in your hands when the market is unstable. It is best for us to choose wisely to ignore such short-term trend-changing time periods.

Generally speaking, the safest and most sensible choice for the conversion between large and small cycles is to choose when the large and small cycles resonate. Because, for real money, there is no need to compete with the market to try your guts.

Last updated: 08/02/2023 21:58

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金口预言

It’s been a while since I’ve traded, so I’m reluctant to answer a wave. In fact, it’s normal for there to be a conflict between a large cycle and a small cycle!

The market always goes up and down alternately, and the big cycle is the evolution of the small cycle.

For this, you need to know the relationship between large and small cycles, and then make your own judgment, determine the size of the opportunity, and then determine the size of the position to achieve stable profits and control the retracement of returns.

Let me share with you the relationship between the big cycle and the small cycle, hoping to help you:

a. A small cycle promotes a large cycle.

b. The small cycle obeys the big cycle.

c. The inflection point of the trend in the large cycle triggers competition in the small cycle.

d. The large cycle limits the small cycle interval.

The relationship between big and small cycles needs to be savored carefully.

How to use it? In general, the larger cycle of the target cycle judges the trend and the size of the opportunity. Look for accurate buying and selling points in the small week of the target cycle.

Last updated: 08/01/2023 19:33

我的意中人

In our trading process, there will be a misunderstanding for friends who are just getting started, and that is the misunderstanding about the use of K-line. What about most cases? Many friends ask me what time period graphics should I look at for trading. In fact, for technical analysis, all cycle graphics have their significance. There is no absolute transaction that can be completed only by looking at one or a few graphics.

Now let’s talk about the wrong operation methods under the common phenomenon, one is to keep a complete eye on the market during the transaction, and the other is to look at the minute chart to make transactions.

Let me first talk about the benefits of looking at the minute chart for trading. A friend who is new to the market will have a high desire to trade, and this desire will make him want to trade all the time. So the graph that fits his trading mentality is obviously not the medium-to-long-term chart of the hourly or daily line. By their natural selection, they would concentrate on trading on the minute chart. Minute charts include 30-minute, 15-minute, 10-minute, 5-minute, and 1-minute candlestick charts. The short-term graphics respond quickly to market changes, the frequency of changes is relatively high, the operation is more exciting, and there are more opportunities to enter the market. But things have two sides. It is not enough to just see the good side. Changes are quick and responsive. This feature reminds me of the KD indicator. The disadvantage of the KD indicator is the high error rate. The purpose of our trading is to make money, and the increase in the error rate will directly affect our income, which can also be said to be his fatal injury.

According to our consistent process of doing transactions, judging the direction is the first priority, that is, we must line up in the right team. Blindly entering the market without even analyzing the direction at that time is undoubtedly suicidal.

The graph should be seen from the big to the small, that is, first look at the daily or weekly chart to judge the direction. The 4-hour or hourly chart can also be used to judge direction, but the time frame of its influence will be relatively small. When you have judged the direction, you can start your operation. At this time, look at the minute chart to choose the appropriate entry point according to the short-term trend. In other words, we don’t look at the minute chart when we make trading decisions, and it is necessary to pay attention to the minute chart only after we have made a decision. Generally, the validity period of the signal impact on the daily line is 1-3 weeks, 4 hours affects 1-4 days, hourly affects 3-6 hours, and it is not necessary to look at the minute chart to judge the direction.

Last updated: 08/05/2023 07:34

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