How to judge whether the support line can be supported?

Whether it can be broken or not, no one can know in advance.

If it is an uptrend now, we draw an uptrend line. That is the support line.

If the price falls back and falls near the support line, then I have two strategies at this time.

The first is that I think the trend can continue upwards, so I will buy on dips. If it continues to fall and falls below the support line, I will admit my mistake and stop the loss.

Secondly, it is believed that the trend may reverse and the support may fail. But at the moment he's not disabled, right? So I just wait, and when it effectively breaks below the support line, I enter the market and go short. Then if the decline does not continue, but instead rises, and the rise breaks the support line, then choose to stop the loss.

Both approaches are feasible and logical. There are hypotheses, strategies, tests, and treatments.

Corresponding to this third way of thinking. is wrong, what is that? That is, when it falls near the trend line, it is predicted in advance that it may fall below the line. So before it fell below, I started shorting.

As far as a single transaction is concerned, this time it may be right. That is to say, you will make money. And the price cost is better, it is better than waiting stupidly for the price to fall below and then go short. Appear smarter.

But in fact, this way of thinking has a strong subjective predictive color. Lack of consistency in the long run. We all know that a strategy that lacks consistency is unlikely to succeed in the long run.

Therefore, even if the list is empty in advance, the price is good and the profit is high, but it is wrong.

So let's analyze these three ideas. Although the first two have different views on the direction of long and short. But they all use pressure to support this theory, assuming that this kind of thing exists, and the effect can be tested, and they can build trading strategies based on the test results. The difference between the two is that one assumes that the support will work, and the other assumes that the support will fail.

And the third one is not based on assumptions, but on subjective predictions. The core component in the construction of its trading strategy is its own opinion, not the feedback given by the market.

Therefore, in the actual operation, no one can know in advance whether the support line is valid, so when the price reaches the support line, first carry out the multi-single band stop loss operation, and hold it right (such as positions 1 and 2 in the above figure), If you make a wrong stop loss and leave the market, step back on the trend line and enter the market with a single stop loss (as shown in Figures 3 and 4 above).

Therefore, the market is used for making, not for false speculation. You can predict the market, but you can't think that your expectations must be correct.