有脾气的k线 answered the question What are the objective laws in trading? How should these rules be applied in trading?

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有脾气的k线

Although the market is chaotic, objective laws do exist. Since laws are objective and existent things, there is no difference between useful and useless, and the results obtained are different from different perspectives. Market price behavior is irregular, but our operations can be regular.

objective law

①. The market is unpredictable, and there are conceptual errors in any thinking of forecasting components. Whether it is the future trend or the precise point, it is impossible to predict accurately every time. Just like the London gold since this period of time, as early as 1800, some people predicted that 2000 would be the end of the gold rally. In the end, the highest price of gold stopped at 2074. Will this price be the historical high in the future? I am afraid that no one can know the exact answer to this question. After all, the uncertainty of the market trend is the objective law of the trading market. If you know this concept, you will not pursue accurate point analysis during the trading process.

②. Zero-sum market, a place for gambling. The capital market is a large-scale casino, and we traders are just gamblers participating in it. Fighting long and short, some people must make money and others lose money. In the material form of speculation, the pursuit of profit is our ultimate goal. A zero-sum market or a negative-sum market will not have the possibility of a win-win situation, which is also an objective law of the trading market.

③. Barrett's law (28th law). It can be said that any industry follows the powerful 80-20 law. The people who can make money in the trading market will eventually be a minority. If you do not have a deep understanding of this law and enter the market with a mortal heart, you may still lose money. one of the. Therefore, trading is not the only way to make money, and full-time trading requires risk assessment. Knowing the 80/20 rule, do you still think that you will definitely make a profit in foreign exchange trading? This is not to persuade you to give up, sometimes giving up is also a choice.

④. It is impossible for the market to have no quotations. We may often hear people say, "This stock will definitely go up today", gold must reach a certain price, and so on. Sometimes I admire the courage of these people and lament their ignorance. Nothing is impossible in the trading market. Warren Buffett, the stock god, had only encountered a U.S. stock market circuit breaker before this year, but this year, the U.S. stock market has been circuitous three times a day. Black swan events may happen every day, and nothing is absolute. Therefore, in the process of trading, if the direction of the market changes, there is no need to continue to insist. The trend will always change, and the trend will definitely change. Only by discovering the trend can we follow the trend.

Objective laws in analysis

①. The price will run in a trend way. We pay the most attention to the trend of the trading market when doing transactions. Although the market will not always go out of the trend, the rise and fall of the price must conform to the Dow Theory, and the continuous switching of high and low points will eventually run in the form of a trend. In my opinion, shock is also a kind of trend, and the concept of trend must be premised on cycle. The trend of the 1-hour period is only the shock of the daily cycle, and the shock of the daily chart cycle is only a trend process on the monthly chart.

②. The market price includes everything. We perceive market fluctuations through charts, whether it is the stimulation of the news or the breakthrough of the technical pressure level, after all, it is displayed in a way that we can see. This is also the theoretical basis for technical analysis. After all, transactions are completed by people, and prices are always reflected in the form of charts.

③. History will repeat itself. The country is easy to change, but the nature is difficult to change. Since the transaction is dominated by people, the weakness of human nature will continue. Human trading ideas and weaknesses will also keep price action going. In addition, different varieties have different characteristics of varieties, such as the periodicity of varieties, trading time nodes (consumption concept stocks on the eve of the Spring Festival), and other factors will make the price behavior run repeatedly.

Objective laws in trading

①. The only thing you can control is loss. The first thing that trading can do is to control risk, which is the only thing we can control in trading. The maximum loss of the transaction before each entry is controllable, and the profit can only be determined by the market.

②. Profit depends on time rather than windfall profits. Once upon a time, I also entered the trading market with a get-rich-quick approach. It is only now that I realize that only time will allow the trading industry to steadily increase the account. Huge profits are just a good expectation. Behind the huge profits are usually abnormal trading views and risks beyond control.

Laws have always existed objectively. As for how to use them, this has to be determined with your own trading system.

Last updated: 08/28/2023 17:24

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原核

There are no so-called objective laws in trading, but only your own rules. To put it simply, we have no way to summarize the objective rules that are always effective. All we can do is stick to our own trading rules.

The market is completed by people. The so-called people are unpredictable, and it is even more difficult to count individual trading behaviors, let alone regularize them. At the same time, the market is disorderly, which means that there is nothing certain in the trading market. From this perspective, there are big errors in the generalization of historical market conditions. Even the once-in-a-century market is reflected in one year. In the early stage, the U.S. stock market crashed four times a week, crude oil fell to negative value, the Swiss franc black swan incident... Wait, we don't know what will happen in the next moment... This is the status quo of the market, and the empirical induction method is forever It is impossible to touch the essence of the market!

Therefore, I think that there will be no sustainable regularity in the market at all, and all attempts to find regularity are logically problematic. However, this does not mean that statistics are meaningless. The purpose of statistics has never been to find the laws of the market, but to verify one's own trading logic.

Since it is meaningless to look for market laws, what is meaningful?

In my opinion, the market is disorderly and random and irregular is a major premise, which cannot be changed. Since you can't change it, you can only ask yourself. Trading rules are fixed and orderly. It is logical to use orderly rules to deal with a disorderly market. For example, market trends, we cannot accurately determine how the future will go. What we can do is to benefit the present. As long as the current trend does not change, Just keep following the trend. When the trend changes one day, just change your strategy.

My final conclusion is, don't look for the laws of the market, improve your own trading rules, do it if it meets it, and wait if it doesn't.

Last updated: 09/03/2023 02:13

eyv8101283

After understanding the Book of Changes, you will know that those who are good at changes cannot predict, because those who are good at changes know that everything cannot escape the following principles:

1. Cyclical, there is no eternal rise, and there is no eternal fall.

2. Game balance, things evolve with each other, and there are predictions in this process. For example: the long shadow line at the key position.

3. Trend, the future cannot be predicted 100% accurately, but you can follow the trend to obtain a high probability of success.

Last updated: 09/05/2023 01:06