Where is the difficulty in doing business?

When I suffered serious trading losses in the early days, I had a big doubt, whether trading can make money, whether anyone can really make money, and if so, where is the secret, why is it so difficult, and why was it so difficult at that time? I can't even find the direction.

From today's point of view, even though my trading is much better, I still feel that trading is not easy, but at least I have some experience, and I hope to share it with you.

The first difficulty is cognitive difficulty. As I said at the beginning, I don’t know how to start, and I can’t find the direction. This market is too noisy, the usage of various indicators, the application of various theories, and some self-created tactics. emotional transaction. As a member of the market, how to choose? I chose one, and worked on it for half a year, but I still can’t make money. The liquidation is still the same. How to choose? Are so many methods correct? Or is it that trading is not a matter of all roads leading to Rome, only one road is right? So which one is right? Technical or fundamental, how to choose?

So how to solve this difficulty? Improving cognition is the key. I personally think that the most basic first cognition is to understand that the market is unpredictable. That is to say, if you apply all the above indicator theories with the thinking of predicting the market, you will not draw correct conclusions. But if you give up predicting the market, all the above methods are very useful. What I said is a bit of a mouthful, let me give you an example. For example, the moving average indicator, if you want to use the moving average to predict the market, this is impossible, no matter what long arrangement you use, what moving average resistance pressure, you can't predict how the market will go next, because the market at the next moment will It will not go according to the indicators you set, and the trend will ignore you at all. However, if you don’t predict the market, you simply go long above the moving average and short below the moving average. From this perspective, the moving average is very useful. Basically, you can build a very good positive expectation trading system around this point.

The second difficulty is resisting temptation. In this information age, data and all kinds of information are transmitted too fast, and the real and the false are all mixed together. It is very difficult for ordinary traders to extract what is really useful to them. For example, according to the first point, you finally started trading according to a method, and then you didn’t make any money for half a year, and people in your various social media groups posted several times after a while, or It is a super big floating win list, you may not be able to sit still for a while, feel that your stuff is still too rubbish, and want to find out the method of "others", but as time passes, the doubled person may disappear And you realize that it was just the result of his huge profits. But this period of time that should have been implemented in a regular manner was wasted. So continue to implement your own method, and after another half a year, you find that a person whose trading style is very similar to yours has doubled, and your profit is less than 20%, you may be about to die of anger. So you will wonder if that person has an absolutely good optimization in this trading method that he didn't discover? So I went to look for other people's methods, and later I realized that it was only because the British pound happened to have a market suitable for this method, and you missed the British pound because of gold and crude oil. There is no magical method. Time and time again, you doubt Your system will completely consume your patience in the end, and a good trading system will completely pass you by.

The third difficulty is the details. I have stated the importance of a trading system many times in previous questions and answers. Then many friends were very interested in my system and wanted to know what my system was like. I also replied to this friend at that time. I said that it would be a long story, because the trading system is a very large System, I said that the main core content of my trading system is the turtle trading rule, but I changed the parameters. In the rule, it is a breakthrough of 20 days. I changed it to 15 days. Then there is an increase strategy in the rule. I choose not to Increase the position, the other turtle rules are no different. But even if I say this, I believe that not many people will really use it. Just look at the rules of knowing it. If such a classic book is just left there, not many people will use it. The reason is also very simple. First, the large retracement is very difficult to persist. Sometimes it is normal to not make a profit for a year or two. The second is that it needs details, just like a person whose main body is placed there, without sight, hearing, taste, cold, heat, touch, and emotional changes, cannot be regarded as a normal person. The same is true for the trading system. These details take a long time to polish. It also took me more than a year and nearly two years to complete it, and it is precisely these details, as long as you have a little omission, the market will crazily attack this weak link when you are not paying attention. For example, fund management, how to manage it properly? I said that a single product should not exceed 2% of the position, and the overall position should not exceed 10%. How many people do this? There will always be people who say that the capital utilization rate is low, the efficiency is too low, etc., so this is the understanding of details, and everyone is different. Not necessarily mine is right, what you find comfortable and manageable in the end is right for you, and this takes my time, and the time is not short, and it is not easy for ordinary people to persist, so this difficult.

The fourth difficulty is high expectations. Many people have good methods in every way, they have a trading system, and they have done a good job in every link. But I can’t pass this level. Why is the expectation high? Because this is the original intention of most people to trade the market. If you don’t make a lot of money in the market, why bother? This is the thinking of many people, so he has great expectations for his trading, but once he fails to meet this expectation, his mentality will be affected, and it may affect the way of operation. For example, a sudden heavy position, or a lucky one-time carry, as long as it occurs once, there is a high probability that all efforts will come to naught, because you do nothing but two results, the first failure, then no matter the heavy position or dead carry once, you will be punished It caused a lot of damage, and the profitability of your trading system may not be that strong. The damage this time is very exhausting, and you may not have the patience to maintain it. The second is that you succeeded this time. Since you succeeded, you have tasted the sweetness. There will be a next time, after all, there will be one that cannot be escaped. So from the source, we should lower our expectations, just trade according to the rules, leave everything to the market, and let the trend give you the final answer.

Are you satisfied with this answer?

Thank you for the invitation. When I first saw this question, I felt that the question was too big and I couldn’t answer it. After thinking about it slowly, I finally cleared up my thoughts. Thank you for your invitation, which made me understand another question.

Let me invite the old master Confucius. Confucius said: "When I have five out of ten, I am determined to learn; at thirty, I stand up; at forty, I am not confused; at fifty, I know the destiny; To use this sentence to describe things, I guess Confucius will get tired of me. The purpose of trading is to make money, and it is to make money as you want while avoiding risks, which is what Confucius said to do as you want without breaking the rules. First of all, you must know which risks you should avoid and which opportunities belong to you, so that you can make the right choices. Then traders must first choose their own convincing trading philosophy, establish a trading system that suits them, all of which belong to the category of "establishment", and then study and practice seriously (willing to learn). During the actual operation, many problems will be found, such as the indicator failure leading to system deviations, such as rapid price fluctuations, the stop loss is not closed as expected, such as rapid price fluctuations, and the slow response of the system leads to substantial profit taking. Many problems began to emerge with the increase of trading time. Based on the thinking of solving problems when encountering problems, you will gradually find a method that suits you to solve the problems. In order to achieve the height of "not confused", from "confused" with problems to "not confused" after solving the problem, this process is very training. When solving problems, you will know your own abilities, that is, "know your destiny", know what problems you are good at dealing with, and know where your shortcomings are. Because of this, one enters the realm of "shun". Here, "shun" has three meanings. One is conformity. It is precisely because you know what you are good at that you will follow the trend. The second is to bear, also because you know your own shortcomings, and you can only accept the fact that you cannot change it. The third is to understand by analogy. Whether it is a person or an object, each has its own strengths and weaknesses. Knowing that we must obey the great realm of "shun", we naturally know what to do and what not to do, that is, "follow your heart's desire without breaking the rules".

What is the difficulty of the transaction? Rational positioning. The soul of trading is rationality, rationally give yourself a correct position, especially the issue of profit rate, at different stages, the profit rate should also be adjusted appropriately. First look at where you are, "Stand up", "Aspire to learn", "Don't be confused", "Know the destiny", "Listen to your ears", and "Follow your heart". After the correct positioning, you can rationally adjust your actions at any time. Only by rationally controlling yourself and not making big mistakes can you advance step by step to the highest point of making money as you like.

The little horse thought the road was narrow, but the young eagle spread its wings and hated the sky. Every trader enters the market with a good dream and starts trading, but few of them can reach the end point they want, and most of them fail without entering the stage of confusion. It is because there is no rational understanding of the market and no rational positioning of oneself. The difficulty of trading is to rationally recognize yourself and give yourself an accurate position.

The words of the family are inevitably biased. I only hope that from what I have seen, it can be helpful to you. Thank you again for your question, the road is not easy to walk, but do it and cherish it, I wish you good luck.

There is a 80/20 rule in any investment market, but in the foreign exchange market, this ratio is even smaller. Why is this ratio smaller? The reason is that the foreign exchange market is much more risky than other markets. So where is the difficulty? In fact, the author believes that the first difficulty lies in the mentality. Everyone knows that the foreign exchange market makes money very quickly, but it is easy to ignore that losing money is also very fast. Traders often only look at profits and do not consider the consequences of losses. This is also human nature. Greed is dominant. If you earn more, you want to earn more. If you lose, you don’t want to get out. You have to make a profit all the time. Often the consequence of doing this is to leave the market with a loss.

Secondly, it is difficult to operate. There are many kinds of operation methods in foreign exchange trading, such as pyramid building, price averaging method, reverse operation method, etc. It is not good to master all these operation methods, but to master one that suits you. That's fine, don't think that the more the better, the more you think, the more likely to confuse you;

The second is the operation strategy, which accounts for about 30%. The correct strategy will make profits at any time, but the wrong strategy will not have ideal profits no matter how it is operated, and the strategy is not a simple one. It is as simple as long and short, but to analyze and grasp the market, use the existing and learned knowledge to judge the market, and then formulate a suitable and correct trading strategy.

Finally, in terms of capital risk control, in foreign exchange transactions, some go from small to big, and some go from big to small, which is closely related to capital risk management and position control. The author has also seen many so-called analysts in the market give Thinking about the idea, XX is going long at the current price of XX lots, and XX is closing the position at XX lots. This can basically be regarded as a layman. Position control is a percentage, not a trading volume. Anyone who prompts the trading volume is mostly a liar who charges handling fees. Position control is the same no matter on any platform. No matter how much margin you are trading, the position control is fixed. I don’t like heavy positions. Stable and light positions are more important than anything else. Opportunities often come, so take it slowly That's it.

The above are some simple opinions of the author, I hope they can help you

Everyone has different feelings about the difficulty of foreign exchange speculation, but according to the survey, most people said that the following two points are the difficulties that everyone has experienced:

1. Do not have basic foreign exchange trading knowledge and skills. Thinking of foreign exchange trading is too simple, not distinguishing the true and false of platform providers, not understanding the market supply and demand chain, not understanding market trend changes, ignorant to enter the foreign exchange market and returning.

2​Unable to control the state of mind. It is difficult to combine knowledge and action in trading, and conduct impulsive trading irrationally, making profits and complaining about losses.

Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. The idea of ​​adapting to changes is not suitable for the ever-changing foreign exchange market. Only by constantly reminding yourself (knowledge, skills, and mentality) can you adapt to the market and make the most correct and decisive trading decisions. ​

In the early years, I heard a master say: Those who have five times in one year are like crucian carp crossing the river, and those who have doubled in five years are very few.

You may have speculative short-term profits, but it is difficult to have continuous protection.

Let’s briefly add a few industry insiders:

First, there are too many black platforms, and the funds and platforms are all abroad, which is very likely to lose everything.

Second, foreign exchange fluctuates greatly, and the risk will be great if it is not done well.

Third, foreign exchange operation skills are difficult to learn, and you need to pay a lot of tuition fees in real money, and you may not be able to learn it well.

Fourth, it is difficult for people to control their own weaknesses, which is why many master traders rarely die well in the end, let alone ordinary people.

Where is the difficulty in trading? Regarding this issue, I think the most difficult part of trading should be to form your own stable and profitable trading system through continuous difficult choices.

Since it is a difficult choice, what are you choosing? In fact, there are many things to choose from. To form a trading system, a stable and profitable trading system, we need to choose——

First, what cycle do you do? So many cycles: There are so many cycles of three minutes, five minutes, one hour, four hours, daily line, weekly line, etc. Which cycle fits our rhythm? Which cycle fits our trading system? Many people have gone through many, many years, but they have not decided which cycle they should do.

Second, technical indicators and technical forms, what technical indicators should we choose for trading? There are so many countless technical indicators, including classic technical indicators, and the technical indicators created by netizens are also tens of thousands and gimmicky. After many years of being an indicator scientist, a novice became a veteran. Suddenly one day, he realized that indicators are useless at all. He only needs to use one indicator well, and even no indicators can be used for naked k trading. Know where to buy, where to sell, where to increase positions, and where to place stop losses. However, if he hadn't gone through so many years of research, he wouldn't have come to this step in the end.

Third, fund management and risk control. How to do fund management and risk control? How much is the risk control of a single transaction appropriate? This is a very important part of the trading system. He is directly related to whether we can survive in this market. What is our opening quantity? How many times do we have to open positions? How much risk do you take each time you open a position? If I make mistakes ten times in a row, am I still living in this market?

Then there are many other things to choose. To form a perfect trading system, there are too many things to choose and places to make decisions, so I won’t expand them one by one here.

Choose to choose, no matter which side makes the choice, it is ultimately to form our perfect trading logic, that is, to form our stable and profitable trading system. Once this transaction logic is opened up, you will find that everything works. All the choices are linked together in the end, and they are perfectly connected together.

Why do you say they will interlock perfectly? Because in the end you will find that you have actually formed a very clear trading logic. It is the amount of capital you have that determines how big a cycle you can do. How many mistakes you want to make and still have most of the funds determine the risk of your single transaction. The risk of a single transaction and the stop loss range in the technical form determine the size of your position. . . . .

In the end, everyone will find that the trading systems of the trading masters are actually very, very simple, just a few trading rules, which verifies the truth that the trading masters say is simple.

But what needs to be reminded for novices is: the trading logic of masters is indeed very, very simple, but before they form this simple trading logic, they may have experienced many, many years or even ten years of loss-making trading careers. They made countless difficult choices before choosing the last few, reaching the realm where they can easily make money just by looking at them twice a day.

It’s hard to control yourself anymore. Luckily, I resist the order in my heart. I feel that doing orders is greed. It’s hard to control myself.

I have been speculating in foreign exchange for 5 years. If you count the stock experience, I have speculated for more than 8 years. I can tell you responsibly that the difficulty of foreign exchange lies in: no method is effective for a long time. Any strategy has applicable stages, such as low volatility environment, high volatility environment, unilateral market, and volatile market. Even for a strategy, the most suitable parameters for different years are not the same, sometimes the parameters are too sensitive, sometimes too slow. A birthday star is a huge profit, but it is difficult to have a birthday star in this market, that is to say, it is almost impossible to have a huge profit in this market. The successful people you see are not much different from those who win the lottery. They are all survivor effects.

The first difficulty in foreign exchange investment: using leverage, leverage actually magnifies your weaknesses in character, talent, and skills, and at the same time reduces your advantages in these three aspects; the second difficulty: two-way trading. If you can only go long, theoretically you will have a 50% probability of making a profit in each transaction. Now you can go long and short, only 25% left. (For laymen, don’t question this point. I believe that the vast majority of participants have the experience of repeatedly doing long and short on a certain product and being stopped continuously); the third difficulty: always contradictory. Sometimes you have to believe in yourself until the end, and sometimes you have to admit defeat immediately. No experience is not enough, too much experience is harmful. The fourth difficulty: keep evolving. The methods that made profits in the past will inevitably fail in the future, and the time from being effective to becoming invalid is getting shorter and shorter. The method of losing money in the past has always been effective.

As far as my own situation is concerned, it is difficult to control my mentality and freedom. Absolute freedom is an absolute loss. After losing several times, I can't adjust my mentality immediately, and I don't follow the rules I set! learn a lesson

The difficulty lies in the lack of market discipline, the difficulty lies in the greed of children

There is a logic that many people get wrong, um, it is a long-term effective method. This logic is wrong, and the correct logic is an effective method at a certain stage, which means timing and situation selection. For example, in the stock market, the time line and trend line of the bull market have a set of gameplay for the bull market, which is to take it dead. The timeline and trendline of the band have a set of playing methods of the band. Both of them exist in the historical line of this market, but they appear in different periods. Times make heroes in this world, not heroes make times. If Buffett hadn’t encountered the great economic growth of globalization and industrialization, and the large number of leveraged buybacks of listed companies in the United States created long-term bubbles, the person in this position must not be him now, because His gameplay fits the current situation, and the times make heroes. If you are in the band, you have to wait for the trend of the band and then make a move. Regardless of your routine, your first job is to avoid all risks and benefits beyond your ability, and then wait for the time that suits you to appear, and then the time creates a hero, and you are the king of that period. There is no method that is absolutely effective for a long time, but any method has its own effective time and situation, regardless of your routine, whether it is business, investment, or gambling, timing and situation selection are very important.

The rare thing is that the mentality is not calm, and after losing an order, the mentality explodes, causing the thinking of the following orders to be unclear, which will lead to a lot of losses

Thank you for the invitation, I am in Mongolia and just got off my horse.

Why is it difficult to trade? Where is the difficulty?

Because the transaction itself is a very anti-human thing, why? Because you will lose money, is it uncomfortable to lose money? It's very uncomfortable, very uncomfortable, it's like a blunt knife cutting through your body, does it hurt you? It hurts. Therefore, anxiety arises. If you don’t know how to trade, you will be anxious. If you do too well, you will be anxious. If you are swept away, you will be anxious.

There are too many things to worry about in the transaction. Last night in the group, Huiyou lost red eyes because of buying bottom crude oil. His own risk control was very problematic. Finally, he insisted on talking about the problem of the platform. He suspected that the platform did not throw his order to the market. Ask us blankly, what platform is reliable, and the concept of futures and spot goods is unclear. Hey, no one can persuade us. I don’t know if it is the sorrow of our generation or the sorrow of this era. It is not easy to barely survive in the market. Do you think it is difficult to speculate in foreign exchange?

As for where is the future? Who knows, right?

Difficult in my own heart, after all, it is a matter of probability

The difficulty lies in cognition. The cognition of veterans is obviously more than that of novices, and the cognition difference of veterans lies in the paranoia of cognition. That is to say, there is actually only one correct cognition in the end, and there are 99 false cognitions. Veterans of 99 false cognitions do not recognize the existence probability of one kind, and always want to prove several correct cognitions. Thinking that there is more than one kind of existence, in the end, I still have to admit that I have lost! However, 10 years have passed, and it took 7 years to prove myself wrong!

Personally, I think it is difficult to restrain subjective thoughts

It is difficult to break through yourself, the essence lies outside the transaction

    Many people, including many celebrities, say that there are three types of market conditions: rising, falling, and turbulent. Although this statement is correct, it will not help you. ​In fact, the speculative market is very simple in nature. There are only two states, equilibrium state and breakthrough state. Of course, breakthroughs include upward breakthroughs and downward breakthroughs, because there is no procedural difference between long and short in the foreign exchange market, so it can be regarded as a state. ​What we have to do is to judge the current market status, and then carry out our operation. very simple, right?

    But just like two circuits of 0 and 1 can form an extremely complex program, even if there are only two states of balance and breakthrough, it is enough to form a dazzling market state. In essence, the development of speculative trading market is anti-human. We often find that the more successful people are in real life, the more they fail after speculation. And the real trading ghosts either come from humble beginnings, experience ups and downs, or die forever. In short, only those who can make a profound breakthrough from the perspective of human nature can survive and grow in this industry. Even if normal people can obtain huge profits in the short term, as long as they continue to trade, they will end up with nothing in the end.

​ First, the big market that can make money is itself anti-human. Any organization or individual hopes that the selling price of any commodity will be stable. Especially the exchange rate of foreign exchange, no country wants its currency exchange rate to jump up and down, even if it continues to appreciate or depreciate, it is not a good thing. There are many cases in history where large-scale changes in the exchange rate lead to the collapse of the national economy, so I will not repeat them here. Even traders in the spot business expect prices to be smooth and regular. There are probably only speculators in the world who desperately hope that the market price will fluctuate sharply in order to provide him with profit opportunities.

    Second, any trading system is anti-human. A well-educated or experienced person who is more successful in life must be logical and organized. Many successful people in reality hope that their life experience can continue to work in speculative trading, but most of them are disappointed. They will find that any efforts to find logical laws and causal relationships in the speculative market are in vain, and any trading analysis textbooks and trading manuals are useless. You have to look for the law that is not the law in the irregular. This kind of law is absolutely anti-human.

   Third, the risk of speculative trading is anti-human. In real life, if you earn 100 million, you can definitely call it a success. Just like Wang Duoyu, it is difficult to spend it all. That is to say, the more money you have in real life, the lower the risk you face. But in speculative trading, no matter how much money you make, it can only show your current success. As long as you are ready to continue trading, maybe a week or even a night, you can return to the starting point. The bigger your account is in speculative trading, the closer your risk will be to infinity. No matter how much money you have, it is not enough to lose money here.

    In Buddhist scriptures, the Buddha often called all living beings "upside-down beings", because all living beings insist on falsehood as truth, so they are upside down and confused​, and it is difficult to escape from the sea of ​​suffering. The same is true for speculative trading. Once you have a heart, hope, and support, you will inevitably be confused, sink into the sea of ​​​​suffering, and never escape.

I don't say what others say, I think that every stage has its own difficulties. The newcomer stage lies in the platform and trading technology. Some reckless people may become leeks on black platforms because they want to make money. More practical and rational people will most likely be ridiculed by the market at the beginning, and will repeatedly question themselves and study indicators crazily. Later, when I have experience and know a little bit about the market, I will worry about the winning rate again, because I will no longer demand myself with a novice mentality, and my expectations of myself will become higher, and the trading mentality will easily become dominant here. Many things cannot be carried out according to my plan. I am currently at this stage. I have not yet experienced the difficulties in the future, and I can’t express them. I really hope that I can experience them earlier.