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Due to the intensification of geopolitical tensions, the support level offset the blow of the unexpected non-farm payrolls report in September, and the gold price started a new week in the form of a bullish gap and climbed to a positive area above US$1,858.

Fundamentals

Since the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged on September 20, gold seems to be on the right track after a series of sharp falls and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report in September pushed the price of gold to a new seven-month low of US$1,810.46.

Nevertheless, the latest weekly gold price survey shows that agencies and investors have different views on the prospect of gold in the week ending on October 13.

Darin Newsom, a senior market analyst at Barchart.com, expects gold prices to rise this week. Darin Newsom said, "December gold seems to be expected to complete a bullish reversal in the 1D timeframe last Friday." "After breaking through Thursday's high of US$1,843.50, this may be a key reversal. Critical reversal is often a more reliable model. If so, this will show that despite the strength of the USD, the short-term trend has turned. " But Darin Newsom warned that the long-term downward trend still exists.

Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, said he was bearish on gold, but gold was at an important depletion level, and it was probably time to return to the market.

"All technical data points to a lower level." But these fatigue levels are exactly where investors should test the market. If this situation continues, we may see the beginning of a new long-term bullish market structure."

James Stanley, a senior market strategist, believes that the price of gold may remain in the near future this week. He said: "Although we may bottom out at the beginning of this week, the increase will remain unchanged." "Last week, gold showed a Relative Strength Index of less than 20 in the 1D timeframe. This situation is rare and has only happened three times in the past 20 years. The threshold for continuing to sell is very high; Considering how quickly all prices are digested, and the low point in March is just below such a price. At present, this feels a bit like a trap."

James Stanley doesn't think the pullback will definitely bottom out, although he says it is possible. James Stanley said, "I think this is more of an oversold pullback, which lays the foundation for sellers to show their strengths at high and low resistance levels, especially if we still see the yield increase."

This week, 13 Wall Street analysts participated in the survey of gold price trends. Five experts (38%) expect the price of gold to rise this week, while the same number of experts predict that the price of gold will fall. Three analysts (23%) are neutral about gold in the coming week.

At the same time, online polls cast 528 votes. Among them, 227 retail investors (43%) expect the price of gold to rise this week. Another 222 respondents (42%) expect the price to be lower, while 79 respondents (15%) are ambiguous about the recent trend of gold prices.

As investors rekindled the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the price of gold started a new week with a bullish gap and climbed to a positive area above US$1,848. In one fell swoop, it reversed the overall bearish prospect because of the death cross between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. We believe that as the momentum index turns from negative to positive; In the short term, the XAUUSD is expected to rise further to the range of US$1,868, and then return to the recent low to cover the gap.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices opened the week on a higher note, with bulls resisting a test of second resistance at US$1,858 after hitting first resistance at US$1,948 on Monday. Nonetheless, growing uncertainty over the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has prompted investors to turn to safer assets and is likely to continue to boost demand for safe-haven assets for the rest of the week.

Gold has improved technically in the 1D timeframe after two straight weeks of sharp selling. This is a continuation of last Friday's positive close, marking the end of nine consecutive days of declines.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index has again risen to its midpoint, confirming a weakening of the market's bearish trend. Similarly, the Average Directional Index (ADX) may have peaked and is moving slightly lower; this suggests that the recent decline may be over. More importantly, the Stochastic Oscillator has broken above its SMA and is poised to break out of its oversold zone. If this happens, it can be seen as a strong bullish signal.

Overall, the recent gold price has found the necessary strength to respond after a sharp drop, but to continue the current rebound, they need strong support from momentum indicators, and their recent actions will be highly dependent on news, and further escalation of conflicts will bring support to the gold price. It is recommended to buy low and sell high on the analog chart.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction:Long

Entry price: 1848

Target price: 1878

Stop loss: 1803

Deadline: 2023-10-24 23:55:00

Support: 1846, 1843, 1832, 1823

Resistance: 1855, 1862, 1878, 1884