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[Quick Facts]

1. Fed's Kashkari: Over-tightening is preferable to doing too little.

2. Fed's Cook: Rising yields are not tied to the monetary policy outlook.

3. Global supply-chain pressure hits a record low.

4. Biden calls for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

5. Polish president asks the prime minister to form a new government.

6. Putin decides to run for president again next year.

[News Details]

Fed's Kashkari: Over-tightening is preferable to doing too little

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Monday, 7 November, that he doesn't think the rate hike cycle is over. To bring inflation back to the 2% target, over-tightening monetary policy is preferable to doing too little. The current under-tightening will not get us back to 2% in a reasonable time. More data is needed to make a firm decision on future interest rate decisions. We can't say we're in a good position yet.

Fed's Cook: Rising yields are not tied to the monetary policy outlook

The recent rise in long-term U.S. bond yields does not seem to have been driven by investor expectations of further interest rate increases, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said on Monday, November 7, drawing a key distinction in how those market-based rates may be assessed within the central bank.

If bond yields rise because the market expects the Fed to tighten policy further, this will pose a challenge for Fed policymakers, forcing them to take action based on these expectations; while if the climb in bond yields is driven by other factors, it can lead to tighter financial conditions and help slow demand and inflation, regardless of whether the Fed takes further action.

Decompositions between changes in expected rates and term premiums depend on the specific models and assumptions used, Cook said. "But I would say that an expectation of higher near-term policy rates does not appear to be causing the increase in longer-term rates."

Global supply-chain pressure hits a record low

Global logistics difficulties are at a 26-year low as transportation costs keep declining, a New York Fed indicator shows. The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index fell to -1.74 in October, the lowest level since records began in 1997. Zero represents the historical average, with both upward and downward movements marking standard deviations away from that trend. The index has been negative for nine consecutive months. It aggregates 27 variables that measure everything from cross-border transportation costs to national and regional manufacturing data.

Biden calls for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire

U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a "tactical pause" in the Israel-Hamas war to allow more aid to reach Gaza and improve the chances of hostages being released.

The Israeli army has now surrounded Gaza's main cities and is heavily bombarding the besieged Gaza Strip. John Kirby, a spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, said Biden told Netanyahu in a phone call that Washington would "continue to advocate for a temporary localized pause in the fighting". But the Biden administration does not support a full ceasefire, which U.S. officials said would only give Hamas time to regroup.

Polish president asks the prime minister to form a new government

Polish President Andrzej Duda announced on November 6 that he had given the task of forming a new government to the incumbent prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki of the Law and Justice party.

According to parliamentary tradition, the party that wins the parliamentary election gets the chance to form a government. After analyses and consultations, Duda decided to give the task of forming the government to PM Morawiecki. If the Law and Justice Party fails to form a government, then the Sejm, the lower house, will nominate a prime minister, whom the president will immediately appoint to form a government. Duda emphasized that all constitutional rules and time frames will be respected.

Duda also announced the appointment of Marek Sawicki from the Polish People's Party as interim speaker of the Sejm until the new parliament elects a new speaker. The Polish People's Party is one of the parties that make up the Third Way coalition. The new parliament will hold its first meeting on November 13.

Putin decides to run for president again next year

Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to run for the presidency in March next year, a move that will keep him in power until at least 2030, as he believes he must lead the country through its most dangerous period in decades, six sources said, according to Reuters. News of Putin's decision has spread and his advisers are preparing for the campaign and Putin's election, the sources said. A diplomatic source said on condition of anonymity that Putin had recently made the decision and would announce it soon. Some polls show that Putin's approval rating in Russia is as high as 80%, so if he runs for the presidency, he is very likely to be the next president.

[Focus of the Day]

UTC+8 11:30 Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision for November

UTC+8 22:50 Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid speaks

UTC+8 00:30 Next Day: Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki speaks

UTC+8 01:00 Next Day: New York Fed President Williams speaks

UTC+8 02:30 Next Day: Dallas Fed President Logan speaks

UTC+8 03:30 Next Day: ECB Governing Council member Negel speaks in London