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[Quick Facts]

1. U.S. inflation fell more than expected in October.

2. WSJ's Timiraos writes that the Fed's rate hikes may have been over.

3. IEA raises its forecast for global oil growth for this year and next.

4. U.S. SEC fines the crypto industry nearly $5 bln in fiscal 2023.

5. Russia's seaborne oil volumes decline.

[News Details]

U.S. inflation fell more than expected in October

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in October, lower than September's 3.7% and the expected 3.3%, and the month-on-month growth slowed to 0 from 0.4% in September, also lower than the expected 0.1%.

In addition, core inflation excluding food and energy costs, which the Fed is more concerned about, recorded a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4% in October, a new low since September 2021. U.S. core CPI in October recorded a monthly rate of 0.2%, a new low since July this year. Several overseas analysts said the CPI report is good news for the Fed because it proves that monetary policy is still effective. The possibility of a rate hike in December can be ruled out. Meanwhile, Bank of America expects the Fed to cut rates starting next June.

WSJ's Timiraos writes that the Fed's rate hikes may have been over

Inflation's broad slowdown extended through October, likely ending the Federal Reserve's historic interest-rate increases, the Wall Street Journal's (WSJ) journalist Nick Timiraos wrote in a joint article. The inflation report sparked volatility in the stock and bond markets as investors believed the Fed had ended its rate hikes and turned their attention to when officials might start cutting rates.

The article also noted that because of the latest CPI, investors in the interest rate futures market withdrew their previous bets on further Fed rate hikes this December and next January, and began to project an earlier rate-cut time, with the probability of a rate cut in May rising to more than 50%.

By holding rates steady next month, the Fed would be extending its current pause to around six months, Timiraos added. That pause has coincided with a gradual slowdown in hiring and with strong consumer spending, fueling optimism that the central bank is for now achieving a so-called soft landing for the economy that brings inflation down without a big increase in joblessness.

IEA raises its forecast for global oil growth for this year and next

The latest International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly report shows that the demand in 2023 was supported by a resurgence in U.S. deliveries and China's record demand in September. The IEA raised its forecast for 2023 global oil demand growth to 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) from the previous forecast of 2.3 million bpd; at the same time, the IEA also said that the oil market will experience a shortage of supply by the end of the year. While next year's overall economic and oil demand growth is expected to lose momentum, the organization's demand expectations for next year are supported by hopes for interest rate cuts and the recent drop in oil prices. It raised its forecast for 2024 global oil demand growth to 930,000 bpd from the previous forecast of 880,000 bpd. However, the global oil market will not tighten as much as expected this quarter, as rising demand has not outpaced rising supply, and an oversupply could be seen early next year.

U.S. SEC fines the crypto industry nearly $5 bln in fiscal 2023

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced on Nov. 14 local time that it prosecuted a number of Wall Street brokers as well as crypto firms in fiscal 2023 (from October 2022 to September 2023). The aforementioned enforcement actions generated a total of about $5 billion in fines, and the relevant penalized institutions were also required to refund losses to investors. This is the second-highest enforcement in SEC history in terms of total fines. The SEC said the cases it focused on involved digital currency assets, cybersecurity, and the use of unauthorized communications platforms by employees of Wall Street brokers to conduct business.

Russia's seaborne oil volumes decline

About 3.2 million bpd of crude oil were shipped from Russian ports in the week ended Nov. 12, down 40,000 bpd from the previous week but still 700,000 bpd above August levels, ship-tracking data showed. The less volatile four-week average flow fell to 3.4 million bpd, about 80,000 bpd less than the previous week. This was the lowest level in four weeks, but still more than 500,000 bpd above flows for the period ended August 20.

[Focus of the Day]

UTC+8 10:00 China Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods YoY (YTD) (Oct)

UTC+8 14:30 France ILO Unemployment Rate (SA) (Q3)

UTC+8 15:00 U.K. Core CPI MoM & Retail Prices Index MoM (Oct)

UTC+8 15:45 France CPI MoM (Oct)

UTC+8 18:00 Eurozone Industrial Output MoM (Sept)

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. PPI MoM (SA) (Oct)

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. PPI YoY & MoM (SA) (Oct)

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

U.S. NY Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

UTC+8 23:30 U.S. EIA Crude Stocks for the Week of November 10