Chapter 17  08/11 XAU/USD 依然受困下降楔形,反弹考验或来自1935

上方阻力参考: 1935、1959、1985

下方支持参考: 1900、1877、1858

日线图看,美元在CPI数据发布后的探底回升令金价延续震荡破底颓势。形态来看,市场未能摆脱下降楔形的桎梏,下行则依然锁定1900整数关口(接近6月低点)支撑。该位一破,空方将决定性开启中期下档空间。后续支撑来看,预计去年6月高点1877,以及3月6日反弹高点1858均有买盘承接力。再往下,去年2-3季度高低点多次落位的1800整数关或为空头中期目标。指标方面,MACD在零轴下方延续跌势;RSI跌近超卖线后走平,直指金价近期弱势。

08/11 XAU/USD 依然受困下降楔形,反弹考验或来自1935-Pic no.1

4小时图看,金价过去一两个时段先后触碰楔形上下轨,此前提示依旧有效,即一旦向上打破形态限制,则有望迸发一定反弹动能。随后真正的上行考验将来自前期小型复合头肩底颈线位1935(7月5日高点,接近5月低点区域)与短期跌势通道上轨交汇形成的阻力区。突破则近期弱势终有缓和,随后还将很快遭遇2月高点1959一带抛压。指标方面,MACD在零轴下方纠结下行;RSI跌近超卖线后拐头,同时底部略有抬高,为即期反弹留下窗口。

文章来源:FXTM富拓

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