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Fundamentals  

During Thursday's (November 9th) Asian session, WTI crude oil oscillated narrowly, and it is currently trading at 75.8 dollars/bbl. Yesterday, oil prices fell sharply again and once dropped to 75 (the level of early July), retracing all the gains. At present, oil prices are also significantly lower than the replenishment target of SPR, while this plummet is resulting from the outbreak of pessimistic expectations under the outbreak of bearish sentiment. Now, the impact of the oil price factors is still complex, and there is not much change in the successive sharp decline. Moreover, there is an important support at 73.8, and the trend turned weak and moved ahead of fundamentals under the flow of capital. Therefore, it is the time to use the market irrationality, and our medium-term trading focus is to catch the market irrationality. The market sentiment is always short-lived and irrational, unless there is an accelerated deterioration in demand in the late stage, these shortcomings can never hide the current low stock level. Meanwhile, a few days of the decline will offset the Russian and Saudi efforts in the past few months, according to the expectation of the U.S. replenishment of stocks and forcing the action of OPEC+ with lower prices. Yesterday, we recommended firstly to set the stop loss by $0.5 with the entering at 76, and WTI fell back after reaching 77, offering a few profits. If oil prices fall to a range from 74 to 75, it will be the best medium-term opportunity to go long.

News: Russia is considering lifting the export ban on gasoline AI92 and AI95.

Geopolitically: There will be no ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, but a humanitarian ceasefire will be allowed.

Today's focus: US Initial Jobless Claims.

Technical Analysis

Oil prices plummeted again yesterday, and they returned to the level in early July after continuous depreciation, which is also the support of the upper oscillating level from April to July. Based on the accumulated momentum, the support will be tremendous. Technically, a golden cross appeared for twice in 1 hour, reflecting a possibility that WTI crude oil may rebound in the hourly chart. At the same time, the MACD bearish momentum in the 4H chart released extremely again, and there is a Bullish Haram in the candlestick chart to reflect a possible rebound. Furthermore, the MACD dropped to the oversold area in the daily chart and closed the daily chart with a long-lower-shadow, showing a weak daily pattern. In general, there may be a rebound in small cycles, but it will take longer to expect a reverse in the daily chart.  

Today's trading recommendations: Buy at lows. If WTI plunges to 74.8, try to go long with small positions and set the stop-loss at 74.3. To take profits, the first target will be at 77.4, where investors can reduce the position size and move the stop-loss to breakeven, and put the second target at 80.0. If WTI plummets to 73.8 again, investors should enter and go long, and stop loss by 0.5 dollars. The target to take profits is the same as the first target above.  

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 74.800

Target price: 80.000

Stop loss: 74.300

Support: 74.800/73.800

Resistance: 77.400/80.000