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Fundamentals

During Tuesday's (November 14th) Asian session, WTI crude oil oscillated narrowly, and it is currently trading at 78.5 dollars/bbl. After the decline in the Asian session, WTI started to rebound in the afternoon, and once reached 78.5 in the U.S. session. The bearish factors over the weekend were digested by the depreciation in the Asian session, and WTI crude oil rebounded rapidly when news reported that the October production in Azerbaijan was 200,000 bpd less than the OPEC+ quota. Meanwhile, it was proved in the OPEC+ report that the October production was 90,000 bpd more than the September production, which was far below market expectations compared to a 2 million bpd growth in September. This figure implies an improvement in oil supply, and investors should focus on the CPI data this evening. If it supports the dollar, WTI crude oil will retrace. In contrast, WTI may test the resistance at 80. However, WTI is expected to descend shortly, and tonight's data will give the final answer.

News: The U.S. investigated 30 ship companies regarding suspected violations of transporting Russian oil, which directly raised market concerns about the Russian oil supply restraint.

Today's focus: API inventory data, the China-U.S. Summit, and the U.S. CPI.  

Technical Analysis

Oil prices rebounded again to reach a growth for 3 consecutive days yesterday, leaving a long-lower-shadow and indicating a diminishing bearish momentum. Technically, MACD is going to form a death cross in the 1H chart and is located near the Bollinger upper bands. Thus, an oscillated retracement may appear. On the contrary, with an initial ascending trend in the daily chart, WTI may surge to hit the resistance area near 80 after short-cycle retracements and mixed movements. In general, if WTI retraces to 77 during the Asian session, it will be a good opportunity to buy in. Nonetheless, if WTI surges directly to 80, it is recommended to go short after it stabilizes.

Today's trading recommendations: Buy low and sell high. If WTI plunges to 77.0, try to go long with small positions and set the stop-loss at 76.5. To take profits, the first target will be at 78.5, where investors can reduce the position size and move the stop-loss to breakeven, and put the second target at 80.0. If WTI appreciates to 80.0, investors should go short with small positions, and stop loss by 0.5 dollars. The target to take profits is also 78.5.  

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 77.800

Target price: 80.000

Stop loss: 76.500

Support: 76.800/73.800

Resistance: 78.500/80.000