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Market Review

During the Asian session on Thursday (November 16), the price of spot gold is weak volatilely, currently trading near 1958. Yesterday's U.S. retail data slipped, which is the first time since March this year, but its drop was lower than expected, pushing the dollar to rebound slightly. Yesterday's market is to focus on the stock and the demand for a rebound after the oversold. Gold prices in the Asian session did the highest rebound of 1974.5 with the help of the dollar price's weakness, and then, in the U.S. session, it fell back under pressure with the lowest fall of 1955 and closed a bear candle. In yesterday's trading, we suggested going short at 1972, which was realized, and the first take-profit target price was also realized. The trading witnessed 12 dollars in profit. Last night, the U.S. PPI fell back beyond expectations, which further suggests that the overall inflation level trend is slowing down. Although the U.S. consumer market is still resilient, the margins began to weaken. The U.S. economy has signs of weakness, which will limit the dollar's rebound to a certain extent. But with the constant huge expenditure overdraft, the U.S. government in the future will only frequently appear on the verge of closure risk. The bond supply is difficult to offer, bond yields are also difficult to provide, and the structure of bond supply and demand is destined to continue to deteriorate, which is a vicious circle of the process. Of course, we have to realize that many items of the fundamentals are just a reflection of money. It is important in strategies and light in tactics, so we should focus on the prices in trading, which is not easy to go into a paranoid dead end. In the trading industry, fickleness is not a pejorative, but precisely an excellent quality!

As for the data, the U.S. PPI rose 1.3% in October year-on-year, much weaker than the expected 1.9%, with the previous value of 2.2%; it dropped 0.5% month-on-month, the largest decline in three and a half years, much less than the expected rise of 0.1%, with the previous value rose 0.5%. U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in October year-on-year, the first decline since March this year, but its decline range was smaller than the expected 0.3%. The previous value was revised from an increase of 0.7% to an increase of 0.9%. Core retail sales rose 0.1% year-on-year, compared with expectations of an unchanged gain, with the previous value increased by 0.6%.

As for news, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a temporary spending bill, which will then be submitted to the Senate for consideration. The Senate must approve the bill and send it to U.S. President Joe Biden for his signature before 17 local time to avoid a government shutdown.

Today's focuses are U.S. initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia manufacturing index for November, and Fed official speeches.

Trend Analysis

Yesterday's gold prices surged high and fell back, once broke through the previous day's highs to 1974.5. Then it began to fall back, with the lowest falling to 1955, and it ultimately closed a long upper shadow candlestick on the bear candle. The trading is weak, and today's trading needs to focus on the support situation below the region of 1950-1953. If it breaks effectively, gold prices have the possibility of turning weak again. Currently, its 1-hour chart is close to the 60-day moving average to find support. If we see a breakthrough, we can focus on the support of 1943 below intraday trading. If the price falls to the region, it is a relatively good opportunity for aggressive people to try to go long. Today's operation reference range is 1943-1968, and aggressive people can buy low and sell high in the range.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: long

Entry price: 1943

Target price: 1965

Stop loss: 1938

Support: 1950.000, 1943.000

Resistance: 1972.000, 1988.000