Chapter 28 Fluctuating in a Narrow Range, Waiting Patiently for the Meeting Next Week（11.24）
Fundamentals
During the Asian session on Friday (November 24), WTI crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around 76.6 dollars per barrel. Yesterday, the trend of oil prices fluctuated and downward generally, mainly due to the US holiday and the postponement of the OPEC+ meeting until next week. The market lacked effective information operation, maintaining an oscillatory trend, and the trading was relatively weak. However, it should be noted that the trend in oil prices has now injected expectations of production cuts. If the production cut fails to reach, or the production cut is not met, oil prices may continue to decline. Then, the lower side is still to test the support near the previous low of 72.5, and even lower support at the 70 integer mark. At present, this meeting can be said to be very critical, one is about the general trend of next year's production, and the other is the degree of unity within OPEC+ that is doubted by the outside world. From the current point of view, although African oil producers are divided, they have also stated that they do not plan to withdraw from OPEC+. It depends on how Saudi Arabia coordinates the distribution of internal profits. But what is certain is that next year will not be a unilateral sacrifice for Saudi Arabia to maintain oil prices. Like Iran, Venezuela, and other countries, their production increase will also bring great resistance to OPEC+ to achieve production cuts, which is also destined to require a lot of work to be done in order to achieve the desired outcome of this meeting. As time goes on, it will become more difficult to reduce production. If demand cannot keep up next year, then oil prices will become more resilient.
Data: According to OPEC's statement, the OPEC+ meeting on November 30 was moved online.
Today's attention: Investors should continue to focus on the news and results of next Thursday's OPEC+ meeting.
Technical Analysis
Yesterday, oil prices basically fluctuated in the $1 space, closing a small bear candle. Oil prices fell as expected yesterday, but the intensity was not enough, which was mainly due to the wait-and-see mood in the holiday atmosphere. At present, as the center of gravity moves downward, the 1-hour K-line and the 4-hour K-line both fluctuate around the 60MA. Both of the bulls and bears are more cautious. In the 1-hour candlestick, there is a bearish breakout reversal signal, which may still be an hourly decline. However, the 4-hour MACD is about to appear as a golden cross, and the golden cross in the daily MACD over-falling area is widening. Therefore, the big cycle still depends on the rebound. Perhaps after the one-hour decline, oil prices will have a chance to rebound. Investors could mainly focus on rebound opportunities after 4 p.m. For now, the initial support around 75.3 is seen during the day. If the price falls back into this area, aggressive traders can try to take a small position to go long.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 75.300
Target Price: 77.500
Stop Loss: 74.800
Support: 73.500/72.500
Resistance: 77.500/78.500
