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Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Thursday (November 30), WTI crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around 77.8 dollars per barrel. Oil prices fluctuated in a narrow range in the Asian session yesterday. The European and American markets first fell sharply, and then rebounded largely again, which is similar to the market in the early days of the week. Oil prices fell as low as 75.75 before rebounding sharply to 78.2. We also cashed in a $2 profit on our long order of around 75.8. If the rebound after the deep fall a few days ago was due to the defensive resistance of the bulls, then yesterday's rebound may be the active attack of the bulls. After several days on the defensive, the bulls no longer seem to be as weak as they were before, mainly because of the OPEC+ meeting today. According to the Wall Street Journal yesterday, production cuts could be as high as 1 million barrels per day. Coupled with a severe storm in the Black Sea region, which interrupted oil exports from Kazakhstan and Russia by up to 2 million barrels per day, the expectation of a resurgence of short-term supply tightness also added some certainty to the bulls' minds. Today, all technical analysis is useless, as the news is absolutely dominant. Investors need to focus on the OPEC+ meeting at 9 o'clock tonight, and the results are expected to be announced in the early morning. At the moment, the market is expecting a 1 million barrel cut, and if it falls below this number, it will be seen as bearish. However, this figure may also be a kidnapping of OPEC+ by Wall Street, or it may also be a conspiracy. If the production cut is to this extent, OPEC+ will be very self-harming and unrealistic. But if this drastic production cut is not achieved, oil prices will plummet again. Therefore, it is a dilemma. But I'm still more inclined to not achieve this reduction in production! The results will be announced tonight, and Asian investors should still honestly watch the show, waiting for the opportunity to trade after the results are announced.

Data: US annualized GDP in the third quarter was revised upwards to 5.2%, which is the largest increase in nearly two years after the preliminary value of 4.9%. The core PCE price index was revised down to 2.3%, compared with the expected 2.4%. The PCE price index was revised down to 2.3%, compared with the expected 2.4%.  

Inventories: U.S. EIA crude oil inventories rose by 1.61 million barrels in the week ended November 24, compared with an increase of 8.7 million barrels in the previous reading and an expected decrease of 933,000 barrels.  

Today's attention: OPEC+ will hold a meeting of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) at 21:00 Beijing time on November 30, followed by a meeting of the OPEC+ Ministers' Plenary Decision-making Group at 22:00, and the results are expected to be announced in the early morning.  

Technical Analysis

Oil prices were still fluctuating around the news yesterday. Oil prices fell as low as 75.7 after the release of the inventory data. Subsequently, driven by the news of production cuts, oil prices rebounded rapidly, rising as high as 78.1. In the end, oil prices closed a full bull candle and achieved two consecutive rises. Yesterday, we highlighted that the market should be stronger in the short term, traders should be bullish and try to go long, with the support at 75.8. Also, oil prices held their ground at this level and started a sharp rally. Since the news is overwhelmingly dominant today, technical analysis is ignored. However, investors still have to pay attention to the resistance around 78.5. Options are a good choice, it is recommended to buy a little option, the focus is appropriately biased towards put options, so as to play a little bit of the game that tonight's production cut will not be as expected.  

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 78.500

Target Price: 73.500

Stop Loss: 79.000

Support: 75.800/73.500

Resistance: 78.500/79.500