Chapter 9 XAUUSD: No Major Change In Macro, and the Shock Pattern Is Difficult to Change（4.21）
Fundamentals
During the Asian session on Friday (April 21), spot gold fluctuated to the downside, currently trading around $1985 / oz. Several data released last night are more unfavorable to the dollar, but the current market is still divergent on the forward, gold prices are only slightly higher and then fall, the highest rush to around 2012, the strength is obviously much smaller than the previous rounds, but also shows that the focus of the market is on the current monetary policy. A 25 basis point rate hike in May is a foregone conclusion due to the Fed's and Europe's recent hawkish statements, which also allowed the dollar to continue to gain support and hover around 102. Perhaps gold prices are still difficult to get out of the smooth market in the short term, and the market continues to be dominated by shocks.
Data: Initial jobless claims rose to 245,000 and renewed jobless claims rose to 1.865 million last week, the highest level since November 2021. The upward trend in jobless claims shows that the job market is cooling.
The US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell to -31.3 in April (-19.2 expected, -23.2 previously), the lowest level since 2020, which has reached the low level of previous recessions and may be an early sign of a recession.
Total existing home sales in the US fell 2.4% m/m in March (down 1.8% expected) and were revised down to 13.8% in the previous month from +14.5% in February. The median existing-home price fell 0.9% year-on-year in March, the biggest year-on-year decline since January 2012.
Overall: Several U.S. data released overnight show signs of recession, the outflow of bank deposits in the United States, transmitted to the tightening of credit, has gradually increased the risk of recession in the real economy, but the current market divergence is large, and more data support is needed. The focus is more on the immediate May interest rate hike, for gold prices, will still maintain a short-term shock, long-term optimistic pattern, which is currently more suitable for short-term and small-band operations.
The reference range of today is 1969-2005.
Technical Analysis
From a daily perspective, XAUUSD is oscillating to the downside. The "Engulfing" bearish signal of gold at the 2050 mark is still valid. Gold prices have failed to hold the moving average, and are still suppressed by the MA5, MA10, and MA20. The death cross signal after the MACD top divergence continues with the expanding opening, and the strength of the bulls on the disk is weak. Initial weak support continues to look at the 1980 line and further support looks at the intraweek low around 1969. If it breaks, the strong support below will be around 1955, which is also the 38.2% retracement of the 1805-2048 rally. Then the March 27 low was supported around 1944.
In the short term, there is initial resistance above the MA5 near the 1997 and 2000 integer marks. Further resistance is around the intraday high of 2005, as well as the week's high around 2015. Since the candlestick closed a long lower shadow on Wednesday, it also indicates that the support below is strong. If gold can return above 2015, it will weaken the short-term bearish signal and strong resistance around 2032. If it can be effectively broken, it may be able to translate into a new round of uptrend.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 1980
Target Price: 2005
Stop Loss: 1955
Support: 1980.000/1969.000
Resistance: 2005.000/2015.000
