LIVE ANALYSIS ON USDCAD 4th JULY 2025

1. H4 (High Timeframe) Market Structure Analysis

Market Bias:  Bearish

Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed BOS at ~1.3655 after previous lower highs were maintained and lows were broken.

CHOCH:  No bullish CHOCH yet – bearish structure is intact.

Liquidity Zones:

Sell-side liquidity (SSL):

Below 1.3550 – clean equal lows visible (attracting sell-side draw).

Buy-side liquidity (BSL):

Clustered above 1.3650 and 1.3680 (unmitigated supply and inefficient candles).

Order Blocks (OBs):

Valid H4 Supply OB: 1.3645 – 1.3670 (refined zone that broke structure and remains respected).

Demand OB (reactive): 1.3540 – 1.3555 (reacted multiple times but no strong CHOCH = not reliable for longs).

Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):

Bearish FVG: 1.3590 – 1.3620 (unfilled gap from previous bearish impulse).

2. H1 (Mid Timeframe) Structure

Market Bias: Bearish continuation

Break of Structure (BOS): Recent BOS from 1.3650 → 1.3570 confirms continuation.

CHOCH: No signs of reversal structure (CHoCH).

Liquidity Zones:

BSL: Above 1.3595 & 1.3620 (internal high + inefficient candle top).

SSL: Below 1.3555 (prior lows) and deeper near 1.3520 (imbalance tail).

Order Blocks (OBs):

Bearish OB: 1.3585 – 1.3605 (strong reaction level; price has wicked into this previously, but not fully mitigated).

FVGs:

H1 Bearish FVG: 1.3590 – 1.3618 (clean imbalance zone where price is likely to reverse from).

3. M15 (LTF Precision Entry)

Internal Structure:  Bearish

Recent BOS: Bearish BOS after sweeping BSL at 1.3590.

Liquidity Sweeps:

Buy-side liquidity (above 1.3590) swept during quick spike.

Sell-side liquidity untouched below 1.3555 (target zone).

Refined OB:

1.3595 – 1.3605 (within the FVG; multiple candle rejections visible).

Fair Value Gap (FVG):

Aligned with OB → 1.3590 – 1.3618

Perfect for high RR setups.

Trade Confluence Checklist

Confluence                ✔️ Details

HTF Bias:                 Bearish (H4/H1)

M15 BOS:                        After liquidity sweep ✅

Liquidity Grab:                BSL above 1.3590 swept ✅

FVG Alignment:               FVG + OB overlap @ 1.3590–1.3618 ✅

OB Mitigation:                 Price tapped OB → rejected with BOS ✅

PREMIUM SIGNAL – USD/CAD SELL SETUP

PAIR: USD/CAD

DIRECTION: SELL

TIMEFRAME: M15 (HTF: H4/H1 Confirmed Bearish Bias)

ENTRY ZONE (Sell Limit):

1.3595 – 1.3605

→ Aligned with unmitigated OB + H1/H4 FVG + internal liquidity sweep.

STOP LOSS (SL):

1.3626

→ Just above internal high and full FVG fill – ideal invalidation.

TAKE PROFIT TARGETS:

TP1: 1.3555 – Equal lows / internal liquidity

TP2: 1.3520 – Deeper liquidity pool near unmitigated demand zone

Risk Management Advice

Risk 0.5–1% per trade.

Secure partial profits at TP1.

Trail stop above internal swing high after BOS confirms.