Where is the crux of Thousands of People and Thousands of Waves?

What needs to be confirmed is that the wave theory has merits, at least he has observed one side of the market and completed effective market information collection. The missing piece of information is the crux of the problem: time! ! !

In the previous article on how to set the moving average parameters to be objective, the main idea I wanted to express was the word objective. Similarly, to analyze the market from the perspective of wave theory, we must also uphold this principle. Let’s first look at Elliott’s explanation of the basic five waves: Elliot’s theory believes that, whether it is a bull market or a bear market, there will be several waves in each complete cycle. In a cycle of the bull market, the first five bands are driving, and the last three are adjustments; and in the first five bands, the first, third, and fifth, that is, odd numbers, promote the rise, and the second, fourth, that is, even numbers. , which is an adjusted decline. Look at how simple it is, just by observing the number and level relationship of rising and falling, but not explaining the logical relationship, and why five waves are divided into basic waves and eight waves as cycle waves. Not to mention the wave patterns that forcibly explain market behavior such as the nine waves of the day. Here, I only affirm him one thing: that is, the market will have two kinds of fluctuations, rising and falling. For the rest, I will use logic to overthrow them all below.

Look at the picture below:

The following is a logical explanation: Figure 1.2.3 is easy to understand, and there is no ambiguity. The change started from Figure 4, and the market evolved to the state shown in Figure 4. Both long and short positions have appeared as reference objects for comparison, that is, where there are many strong bands and where the empty strong bands are, there are already Based on a certain reference material as a standard, a relatively strong wave band is obtained: that is, the second wave of rising and the second wave of falling are both strong. Since both waves have become stronger, there is naturally no conclusion, and the market has not come out of the result. Until the appearance of Figure 5, the market finally chose to go up, and the deterministic conclusion: the strong wave band of the rise defeated the strong wave band of the fall, thus verifying that the second wave of rising is deterministically strong (this is a strong wave recognized by both long and short sides). band)! ! ! This is why it is necessary to collect five bands in order to draw a definite conclusion. Because only five waves can completely collect all the long-short information: the rising range and rising time, as well as the changes between them, and the conclusions after the comparison of strengths and weaknesses caused by them.

Is the above logic a bit convoluted, but the logic is like this, one loop after another, extremely rigorous. But also because of its harsh rigor, deterministic conclusions can be drawn. It is recommended to read the above several times before looking down.

Look at the picture below:

There are only two types of people who are long and short in the market. The plane chart of MT4 can only display the two bands of rising and falling. The two axes of the plane can only collect time and space. Space corresponds to the volatility, and time corresponds to the number of K-lines. Market changes can only exist in time and space: that is, changes in volatility and the number of K-lines. But the corresponding logic is a two-dimensional perspective. You must compare the relationship between time and amplitude changes to fully analyze the information. What this picture draws is also where the changes in the market are. Use your brain to deduce where the changes are. Change is the core of the market. Only when the market becomes abnormal can there be trading opportunities. This abnormal state only exists in time or space.

Find out the changes, reason about the cause and effect, who is the cause and who is the effect. Trading opportunities are always only in Yinli! ! !

Here is an example:

Guided by the logic of this picture, try to deduce the changes in the second picture and why you should enter at those positions. If the details are not handled well, the problem of running short cannot be solved, and the loss of the firm offer is here.

Leave a message to the followers of the wave theory: The market only needs five waves to reach a definite conclusion, and only five waves are useful. Eight Waves is just a beautiful misunderstanding to forcibly explain market behavior through observation. The N-word structure is even more nonsense, and the information has not been collected completely.

Finally, a question is raised: How many kinds of conclusions can be drawn for abnormal changes in the market? That is to say, how many trading opportunities can be obtained by looking at the market with this logic?