Where does your judgment come from when trading?

This is indeed a question worth thinking about. I understand the judgment here as the basis for your trading behavior. Whether it is entering or exiting or waiting and watching, there must be a relatively fixed standard, what kind of action to make under what circumstances.

Where does judgment come from?

First of all, I think the basis for your judgment needs to come from trading varieties. We all know that different trading varieties will have their own characteristics, and the influencing factors of each variety are different. The same event must have different effects on different species. For example, in the case of gold, gold itself has the attributes of a commodity, which exists in itself, and also has the attribute of hedging. If the conflict on the Korean peninsula escalates, it may be gold rather than the currencies of other countries that may be most affected. If, at this time, you hold a short position in gold, then you need to measure whether the news will affect your position as soon as the event comes out. The first thing to consider in trading is our trading variety.

Second, the structure of the trading market. Although the market is disorderly and irregular, it is difficult to know the precise highs and lows of the market. And the judgment of the trend will vary from person to person. No matter the point and trend are not fixed, they are always changing. Sticking to the rules can't save your trading, so probabilistic thinking and changing thinking are very important. Even so, I still think that the market will still have relative regularity under certain circumstances. For example, war incidents have increased the risk aversion sentiment of gold. This news will ultimately affect the people who view this incident. If everyone does not recognize this incident and remains unmoved, then the price will not rise. Since it is going to rise, it must rise with the appearance that it can be discovered. From A ---> B, the law of rising during the period can be found. This is also what I think of the market structure. Going back to the subject’s question, if I approve the price structure, I will have a basic judgment on the market, that is to say, as long as the structure I approve remains unchanged, the trend will not reverse, and I should hold it .

Third, judgment comes from your trading system. Trading still needs to return to the trading system. Don’t underestimate the concept of the trading system. It can be all-encompassing, not just simple trend, point and other judgments. It can be said that any kind of market behavior you can think of can be reflected in the system. I think a good trading system must be based on the present and imagine the future. What is the current price position, what kind of structure the future price may go out of, such a structure has appeared, what is your trading strategy, etc. You don’t need to write it out, but these precautions must be included in the within your system. All in all, everything is under control. (Try to think of everything you can think of, and you must have a logic of thinking. As for the black swan incident, there is no way. The things you can think of are not called black swans.)

Finally, what I want to say is that judgment comes from your understanding of the market, your understanding of trading, etc. I personally suggest that you should think more about the trading system. As I mentioned before, what kind of trend will the market have, what is the standard for the establishment of the trend point, and what should be done. These things are all clear in your chest, I believe you will form the judgment in your subconscious.

Fear comes from the unknown of the future!