In terms of the effectiveness of technical analysis, most traders now believe in technical analysis. So is technical analysis really effective when we are trading?

Whether it works depends on what route you take

From the most original point of view of trading, trading is a gamble,

Before opening the cup, what we are facing is an uncertain future.

We need to bet that we can win in the future from limited information.

What kind of gamble? two roads diverged

Article 1, betting on a single victory,

Article 2, winning after betting many times

He doesn't care if he wins or loses a single bet,

What he cares about is whether his advantage is still there

As long as this advantage is still there, if you lose a single time, you will come back sooner or later

Such a person will analyze every time the line is broken or crossed or what the Fed is doing, and predict what will happen in the future?

obviously not,

From the perspective of multiple gambling, he designed a trading rule,

Then after betting many times, this rule can bring him to win

So he only cares if his rule is triggered,

He needs to strictly follow this rule,

If analysis is added, then this choice can form a double-edged sword

May lead to better results, may lead to worse results

Whatever the outcome, the integrity of his trade was destroyed,

His participation in the gamble turned out to be the confidence he expected,

After the integrity of the transaction is destroyed, the result of multiple gambling becomes unpredictable and uncontrollable

This is a feasible trading path, but many people will have a sense of certainty,

This sense of certainty comes from our humanity

It is human nature to take a stubborn stance on decisions that cost a great deal,

Just like those novices who have more floating losses, he stands firm on a position and continues to increase positions

If the sweetness is tasted again at great cost, then the position becomes a belief

When you have experienced, stick to a rule, lose, lose, lose until you collapse, and when you can't stick to it, the rule will give you a big piece of meat,

What kind of awareness will arise? He will take this rule as a rule of thumb for trading

These people think that technical analysis is a scam, a tool for dealers to harvest leeks

Because they themselves fell into this perplexing pit back then, they once loved deeply, so they later hated

If you believe in your path, don't forget

We are in a casino with fierce games,

any way to make money,

It's a gamble

Only when you understand why technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not needed,

In order to understand why technical analysis is needed, why fundamental analysis is needed,

Because the path is different, the gambling method is different

Only by understanding this layer

Then you can study how to make these analyzes effective

Only the path to betting on a single victory needs to be analyzed

It should be self-evident

In order to improve the success rate of doing things, various influencing factors are taken into consideration, and simulation calculations are carried out.

Analysis is to simulate calculations and calculate future changes

Novices and veterans alike are betting on single wins

But the two have different understandings of the future.