陌生人人 answered the question How to deal with the problem of trend deviation between different cycles?

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陌生人人

When doing trading, do you often have such questions: the daily chart trend is bullish, and the 1-hour trend is bearish, so how should we choose when trading, whether to focus on big or small? This is a situation we often encounter, and I will talk about my own understanding below.

The first concept to know is trend. The trend must be directly related to the cycle, that is to say, it is meaningless to talk about the trend without the cycle. Therefore, when you are asking others for advice, stop asking questions like "what do you think about gold today?" It's not that the other party doesn't want to answer you, but that the direction of this kind of question is unclear, and you really don't know how to answer it.

Just because trends are related to cycles, it makes sense that there will be different trends in each cycle. At present, there are two different understandings on the cycle, one is to look at the big and look at the small; the other is to take the small cycle as the standard. Let's analyze the logic of these two ideas.

The first one: look at the big and look at the small, with the big cycle as the standard and the small cycle as the supplement.

The main basis is still that the trend sense of the large cycle is better than that of the small cycle. The trend of the big cycle will not change so easily, and there will be no frequent changes in the trend. The trend is relatively stable. Taking advantage of the characteristics of large-cycle trends and cooperating with small-cycle transactions can indeed increase the probability of successful transactions to a certain extent.

The main point is that the big cycle trend is not so easy to change. Although it is not easy, there will still be changes, and when the big cycle trend changes, the price action has been running for a period of time, and the point may not be very good. In other words, the small cycle has shown a very good sense of trend.

However, in the process of changing the trend, there will still be the possibility of failure. For example, the price is still in an upward trend in the big cycle, but the price is currently in the adjustment stage. The adjustment stage in the rising process. At present, in this cycle, it is not sure whether the adjustment is a rebound or a reversal. And in small cycles the trend has changed.

The second type: where to trade in the cycle, the cycle is the main one, and there is no need to worry about the big cycle.

The main rationale is that the price action is the same whether it is a large cycle or a small cycle. The long-short conversion will definitely show up on the price chart. The advantage is that it can catch market reversals in advance, and small-cycle reversals will gradually grow into large-cycle reversals, which can capture most of the market's profits. But the disadvantage is that it may lead to frequent transactions. There are too many signals of trend conversion in a small period, and there will definitely be multiple long-term and short-term conversions. If the small cycle is the main factor, the signal of the small cycle must prevail, and the winning rate of entering the market caused by frequent trading will naturally come down.

My trading idea is that when the trend of the big cycle has not changed, and the price retreats to the watershed of the change of the trend of the big cycle, I still find a point in the small cycle that conforms to the big cycle.

To sum up: it is a common problem that the trend of the large cycle and the small cycle go against each other. How?

1. The large-cycle trend is upward, but when there is a large space for the price to retreat to the long-short conversion point, the small-cycle trend shall prevail. For long-short conversions that have been completed in a small cycle, the trend of the small cycle shall prevail;

2. The trend of the large cycle is upward, and there has been a long-term retracement, and it is approaching the position of the long-short watershed in the large cycle, so look for opportunities to go long in the small cycle.

Of course, no matter what kind of thinking, there is still the possibility of failure. No trading strategy is 100% successful.

Last updated: 08/23/2023 09:10

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金口预言

It’s been a while since I’ve traded, so I’m reluctant to answer a wave. In fact, it’s normal for there to be a conflict between a large cycle and a small cycle!

The market always goes up and down alternately, and the big cycle is the evolution of the small cycle.

For this, you need to know the relationship between large and small cycles, and then make your own judgment, determine the size of the opportunity, and then determine the size of the position to achieve stable profits and control the retracement of returns.

Let me share with you the relationship between the big cycle and the small cycle, hoping to help you:

a. A small cycle promotes a large cycle.

b. The small cycle obeys the big cycle.

c. The inflection point of the trend in the large cycle triggers competition in the small cycle.

d. The large cycle limits the small cycle interval.

The relationship between big and small cycles needs to be savored carefully.

How to use it? In general, the larger cycle of the target cycle judges the trend and the size of the opportunity. Look for accurate buying and selling points in the small week of the target cycle.

Last updated: 08/01/2023 19:33

我的意中人

In our trading process, there will be a misunderstanding for friends who are just getting started, and that is the misunderstanding about the use of K-line. What about most cases? Many friends ask me what time period graphics should I look at for trading. In fact, for technical analysis, all cycle graphics have their significance. There is no absolute transaction that can be completed only by looking at one or a few graphics.

Now let’s talk about the wrong operation methods under the common phenomenon, one is to keep a complete eye on the market during the transaction, and the other is to look at the minute chart to make transactions.

Let me first talk about the benefits of looking at the minute chart for trading. A friend who is new to the market will have a high desire to trade, and this desire will make him want to trade all the time. So the graph that fits his trading mentality is obviously not the medium-to-long-term chart of the hourly or daily line. By their natural selection, they would concentrate on trading on the minute chart. Minute charts include 30-minute, 15-minute, 10-minute, 5-minute, and 1-minute candlestick charts. The short-term graphics respond quickly to market changes, the frequency of changes is relatively high, the operation is more exciting, and there are more opportunities to enter the market. But things have two sides. It is not enough to just see the good side. Changes are quick and responsive. This feature reminds me of the KD indicator. The disadvantage of the KD indicator is the high error rate. The purpose of our trading is to make money, and the increase in the error rate will directly affect our income, which can also be said to be his fatal injury.

According to our consistent process of doing transactions, judging the direction is the first priority, that is, we must line up in the right team. Blindly entering the market without even analyzing the direction at that time is undoubtedly suicidal.

The graph should be seen from the big to the small, that is, first look at the daily or weekly chart to judge the direction. The 4-hour or hourly chart can also be used to judge direction, but the time frame of its influence will be relatively small. When you have judged the direction, you can start your operation. At this time, look at the minute chart to choose the appropriate entry point according to the short-term trend. In other words, we don’t look at the minute chart when we make trading decisions, and it is necessary to pay attention to the minute chart only after we have made a decision. Generally, the validity period of the signal impact on the daily line is 1-3 weeks, 4 hours affects 1-4 days, hourly affects 3-6 hours, and it is not necessary to look at the minute chart to judge the direction.

Last updated: 08/05/2023 07:34

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