Many people speculate in foreign exchange and rely on technology for analysis. What indicators reverse, graphs break... Do they really dare to ignore the fundamentals? Or when the direction given by the technical indicators is opposite to the direction revealed by the fundamentals, who should I trust?

For example, the technical analysis of crude oil is clearly an upward trend. From the 4H chart, the upward trend has not changed, and the daily chart has not changed, but in the fundamental news, the US crude oil inventory has increased significantly, which is not conducive to crude oil! So what should we do at this time?
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half awake and half drunk

dachshund

Foreign exchange speculation does not mean that you do not operate on fundamentals, but that it is easier to use technical analysis.

①. Fundamental analysis is more difficult than technical analysis.

We know that the objects of fundamental analysis are generally the economic policies of central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, as well as regularly released economic data, such as non-agricultural employment numbers, Fed interest rate resolutions and other data. The data lasts for varying lengths of time, and there is sometimes a case of "buy the news and sell the facts". For example, the release of non-agricultural data indicates that the number of unemployed people in the United States has increased, while the dollar has risen instead of falling, etc. Such market reactions often occur. It is market distortion, and the operation of economic data is not big, so it is difficult to make a clear judgment. This is also the basic operation of the foreign exchange market.

②. It is difficult to judge the duration of the fundamentals, and there is no relatively fixed standard. Take the trend reversal as an example. If we use technical analysis, we can easily use the tools of technical analysis to accurately find the signal of trend change, so as to follow the trend. And if you use the fundamentals, there is no fixed time node, for example, the Federal Reserve suddenly announced an interest rate increase to boost the dollar, will the price reverse immediately or wait for a certain period of time before the reversal occurs? There is no way to fix it online, and there is no way to better service transactions.

③. Fundamental trading time is not fixed. If you use fundamental news to trade, traders may need to wait for the time node, and it is not possible to trade at any time. It's as if the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is scheduled at 2 am, so this time period is no longer in line with our work and rest time.

Finally, using fundamental analysis to trade is not necessarily a long-term trader. Not all fundamental analysis are value investors, and they may also be gambling data.

Regardless of fundamentals or technical aspects, both are means of analyzing the market from different perspectives. There is no rule that they must be used separately. In the process of trading, we use more of the two methods to guide transactions together.

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tianji road

Let's put it this way, there are two factions in the investment market, namely technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Some people rely on technical analysis to dominate the financial circle, such as Soros; others rely on fundamental analysis to dominate Wall Street, such as Buffett; some even combine the two factions, relying on fundamental analysis for major trends, while focusing on technical analysis for small bands. The market is enduring.

Therefore, there is no right or wrong between these two factions, only the difference between profit and loss. As long as it suits you and makes a profit, you can rely on technical analysis alone without worrying about fundamentals, or you can only worry about fundamentals without relying on technical analysis, or you can worry about both fundamentals and technical analysis.


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loneliness

In fact, you have fallen into a misunderstanding. The technical school may use those price charts, indicators, etc., so is the pure technical school a player who only does this? If so, it is naturally impossible to continue to make profits in this market.

Because, there are no purely technical players in this world. No matter what kind of technical gameplay, there is always someone playing. When he uses these techniques, his physical and mental state, skill proficiency, flexibility, creativity, etc., personality, IQ, operating rules, operating discipline, etc. will inevitably affect to the behavior of the operation and its results.

No matter what kind of technical gameplay, it is always under a certain market background, within certain game rules, with certain funds, certain operation objects, and certain operation objectives as the operation target, and these will inevitably affect the operation. execution and its results.

In addition, technical analysis is a method of classifying trends and a tool for deconstructing the market. The fundamentals are just to analyze the market from another angle, which is essentially a tool.

The above-mentioned factors will be unified under a person's ideological and behavioral system, that is, the ideological and behavioral system composed of world outlook, values, and ways of thinking, etc., is the ultimate factor affecting a person's operation, and does not depend on the person's will.

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