Where does your judgment come from when trading?

This is indeed a question worth thinking about. I understand the judgment here as the basis for your trading behavior. Whether it is entering or exiting or waiting and watching, there must be a relatively fixed standard, what kind of action to make under what circumstances.

Where does judgment come from?

First of all, I think the basis for your judgment needs to come from trading varieties. We all know that different trading varieties will have their own characteristics, and the influencing factors of each variety are different. The same event must have different effects on different species. For example, in the case of gold, gold itself has the attributes of a commodity, which exists in itself, and also has the attribute of hedging. If the conflict on the Korean peninsula escalates, it may be gold rather than the currencies of other countries that may be most affected. If, at this time, you hold a short position in gold, then you need to measure whether the news will affect your position as soon as the event comes out. The first thing to consider in trading is our trading variety.

Second, the structure of the trading market. Although the market is disorderly and irregular, it is difficult to know the precise highs and lows of the market. And the judgment of the trend will vary from person to person. No matter the point and trend are not fixed, they are always changing. Sticking to the rules can't save your trading, so probabilistic thinking and changing thinking are very important. Even so, I still think that the market will still have relative regularity under certain circumstances. For example, war incidents have increased the risk aversion sentiment of gold. This news will ultimately affect the people who view this incident. If everyone does not recognize this incident and remains unmoved, then the price will not rise. Since it is going to rise, it must rise with the appearance that it can be discovered. From A ---> B, the law of rising during the period can be found. This is also what I think of the market structure. Going back to the subject’s question, if I approve the price structure, I will have a basic judgment on the market, that is to say, as long as the structure I approve remains unchanged, the trend will not reverse, and I should hold it .

Third, judgment comes from your trading system. Trading still needs to return to the trading system. Don’t underestimate the concept of the trading system. It can be all-encompassing, not just simple trend, point and other judgments. It can be said that any kind of market behavior you can think of can be reflected in the system. I think a good trading system must be based on the present and imagine the future. What is the current price position, what kind of structure the future price may go out of, such a structure has appeared, what is your trading strategy, etc. You don’t need to write it out, but these precautions must be included in the within your system. All in all, everything is under control. (Try to think of everything you can think of, and you must have a logic of thinking. As for the black swan incident, there is no way. The things you can think of are not called black swans.)

Finally, what I want to say is that judgment comes from your understanding of the market, your understanding of trading, etc. I personally suggest that you should think more about the trading system. As I mentioned before, what kind of trend will the market have, what is the standard for the establishment of the trend point, and what should be done. These things are all clear in your chest, I believe you will form the judgment in your subconscious.

Fear comes from the unknown of the future!

Where does the ability to judge come from? Well, let me think about it. It is nothing more than a technical + fundamental judgment. This is a commonplace question, and there is nothing to say.

For myself, there are a few more points: 1. Familiarity with varieties; 2. Precise support and resistance

Although I am not going to talk about the technical and fundamental aspects, I will briefly talk about it.

Fundamentals:

How to judge is really not detailed. When looking at the fundamentals, you have to learn to detour around the side. For example, the unemployment rate, don’t look directly at the unemployment rate, you look at the employment participation rate, and then look at the number of employees in the manufacturing, retail and service industries. The latter three are the most important components of the unemployment rate in the United States. The former reflects the overall employment situation in the United States. After reading this data, you will know how bullshit the unemployment rate is. For another example, if you look at the US economy, what else can you look at besides the data that you know? The Baltic Dry Index, which is shipping data, can directly look at the global trade situation here. A good U.S. economy must mean strong consumption. As China is the largest exporter to the U.S., if the U.S. economy is strong, China’s exports will increase, and the shipping industry data will also increase accordingly. Of course, the current trade disputes have some impact, but the overall situation is like this. This is not to say that a decision can be made by looking at one economic data, but to tell everyone to look more at related data and learn to detour.

Technical aspect:

Indicator usage really goes without saying too much. Just combine all the indicators. I myself use STS, MACD, ADX, Ichimoku Kinbai, SAR, Bollinger Bands, MA, Bollinger Bands, Trend Lines, and K-line patterns, and judge them together.

Breed Familiarity:

If the above two are for you to judge the general direction. Then this can be called the operation manual. The variety familiarity I understand is actually observing the subtleties. Take the euro as an example, what you need to know is:

1. What is the normal daily volatility of the euro?

2. When data such as GDP and CPI are released in the range of 0.1, what is the volatility of the euro? When the announced value range is equal to or even greater than 0.2, how much volatility will the euro have?

3. When the euro is in a normal trend, how strong is the correction? When the trend is abnormal, how strong is the callback?

4. When the data is released, the euro likes to go unilaterally? When which data is released, the euro likes to twitch back and forth?

Wait, too many details. It is not unreasonable to only do familiar varieties. After you observe a certain variety in detail, it will not directly help you make profits, nor will it greatly increase your trading skills. But it will give you a ruler in your heart. By looking at the fundamentals at a glance, and then looking at the trend, you can probably know what stage the euro is in now, whether you should wait, or the opportunity will come soon. How many opportunities are left in this wave. You can tell at a glance.

Well, after observing the subtleties, there is another incidental thing - the sense of disk. This thing is not metaphysics, it does exist. Sometimes you want to place an order, but you don't think it's suitable. You can't say where it's not suitable, but you just don't think it's suitable. The final result proves that you are right. Of course, this is only the most basic sense of the disk.

Precise support and resistance:

How to say this thing. Let’s take a day’s trend as an example. The largest line of resistance forms the top, while the other line of support forms the bottom. How to say precisely? That is to say, when a certain currency reaches your support or resistance, the trend will be stopped. Prick at most. This is at least 70% of the time. For the rest, the trend is not enough, or it is broken.

The top and the bottom are formed, and for the remaining support and resistance, you have to block one K line at least most of the time. The 1-hour map means that the stall 1 stays for 1 hour. 4 hours to block at least 4 hours.

Instead of being broken casually. Only in this way can it be called accurate support and resistance. It's not that the price has reached this line, and it will be broken after a little testing. This is not called support resistance.

The above, these are my own common judgments when entering the market and floating losses and floating profits.

In the currency market, there are two common roles, one is a technical analyst, and the other is a trader or operator.

Because of the different division of labor, the two roles have different understandings of the market. Analysts focus more on the research and judgment of the market, so their judgment comes from their knowledge and understanding of the market. Traders focus on trading, which is actual combat, so their judgment should not only come from the judgment of the market, but also judge whether the current market can be operated.

Since it is aimed at doing transactions, let's put aside analysts and only talk about traders.

From the above statement, it can be seen that the judgment of traders should be divided into two levels, one is to judge the current and future market, and the other is to judge the current price position.

Let’s talk about the ability to judge the market first. The ability of traders to judge the market may be different from that of analysts. They are more focused on the indicators in the trading system or the deep cultivation of the technical system. Therefore, a trader's judgment on the market comes from the linear system of market analysis in his own trading system (the analyst's analysis of the market is a divergent system) . For example, if the trading system is based on the moving average, then the trader's judgment on the market mainly comes from the shape of the moving average and the relationship between the K line and the moving average, and of course it may also be assisted by other indicators.

Let's talk about traders' judgment on operations. The operation process of traders is divided into three aspects: entry, exit, and fund management. The rules for entry and exit have actually been formulated within their own trading system, so for Operational judgment still comes from your own trading system . Of course, this is different from the judgment of the market. What needs to be judged in operation is whether the current position can enter the market, how much stop loss is reasonable, how much is the target position, and how to allocate funds. The most important criterion for judging here is whether you can enter the venue, and then there are others.

Judging whether it is suitable to enter the market should be judged according to the trend and space position. The judgment of the trend can refer to the judgment method of the market, while the judgment of the space requires more detailed things in the trading system, such as whether the support of the position is effective.

All in all, when trading, all judgment comes from the trader's own trading system. Only a perfect trading system can improve your judgment, and the two are complementary.

My view on trading focuses on mechanical replication, which must meet the characteristics of being repeatable, replicable, applicable to multiple varieties, and streamlined analysis.

This is related to the thinking of doing things. I always think that the real result is to achieve simple, repeatable, and efficient results. Otherwise, too much analysis will often add too many personal opinions, making the judgment and analysis of the strategy subjective.

Throughout Wall Street's legendary traders and prestigious hedge fund companies, the strategies they advocate and implement are simple and easy to replicate.

No matter it is technical level or technical level, the high probability of grasping the core variable elements can make the transaction much more convenient.

Being a trader is different from an analyst. An analyst is rich in breadth and does not need to go deep, while a trader looks for a point and digs deep into the core, so as to use this core to strategize in the capital market.

Each trader has a very different personality, either full of passion, or deep and thoughtful, corresponding to the trading cycle they are good at is naturally different, some are good at medium and long-term trends, while others can accept intraday shocks. First of all, first ask yourself the amount of funds and psychological endurance, including the holding time and the frequency of market fluctuations, which cycle trading strategy is more suitable for you.

For trading strategies, I think every trader who enters the market has learned the methods of breaking through and selling high and buying low. Some people will sneer at these two methods, and immediately answer "it doesn't work". If you just follow the explanations in the books, the probability of losing money will definitely be higher if you use the book principle, but if you add some other judgment basis, the success rate will naturally improve a lot. Have you ever done this before?

Another person said that no matter how you adjust it, there are trend strategies in volatile markets that make more profits. Excuse me, have you compared the characteristics of the K line? The large period chart is the fusion of the K lines of the small period chart; the small period chart is the decomposition of the K lines of the large period chart. For the same trend, the large cycle is a candle combination, and the small cycle is a candle pattern. Have you ever thought about adjusting and expanding the reference cycle appropriately, in fact, you are doing a small cycle band trend?

Much of the judgment ability of trading is restricted by comfort, either from the market or from oneself. I think there may be more factors of oneself. For example, in the interpretation of fundamentals, some traders will tell you a bunch of data from professional institutions, but still fail to understand the core ideas of fundamentals, because such people lack the knowledge reserve of the region’s politics and history Another example is that some traders have a lot of technical and theoretical knowledge, and it is common for them to switch to real trading operations and feel uneasy and lose money. Lacking actual combat experience, it should be necessary to transform theory into a real offer to sum up one's own real offer weapon.

Any industry is the result of time accumulation, there is no shortcut, don't trust the opinions of experts and scholars, and don't underestimate your own ability. Turn all your attention to the board, and your board judgment will improve by leaps and bounds.

I have met many people over the years, and the most frequently asked questions are:

"What technical indicators do you use?"

"How should this line be drawn?"

"What technical judgment do you rely on to buy?"

"What should I do if I get caught?" and a series of questions.

None of those who ask these questions are real winners in trading, but are all "leeks" in the stock market, losers in the futures market, or they can't explain why, and their profits are only based on temporary luck.

why? !

Because there is a problem at the level of thinking and consciousness!

Intimidated by lust and wrong habits! Intimidated by wrong and irresponsible "experts and public opinion"!! Being "caught" by the surrounding living environment!!!

It is difficult for people to break through the circle to achieve a breakthrough, and it is difficult to change from a thinking habit or environment, because they cannot touch the atmosphere and things outside the circle.

It's not that I don't realize it at all, I don't know it, or I don't want to break the "comfort" of thinking subjectively and become an enemy of the familiar environment around me, I don't want to be "different" and be rejected, and I'm used to following the crowd Deeply engraved in the depths of human thinking, it has become the default thinking and even subconscious, and it is not easy to be perceived. Maybe some traders feel something is wrong, but they don’t know what is wrong, let alone what to do.)

The development of many things has its "source", and this "instinct"-like subjective consciousness has a lot to do with the "evolution" process of human beings:

After thousands of years of evolution, human beings have reached the present stage.

In the distant past, human beings were very weak. Facing the cruel nature, they had to learn to "live in groups". Because of this, a society and a "high-level and multi-layered organizational structure" such as a country have been established. In the process, everyone also deeply "learned" the survival strategy of following the crowd and avoiding danger first. .

However, in the current social stage, human beings have relatively controlled external dangers, but have not made corresponding changes to "primitive human nature". Therefore, in the stock market and futures market, "herd effect", "clan of gangsters", and "chasing high and falling" have been repeatedly staged.

Therefore, everyone must understand: the fundamental difference between winners and losers lies in the level of conscious thinking, not fundamentals, technical aspects, let alone a certain indicator, skill, or tool!

Many seemingly motivated people have worked hard for a lifetime but have not achieved much. The reason is that consciousness is limited, and there is no opportunity or "create" opportunity to contact things beyond the habitual consciousness layer.

It is said that character determines fate, and character should be more of an emotional expression. The root is that "consciousness determines character, determines behavior habits, and then character and behavior habits determine fate!"

Consciousness determines behavior, and behavior forms habits, so many people fall into the "vicious circle" caused by consciousness, just like in daily life, some people feel that once "not going well", bad things "come one after another". No double, misfortunes never come singly", but everyone didn't find out or didn't break the habit consciousness!

To break habitual thinking, you need to perceive the existence of mistakes, break through the shackles of the environment, and the inertia of thinking, which requires a lot of courage! You need to be "enemies" with the environment, face loneliness, loneliness, cynicism, and incompatibility with the "public"... It tests your determination and perseverance, and it is by no means a day's work! For ordinary people, what is difficult to achieve is not a decision, but a long-term persistence!

The current society is "impetuous, restless, and materialistic", and what is progressing is the more convenient satisfaction of "desires". Only in this way can we be sought after by the public and get enough "satisfaction"! But faster does not mean better, nor does it mean deeper and more valuable in life!

"Desire" is constantly satisfied, people will gradually become numb, and need more and faster satisfaction and stimulation!

When reading becomes a kind of show, when textual research becomes a trend of self-satisfaction, when chasing the trend becomes a trend and belief... At this time, thinking becomes less, loyalty and reliability become less "personal" and quiet Becoming "alone and lonely" is unbearable...

And there are few "winners" in trading, just like a thousand soldiers are easy to win, but a general is hard to find, just like there are few people who are fully enlightened. The natural ecology and human social form are inherently pyramid-shaped, with many at the bottom and few at the top. There is no and impossible "common prosperity"!

People usually think that a rational person makes decisions based on the external information he receives. In fact, people only make decisions based on their own judgments on external information. In most cases, even when faced with the same situation, different The judgments made by different people are also different , which is why there are opposing parties who want to buy and sell at the same time in the trading market at any time. Therefore, a person's judgment only comes from his personal experience. In terms of trading, a trader's personal judgment comes from the influence of comprehensive factors such as his trading philosophy, trading technology, psychological quality, and trading discipline execution.

And I think that traders should make judgments only when they start trading, and there is only one object of judgment: to do or not to do it , and to execute it at any other time. The market has only two states, suitable for trading and not suitable for trading. Many people must have heard an analyst say that the current market should hold a wait-and-see attitude, that is, it is not suitable for trading, that is, when the market fluctuates violently without a trend, and the risk is relatively high; while the time suitable for trading is when the trend is clear and the risk is low . Traders must have their own judgment standards, so that they can enter the market when it is suitable for their trading, and know how to leave the market when it is not suitable for their trading.

Trading behaviors such as trading signals, initial positions, stop loss or reduction of positions when losing money, and increasing and reducing positions when making profits all belong to the category of execution transactions. Traders must set up strict trading disciplines for themselves, including position control, stop loss quota, countermeasures when encountering sharp rises and falls, etc., all need to be set in advance. During the trading process, whatever happens, the discipline will be implemented . I think that in the process of trading, if traders want to judge, they only need to judge one thing, whether to go or not to go, and try not to make other judgments, because few people can maintain a stable balance in the face of drastic changes in account balance. Mentality, when your mood is on a roller coaster with the amount of profit and loss, you can't expect how much rationality is left in your judgment.

The last thing I want to say is that trading philosophy is everything . A stable and profitable trading system has only one simple concept, cut off losses and let profits surge. Under the guidance of this concept, there is no so-called choice of loss or resistance for you to judge. The so-called reversal belongs to the category of trading signals. You must use technical indicators or other means to specify what kind of reversal is irrelevant to the general trend. What kind of reversal can determine the failure or even the end of the general trend. , and just do it like that. The execution in the trading process is nothing more than three actions of adding and reducing positions and closing and leaving the market. Mechanical traders will formulate strict strategies for adding and reducing positions. When they reach the corresponding point, they will be executed unconditionally. In emergencies, such as drastic changes in the market, in order to avoid greater risks, you can choose to temporarily stay on the sidelines.

Judgment comes from looking at the market.

1. Look carefully at the trend

The most important thing in the theory of truth is the high and low points of the band, which is the easiest place to be overlooked. Whether it is the high and low points on the daily line or the 5-minute chart, you need to pay attention to them, and they all have value.

2. Look at the conversion cycle

Let’s look at the big cycle first. You need to look at the daily chart basically every day, and look at the weekly chart every few days. As for the hourly chart or even a smaller period, it is seen more frequently. Look at the trend in a large cycle, and choose the timing of entering the market in a small cycle. The trend spreads step by step from the small cycle, so to understand the trend, you must start from the small cycle.

3. Comparison of long and short trends

This needs to be observed with the support and resistance levels of Fibonacci. There are many kinds of trends, and there are also many kinds of resistance levels. If you don't look carefully, it is easy to overlook some details.

4. Look at the reversal pattern combined with the trend

No matter how successful the reversal pattern is, it is a contrarian trend. If the market price goes against the trend in the short term and goes along in the medium term, you can pay attention, because this may be an opportunity to enter the market.

5. Trend slope

Pay special attention to the trend with a small slope, which means that the trend is weak. A large slope means a strong trend, but a strong trend is almost always transformed from a small slope.

6. MACD combined with moving average

The difference between the two is that MACD describes the relationship between moving averages, focusing on the bonding and divergence of moving averages, that is, the strengthening and weakening of price momentum. The moving average shows the positional relationship with the K line.

Basically, it is judged from the above. Of course, there are still some points in the analysis of the fundamentals.

Conforms to your system, satisfies the entry of the entry, and the exit of the exit. The most important thing is to comply with your fund management rules (or the management of the addition, subtraction, and leveling of positions), so even if your judgment is wrong 8 times, you are right 2 will never be your problem

My view on trading focuses on mechanical replication, which must meet the characteristics of being repeatable, replicable, applicable to multiple varieties, and streamlined analysis.

This is related to the thinking of doing things. I always think that the real result is to achieve simple, repeatable, and efficient results. Otherwise, too much analysis will often add too many personal opinions, making the judgment and analysis of the strategy subjective.

Throughout Wall Street's legendary traders and prestigious hedge fund companies, the strategies they advocate and implement are simple and easy to replicate.

No matter it is technical level or technical level, the high probability of grasping the core variable elements can make the transaction much more convenient.

Being a trader is different from an analyst. An analyst is rich in breadth and does not need to go deep, while a trader looks for a point and digs deep into the core, so as to use this core to strategize in the capital market.

Each trader has a very different personality, either full of passion, or deep and thoughtful, corresponding to the trading cycle they are good at is naturally different, some are good at medium and long-term trends, while others can accept intraday shocks. First of all, first ask yourself the amount of funds and psychological endurance, including the holding time and the frequency of market fluctuations, which cycle trading strategy is more suitable for you.

For trading strategies, I think every trader who enters the market has learned the methods of breaking through and selling high and buying low. Some people will sneer at these two methods, and immediately answer "it doesn't work". If you just follow the explanations in the books, the probability of losing money will definitely be higher if you use the book principle, but if you add some other judgment basis, the success rate will naturally improve a lot. Have you ever done this before?

Another person said that no matter how you adjust it, there are trend strategies in volatile markets that make more profits. Excuse me, have you compared the characteristics of the K line? The large period chart is the fusion of the K lines of the small period chart; the small period chart is the decomposition of the K lines of the large period chart. For the same trend, the large cycle is a candle combination, and the small cycle is a candle pattern. Have you ever thought about adjusting and expanding the reference cycle appropriately, which is actually a small cycle band trend?

Much of the judgment ability of trading is restricted by comfort, either from the market or from oneself. I think there may be more factors of oneself. For example, in the interpretation of fundamentals, some players will tell you a bunch of data from professional institutions, but they still can’t understand the core ideas of fundamentals, because such people lack the knowledge reserve of the region’s politics and history Another example is that some traders have a lot of technical and theoretical knowledge, and it is common for them to switch to real trading operations and feel uneasy and lose money. Lacking actual combat experience, it should be necessary to transform theory into a real offer to sum up one's own real offer weapon.

Any industry is the result of time accumulation, there is no shortcut, don't trust the opinions of experts and scholars, and don't underestimate your own ability. Turn all your attention to the board, and your board judgment will improve by leaps and bounds.

Here are a few points of reference for you on this issue:

First of all, it needs to be explained that all the trading actions we do are for profit or loss reduction, and to accomplish this in the foreign exchange market, we must have our own trading system to make an overall scientific judgment.

If we only follow the subjective mentality to do trading actions, it will be difficult to realize our original intention of trading in the long run.

We can classify specific judgments into three categories

1: Strict transaction discipline execution

The main function of this point is to prevent random operations caused by subjective mentality changes, such as frequent increase in positions, or heavy position transactions.

Users may have doubts about this point, because the execution of trading discipline is based on experience, and all experience is accumulated from operations that have suffered losses, so this point is also the most important.

Two: Use trading skills to judge the market

At some more reasonable points, you can use the operation method of small stop loss and large profit to trade. This method tests the trader's understanding of K-line graphics. Understanding the trend awareness of K-line patterns will make your trading more profitable with half the effort.

Three: capture market information

This point is more difficult, because the internal relationship between the fluctuation of varieties and the news of the market are inextricably linked. Good judgment, for example, the high probability of gold rising is due to the occurrence of risk aversion events, as long as we pay attention to the occurrence of risk events in the market, we can also have a good judgment on the market

Finally, to sum up, there are only two kinds of judgments on the market conditions, whether to do the market or not to do the market. If you think that the market can be traded, you can convince yourself to execute the operation boldly. It doesn’t matter if you lose money. After all, experience is sometimes more important than profit. . So good luck with your transaction.

Dear readers, if you are interested in my answer, please pay attention to my Huihu account. I will regularly answer some industry-related questions every week. I don’t seek the most professional, but the most authentic. ​​​​​​​​

This involves your own trading system. Let me briefly talk about where your opening position or so-called trading judgment comes from? I adopt a multi-variety trading strategy, and this is how I understand the direction.

Periodic resonance: the daily line, the fifteen-minute line, and the three-minute line fluctuate in one direction at the same time, and the power is often the largest. Of course, these resonances must require conditions.

First, the position of the variety must break through the new highs and new lows of the daily line and enter a new range.

Second, the operating variety must be a variety with relatively large fluctuations, such as gold, silver, Europe, America, etc.

Third, the strategy adopted must be pre-emptive strikes, breakthroughs to new highs and new lows should be followed up in time, and the opportunity must not be delayed, rapid response is required to control it

The trend is the direction, and the direction is the trend. If you follow the trend, you will have a better chance of winning!

When we judge that the market has deviated from our trading direction, we have to go back and see if there was any serious deviation when we made the trading plan. The trading plan is divided into the main plan and the current plan, but foreign exchange traders It is necessary to understand which direction is the main direction and the secondary direction is the auxiliary. Don't go in the opposite direction, otherwise the risk will be greater and the chance of profit will be relatively reduced. The plan of foreign exchange range trading is relatively simple, and foreign exchange traders can trade back and forth within the range. But there are also points that need attention. When the interval will end or restart, traders need to pay attention and judge.

In fact, there are still many close relationships between foreign exchange trend trading and range trading. Forex range trading can be said to be a part of trend trading. The relationship between foreign exchange trend trading and range trading can be seen as the relationship between containment and being contained. Forex traders use the ups and downs of the market in the range to make orders to realize profits. To sum up, foreign exchange traders must find the most suitable foreign exchange trading range to operate and make orders on the premise of conforming to the trend. Once the trend is over, they must know whether to give up or not. This is my judgment.

Original question, according to your description, floating losses, cutting flesh; such words are the pain of traders, but the real pain point does not come from these, but does not know how to give up, your question is considered to be the right person, then How should we give up and ask when we are doing transactions? To give up is to be willing, to know how to give up, to know how to let go, to know how to stop losses, and to ask is easier to understand. It is to know how to let go before you can let go of the burden. If you have a new profit target and look forward to everything, then you will be more motivated. If you don’t know how to let go, it will only make your burden heavier and heavier. In the end, the floating loss will become bigger and bigger, until you are even more dissatisfied. Dare to cut the meat, and finally close the position with a liquidation, so how to choose, how to cut the meat, it depends on whether you should cut the meat in the transaction you make, and whether you should continue to hold it, here is the focus of what I want to talk about today.

Range trading is a trading method that you have to learn whether you should give up or not. When you see a wave of trend coming up, there is a consolidation, and the market is going up and down in the range where this wave of trend has not been broken for a long time, at this time, your long and short transactions in this area are all Reasonable, the premise is that your funds must be able to withstand the ups and downs of this wave of trends. As long as the market has not broken this wave of trend consolidation, your floating losses should not be cut. (Then how to stop losses requires technology , but this is not the focus of what I want to talk about today, there is a chapter on stop loss,) Do you understand what I mean? In other words, once it breaks, if the direction deviates from the original intention, it should be discarded. Otherwise, as I said before, the snowball will get bigger and bigger, and the more you get to the back, the less you dare to cut the meat until the liquidation ends. This is my judgment.

My judgement only comes in before I take the trade. After I take the trade either a buy or a sell, I have my stop loss and take profit ready in place. I will let it either hit stop loss or hit take profit. At most, I would just set my Stop Loss to break even if it is running well in profits. I will not close my trade in the middle or decide to cut my losses.

I used to be obsessed with how to judge reversals or pullbacks, so that I can catch the trend in advance and make strategic adjustments. But with these years of trading, I found that the trend does not talk about the top and the bottom. The market price is a process of generation. Almost all participants take one step at a time. There is no preset ending. The market itself is a complex system , the predictability is very low. Let’s take the simplest non-agricultural data as an example. You can see that before the monthly non-agricultural data comes out, there are always so many people making predictions. Slap in the face. Therefore, in the face of reversals, my cognition is not about how to judge, but how to deal with this "unable to judge" dilemma, because in most cases we cannot judge, and sometimes your judgment is actually wrong Yeah...my take on reversals is that it's nothing more than an evolution from a swing, a reversal is an excessive pullback. Here are some of my favorite strategies:

1. Either regard all shock adjustments as reversals, unless it is finally proved that they are only callbacks, that is to say, as long as you think that there will be adjustments, you will close your positions and wait and see. Unless there are new signals that can prove the continuation of the trend, otherwise do not Will re-enter.

2. Treat all shock adjustments as pullbacks unless they turn out to be reversals. As long as you enter and adjust and hold on, unless a clear trend reversal signal is issued, you will never leave the market, and you will not backhand.

3. As long as you enter the consolidation state, regardless of whether the consolidation proves to be a transitional stage of a callback or a reversal in the end, you should reduce your position. After reducing your position, wait and see what happens. If it continues to rise, increase your position. If it continues to fall, close your position.

I hope it will be of some help to the landlord.

I can’t answer your question. The two parallel lines do not intersect. Your question is not valid in my trading system. Our trading system can be roughly divided into several steps. First, we must plan the market and analyze each level from large to small. Well, find the area where you can make an order, the risk of holding an order, the target, how to deal with it after the stop loss, and what to do where the price goes. You must have a detailed plan. It is very taboo to make a sudden move, most of which are driven by the market Most of the choices made at this time are not rational. You should adjust the order of priority and let the market go according to your plan. In other words, the market trend is in your plan and deviates from your plan. Just come out and wait and see, there is no shame in admitting that you don’t understand, it’s not too late to do it after you understand

I met a very interesting friend before. Let me tell you about his method. My friend used to be of average level. I don’t know if he is from the palace in the past one or two years. He has achieved great success. He mainly does external trading, and the method of judging the direction is very simple. Use the golden section on the perimeter (could it be that the golden section is used too much, and cut yourself off? Haha), if the golden section is not sure, then use other common analysis methods (such as the moving average), if you are not sure, please communicate with me, if you are not sure, analyze the fundamentals. Classic case: For example, when the Hang Seng Index was around 31,000, he first used the golden section to confirm that it was almost at the top, and then asked my opinion, but I used breakthroughs to judge the market, and I was noncommittal to his judgment. So he studied the fundamentals again, thinking that the status of Hong Kong is gradually being replaced by Shanghai, and the opening of Hainan is further bad for Hong Kong. This reason actually convinced me. Then he started to open a position at 31000, and opened a position for every 50 points increase. Using this method, he has made a lot of money on crude oil and the Hang Seng Index for more than three months this year, earning 5 times (high leverage). Currently ready to start waiting for the opportunity to dry gold and silver. Awesome or not?

Of course, you still get used to it. If you trade for a long time, you will naturally form the so-called conditioned reflex and muscle memory. In fact, the unusual market is normal to a certain extent, because volatility is the background of the market.

When the black swan comes, you must digest the relevant event information at the first time, and then draw a rough judgment based on it. Combined with the market, at this time it is more about luck, and there is basically no standard answer whether to go or stay.

In fact, we also have contingency plans when we do transactions. Once you encounter emergencies or extreme market conditions, you can directly act according to the plan regardless of the odds.

These so-called judgments also vary from person to person. Everyone's knowledge structure and market experience will be different. This makes personal judgments diverse or even contradictory.

When making decisions, some students will think that our strategic judgment is very simple. There are only five conditions, and you can open a position if all of them are met. In fact, behind these five conditions, there are a lot of judgment systems. The stage of analyzing the signal is relatively simple.

Briefly describe what factors are considered in my analysis and how they are combined.

1. To judge the direction of the main trend or the direction of the secondary retracement trend, you must have your own criteria for defining the trend.

2. What stage of the trend are you currently in? Budding, early, middle, mid-to-late, late? This can be solved with the help of waves and data statistics.

3. What are the recent important data, which ones are the market concerned about, what is the market sentiment, and what is the willingness to be long and short?

4. Is there a strategy model signal, institutional behavior, and whether it may appear in the near future? When will it appear?

5. According to how the account should be operated, set the position and stop loss line. Where is the target stop profit in the first stage?

6. How to manage the execution process of this transaction to ensure that the basic principles are not violated?

7. Is there any abnormal situation in the market, how to deal with it?

The above is the basic analysis framework idea adopted in the operation of the TB strategy model. Specifically, it will also solve the disk drawing analysis and logical analysis to decide to place an order and control risks.

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Where does the above judgment come from, it is inseparable from the knowledge learned and the long-term observation of the foreign exchange market, and the combination will produce long-term and efficient judgment. I really don't like some people saying that trading should be very simple, just look at the picture. The knowledge and information mastered by people who can really make money in this market must be complicated, but you feel simple when you operate it, so don’t blindly believe that you can be invincible in this market after a few days of simple study, once you encounter cognitive difficulties , it cannot adapt.

Therefore, trading is a science and a discipline. ​

As the topic owner said in the problem description, many problems will be encountered in the process of foreign exchange trading, such as whether it is necessary to resist the order or need to cut the meat out of the game when floating losses, etc., and so on, here I will give you A clear answer, the judgment or plan for dealing with such situations should actually follow the trading rules in your own trading system, and strictly enforce it, because your trading system is already after you judge the market. the overall plan made.

Now that we know that judgment is a core element in the formation of one's own trading system, how to improve judgment is more important than where it comes from.

Judgment is the probability of a person making a decision and making a choice successfully. For investment, excellent judgment must be ahead of time, and it must be ahead of time. Judgment is mainly manifested in the ability to reason logically about cause and effect. To see whether a person is wise or not, one only needs to look at judgment. Because a wise person can often see the effect from the cause, and can also deduce the cause from the effect. The root cause of most people's poor judgment lies in their poor causal reasoning ability. When talking about logical relationships, it must be rational; only under rational circumstances can correct judgments be made.

So how can you improve your judgment?

1. Information screening

People are surrounded by all kinds of information that emerges in an endless stream every day, and the speed of knowledge update in today's society is getting faster and faster. How can we filter out the information that meets our needs from these massive amounts of information? This is a big problem for many people. Is it feasible to just listen to mass media, authoritative media opinions? The country has repeatedly regulated house prices in the past, why did this end up in the end? Much of the textbook knowledge learned in school is "past tense" and out of date with the times, but many people stop studying after graduating from university, no longer refresh their minds, stand still and stagnate. Only by continuing to learn and clearing the brain's inherent prejudices can we improve the ability to screen information more efficiently.

2. Big picture

I have to admit the fact that the pattern determines the size of the achievement. The bigger a person's pattern is, the bigger his career will be. The word "pattern" is rarely discussed in school, and the teacher will not teach it. You can only comprehend it by yourself. Since ancient times: "Those who do not plan for the whole world are not enough for a moment, and those who do not plan for the overall situation are not enough for a corner." Due to the limitations of their own environment, many people in society view problems one-sidedly. They often only think about problems from their own perspective, a typical "butt determines the head" thinking. However, one-sided results are often misleading, and making judgments based on one-sided results is of course unsatisfactory. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the problem from a relatively high position, think and analyze it from various aspects and angles, so as to draw a panoramic conclusion, and such conclusions are truly informative.

3. Critical thinking

Only with critical thinking can we have the ability to think independently. The reason why many people don't know how to think independently is because they don't know how to criticize or question. In school, most of us are used to accepting standard answers and superstitiously believe in the authority of teachers. Therefore, we lose the ability to think about problems, let alone know how to ask questions. This is a great tragedy of education, but we should let go of our ideological burden and move forward boldly. For the questions and opinions raised by others, we must think carefully, dare to question, and carefully verify, so that our thinking ability will be improved.

4. Grasp the main contradiction

No matter how things develop, they are advancing in changes. Only by grasping the main contradictions and main variables of things can we improve the efficiency of decision-making. We cannot simply copy history. We all say that history is repeating, but history is not simply repeating. The fundamental reason for the repetition of history is that human nature has not undergone major changes for several years. For example, many experts say how housing prices were in Japan back then, and how housing prices were in the United States back then, and then they came up with how housing prices in China should be. Can it be so simple? Readers, have you thought about this question? Today's society is changing with each passing day, and the current era is an unprecedented era for human beings. With the development of science and technology, human beings have experienced agricultural civilization, industrial civilization, and information civilization in the past, and now human beings are stepping into "smart" civilization. Therefore, the development of future society will be greatly affected by "Internet of Things," "artificial intelligence", which is the main variable of social change.

As long as the above points are grasped, I believe that personal judgment will be greatly improved. Improving judgment will improve decision-making ability and decision-making efficiency, and personal performance will also be improved accordingly. However, the improvement of judgment is by no means an easy task. "Frozen three feet does not happen in a day." You must make continuous efforts to reach a relatively outstanding level. The tumblers in the business world are constantly learning, bravely trying and embracing new things with a baby-like attitude, paying attention to the changes of the times, and striving to resonate with the times. This is the code for their lasting success.