Chapter 25 2023.8.4 Daily News
MHMarkets
August 4, 2023 - Fundamental Reminder
☆09:30 AUD RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
Investors can pay attention to whether the Australian Fed's rate hike cycle is nearing its end.
☆10:00 CNY The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Press Conference
The press conference will introduce the situation of "playing a good combination of macro policies to promote high-quality economic development".
☆ 20:30 USD Non Farm Payrolls (JUL) & USD Unemployment Rate (JUL)
The market is expected to increase the number of non-farm payrolls in July by 200,000 people year-on-year, which is down slightly from the previous value of 209,000 people. The unemployment rate is unchanged from the previous value, which is still at 3.6%.
MHMarkets
Market Overview
Review of Global Market Trend
-- Data source: jin10 & Bloomberg
NEWS
On Thursday, spot gold was range-bound, falling to an intraday low of $1,929.57 during the session, and ultimately closing down 0.03% at $1,934.10 per ounce; spot silver ultimately closed down 0.62% at $23.57 per ounce.
The dollar index rose to an intraday high of 102.85 during the session, hitting a new high in nearly four weeks. But in the U.S. trading session back all the gains, and finally closed down 0.1% at 102.48. U.S. bond yields, two-year U.S. bond yields rose to an intraday high of 4.925% during the session, and finally closed at 4.883%; 10-year U.S. bond yields rose sharply, and during the session rose to an intraday high of 4.198%, and hit a new high since last November, and finally closed at 4.179%.
After Saudi Arabia announced the continuation of the extension of production cuts, crude oil in the U.S. pre-market session of the strong reversal of the decline and rose sharply. WTI crude oil once again stood above $81, and finally closed up 2.5% at $81.68 per barrel; Brent crude oil back above $85, and finally closed up 2.2% at $85.17 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indexes consolidated throughout the day, the Dow closed down 0.19%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.25%, the Nasdaq index fell 0.1%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index bucked the trend and rose 3.5%, Bilibili rose nearly 9%, NEXTEV and Pinduoduo rose in the 6% line, Alibaba rose 2.6%. The U.S. Superconductor continued to pull back, closing down 16%.
Major European stock indices closed lower across the board, with Germany's DAX 30 closing down 0.79%, Britain's FTSE 100 closing down 0.43% and Europe's Stoxx 50 closing down 0.73%.
Market Focus
-- Source: jin10 & Bloomberg
NEWS
1. Trump made his first court appearance in the case of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 U.S. election.
2. Russian Prime Minister Mishuskin: may reduce tariffs on grain exports within 6 months.
3. U.S. factory orders posted a 2.3% monthly rate in June, which was the biggest increase since January 2021.
4. Warren Buffett says he's not worried about Fitch's downgrade, no change in view on dollar and Treasuries.
5. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, which was the 14th consecutive rate hike since November 2021.
6. Korea Superconducting Low Temperature Society: LK-99 is not a room-temperature superconductor and does not exhibit the Meissner effect.
7. Chinese assets were higher overnight, with the Chinese stock index up over 3.5%, A50 stock index futures up nearly 1%, and the offshore yuan up over 200 pips.
8. Sources: Tesla executives held closed-door talks with India's commerce minister on Tesla's plans to enter the Indian market.
9. According to the Associated Press: in an effort to deter Iranian interference, the U.S. Department of Military Planning deploys armed personnel aboard merchant ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
10. Saudi Arabia extends voluntary production cuts of 1 million bpd until September; Russia will continue voluntary reduction of oil supply in September, oil exports will be reduced by 300,000 bpd.
11. Apple's Q3 revenue continues to decline, Q4 revenue is expected to be close to Q3, and the Mac and iPad businesses are set to decline in double digits in Q4, shares down 2.5% after hours. Amazon's Q2 earnings figures were generally higher than expected, and its revenue guidance range for the next quarter was also higher than expected, with shares jumping 10% after hours and market capitalization increasing by $130 billion.
Geopolitical Situation
——Mohicans Markets ETA
NEWS
Conflict Situation：
1. Zelensky: Heavy fighting on the eastern and southern fronts is difficult, but Ukrainian forces dominate.
2. British Ministry of Defense: scrub growth on the battlefields of southern Ukraine may be a factor in the generally slow progress of fighting in the region.
3. According to Politico: 150,000 Ukrainian soldiers are taking part in a new counter-offensive, but U.S. officials admit that the Ukrainian army has made no significant progress, despite the fact that Ukraine has sent its best NATO-trained troops.
4. According to the Guardian UK: Ukrainian officials say Russian troops have made no progress on the front line, but they are entrenched in heavily mined areas, which makes it difficult for Ukrainian forces to advance east and south.
5. Russian Defense Ministry: 810 Ukrainian servicemen eliminated in Ukraine in one day and night. In the direction of Kupyansk, Hongliman, Kherson, Russian troops carried out strikes against Ukrainian army personnel and weaponry. In addition, Russian air defense forces shot down a number of Ukrainian drones.
6. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that over the past day Russian troops lost 620 soldiers, as well as 7 tanks, 21 armoured vehicles, 26 artillery systems and 35 tactical drones, among other equipment. According to Army Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Serbsky, the Russians were repulsed by the Ukrainian forces despite their aggressive attacks to break through the defense line in the direction of Kupyansk and Hongliman. In the direction of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian army continues to conduct offensive operations and is gradually advancing.
Food Situation：
1. Ukrainian Grain Group raises wheat harvest forecast for 2023 by 13%.
2. Market News: Russian and Turkish deputy foreign ministers discuss grain deal.
3. Russian Prime Minister Mishuskin: Russia may reduce tariffs on grain exports within six months.
4. Ukrainian Prime Minister: Ukraine is considering the possibility of providing insurance for ships and companies transporting through the Grain Corridor.
5. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken: if the food agreement is renewed, the U.S. will continue to ensure that all countries, including Russia, are able to export food products safely.
MHMarkets
Institutional Perspective
01
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs: The Fitch downgrade won't have an immediate impact on U.S. financial markets.
02
SOCIETE GENERALE
【Societe Generale: Brent crude could reach $100 per barrel next year】
August 3-- Oil prices have surged to their highest level in three months as the economic outlook improves and production cuts begin to pay off. Some analysts believe that benchmark crude futures could move toward $100 a barrel. Another move higher in crude futures would quickly translate into higher gasoline prices - which would also make life tougher for officials at the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. Analysts at Societe Generale said Brent crude could reach $100 a barrel next year, while Standard Chartered analysts predicted $98. The Standard Chartered team said daily demand for oil will outstrip supply by 2.8 million barrels a day this month, pushing oil prices even higher. Even if there are no seasonal disruptions caused by refinery maintenance in October, the supply gap could exceed 2 million barrels a day by the end of the year, the team said.
03
MUFG
【MUFG：The BOJ acted stealthfully and waited to see what would happen】
July 28 - By raising the ceiling for its fixed-rate operations to 1%, the BOJ effectively widened the target range for the 10-year government bond yield, making it easier for the central bank to steer the yield target flexibly, said MUFG senior market economist Naomi Muguruma. In this sense, the central bank acted stealthily. The BOJ will likely wait to see how these measures prove effective for the time being. The BOJ will not determine the strength of wage growth and price trends until at least next spring's labor offensive gives clues on wages.
