Chapter 45  2023.9.1 Daily News


September 01, 2023 - Fundamental Reminder

☆ 09:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

☆ 18:00 Fed Bostic delivers a speech

☆ 20:30 CAD GDP MoM (JUN) & USD Unemployment Rate (AUG) & USD Non Farm Payrolls s.a (AUG)

☆ 21:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (AUG)

☆ 22:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (AUG) & USD Construction Spending MoM (JUL)

☆ The next day at 01:00 USD Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (SEP/01)


Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

-- Data source: jin10 & Bloomberg


On Thursday, the Fed's preferred core PCE price index rose slightly as expected, but inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures rose more than expected. The dollar index bounced back from Wednesday's two-week low to end up 0.5% at 103.65.

Treasury yields rose after the data, with the yield on the 10-year note briefly topping 4.1% before falling to close at 4.11%. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to the interest-rate outlook, rose to 4.91% before closing near 4.86%.

Spot gold stopped a three-day winning streak and closed below the $1,940 mark, down 0.13% at $1,939.85 an ounce. Spot silver ended down 0.72% at $24.43 an ounce after a two-day losing streak.

Crude oil for Russia says the rebounded sharply with Opec + take further action. WTI crude topped $83 a barrel for the first time since August 11 and closed up 2.29% at $83.54 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $86 a barrel for the first time since August 15 and closed up 1.76% at $86.74.

The three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.48%, the Nasdaq up 0.11% and the S&P 500 down 0.16%. Popular tech stocks were also mixed, with Amazon up more than 2% and Intel up nearly 2%. Vinfast fell more than 16%, taking its market value to $80 billion.

European stocks major indexes continue to differ, the DAX30 index closed up 0.33%, the FTSE 100 index closed down 0.53%, and the Euro stoxx 50 Index closed down 0.44%.

Market Focus

-- Source: jin10 & Bloomberg


1. The finance minister, yellen will go to India to attend the G20 summit.

2. The SEC delayed a decision on multiple spot bitcoin ETF applications.

3. India's August rainfall was 36% below the long-term average, according to the Indian Meteorological Department.

4. The ARM, which plans to raise 5 billion - $7 billion IPO valuation between $50 billion and $70 billion.

5. Atlanta Fed GDPNow model to cut the Q3 GDP growth forecast to 5.6%.

6. Jiji Press: Japan's top five banks raised home loan rates by 0.1% to 0.2%.

7. The US core PCE price index rose 4.2% in July and 0.2% month-on-month basis, both in line with expectations.

8. Russian deputy prime minister novak: between Russia and Opec + agree to take further action. The new measures agreed will be announced next week.

9. Fed's Bostic: A surprise rise in inflation would support further tightening. Patience is needed; too much austerity can cause unnecessary pain.

Geopolitical Situation

——Mohicans Markets ETA


Conflict Situation:

1. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian mig-31 jets followed Norwegian military aircraft over the Barents Sea.

2. Royal Navy: Royal Navy warships and Royal Air Force patrol aircraft tracked a series of Russian ships in waters near the UK.

3. Russian Defense Ministry: Russian forces repelling Ukrainian attacks in Kupyansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhny and other directions, hitting Ukrainian armored vehicles, US-made M777 artillery and other Ukrainian equipment. An S-200 air defense system was destroyed near Slaviansk. Russian air defense forces also shot down a Ukrainian Tu-141 reconnaissance plane, shot down a number of drones, intercepted a number of "Hakia" rockets.

4. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Over the past day, more than two dozen battles have taken place on the front lines. Ukraine's air force, rocket launchers and artillery units have struck Russian human and equipment concentration areas, missile and air defense systems, radar stations and other targets.   

Assistance Situation:

1. The European Union will set up special funds for long-term to provide arms, providing 5 billion euros a year.

2. Ukrainska Pravda: The 15th Ramstein conference, aimed at discussing assistance to Ukraine, will be held offline on September 19, with the participation of US Secretary of Defense Austin and defense ministers from many countries.

Food Situation:

1. Kremlin: There are no concrete results yet on the proposed grain transport agreement involving Turkey and Qatar.

2. Russian foreign minister sergei lavrov: once you have the specific decision, we will be ready to resume the Ukraine on the black sea food to the part of the agreement. The West is still blocking Russian grain and fertilizer exports.


Institutional Perspective


Goldman Sachs

【Foreign media: The Fed warned about risk regulation at Goldman Sachs 'fintech unit】

August 31, according to the financial times reported, citing people familiar with the words, the U.S. banking regulators of Goldman sachs (GS. N) relationship with the financial company of science and technology puts forward the risk and compliance concerns. Goldman's transaction banking (TxB) unit has stopped signing up riskier fintech clients after the Fed's warning earlier this year. Regulators questions include, when accepting risky non-bank customers, due diligence and monitoring program.



【SOCIETE GENERALE:The dollar remains the most popular currency】

August 24 - Although currency markets are still in the summer doldrums, the US dollar is still the top dog in the market, said Kit Juckes, chief global FX strategist at Societe Generale. In August, dollars all the way higher, and is expected to continue to rise, until the BOJ takes action (They will not meet again until September 22nd). Either European data (unlikely) gets better or US data be weak or Fed officials adopting a more cautious tone at Jackson Hole.



The BOJ's record pace of bond purchases increases the need to adjust yield curve control policies

August 21 -The BOJ has bought government bonds at a record pace this year, which may be one factor prompting the bank to allow yields to fluctuate in a wider range in the near term, reducing pressure on it to keep long-term rates under control. The BOJ hasn't significantly reduced its bond purchases after widening the yield-curve band in December and last month, and the ramp-up after each change raises questions about whether the central bank is moving too slowly to adjust policy and would have to go too far to stop investors from pushing yields too high. Naomi Muguruma, chief fixed-income strategist at MUFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, said that if the BOJ reduced its bond purchases, market participants would take it as a signal that it was close to exiting its easing policy, pushing yields higher and forcing it to buy more.

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