Chapter 48  2023.9.6 Daily News


September 06, 2023 - Fundamental Reminder

☆ TBD Domestic refined oil product opened a new round of price adjustment window

☆ 20:30 USD Balance of Trade (JUL)

☆ 21:15 Bailey, governor of the BOE, gives testimony

☆ 21:45 USD Markit Services PMI Final (AUG)

☆ 22:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision (SEP/06) & USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

☆The next day at 02:00 The Fed releases its Beige Book of economic conditions

☆The next day at 04:30 USD API Crude Oil Stock Change (SEP/01)


Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

-- Data source: jin10 & Bloomberg


On Tuesday, Fed officials were hawkish again, with Waller warning markets not to rush to the conclusion that the Fed is done raising rates. The dollar index rose on news, briefly pushing the 105 mark, before closing up 0.64% at 104.81.

U.S. Treasury yields rose to one-week highs, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.26% from 4.20% and the two-year yield up 10 basis points at one point, recovering more than half of its decline since Tuesday to rise to 4.96% from 4.9%.

Spot gold dollar and bond yields higher suppression, closed down 0.64%, to $1926.09 an ounce. Spot silver continue to diving, almost gave up all the gains over the past 2 weeks, closed down 1.85%, to $23.53 an ounce.

Crude oil was boosted by the extension of supply restrictions by Saudi Arabia and Russia. WTI crude rose as high as $87.55 an ounce, continuing to hit new highs since November and closing up 0.87% at $86.69 a barrel. Brent crude rose as high as $91 a barrel, its highest since November, but fell below the 90 mark to close up 1.11 % at $89.85.

The three major U.S. stock indexes traded slightly lower throughout the day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.56%, the Nasdaq down 0.08% and the S&P 500 down 0.41%. VinFast, a Vietnamese electric-vehicle maker, fell another 11%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 2.1%, with Li Auto down nearly 6% and PDD, Baidu and Bilibili all down more than 2%. Luckin Coffee rose 5% in the powder market, with a total market value of $9.2 billion, up more than 3,430% from its all-time low.

European stocks major stock indexes fell broadly, the German dax index closed down 0.33%, the ftse 100 index closed down 0.17%, and the euro stoxx 50 index closed down 0.23%.

Market Focus

-- Source: jin10 & Bloomberg


1. United Airlines grounded flights across the United States because of computer problems.

2. Britain's second-largest city of Birmingham announced the city's bankruptcy.

3. ARM is expected to raise $4.87 billion, according to its IPO filing.

4. Us media: The FTC plans to file an antitrust lawsuit against Amazon this month after the settlement failed.

5. According to the source, Iraq to Turkey will not recover before oil is expected in October.

6. Rui xing coffee market in the United States pink sheets market from historic lows exceed 3400%, to close to billions dollars.

7. Australian trade unions: willing to work during the upcoming industrial action to ensure that the domestic natural gas supply.

8. India is proposing a resolution to change the country's name to Bharat, which could be an attempt to erase the imprint of the colonial era.

9. Saudi Arabia extended its 1 million b/d cut by 3 months to the end of the year; Russia also announced that it would extend oil exports by 300000 barrels per day to December; Cloth conveniently break through $90 oil, for the first time since November last year.

The fed's third consecutive 10. Australia cut its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.1%, in line with market expectations. The bank retains the flexible language said inflation hawks have peaked.

11. Fed - Governor Waller: Recent data do not suggest that the Fed needs to take immediate action. Once again raising interest rates are unlikely to cause the economy into a recession, 'Ms. : under the background of economy strength and the upside risks to inflation, the fed may need to "a little increase in interest rates.

Geopolitical Situation

——Mohicans Markets ETA


Conflict Situation:

1. Russian Ministry of Defense: Shot down drones in Kaluga, Bryansk, and Crimea.

2. The mayor of Moscow, the Russian air defense troops defeated Ukraine drone attacks attempt to Moscow.

3. According to Interfax: The Russian Defense Minister said that the Ukrainian counteroffensive had not been successful on any front.

4. Russia's elder brother rhode area governor, said local shelling incident.

5. According to the itar-tass news agency: the Russian foreign ministry spokesman said that Ukraine using drone attack Russian territory in Australia.

6. British media: Russian forces have for the first time destroyed a Challenger 2 main battle tank supplied by the UK to Ukraine.

7. The Russian Defense Ministry released a war report on Friday, saying that Russian troops repelling Ukrainian attacks in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk and other directions, hitting Ukrainian drone control centers, ammunition depots, command posts and other targets. Russian air defense forces also intercepted Ukrainian "Hakia" rockets, "Hurricane" rockets and a number of drones.

8. The General Staff of the Ukrainian armed Forces released a war report on the 5th, saying that in the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian armed forces continued to engage with the Russian armed forces in Melitopol and other directions, launching air strikes on the Russian anti-aircraft missile system and other targets, and hitting its ammunition depots, personnel and equipment positions and other targets.

Food Situation:

1. No change is expected in Ukraine's food exports following the Putin-Erdogan talks, Ukrainian government sources said.

2. Market news: Ukraine started sowing winter wheat and rapeseed for the 2024 harvest.

3. The President of Turkey, recep tayyip erdogan, Russia's claim to the (recovery) grain agreement is the agricultural bank into the SWIFT and shipping insurance. The United Nations about food agreement's latest proposal includes a mechanism similar to the SWIFT, about shipping insurance is already underway.


Institutional Perspective


Goldman Sachs

【Goldman Sachs:Maybe we don't need to foam so concerned about artificial intelligence】

Sep 5 - Early winners in artificial intelligence have strong fundamentals and less extreme valuations than stocks from previous tech bubbles, Goldman Sachs Group Inc strategists said, pushing back against concerns that a bubble is forming in the field. Goldman strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer said in a note that they believe people are still in the relatively early stages of a new technology cycle, which could lead to further outperformance. Moreover, the stocks leading the AI rebound are trading at far lower levels than the biggest companies of past tech bubbles, and today's companies are profitable and generating cash flow. OpenAI's ChatGPT tool, released last year, has driven demand for generative A.I. In the case of NVIDIA, the stock is up 232% year-to-date. The outperformance of tech stocks despite the current rise in bond yields suggests investors believe higher future growth rates will offset higher discount rates, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs.



SOCIETE GENERALE:Inflation remains high, and the ECB may raise interest rates faster than expected

Sep 1 - The ECB is likely to focus on its price stability mandate at its meeting on Sept. 14, meaning a higher rate hike could be more likely than markets currently expect, Societe Generale rates strategists said in a note. "Given data dependency and uncertainty, it may be difficult for markets to fully anticipate a rate hike," they said, noting that the outcome of the meeting remains uncertain. "However, the ECB should be pragmatic and focus on its price stability mandate, which remains at risk due to elevated measures of underlying inflation, falling real interest rates and inflation risks skewed to the upside."



According to the Nikkei News: MUFJ and MHCB will collaborate on digital currency。

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