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Which is better, short-term trading, swing trading, or trend trading?

foreign exchange third brother

Which is better, short-term trading, swing trading, or trend trading? This problem has actually troubled me for two full years, and I believe it is even more confusing for some beginners. Especially when the short-term is not doing well, I want to switch to the swing band. It is hard to make money in the swing band. If a retracement takes most of the profits, I think this band is too tortured. Start switching again. Repeatedly like this... In the end, it is still unclear how long the market cycle is. It's not for everyone to settle down, but at least you have to be clear about your position, what kind of trader are you mainly. So what kind of trading method is correct? I am here to say that there is no formula or method, and you must try one of your main operating cycles. Here is my understanding of these three trading cycles. Short-term trading: Generally, the intraday market is done with a maximum period of four hours and 30 minutes or 15 minutes as the entry point to seize the wave of the day's market and leave, even without considering holding positions overnight and occasionally holding positions overnight. Others say that if you do the market for five minutes, you can run after grabbing 20 points. In my case, the definition is ultra-short-term trading. Swing trading: Take the daily line as the cycle, four hours and one hour as the basis for entering the market. The holding cycle may be in one week, two weeks or even one month. When the swing is in place or you get the point you want, you will exit the market. Trend trading: It is an extension of swing trading. The general trend trading may look at the weekly and monthly lines and the four-hour period of the daily line as the entry point, and the holding period may be several months or even more than a year. But these three trading modes are all mutual. Short-term trading also includes small-period swings. There are countless short-term trading bands and trend trading in swing trading, including at least three swing trading or even more. Here I will talk about my experience. Ultra-short-term trading is almost impossible to make money. Commission fees may kill you. In addition, it is generally difficult to achieve a suitable profit-loss ratio in ultra-short-term trading. The winning rate is very high and I can't bear the loss of a few orders. If you don't discuss it here, pass him off. So which way is better? The answer is clear or not clear. It has a great relationship with personal character and experience. If you are a novice or have a bad temper or short-term temper, then I suggest you to do short-term trading within the day. Because of swing trading, it is very difficult for you to hold positions. If you are usually busy and have no time to watch the market and do not want to watch the market, then consider doing the swing for a few days. If you want to follow the trend from the beginning of entering the market, then keep doing the trend. It was not clear just now, but in most cases he is clear, because this is related to himself, it is clear for you, it is not clear for you and the public. I don't want to give an ambiguous answer, and analyze it in depth again. All of the above are closely related to your own financial situation. Why do you say that? Everyone wants to enter this market to make money, or we need to accumulate experience and capital in this market in the early stage. Short-term trading is very suitable for those traders, because there are relatively many short-term trading opportunities, which help you quickly accumulate experience and capital. There are much fewer opportunities for swing trading, and there may be no chance to place an order for a week or two. The effect of accumulating experience will be much worse if the order does not enter the market. Not to mention the big trend trading, there are fewer opportunities, and you can just touch less if you don’t have a certain amount of funds. Here, in order to explain this issue more clearly, I will talk about the process of trying to understand this issue. At that time, I only had $2,000 in funds, and I was thinking about which method was more suitable for me. After a period of short-term work, I didn’t make any money. I thought it was wrong for the band. The band made money at the beginning, and the book said let the profits run When I got up, I patiently held the position, and the result was a sharp pullback, and I gave back most of my profits. After holding it for half a month, I didn’t make a penny. I was so upset that I might as well lose the profit. Back to the short-term again, for a full two years, switching again and again. It's very confusing. After watching the Kuomintang-Communist War, I figured it out. There were not many fighters in the early stage of the Communist Party, and the lack of sophisticated equipment was basically a situation of millet and rifles. But what he needed to do was to fight guerrillas and kill a group of enemies and seize some equipment and run away. Several years of guerrilla warfare has accumulated some mass base and wealth, and then we can organize some medium-scale war strength. When the medium-scale war is won, the mass base will be larger, and there will be more firearms and equipment, then we can engage in large-scale frontal wars. confronted. The three major battles are the accumulation of guerrilla warfare with millet and rifles in the early stage. Guerrilla warfare is short-term trading to quickly accumulate experience and materials. The Hundred Regiments War means that the accumulation of swing trading experience, strength and funds will develop and grow rapidly to a certain extent. The three major battles are trend trading, and the outcome will be determined in one round. So to understand it for a while, when you have insufficient financial strength and insufficient experience, you need to fight a few more small battles to accumulate experience and funds. But these are just accumulations. Don't think about winning big and making big money. If you accumulate to a certain level later, you will have to engage in wave bands. The real funds are several million dollars, and only large bands and major trends will have the opportunity to engage in them. Don’t just want to engage in swings and trends with a few hundred dollars, because you don’t have the ability to confront directly now (it’s basically impossible to engage in swings with small stop losses) and don’t want to engage in short-term trading with millions of dollars.

The third brother teaches you how to trade

Trading courses and coaches are useless- true or not

logicaltrader

Since everybody could be a coach in trading as soon as he/she can read a chart it’s very difficult to find a proper education and an honest mentor. I want to share my experience with you in this video. https://www.trading.live/en/logicaltrader/video/20183

Trading with pure logic and trend following

Do you really love trading?

jiaoyi golden eagle

I believe that every trader enters the financial market to make money, but after a few years of trading, you will gradually find that the more you want to make money, the less money you can make, and the more you lose money... After a long time, you will also find that traders are a group of very distinctive groups. They sometimes sigh, sometimes dance with joy, sometimes beat their chests and feet, sometimes think silently, sometimes look at everything, and sometimes despair... The root cause of all this is that trading is really difficult... And when you have been sinking in the transaction, you may think, why is it always backfired? God is really unkind to you! Really good luck... However, if you go back to the source, you will find that the problem is that you don't really love trading! Why do you say that? What is it like to love trading? Think about it, what is it like when you love something? When you love something, you are so interested in everything related to it, and you will take the initiative to learn related knowledge and put it into practice, and always enjoy it, even Sleepless nights. Do the math, how many trading-related books have you read in total? How much time did you spend replaying in a day? We all know that the 10,000-hour rule is reflected in all walks of life, and it is basically reasonable. It does not guarantee your success, but it is also the minimum requirement. If you really love trading, there will always be an incredible enthusiasm for learning the knowledge of trading and researching candlesticks, etc., even surpassing many leisurely entertainment activities! (Of course, the occasional work-rest balance is also necessary.) If you really love trading, you will regard every failure and setback in trading as a difficulty or a challenge, but you will never give up lightly! If you really love trading, you will think about the business of trading as a whole, and seriously build a trading system with positive expectations, get through every link in the trading system, and then strictly implement the trading system. If you really love trading, you will make changes for trading, just like if you love someone, you will also be willing to change some of your behavior habits for it. So, ask yourself, do you really love trading? Still like the feeling of making quick money? Please be honest and serious with yourself... If you just like the feeling of making quick money, then you can easily embark on the path of the sad gambler, and then run wild on this road to fail Extricate yourself... If not, then think about it, trading requires us to strictly control risks, have you done it? Are you willing to change your greedy heart for the sake of trading? Are you willing to decline the entertainment invitation of your friends for the sake of trading, and stay at home alone to face thick books or boring K-lines? (Of course, it won't be boring for those who love it.) Or, are you willing to allow yourself to maintain absolute self-discipline for the sake of trading? Or, are you willing to constantly cultivate your heart for the sake of trading? If you haven't done all of the above, it means you don't love trading. And it is easier for a person to succeed only if he works hard on the things he loves. Each of us needs to constantly reflect on ourselves, and it is quite painful to reflect on ourselves and dig out our own wounds, but it is worth it, and only in this way can we transform and be reborn from Nirvana! Moreover, each of us will form certain specific thinking patterns during the growth process. Some thinking patterns are conducive to trading, while some thinking patterns are not conducive to trading. Therefore, read more books, or talk to people more. Communication can broaden our vision, optimize our thinking mode, and even improve our cognitive level, so that we can avoid detours in transactions and continue to make progress! I hope that friends who are on the road of trading really love trading and walk on a spacious and bright road! Finally, I present a seven-character quatrain to encourage you who are interested in trading for a living! Qinghai Changyun dark snow mountain, the lonely city looks at Yumen Pass in the distance. The yellow sand wears the golden armor in a hundred battles, and it will not return until it breaks Loulan.

Jiaoyi Golden Eagle Exchange Circle

Cost and Profit Factors of Frequent Trading

微凉的天空

Frequent transactions, this is a commonplace problem. This time we use another perspective to look at frequent transactions, that is, transaction costs. Taking gold as an example, the spread of each platform is about 3-5 points on average, right? floating. Then a standard lot is about 30 to 50 dollars in cost, and the cost is 40 dollars if you take the middle value (that is, you will lose 40 dollars when you enter the market). Europe and the United States are probably floating around two points, there are also 1.5 points or 1 point, and there are even fewer. On the whole, the cost of 1 standard lot of 15 US dollars is not high, and of course it is not low. Every time a position is opened, it is 1 standard lot. According to normal fund management, the account must have at least 10,000 US dollars. Assuming that the trader does gold and Europe and the United States, add up to 1 standard lot. The average cost of each transaction is 30 US dollars, which is higher for gold and lower for Europe and the United States. The trading frequency is slightly higher, and it is not too much to do 50 lots a month. Then after one month, 50×30, the cost of 1500 US dollars, 15% of the original amount of the account. If you do it for 6-7 months, how much will the transaction cost be? It will be the same as the principal, which means that the transaction cost will reach 10,000 US dollars. During these 6-7 months: ① If the account profit is 100% , then it is actually earning 200%, and 100% of the transaction costs are deducted from the 200%, and the final profit is 100%. ②The account earns 20% , how much money is it actually earned? 120%. But the cost of 10,000 US dollars was paid, and the remaining 2,000 US dollars became profit. ③Congratulations , why should I congratulate you? Because in fact your transaction is a tie, no profit or loss, but six or seven months of transaction costs directly blow up your trading account. So do it 50 times a month, and each time you do one hand, this is the case. In fact, it has the same meaning to scale up or scale down, and it is calculated as a proportion. Therefore, there are many trading opportunities and opportunities to make money, but the transaction costs have also increased, and more money needs to be made to make up for the losses on transaction costs. What's more, whether you can make money after placing an order is another matter, but the transaction costs are actually there. I guess many people haven't really calculated how scary this account is. Then, you just feel that there are more trading opportunities and more opportunities to make money, but at the same time, there are also more opportunities to lose money. Some people may say that I have earned all the points that should be earned. Does the transaction have more profit possibilities? Then do the math again. Is there a direct relationship between the profit of the transaction and the number of points earned? Of course, there must be an indirect relationship, but in fact there is no direct relationship. Why? For example, assuming that I and another trader A have similar trading abilities and are exactly the same in all aspects (uniform variable, easy to calculate), I make 5 transactions a month, and I calculated in two years, the maximum drawdown That is 3 times the single risk retracement. Little A makes 50 transactions a month, and the maximum drawdown is 30 times the single risk drawdown. I can afford a retracement of 3,000 US dollars, and I can use 1,000 US dollars in a single transaction; Xiao A can also bear a retracement of 3,000 US dollars, but because he has a single risk retracement of 30 times, so he can get at most one transaction. Offer $100. The total profit-loss ratio of our accounts is the same, taking a risk of 3,000 US dollars can earn 9,000 US dollars a year. In the end, as long as our trading ability is the same, Xiao A and I will actually earn the same amount of money in the end, both of which are 9,000 US dollars. It's just that he does more and I do less. I do less, but I have a high single risk, and he does a lot, and the single risk is low. See, making money from trading has nothing to do with how many points you grab. We are not analysts, we are traders. The analyst said, look, I predicted a market, and I made 100 points from one range to another, 80 points next time, and 60 points next time. This is usually called to the teacher Shan or the analyst to count the points in this way. But as a trader, what we should think about is a purely mathematical problem. What are these factors related to our money making? The first one is single risk. Is your single risk high or low? The second is profitability efficiency. What is profitability efficiency? It is the account profit divided by the number of transactions. The contribution value of each transaction to one's own account is called profit efficiency. Are you high or low? As I said just now, the efficiency between me and little A is the same, so I scale up proportionally. If my efficiency is high, his efficiency is low; One side might be stronger. The third is the total profit and loss ratio of the account. For example, if you withdraw 30%, you can earn 90% in two years, and you can earn 45% in one year. This is the total profit and loss ratio of an account. The fourth is transaction costs. This was explained at the beginning. Among all the factors related to whether the transaction makes money or not, there are no points. You earn 1,000 points and others earn 100 points. It is very possible that the person who earns 100 points earns more than you, or has a higher profit rate than you. That's why I said there is no direct relationship. Note that there is no direct relationship, not no relationship. When many people do transactions, they do a lot of fun, but in the end they don't make money, or even lose money. Because the focus direction is wrong, where is the focus point? Account Analysis. First, analyze the single risk of the account, the maximum drawdown, the profit efficiency, and the total profit-loss ratio of the account. How much is the transaction cost calculated by your own transaction frequency, and then fund management. There must be stable trading behavior before fund management, otherwise, fund management will not be possible. Only by slowly putting the focus on these places can there be an essential improvement at the transaction level.

Sky Forex Institute

Detailed explanation by foreign bigwigs, head and shoulders bottom pattern trading strategy, including distinguishing patterns, entering and exiting settings

抹茶

The head and shoulders pattern is a chart pattern that fools many traders, however, if traded correctly, it can allow traders to catch the start of a new trend and even "predict" market bottoms in advance. What is a head and shoulders pattern? The head and shoulders pattern is a bullish pattern, indicating that it is under the control of the buyer at this time, as follows: Now let's look at what head and shoulders really mean: Left Shoulder - This is a pullback to a downtrend due to profit-taking or eager buyers entering the market Head - Sellers are still in control when they push the price lower, however, at this point buyers step in and push the price higher and test the previous high. Right Shoulder - Sellers become weak as they are unable to push the price lower, conversely, buyers are getting stronger while continuing to push the price higher, thus retesting the resistance area. If the price breaks through the resistance level at this time, the head and shoulders bottom pattern is confirmed, and the price may continue to rise. Common Mistakes When Trading Head and Shoulders Patterns The duration of the head and shoulders pattern is important. The longer the formation time of the pattern, the greater the possibility of the formation of the pattern, conversely, the shorter the duration of the pattern, the greater the possibility of failure. Especially when a trader is trading based on the current trend. As shown below: The "small" head and shoulders pattern in a downtrend, we can see that for the past 12 months, the price has been in a downtrend, and then formed a head and shoulders pattern within a few weeks. So at this time, will the 12-month trend prevail, or will the head-and-shoulders of a few weeks prevail? When to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern? When the following three situations occur, traders need the main head and shoulders pattern (for reference) 1. When the market is in an upward trend 2. When the pattern favors a higher time frame structure 3. When the pattern forms more than 100 K lines The following are respectively described: 1. When the market is in an upward trend As you can see, the head and shoulders pattern is a bullish chart pattern, so when the price is in an upward trend, the possibility of profit increases, as shown in the figure below: 2. When the pattern favors a higher time frame structure On its own, the head and shoulders pattern is not important, however, if it is close to a higher time frame structure (such as support or resistance of a larger period), it can be a powerful chart pattern at this time. As shown below: You can see that the price is at support on the daily time frame, so let's zoom out a bit: The head and shoulders pattern on the 2-hour time frame relies on the support structure on the daily chart 3. When the pattern forms more than 100 candlesticks A "small" head and shoulders pattern can fail in a strong downtrend, so if the market reverses, this chart pattern should form at least 100 bars. Because over time, more buy stop orders will accumulate above the high of the neckline, and if the price breaks out of the neckline, it will push the price higher. As shown below: The chart pattern in the figure lasted 27 days and 12 hours, forming a total of 103 K lines. Head and shoulders pattern: breakthrough and accumulation Not all head and shoulders patterns are created equal, as the way the right shoulder forms is a key factor in whether a trader wants to trade a breakout, for example: If the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern is long, you need to avoid entering the market after the breakout. why? Since the price has moved a long way from the low of the right shoulder to the resistance area, it has attracted a lot of buyers at this time, so the market is likely to face profit-taking (selling pressure from buyers) So the best way is to use the breakout to trade the breakout. As shown below: The right shoulder is tight, and when a trader sees multiple pressures on the resistance line, it indicates that the trader has buying pressure that is willing to buy at a higher price, so when the price breaks through the resistance level, a series of stop losses Will provide fuel for price increases. In addition, the stop loss is finally placed below the low point of the right shoulder. What if you miss a breakout trade? We can't trade every breakout exactly, so what should we do when we miss a breakout trade? 1. If the price suddenly breaks out, wait for the previous resistance level support to retest 2. If the price retests the area, wait for a bullish signal to appear (e.g. hammer pattern, bullish engulfing pattern, etc.) 3. If there are entry conditions, the stop loss should be 1 ATR lower than the support level Let's take a look at the following example: Price retested the area and formed a bullish engulfing pattern Head and shoulders pattern: the first retracement The first pullback after a breakout is actually a good trading opportunity, because traders who missed the previous trading opportunity are eager to catch up with the trend for fear of missing out, so when the price breaks out to a new high and forms a new buying When entering pressure, buying pressure may be broken quickly. 1. If you miss the breakthrough, don't rush to catch up with the market. On the contrary, it is better to wait for the price to pull back. 2. Ideally, the callback is small 3. If there is a pullback, go long when the swing high is broken, and the stop loss is 1 ATR below the swing low As shown below: How to choose the exit point? There are two ways to exit a trade: 1. Price forecast 2. Trailing stop loss 1. Price forecast In the chart analysis, calculate the distance between the head and the neck, and then add it to the breakout point, and the position of the upper high point is the take profit exit point. As shown below: 2. Trailing stop loss Unlike forecasting, trailing stop loss does not use a fixed target point to take profit, the specific method is as follows: Determine the type of trend to do (whether it is a short-term, medium-term or long-term trend) With proper moving average trailing stop loss Exit the trade when the price closes at the moving average. As shown below: Article source: Rayner Teo, an independent trader in Singapore, the most concerned trader, and the founder of the TradingwithRayner website.

Trading experience record

Is trading worth a lifetime of effort? How much does it cost to be a full-time trader?

foreign exchange third brother

It's a big question like is it worth your life to learn dance? Is it worth your life to make music? Is it worth your life to write? This is a difficult question to answer, but also an easy one to answer. The reason why it is difficult to answer is that I don't know your interest and enthusiasm for trading, and I don't know your environment. I don't know whether you have the qualities and potential that a professional trader should have. So it's hard to answer because everyone is different. It’s a good answer, maybe I’ll ask you if you like it, are you willing to enter this industry with enthusiasm, and you won’t regret it even if your head is broken? As long as you are willing and you have a firm answer, I say go try it. As for whether I can do it for the rest of my life, that is a matter for the future. Who dares to say that I will do this thing in my whole life? People live in change, just like me I love trading and now I make a living trading, but can it really be ruled out that one day I will get tired of it? Maybe one day I can't keep up with energy, or I see something I like more, maybe I will treat it as a hobby, just like playing chess and balls, a simple hobby. These are all possible. I don't suggest that everyone should look at one thing persistently from the beginning. While this market is glamorous it can also be considered a career as a breadwinner. Many people have asked such a question. They say it's better to trade full-time or part-time. Most of my answers are to temporarily engage in part-time work and trade. If you feel like doing part-time trading, you can also control your emotions, and you will not be tired of the pain and suffering of trading before considering full-time trading. Some people also said that I wanted to be full-time from the beginning, and I said that's okay, as long as you have the determination, why can't you. The road is blazed by yourself, and you don’t dare to decide which road to take and let others choose the road for you. I guess you will not have much future in this life. The issue of full-time and part-time is not discussed here. I just use my experience and the experience of traders I have seen to help you analyze which one is suitable for you? Here I want to talk about the cost and value of full-time traders? Everyone is different so don't make a conclusion. Someone told me that they don't want to go to work anymore and want to work at home full-time. I usually ask him a few questions. The first one, can you bear the result of 5 years, 6 years or even 10 years of trading without making money and a high probability of losing money? The second question is how much do you do by yourself now? Even if these funds make money, can you support your family? Third: Do you have great ideals purely for the enthusiasm for trading or do you just want to make quick money in this market? The first question may disappoint everyone. It is not bad to be stable without losing money for 5.6 years. Most people have basically lost their fortunes in the past five or six years. People in this market think of themselves this way, and in the end they were subdued by the market's lesson, and they fled in a mess. In addition, what should you do if you don't make money and have no source of income? Many people say that it is impossible not to make money, so where do you get the confidence from? This market is really scary. A novice trader with an account of only 100 US dollars has the confidence to make 1,000 US dollars a month and 10,000 US dollars a year. Isn't it? 10,000 US dollars is better than ordinary migrant workers. This is the frightening thing about the market. It can always attract you with its own charm, then magnify your desire infinitely, and then kill you cruelly and mercilessly. If your own family conditions are very good, you don’t need to support your family, and you still have the enthusiasm for this transaction, you can use 20% of your family funds to trade. Set yourself a good number and cycle of losing money (this may not be understood by many novices, please listen patiently later, I won’t go into details here). If you lose money, you will be killed and stop depositing money, and find a career that suits you again. The second question you want to do full-time at home, how much money do you have to do it? How much do you earn to support your family. Some people say that if you have 1,000 US dollars, if I double it in a month, it is better than going to work. I said, can you do it? Almost 8 out of ten people said the same or more. What about the risks? How big is your risk exposure? Earning 1,000 a month can also lose 1,000 a month. The profit and loss are from the same source. I don’t understand this truth, so I’m talking about trading. It must be your fate to lose. Some people say that I want to make a stable profit of 5 10 and I say that is not bad. If you make 1000 dollars, you can earn 100 dollars a month, and 5000 dollars can make 500 dollars. Is doubling a year enough for you to feed your family? It should not be enough now. Let's not talk about compound interest, because I don't believe you, a novice, have a stable 10 nonsense. Why such a small capital, because for novice traders, most of them who want to trade at home full-time do not have large accounts. I'm just talking about most of them, so don't generalize. Those who really put out 50,000 US dollars to do transactions have their own other businesses instead, and transactions are not full-time. Then you think about your logic to keep yourself alive. Is full-time trading right for you. This does not rule out the precedent of getting rich overnight in a short period of time, which is not within the scope of our thinking. The third is very important, whether you are passionate about trading or want to make quick money in this market. Some people are passionate, some people are making quick money, and most of them may have both. There is nothing wrong with it, but it is very important to work at home full-time. If you don’t have enthusiasm, you can’t stay. You may quit once you encounter setbacks and pressure in a few months and half a year. (Quitting is also a good thing in my opinion). It's even more ridiculous, as soon as you make money, you will die as quickly as possible. I won't be verbose here anymore. The above three points, if you want to do business at home full-time, think carefully, don’t take it seriously, calm down and think about whether what I said makes sense, because I have experienced it like this, and I have seen no less than 1,000 people come or quit like this of. Don't drill into your own small universe to control your thoughts with the secretion of the cerebral cortex, then you will often prove that you are right. The above calculations are scary. If you don’t make money in 5.6 years, there is a high probability that you will make money in the future. It’s also uncertain whether you will make money in the future. This market does not mean that you will become a master after a long time and make a lot of money. Everyone must recognize this. The good years of 5.6 years, not to mention losing money, is to earn a little. Is it worth it to you, because if you spend 5.6 years in other industries, you may have a good low-level position and a lot of income in the company and industry. . But the distance between these pros and cons is widened. Think about it carefully, I am not a person who persuades gambling, nor is I a person who persuades others not to trade. I am objectively judging the cruelty of this industry. So if you really want to work full-time, there is almost no way out? No, those who really want to be full-time traders can find local institutions and companies. There are many such positions. Some of them may be mostly recruiting business, because you have no experience and no one would dare to let you trade, but some will also train some order makers. You can start with the order clerk. At the very least, they are with the market every day, at least they have a basic salary, and they will get a part of the commission if they make a profit. If you are not a rich second generation and you don't have very basic starting capital, I think this is the best choice for you to become a professional trader. Let me give you an example at the end. There is a friend from Jiangsu who lost a lot of money in a previous transaction and was blocked by debt collectors. trading job. However, traders in Hong Kong place great value on academic performance in trading, that is, they use data to speak. Tried multiple interviews without success. He was disappointed but still didn't want to give up. In the end, he found a job as a driver for the boss of the institution in order to get close to the institution and see how real trading institutions do transactions. Since the boss has a lot of free time, he can stay in the office as long as the boss doesn’t go out. He keeps a small amount of money when he is paid every month, and he spends most of the money on his colleagues in the trading department. Have a meal. His purpose is very clear, I just want to see and learn how they trade and how they engage in risk control. The colleagues in the trading department like him very much, and after getting to know him well, they also understand his experience. The boss also knew about this matter, and appreciated his unyielding and practical work. One day he called him to the office and said that he had hired a new driver, so don’t do your job. At first he thought that his boss knew about his escape to Hong Kong. He wanted to explain something, but the boss interrupted him with a smile. Say, go to the trading desk, they're waiting for you. He told me that he is a 180-year-old man who has never cried for so many years, even when he ran away from home, but at that moment he cried badly. I went to the trading department for three months of training, because I accepted new risk control measures and my own experience. Get started soon. At present, I heard that it manages more than 3 billion US dollars of funds, and it is doing futures, foreign exchange and Hong Kong stocks~

The third brother teaches you how to trade

How to judge a trader's trading ability?

胖松说汇1

I believe that many traders have asked or been asked by others: How much do you earn in a month? Or: How much do you earn a year? So simply judging from the amount of income, or the percentage of income, can we see whether a trader's trading level is high or low? The rate of return is indeed the most basic indicator to identify a trader, but it is better to judge a trader with a high rate of return purely from the rate of return, so I think it is still relatively one-sided. Because depending on the amount of funds, as well as the withdrawal rate of account funds, the number of traded orders, transaction time, etc., these things are all factors that affect the profitability of the account. A simple example (in order to make everyone understand better, the example I gave is relatively extreme. I don’t really mean to make a comparison, but I just want everyone to really understand the meaning): a tens of billions of dollars An account with an annual income of 20%; an account worth tens of millions of dollars, an annual income of 50%; Comparison, then it must be that the account yield of 1,000 US dollars is the highest. Of course, in theory, what can be done with 1,000 US dollars, as long as it is superimposed according to the multiple, when the same trader trades, other accounts can definitely achieve an annualized 500% return. But as I said just now, this is only in theory. In actual operation, the larger the account, the stricter the risk control needs to be done, because once the loss occurs, the large account will lose a lot of money, and even if the small account is liquidated, it will only be 1,000 US dollars. Therefore, it is not comprehensive to judge the trading ability of a trader simply from the rate of return. So how to judge the strength of a trader's trading ability? Today I will tell you about three indicators. Through these three indicators, you can judge the trading level of a trader relatively comprehensively. This is also the indicator I used to assess traders in asset management companies. It is also the indicator that I usually use to measure my trading situation for a certain period of time. The first indicator is the total profit and loss ratio of the account, and its calculation formula is: the maximum profit of the account / the maximum loss of the account. Simply put, this indicator is how much did you pay to get your biggest benefit? For example, if you also earn 100,000 U.S. dollars, A account is exchanged for 200,000 U.S. dollars; B account is exchanged for 50,000 U.S. dollars, and C account is exchanged for 10,000 U.S. dollars; It can be clearly seen that the profit is also 100,000 US dollars, and account C has earned so much money with only 10,000 yuan. At the same time, its risk is also the smallest, so there is no doubt that account C is more capable in this regard Some. In other words, if I were to hand over my money to these three traders, I would choose the trader who traded account C, because I would take less risk on my own. Of course, this is just an indicator, and it will be more extreme and biased to use a single indicator to measure the ability of a trader. Because an indicator can only reflect a certain ability of a trader, it is not comprehensive. This indicator can only reflect the peak-to-trough ratio of a trading account, but there is no way to reflect the winning rate, final value and other data, so we need to use the second indicator to judge. The second indicator is the profit rate of a single transaction, and its calculation formula is: current rate of return/number of transactions. That is to say, the rate of return (percentage) of your current account is divided by the total number of orders you have traded, that is, how many transactions you have made in total (note here, it is the number of times, not the number of hands). This indicator and the previous indicator are actually used to measure transaction efficiency. But the first indicator is used to measure the overall rate of return, and this indicator is used to measure the rate of return of a single order. For example, the current profit of account A is 30%, and he has made 20 transactions, then the single transaction rate of return of account A is 1.5%. This value means that no matter how the transaction is, as long as my order enters the market, Then it will bring me a 1.5% rate of return (what, don’t understand? Think about it carefully, and you will understand). That is, if I make 100 transactions, normally my account rate of return should be 150%. Of course, the larger the statistical sample of this data, the better, and the longer the statistical time span, the better, so that the reliability of the final data obtained will be higher. The third indicator is the risk-reward ratio, which is how many times your return is based on the risk. Still use the A account just now as an example. The final profit is 30%. Assuming that he trades with a 2% risk, then we can say that the risk-reward ratio is 15 times, that is, we have earned 15 times the risk value. The advantage of this is that regardless of your capital size, you can use such an indicator to make a relatively standard judgment. I think this kind of transaction will be more efficient. Finally, we use a specific case to conduct a specific analysis through the above three indicators. Suppose we have two accounts. Account A used to have a maximum profit rate of 40% and a maximum drawdown of 5%; The maximum profit rate of account B was 100%, and the maximum retracement was 50%. Because this is a case, for the convenience of calculation, try to use positive numbers to express. The above is the first data, let's talk about the second data: The current profit rate of account A is 24%, and the single risk is 2% (that is to say, for an account of 10,000 US dollars, the fixed loss of each order is 200 US dollars), and it has been traded 18 times; The current profit rate of account B is 84%, and the single risk is 4%, with 50 transactions. We will now make a comparison according to the above data. First of all, the first indicator (total profit and loss ratio of the account), the maximum profit of account A is 40%, and the maximum drawdown is 5%, then the value of the first indicator is 40%/5%=8; the maximum profit of account B is 100%, the maximum retracement is 50%, then its value is 100%/50%=2; From this value, we can clearly see that the total profit and loss ratio of account A is higher than that of account B . In other words, if account A also loses 50% of the same amount, then its profit rate should reach 10 times the previous income, that is, a profit of 400%. From this aspect, we can see more clearly that in the same Under the same risk conditions, the income of account A is 4 times higher than that of account B. Let's take a look at the second indicator, the profit rate of a single transaction. The single income of account A is 24%/18=1.33%, but the risk of each transaction is 2%; the single income of account B is: 84%/50=1.68%, the risk of a single transaction It is 4%; if we simply compare the two figures, 1.68% is higher. However, if the single risk of A account is increased to 4%, then the single profit rate of A account should also be expanded, which becomes 1.33%*2=2.66%; so we can also see from this that this When the single risk value of the two accounts is the same, the profit that account A can obtain should be higher. The third indicator is the risk-reward ratio. From the above data, it is obvious that account A earns 24%/2%=12; account B earns 84%/4%=21; assuming that both accounts have been trading for 2 months, we It can be clearly known that account A has only 18 opportunities to trade in these 2 months, while account B has 50 times. The reason why account B can achieve a risk-reward ratio of 21 times is because it has much higher trading opportunities than account A in the same period of time. The number of trading opportunities may be limited by the trading system itself, or it may be limited by the trader's own trading style. But no matter what the situation is, a trader must strictly abide by the trading discipline. Account A can only have 18 trading opportunities in 2 months, not more than that; Account B has 50 trading opportunities. Therefore, in the case of a fixed time, the benefits brought by account B may be higher. In fact, if you judge or if you choose a trader, the key lies in which point you pay attention to. If you are more concerned about risk control, or more concerned about the potential (obtained by increasing the risk) higher return value, then you can choose A account; The amount of return value, but you need to take a higher risk, then you can choose the B account. This is like buying a car. If you pay more attention to comfort, then you can choose a Mercedes-Benz. If you pay more attention to driving, then you can choose a BMW (as the saying goes, drive a BMW and ride a Mercedes-Benz). Disclaimer: This article does not mean to criticize anyone, it is just a sharing, and does not mean to designate or criticize someone. If you have a better way to judge the level of a trader, you are welcome to write In the comments below; or which point you pay more attention to the above, you are welcome to comment below and express your personal thoughts.

Foreign exchange trading thinking

How to do every transaction well with a "return to zero" mentality?

the finishing touch for the currency market

Hello everyone, I am the eye of the foreign exchange market. Today we will talk about a sentence that I have been emphasizing. How should we understand every transaction with a zero mentality? Familiar old friends may have heard me say this many times. So how do we actually do it in the trading market? No one is a god in the trading market, and everyone will make mistakes. It is impossible for us to succeed in every transaction. To sum up experience after every success, and to sum up experience after every failure. Don't be arrogant in victory, not discouraged in defeat. Minimize mistakes as much as possible, which is the mentality often mentioned in people's trading. First, every trader will have his own trading system, which is what people often say, all roads lead to Rome. First of all, you want to test whether your trading system is feasible? How to be sure? Personally, I think we should look at the profit-loss ratio first, and then the winning percentage. If it's double matched then it's indeed doable. All that's left is to implement it, and no matter who you hear advice from, you can't hinder the implementation of your trading system. In fact, many traders are most likely to receive external interference. Although their own system is feasible, they do not firmly believe in their own point of view. After the market comes out, they feel regretful. Over time, the whole person will become less confident, and even feel that the whole market is aimed at you. What I just mentioned are people who have their own trading system, so let’s talk about what to do if you don’t have your own trading system, or if you have just entered this market. First of all, you have to think about why you choose to do currency investment? What is the purpose of your currency investment? Do you make a plan for yourself before every transaction (including how much you can lose at most in this transaction, how much profit you can earn, and what is the general direction of your prediction for the market today? What do you want to do? A trading cycle at the level, whether your execution is strong enough, etc.) So many people have been saying that I always lose money and so on. In fact, everyone loses money at times, but you didn’t do it yourself in advance. Prepare, it may also lead to more losses for a while, of course, this is also related to fund management, and how to build your own trading system, I will write a special article about my method in a later article. Second, in the currency market, we do not have a specific enemy. All participants are the same as you. All those who want to make a profit only think of making money. Don't think about where your money comes from. Buffett makes so much money (those who lose money should be jealous of him, right?), but the fact is that instead of treating him as an enemy, people put him on the altar and worship him as a god. In the market, your enemies do exist, that is greed and fear, and there is always a devil living in your heart. Greed makes people lost, fear makes people cringe. As long as these two enemies can be overcome, every month in the trading career will be a harvest season, and there will be no more winters and no snowstorms. Because of greed. Traders don't know what to do, and blindly chase ups and downs; because of greed, traders often don't give up until they reach their goals; because of greed, traders are afraid of missing trading opportunities, and can't stop killing people in a hurry before the actual arrival; because of greed, traders Going all-or-nothing often...these are things a trader wants to avoid as much as possible. Trading is a rigorous science (although its skills have artistic components, but that does not hinder its scientific nature), he has strict trading disciplines to abide by, that is, he must abide by the law of large numbers at all times, and must be aware of the market at all times. Remain in awe instead of praying to God to bless you with good fortune. In trading, the market is God, and you must keep up with the market at all times rather than against it.

The focus of the foreign exchange market is to talk about transactions

Trading Paradox: How can a small capital account make big money?

山城老刁民

Everyone is saying that if you want to trade for a living, you have to have a certain amount of money in your trading account. If you want to get a certain profit return every month, then this pressure to make a profit will greatly interfere with your decision-making ability. Even so, I think there are still many ways to achieve a good profit every month. method. One of those ways is wise and aggressive money management. Few people can explain this clearly. If you can, then I can only say that you are really researching and exploring, especially in mathematics and statistics. A method for rapid growth of small accounts. In addition, if you are good at Excel or Mathlab, it will be even better, it will help you a lot. Life cannot be smooth sailing. In the financial market, returns and risks are directly proportional. Just like when you trade, it is impossible for a small account to make a lot of money under conservative risk management principles. Of course, nothing is impossible. You only need to grasp a few key strategic elements. This key element is your risk-benefit ratio and winning rate. When you figure this out, you can develop a risk management model to improve your trading results. In the following, I will give you an example of how to formulate a risk management model under the assumption of a trading strategy: Assuming that our risk-return ratio (RRR) is 1:1.2 (that is, the average loss per order for loss orders is 1 unit, but the average profit for each order is 1.2 units), and the winning rate is 60% (that is, the number of profitable orders accounts for 60% of all orders) , the number of loss orders accounts for 40%), in this case, a large amount of wealth will appear in your account in a short time. If we make 10 orders per week on average, and 6 of them are profitable, then the weekly profit is 6*1.2=7.2 units. At the same time, 4 orders are loss-making, and the weekly loss is 4*1=4 units. It can be concluded that the weekly net profit is 3.2 units, so the monthly net profit is 3.2*4=12.8 units. If 1 unit represents 1% of your account funds, then your monthly net profit margin is 12.8%, if your initial funds are 10,000 US dollars, if you grow at this rate, your account funds will quickly become A considerable amount of wealth is enough to allow you to live a life of financial freedom. However, most of us can't afford $10,000 and don't know how to use that money to achieve financial freedom. For most of us, $10,000 is a large amount of money. This may be our life-saving savings deposit. Would it be too risky to use this money to trade? Should we try to invest only 200 US dollars, because this is within the risk tolerance range of most people, and then use aggressive fund management strategies to increase the account funds to 10,000 US dollars, and then strengthen risk management, and then establish a Stable income strategy? There's no reason not to, unless you really have $10,000 to spare and you're a really good trader. The higher your win rate, the more aggressive your money management strategy can be. No matter which strategy you use to trade, I oppose setting the risk-reward ratio to 1:1, because it is very simple, your average profit per order must be greater than the average loss per order, otherwise, you will never make money. Now, you have to use some software (such as Edgewonk) to predict your future trading performance, you will see the changes in your account funds curve, and then you have to constantly test your trading system, constantly adjust, and finally let your The funding curve is steadily rising. Of course, your capital curve may have a certain retracement, or it may fluctuate continuously, with ups and downs, like waves. You can allocate your portfolio risk depending on how much risk you can take and how well you manage it. Diversification of investment risks is conducive to maximizing investment returns, and every transaction you make should diversify investment risks. However, if you want your small account to grow quickly, you can't afford to stick to a rut. Would you believe me if I told you that you can spend 1/4 of your account funds on every transaction? You won't believe it. In addition, it is very important that when you make the next trade, you must take out 1/4 of your capital to trade again. Suppose our initial capital is 200 US dollars, then we set the risk limit of the first transaction to 50 US dollars, and the result is a loss, losing 50 US dollars, leaving 150 US dollars, but you must also take out 50 US dollars in the next transaction US dollars to trade, so as to make up for your previous losses. It all depends on the winning rate. If we have a continuous loss, we will lose all our funds soon. This involves a mathematical problem. What is the probability of a continuous loss? Has there ever been a similar situation in history? First of all, we need to determine how much leverage the broker provides us with. Some brokers provide leverage as high as 500:1, so we assume that the leverage ratio we trade is 500:1. This means that our own funds of 200 US dollars can leverage 100,000 US dollars of funds (200*500=100,000). In currency trading, we can make a standard lot of EUR/USD orders (1 standard hand EUR/USD The contract value was exactly $100,000). After the leverage is determined, we can determine our maximum position size. Sometimes when our account funds are insufficient, the broker will ask for a margin call. Next, we have to learn to set a stop loss. The less our principal, the smaller the stop loss distance should be. If we set the maximum risk amount (that is, the maximum loss amount) of each transaction to 50 US dollars, then the maximum stop loss distance is 5 points, because the value of one point of exchange rate fluctuation is 10 US dollars. Therefore, the larger the stop loss distance you set, the greater the risk limit of each order, and the greater the threat to your principal. The next thing to look at is win and loss ratios. Assuming that the winning rate is 60%, 6 out of every 10 transactions are profitable (there is historical data to support this point of view, not a number assumed at random). If you lose $50 per order, then lose six times in a row, which is $300, then your account is basically lost, so you have to reduce your risk limit a little. Assuming a risk limit of $20 per trade (10% of the account funds), we have enough risk tolerance for six or seven consecutive losses. Now, I choose to risk $20 per trade, and we won't change our position size until the account doubles. When the account fund grows to $400, you can increase the risk limit of each order to $40, when the account increases to $800, you can set the risk limit to $80, and so on. Or you can take a more conservative approach and withdraw $200 when the account doubles to $400, withdraw $400 when the account doubles to $800, and so on. After using this method to withdraw cash twice, it can play a role in protecting funds, and you will never worry about bankruptcy. Looking back at the beginning, the winning rate was set at 60%, the risk-benefit ratio was set at 1:1.2, 10 transactions per week, and a monthly net profit of 12.8 units, which means that the account would double every Thursday times. Of course, you may also lose money, but once you master the correct method and control the risk, you will naturally make a lot of money. Because your principal is too small, you have to adopt aggressive fund management strategies, but at the same time, the risk will also increase, and you are likely to lose your position. But if you catch a good profit opportunity, then you can make a lot of money. After all, you only lose $200. This will not directly affect your life security for you. You don’t need Risk your life savings. It is very important to understand that this aggressive trading strategy is not a long-term solution, it just helps you more likely to achieve your wealth goals. You should also properly control the risk, don't feel that losing $200 is like losing everything, it's no big deal. Our emotional capital is as important as money, so learn to preserve your emotional capital.

old troublemaker in mountain city

Is a breakout entry the best way?

zekui

I personally think that typical breakthrough trading is rarely the best way to trade, because most price action traders will basically find an earlier price action entry. It is better to enter the market by reversing K, or the strong boundary movement in the trading range market, and usually enter the market earlier than the breakthrough. Strictly speaking, the entry of any of our structures is usually a breakthrough entry, because breaking through the high point or low point of the previous K line is considered a breakthrough, because a single K line represents a price collection within a certain time range. So why are typical breakout entries more effective at certain times? Traders with a little bit of knowledge will realize that when the trend is strong, you can enter the market at any time. If the stop loss is relatively loose, you can basically get a certain amount of profit. Especially in the trending market, every reverse breakthrough is the entry point for traders who follow the trend. For example, in a round of trending market, some traders will not enter the market immediately. They are waiting, such as waiting for a retracement K (because the retracement Withdrawing K is a retracement trend at a low level) homeopathic traders will enter the market when the retracement K is formed, because they think that in a trending market, breakthroughs usually fail (this is why I think breakthrough entry is not the best choose) As shown in Figure 1, we can find that this typical breakthrough entry does not seem to be the best way to enter the market, but as long as it is in a trending market, as long as our stop loss is relatively loose, there will always be room for profit; Most professional traders generally find a suitable entry point in advance, such as the reversal K in the dynamic resistance area during the retracement process. Directional breakthroughs usually fail, and they have reason to believe that they will continue to hit new highs or new lows. However, in the case of a strong trend, it is still profitable to break through and enter the market as long as the stop loss is relatively loose; When the trend is so strong, active traders (in the case of bulls, usually institutions will set limit buy orders at the lows of the previous K-line) expect any reversal attempt to fail. Good entry, they will also enter the market at the breakthrough point, so as not to miss the opportunity of trend development, and ensure that they are in the market under the strong trend; the dynamic support or resistance area at this level is the large-level reversal K institution price limit entry site; So how to ensure that you break through and enter the market without a large retracement? Usually in the case of a strong trend, a breakthrough usually has a small retracement. Sometimes there is usually no retracement, and it is far away from the entry point. If the weaker usually breaks through, there will be a retracement. If it is strong, try not to wait and break through Entry is also a better entry. If it is weak, it is better to wait for a better entry position, such as entry at a high-level retracement K stop loss order, or a reverse K entry in the dynamic resistance zone of this level is better. Figure 2 As shown in Figure 3, there will be a retracement immediately after the breakthrough of 1 and 3. Although there may still be profits as long as the stop loss is loose, you can wait to find a reversal in the dynamic support area and continue to enter the market. After the breakthrough of 2 and 4, immediately stay away from the entry position. It shows that the probability of breakthrough continuation is high, and the possibility of breakthrough and entry without retracement is relatively large; Summary: A breakthrough in the general trend market is not a very good opportunity to enter the market, but after judging the strong and weak trend, entering the market through a strong trend breakthrough will also avoid missing a round of opportunities. As long as the position is well controlled, a weak trend breakthrough may be in a relatively short period of time. In the case of a large stop loss, there is a greater chance of profit, but it may also be the extreme of volatility.

Trend naked K trading

My grid thinking - the comprehensive quality necessary for a trader

the god of wealth has a way

I suddenly thought of this topic last night. I heard Huiyou said that he couldn’t understand Munger’s grid thinking. Don’t tell me that I didn’t understand it when I first started. It seems that it has little to do with trading. , and it was quite difficult to read, and then I slowly recalled that the whole content is actually a thinking mode of thinking about problems from multiple angles. Do you have a question? Why do we have to study language, mathematics, politics, history, geography, and biochemistry when we go to school. . . Could it be that the brains of the leaders and experts of the education department were caught by the door? No, they just want to train our multi-angle thinking, because we often need to think from different angles to solve problems in life. You can call it divergent thinking or grid thinking. Friends who have lived in the countryside since childhood should know bamboo craftsmen. The baskets and baskets they weave are actually a grid-like thing before the finished product. Bamboo strips need to pass through in different directions. After the finished product is finished, you can You will see a small nest in the middle, and all the bamboo strips are unfolded around it. Grid thinking in trading is a thinking about potential, state, and position around the position problem. So how do we have grid thinking in trading? This is a very long process, but people who love trading are worth your life's energy to pursue. Let's start with the first element potential . To learn momentum well, you must be proficient in at least several core currency theories and geopolitics. . . The supply and demand of currency reflect the economic situation of a country. If you don't understand currency theory, you can't understand the reasons behind national policies. Under the tide of globalization, it is impossible for any country to develop independently of other countries. How to get along with its neighbors and the number one power will also affect the development policy and process of the country. The current Sino-US game is a very important one. Good example. China's development will inevitably violate the core interests of the United States' national strategy. As the United States, the imbalance of regional powers is in their interests. Here it is assumed that China and Japan join forces to form an alliance, and the European continental powers form an alliance. . . Do you think the United States can still gain a lot of benefits in the world? The second is state. What is the state? In fact, it is behavior . Behind the transaction is the game of human nature, and the comparison is who knows who better. Here you think how to become an "extreme state master", you can see why the movements of Tai Chi seem to be slow, it is for cultivating the mind. Therefore, traders must be calm, calm, spot the opportunity, and attack quickly. How can this be done? First of all, you have to understand all kinds of mental tricks. Since it is mentioned above that trading is a game, then trading psychology, K-line morphology, game science, and behavioral finance. . . You have to learn both. The third element is bits. What is a bit? In fact, it is a technical form. Many people may say that it is an indicator. Do you know that being proficient in one indicator requires many other indicators to be buried with it. What I mean is that only when you compare the profound meanings of various indicators and truly understand its profound operation connotation, will you know when to use which currency and which indicator, and then you must not only learn various indicators in this process, but also have the ability to Certain digital logic ability, even programming ability. . . . The above content is simply a throw away. In the actual process, we still have a lot to learn, such as Buddhist scriptures, Tao Te Ching, Christian teachings, and philosophy. . . . All in all, we need to build multi-dimensional thinking. Trading is a large and diverse society, and we need to observe it from multiple perspectives. Otherwise, we cannot understand many phenomena. If we do not understand, we will only be ruthlessly killed by our opponents. Finally, keep in mind that grid thinking does not radiate out of order everywhere, but radiates around the core.

Only when wealth gathers can it be dispersed and wealth can be gathered

Talking about the Feasibility of Short-term Stable Earnings with Small Funds and Heavy Positions - My Short-term Streaming Trading Mode

山城老刁民

Let's not talk about gossip, let's get straight to the point, how to achieve short-term stable and huge profits in foreign exchange trading? I am currently operating in this way, for reference only, novices should not imitate . 1. The advantages of short-term heavy positions with small foreign exchange funds Let’s first talk about the advantages of the short-term heavy position mode. First, we are not afraid of systemic risks such as black swans and platforms not paying out. If you can make a profit of 5 to 10 times a week, you can start with a small amount of money, 100 US dollars or 200 US dollars, and withdraw 5 to 10 times a week, repeat every week, even if you encounter a black swan one day, or the platform Running, because the cost is very small, and you have to withdraw money in the early stage, your risk is very small. Compared with the large funds of tens of thousands of dollars, you have to worry about the tricky running of the platform every day. swans and such. Of course, if you have millions or tens of millions, it doesn't matter. I only target ordinary foreign exchange enthusiasts. Second, fast in and fast out of short-term heavy positions, short positions, no overnight, no torture. In the past, I took thousands of dollars to get trend orders, sometimes I took a few hours of orders, and I kept staring at my phone when I went out. Sometimes I couldn’t sleep well at night, and I rarely suffered. This is also the character, you can try my model. Third, the entry barrier is low, and pure dicks can also practice it, not afraid of lack of money, but fear of lack of ability. Because of high multiples, small investment, and large returns, if you feel that your personality is suitable for this model, you can start with a small amount of money and train repeatedly, and you will not pay too much tuition with a small amount of money. It is not recommended for novices to deposit a large amount of money to learn, and sooner or later they will lose their positions. Of course, if you have several million dollars, if you deposit 10,000 dollars, it is considered a small amount of money. Once this model is practiced, you can start with $100, whether you have no capital or no technology. Therefore, for those who fail in various modes and lose a lot of money, you might as well start training with $100 or even $50. If it is not suitable for you, there is not much loss. If you train well, even if your garage loses money Yes, it is also possible to earn back in a relatively short period of time. 2. What kind of traders are suitable for short-term foreign exchange small capital short-term trading mode Let’s talk about what kind of person this model is probably suitable for. First, it is best to have been in contact with foreign exchange for two or three years. You are very familiar with foreign exchange and have a certain foundation, but you are still in a state of loss but still insist on being unable to extricate yourself. If you have already made stable profits, you can ignore it. If you are a pure novice, you will lose money when you place an order, and you can only blow up a heavy position. As many as there are blowouts, novices are cautious. Second, impatient people. It is the kind mentioned above, if you hold a position for a long time and stay overnight, you will feel very tormented inside, you can try it. Third, act decisively. When you see an opportunity, you will do it right away, and if you see something wrong, you will run away immediately. If you are always entangled there, you can only be ravaged by the market, and sooner or later your position will be liquidated. 3. Conditions for the sustainability of the foreign exchange small capital short-term heavy position model Next, let’s talk about the long-term feasibility of ultra-short heavy positions. This may test everyone's comprehensive ability, and trading technology alone may not be enough. To put it simply, the first is the fund management system, the second is the technical system, and the third is the psychological adaptation system. These three aspects must cooperate with each other and are indispensable. The three aspects are interdependent, especially the fund management system and the psychological adaptation system. First, let’s talk about the technical system first. People who have been working for two or three years may have read various books and learned various technical analysis, but often they have not formed a system, and they are just scattered technical foundations. If English is good, you can look at several foreign exchange forums abroad. There are many communication systems in them, which are much better than domestic ones. They are simple and effective. Many domestic fools are fooling around. The very simple system is turned into a high-level training. There is really no Good system, what I use can also be dedicated to everyone. However, the technical foundation and technical system are also indispensable. With the technical system, simple technical foundations such as K-line patterns, trend lines, breakthroughs, deviations, and golden sections must also be strengthened. It's like you hold a set of martial arts cheats (technical system), but the internal strength (technical foundation) is too sloppy, and you can't practice it. A technical system with a positive expected value is a necessary condition for long-term profitability. It is best that you can practice ten, dozens, or dozens of consecutive profits. Second, the fund management system and the psychological adaptation system. These two are relatively closely related. 1. In terms of fund management, the reserve fund should be dozens of times the amount of a single deposit. For example, if you only have 2,000 US dollars left, I suggest that you deposit 100 each time. If you deposit too much, you will panic because you will be panicked after a few times of heavy positions and liquidations. The reserve fund should be more than 20-30 times the deposit amount. Of course, if you You have already lost debts, so start at 50 or 100, and start to be stable first. 2. Timely withdrawal of funds. When it reaches 5 to 10 times, the gold must be withdrawn in time, and the gold must be withdrawn in time every Friday night. As the saying goes, if you often walk by the river, you can’t get your shoes wet. No matter how good your condition is, there will always be a downswing period. If you feel that your condition is not good, you have to withdraw money. You also need to withdraw funds on Friday, because the market often changes greatly after the next week, and the thinking of the trader is likely to stay at the market of last week, and there is inertia in thinking. If you make 200 to 2000 and still want to achieve 10,000 to 20,000, then sooner or later your position will be liquidated. Compound interest is relative compound interest. If you want to keep compounding interest every day without paying money for a long time, the astronomical figures are simply ridiculous. Maybe you can rush to 10,000 to 120,000 once or twice, but it is absolutely unsustainable. It is okay to gamble occasionally, but it is not necessary. 3. Gradually upgrade. Some students may make 2000 to 2000 last week, but this week they want to make 400 to 4000, but they end up depositing 400, and panicked after liquidating their positions three times in a row. Don’t be too picky, although you made 200 to 2000 last week, technically in place, but your psychology is still in the emotional stage, and you haven’t adapted to it at all, and you will definitely not be able to hold it if you are eager to upgrade. If you have played Texas Hold'em, you know the law of Texas Hold'em upgrades. Therefore, in order to ensure long-term sustainability, I recommend withdrawing gold 5 times, 10 times, or even more than 15 times, and then upgrade. The specific number of withdrawals depends on personal psychological fitness. 4. Position management. That is, don’t overweight at the beginning of the transaction, and increase the position after a certain profit, which can greatly reduce the probability of liquidation. 4. Matters needing attention in the short-term heavy position flow trading mode of foreign exchange Finally, let me talk about the issues that should be paid attention to in the foreign exchange short-term heavy position flow trading mode. First, there must be a lot of short-term and ultra-short-term training in the early stage. Of course, there must be a corresponding technical system. After a lot of short-term training, a certain sense of the market will be formed. When encountering the corresponding market, we should be conditioned, instead of thinking slowly and entangled, should we enter or run? Second, we must fully understand ourselves. When everyone has a smooth hand, there is also a downswing period. You must evaluate your mental state more accurately. If you are in a downswing period, you must adjust in time, reduce your position, or even withdraw money. Don’t make a lot of money. If you lose money, you must not lose the profits you have earned. It is recommended to exercise more, exercise more, maintain physical and mental health, and maintain a good mental state. At the same time, since it is a small fund, it is recommended to have a mentality like playing a game, upgrade and fight monsters step by step, despise it strategically, and pay attention to it tactically. Third, be patient. Although it is said that you can't stand the suffering of the medium and long-term, you must also be patient in the short-term. For short-term trading, it is not necessary to make a lot of orders. For short-term trading, you must wait patiently. According to your own technical system, wait until there is a high-probability trading opportunity before making a move. I do a few hours at night with one hand, wait for the time period with high probability trading opportunities, and do other things during the day. I am not stupid and obsessed with the computer every day. Fourth, the difference between short-term heavy positions with small funds and large funds. Many people think that short-term short-term heavy positions with small funds are actually meaningless. A full position of 500 US dollars at a time is the same as a position with a light position of 10,000 US dollars. Purely from the numerical ratio, it seems to be the same. Both stop losses at 50 points, and small funds have to Deposit trouble. However, in fact, when you actually trade, it is completely different. Let alone the systematic risk of large funds (such as the platform running away, as mentioned above), the difference between 500 and 10,000 each time is very big. On the one hand, there is a difference in mentality. After 500 liquidation, it is a wake-up call for yourself. Re-deposit means that the mentality will return to zero. If you start from the beginning, you will be cautious, and if you do it directly with 10,000 US dollars, you may not feel it at all if you lose 500. , I feel that I will continue to do it normally, and when I lose a little more, I have already started to panic. On the other hand, you can take a light position at the beginning of 500, and you can increase your position after there is a profit. It can be 1 lot, 1.5 lots, or even more than 2 lots. As long as you can be precise, if you do it right, the profit will be very high In the future, you can gradually increase the amount, and the 3rd and 4th hands will soon be ten times larger, but do you dare to continue to increase your position with 10,000 US dollars? In case something goes wrong, the market is strong, and it is estimated that 10,000 US dollars is not much, but if you start with 500, you are not afraid, and the liquidation is 500. It can be conservative, aggressive, and flexible. 10,000 US dollars is not easy. To increase the position, of course you have several million, and it is another thing to play with 10,000 US dollars. Finally, the mode of heavy positions with small funds is also suitable for poor people to practice from the beginning, not everyone can start with 10,000 US dollars; it is also suitable for beginners to practice, as long as you insist on short-term small funds and heavy positions for a long time, through a lot of short-term practice, you can control the small funds. You will lose a lot of money, and you will definitely gain something after practicing for half a year. It is unrealistic for a novice to do medium and long-term trading as soon as he comes. Novices need a lot of transactions to train them out. However, many people have limited financial ability, so small capital training is very suitable. Novices who deposit too much money will lose money sooner or later.

old troublemaker in mountain city

Double-edged sword - negative interest rate policy

亏损一人扛

Since the European Central Bank implemented negative interest rates, and the Bank of Japan has followed suit to ensure that it does not fall behind, we often hear news about negative interest rates. So what exactly are negative interest rates? For example, if you borrow money from a person, the end result is that he pays you back the interest. We wonder how such a thing is possible, unless the person is out of his mind. But the actual situation is that in the world we live in, there is such a situation. Negative interest rate policy has already existed and emerged, and in Europe and Japan, this problem does not rule out becoming a new normal. Let me tell you a joke, there is a female entrepreneur, a small and micro enterprise, and then she wants to apply for a loan from the bank. One day, the bank will call him and say congratulations, your loan has been approved, and then our bank will give you How much is the interest? 0.0172%, this is definitely very, very cheap for us in China, so the lady was very happy and asked if I follow this interest rate, how much interest will I pay to your bank every month? The bank replied, Miss, you heard it wrong, the interest we give you is -0.0172%, and the bank will give you money every month in the future, not you. When the lady heard it, it was unreliable, it was a phone scam, how could such a good thing happen, the bank became a philanthropist? In fact, in Europe, this phenomenon occurs not only in small companies, but also in large companies. How could this happen? The ECB has now started charging negative interest rates on the excess reserves deposited by commercial banks in the accounts of the ECB (started when the negative interest rates were implemented). In addition to the ECB, there are Denmark, Sweden, and Switzerland. These central banks are also doing the same. That is to say, commercial banks will be fined if they deposit in the central bank. This phenomenon currently only exists between commercial banks and the central bank. However, after the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing, ordinary people’s deposits may also occur. Negative interest rates. That is to say, if I go to the bank to deposit a sum of money, the bank will not only give you no interest, but also fine you the money throughout the year. You may still not understand why the European Central Bank has this negative interest rate? What is the reason and logic of this thing? 1. The European Central Bank imposes negative interest rate penalties on commercial banks (if you deposit money with me, I will fine your money), what is its purpose? If you are forced to lend money , I will punish you if you don’t lend money. Who did you lend money to? Just like the female entrepreneurs in the joke we just talked about, they must release their money anyway, because these enterprises can do R&D and launch projects after receiving loans, which will stimulate the job market and the economy will grow. Europe can get out of the economic recession. This is an important purpose, forcing banks to lend money, and allowing the lending to enter the real economy to promote the vitality of the real economy. 2. What if these commercial banks cannot find suitable lenders in the Eurozone? Then get these euros out, get them to other countries, and outside the euro zone, let me release the money. Why do you want to do this? Because as long as the euro flows to other regions, the euro will depreciate relative to other currencies (because the number of euros on the market increases). If this depreciates, then the entire export competitiveness of the euro zone will be improved. In this case It will also speed up the operation of the economy and increase the vitality of the economy. These are the two most important core logics for implementing the negative interest rate policy. When you think about it, there seems to be no big problem with this logic. It sounds reasonable, but there is a faint feeling that there is a problem with this logic. If this logic is true, it means that printing money can save the economy. We all know this. There has never been such a situation in history. How can printing money make the economy prosperous? If it’s that simple, then everyone can just print money and have fun. Obviously, such logic is actually flawed. So where is the problem? Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan put forward a very interesting example (speech given to the American Foreign Affairs Association in New York, USA in October 2014) to illustrate the negative impact of the negative interest rate policy: there are two farmers, one named Zhang San, One is Li Si. Zhang San is hardworking and brave, and he doesn't spend money randomly, so he gradually accumulated wealth. Li Si enjoys his time in time, the moonlight family, spends money when he has it, and never saves it. As a result, after one year, Zhang San saved 100 catties of grain, but Li Si had nothing on hand. The next year is spring, and now there is a problem. Well, Li Si has no grain seeds because he has already consumed them last year. If Li Si wants to continue planting crops, he needs to ask Zhang San to borrow them. Zhang San In other words, grain can be lent to you, but during the autumn harvest, I will lend you 100 catties of grain, and you will return me 110 catties of grain, which is reasonable and no problem. This is equivalent to 10% interest. At this time, Zhang San also agreed, and Li Si also agreed, and everyone thought it was very good. Although Zhang San lent Li Si the precious grain he saved, he will get more grain (or investment income) during the autumn harvest. As for Li Si, if he can borrow grain seeds from Zhang San, He is also very happy that he can continue to maintain this timely life. This is the natural rate of interest formed in the natural market. But one day the government intervened, and the government said no, we are now going to implement a negative interest rate policy, and this is not allowed, 10% interest is not acceptable, we only allow you to charge -1.0%. Zhang San was furious when he heard it, what? -1.0%? I lent him 100 catties of grain, and he only returned me 99 catties? Only people with water in their heads would do this, but Zhang San was determined not to borrow it. The government will punish you if you don't borrow. Zhang Sanyi heard that he wanted to be punished, what should he do? Just eat all the food that has been saved, and throw away what you can't eat. Anyway, I just don't lend it to Li Si. In the middle of this example, let's look for the logic behind it. What is that 100 catties of grain? It is really saving. When Zhang San lent the 100 catties of grain to Li Si as seeds, Li Si cultivated these seeds. In this process, savings are transformed into capital. It should be noted here that many people confuse capital with money, and money and capital are different. Capital must be used in production activities to expand reproduction and create more wealth. This kind of money is called capital. And the money you deposit in the bank is not called capital. So what is savings? Real savings is not the number of bank accounts we understand now, 10,000 yuan, 20,000 yuan, that is not called real savings, it is called a number. Currency is only a receipt of real wealth (this point was mentioned in yesterday's phenomenon analysis), it is not wealth itself. What is really savings in the example? It is the grain behind it, the real economic resources saved by the entire economy, steel, oil, etc. These are called real savings. It is impossible to increase real savings by printing money. So real savings will not be affected by whether you print more or less money. So through examples, we push forward, what conclusion will we get? When the interest rate is positive, say 10%, the process of converting savings into capital is smooth. We could call it capital formation. But if you adjust the interest rate to -1%, this will force Zhang San to eat up his precious food, waste it, and not turn it into capital. This process shows that the negative interest rate policy not only failed to promote capital formation, but directly destroyed capital itself. This problem has led to the fact that the development of the entire country's economy cannot have stamina, because real savings are gone. If this problem is not clarified, it will be misunderstood that I print money and banknotes to form bank savings, and everyone regards that thing as real social savings, which is not true. There must always be commodities behind the money. If it is nothing, it is just a piece of waste paper. Money is just a receipt for these commodities. It is useless to print countless banknotes if the commodities behind it do not increase. So we see that when a country adopts a negative interest rate policy, it will have a destructive effect on the social and economic development in the long run, because it disintegrates and destroys capital instead of creating and forming capital. So on the surface, we see that the negative interest rate policy of the European Central Bank is reasonable, but in fact, it is simply impossible after scrutiny. Because real savings are online, a society can only create more value if it has real savings, these real economic resources, when you lend these economic resources to others or form capital, which is called investment. In addition, if these real resources are used for exchange, this is called consumption. If the foundation of real savings is destroyed, there will be no resources for investment and consumption. Therefore, we can draw the final conclusion that under the negative interest rate policy, the economy may be stimulated in a short period of time, but once it operates for a long time, it will inevitably destroy the economy. That is to say, it is impossible for the European Central Bank to implement a negative interest rate policy all the time or to implement a negative interest rate policy in stages, because they are clear about this double-edged sword. This is Greenspan's comment after summarizing the six-year quantitative easing policy in the United States. QE, that is, the quantitative easing policy in the United States, has brought asset inflation. What does that mean? That is, stocks have risen, real estate has risen, and assets have inflated. But the industry has not received much impact. According to his words, real needs die in the water.

One person talks about things

The essence of controlling the trading mentality lies in these three points

亏损一人扛

Trading, the game of money. The "other world" war between people. In addition to the contest of wisdom and skills, the fight is calm and calm, and the competition is calm and calm. In this war of beating numbers, a calm and tenacious mentality will allow you to better coordinate the overall situation. In the transaction, there are no more than three situations: profit, loss, and position. We often say that the mentality is out of balance, where is the imbalance? Why is it out of balance? In fact, the reasons can be found in these three situations. 1. Profit I believe that everyone has a time when they are killing all directions, and when their condition improves, even they are afraid of themselves. Some people are intoxicated by this feeling, and they will win when they encounter a battle. They think that they are trading elites and the chosen ones, and no one is their own enemy. Suddenly, he was beaten up by the market inexplicably, and it dawned on him that he was not strong enough, but just stood in the wind and flew up. Neither great joy nor great sorrow is suitable for trading. The great joy in it refers to self-expansion under continuous profit. Therefore, in the case of continuous profitability, it is also necessary to be alert to the imbalance of mentality. Profit and loss is like a roller coaster ride, with peaks and valleys, which means that whether the present is good or bad, it is only temporary. >> Empty cup mentality Think of yourself as an empty cup, reorganize your cognition and abilities at any time, and empty outdated ones, instead of being complacent. Treat yourself "as a human being". No one is perfect, and everyone has their own flaws and relative weaknesses. You do have a winning streak, but you still don't have anything special. In the trading market, there are many people who make profits. The more expert you are, the more humble you are. Because they know that if they want to make long-term sustainable profits in the uncertain trading market, they need to persevere in absorbing the current, other people's, correct, and excellent things. And these things need to be tempered in the ups and downs of the market trend, ups and downs, before they can be obtained. They know that the so-called profit-making process is a process of taking a few steps forward and then a few steps back, and it is a long-term accumulation process. Only when the water in the glass is emptied can new water be added. The empty cup mentality is a kind of never-satisfied self-challenge; it is the mentality of forgetting success and knowing oneself. 2. Loss There are tens of thousands of ways to succeed, but the reasons for failure are always the same. Heavy positions, frequent transactions, anti-orders, etc., all the bad trading habits that we are familiar with and can be called, will always be touched by someone, and they will continue to follow. This has also led to an imbalance in the mentality of many traders. Such as the fear of trading brought about by continuous losses, and the market countermeasures after losses, etc., it is simply not too much. A variety of reasons lead to a variety of psychological imbalances. In general, whether it is a loss within the trading plan or an unexpected loss outside the trading plan. As long as it is a continuous or serious loss, it will affect the mentality. Especially unplanned losses, which often cause tons of critical damage to the mentality. At this time, it is actually necessary to stop trading and adjust your mentality. But how to adjust and how long it takes to adjust, this varies from person to person, and there are various methods. As far as I'm concerned, when Trump took office in November 2016, the deal was smooth sailing. By December, Trump's influence on the financial market had been revealed. Coupled with the Fed's decision, the entire December was a mess. But at the time, I didn't notice that my mentality was out of balance. The loss lasted until mid-January, and it was only when I was afraid of placing an order that I realized it. Later, the transaction was stopped for more than 2 months, and the exchange was slowed down. It can be described as time-consuming and labor-intensive. In fact, instead of waiting until the mentality is completely out of balance to adjust, it is better to manage the mentality from the beginning of each transaction. Although this cannot completely avoid the above-mentioned situation, it can greatly delay the occurrence of the above-mentioned phenomenon. >> Return to zero mentality Zero mentality has this effect. Perhaps you may not have heard of this term. But you may have heard the phrase "don't be influenced by the last transaction", which is really about the zero mentality. Forget all the transactions completed in the past, and cut the negative impact of losses on yourself; not only to zero the losses within the day, but also to zero the big pits dug for a long time. If you keep thinking about the large losses accumulated over a long period of time, it will be difficult to trade with peace of mind. Once you have the concept of cost and don't return it to zero in time, it's like dancing in shackles. How can you move forward and retreat freely? On the contrary, if you return to zero loss and focus on the implementation of correct behavior, you may gain something unconsciously. In fact, each transaction exists independently (except for the layout of the medium and long-term), and is randomly distributed inside and outside the probability brought by large numbers. We don't need to regret and underestimate ourselves because of losses. There will inevitably be successes and failures, prosperity and adversity in transactions. In times of adversity, of course you will lose a lot, but only when you have the courage to "return to zero" when you lose, can you face yourself again, start from scratch, and actively struggle. As for the method of zeroing, it also varies from person to person. There are those who stabilize the funds at a certain scale, and then withdraw the money when they make money; there are also those who divide the account into several parts, and each transaction is clean and there is no loss. There are many ways to do it, just find what works for you. 3. Holding positions How many people, after making orders with trepidation, make a profit when they see a small profit, and die when they lose money? Is it very familiar? That's right, profits can't be held, and losses can't be carried. That's it. They have been worried about whether the increase has reached the previously judged target level. Once they encounter a retracement, they just want to make a profit as soon as possible, and they will be safe. It can be said that everyone has experienced this situation, and there are various solutions. In fact, there is no need to talk about it in detail, after all, it is a commonplace problem. To put it simply, the "target position plan" should be regarded as a good method. According to your own trading experience and habits, formulate an appropriate target position (both rising and falling), and do not make changes due to price fluctuations. It is commonly known as hanging stop profit and stop loss. Some people will say, I understand the truth, but I can't do it. That's easier, turn off the computer and unplug the network cable. Just kidding. It's not that it can't be done, but that there is no way. A person who is afraid of heights can also overcome the fear of heights through training. 1. Control the position within the range that you can bear . This is the first step. You have to bring people who are afraid of heights. First, get familiar with the height of the 3-story building, and then slowly increase the height. When the position is relatively small , we can hold positions better, because even if the loss is stopped, I can bear it, which is a little lower. 2. Consciously let yourself leave the market . When the order is entered, the stop profit and stop loss are set, and leave for a while. Don’t always stare at the fluctuations of the market at a few points. For most people, staring at the market is only harmful but not beneficial , When you stare at the market, there are ten thousand ants in your heart, stinging your emotions and thoughts, making you make wrong choices. 3. Every time when you hold a position for too long, the profit has not come out, and after the final stop loss, you must encourage yourself, my method is not wrong, my method is correct, but this market just goes out like this, this is unavoidable Yes, next time my persistence will double my earnings. This is very, very important. If you keep doubting your own methods, you will definitely not persist. If you don’t persist, you will make frequent mistakes. A good attitude requires the cooperation of many factors. The most fundamental thing is that the concept is not in place, the technology is not mature enough, and the way of trading is not enough. A good attitude comes from good trading techniques and corresponding trading concepts, and good trading comes from solid basic skills. . But at the same time, the mentality maintained by trading technology is like duckweed, and no one can guarantee that the transaction will always be smooth. Therefore, learning to control your mind is particularly important.

One person talks about things

Daily short-term speculation, when will you be able to make a stable profit?

jiaoyi golden eagle

Most traders who just entered the gold foreign exchange market are doing short-term intraday trading. On the one hand, the gold foreign exchange market fluctuates greatly, and the profit and loss are also very large, which can easily affect the nerves of traders, so they are unwilling to hold positions for a long time. Try to make a quick decision; on the other hand, because of the high volatility, the risk is also very high. In order to avoid risks, I dare not hold positions overnight. Therefore, they enjoy short-term intraday speculation every day, but after a period of time, they always make less money and lose more, with scars. Although it is possible to make stable profits by doing short-term intraday trading, it is very, very difficult, which means that the success rate is very low. Why is it said that the success rate of short-term intraday trading to achieve stable profits is very low? Let's first look at the composition of intraday short-term traders, which are basically divided into two groups, one part is data traders, and the other part is technical traders. For data traders, a certain amount of economic knowledge is required, but as an individual trader, what you have to think about is, is the ability of individuals to analyze data better than institutions? Organizations have far more resources and advantages than individuals, so how can they compete with them? Moreover, the trading departments of many institutions are set up directly next to the exchange, and they have high-speed computers. They will always take advantage of the transaction speed. The price is always at a disadvantage, and most of them can only wait to be cut. As for technical traders, some of them have not even formed a complete trading system, let alone be able to make stable profits. Let's focus on why it is difficult for day traders who already have a trading system to succeed. One reason for this is a lack of understanding of market trend cycles . The originator of technical analysis, Dow Theory, clearly points out that the larger the period, the more obvious, stable and important the trend fluctuation is, while the smaller the period, the less obvious, unstable and less important the trend fluctuation is , especially "Intraday Clutter". The trend of the big cycle is like the law of the tide. We can conclude the law of the tide through observation, even when the tide rises and when the tide ebbs; while the trend of the small cycle is like a wave, which is irrelevant and difficult to judge. Just imagine, who can How to judge the height of each wave? And the smaller the cycle, the easier it is to be manipulated. We all know that prices are driven by funds. As long as the funds are large enough, they can affect the short-term fluctuations of the market. For individual traders, institutions are "swordsmen". The more they participate in small cycles, the easier it is to become "fish". Another reason is that there is insufficient understanding of the ratio of winning percentage to profit and loss . We all know that the key to profitability lies in the ratio of winning percentage to profit and loss. And too many people are pursuing the winning rate, thinking that the higher the winning rate is, the higher the profitability will be, and ignoring the importance of the profit-loss ratio, which is precisely to chase the end. Here is a slightly simpler profit formula: Profit = win rate × profit ratio - loss rate × loss ratio = winning rate × profit ratio - (1- winning rate) × loss ratio = Winning ratio × (Profit ratio + Loss ratio) - Loss ratio Substituting the winning rate and the profit-loss ratio will find that the winning rate has a relatively small effect, and the profit-loss ratio is the key to truly increasing profits. 80% winning rate is already very high, if the profit-loss ratio is 1:1, the profit expectation is 0.6, and if the profit-loss ratio is 1:2, the profit expectation is only 0.4, and if the profit-loss ratio is 1:3, the profit expectation is only 0.2, after deducting fees, basically no money can be made. But if the winning rate is 40%, the profit-loss ratio is 3:1, the profit expectation is 0.6, the profit-loss ratio is 4:1, it is 1, and if the profit-loss ratio is 5:1, it is 1.4. Although this formula is relatively simple, it also shows that the key to stable profits is the profit-loss ratio, not the winning rate. In trend trading with a relatively large cycle, the profit-loss ratio is often 8:1, 10:1 is normal. Of course, it would be best if you can have a high winning rate and a high profit-loss ratio at the same time, but it is very, very difficult. Because there are often contradictions between them, if you want to increase the winning rate, you must reduce the profit-loss ratio; and if you want to increase the profit-loss ratio, you must reduce the winning rate. However, it is very difficult to achieve a high profit-loss ratio in short-term intraday trading, and can only pursue a high winning rate and a low profit-loss ratio. Of course, it is not to say that the model with high winning rate and low profit-loss ratio cannot make stable profits, but it is more difficult to achieve stable profits than the model with low winning rate and high profit-loss ratio. So, if you want to fish, why not go where the fish are plentiful? And must choose to fish in places with few fish ? Now that we realize this, how do we transition from intraday short-term trading to mid- and long-term trading ? First, correct the cognitive bias towards market risk. 1. Correct the misunderstanding of risk. Many people think that doing short-term within the day and not holding positions overnight is to avoid risks. In fact, this is a deviation in the understanding of market risks. Once you trade, that is, enter the market, risks will follow and cannot be avoided. If you want to truly avoid risks, you can only do not trade. If you do not trade, you have no risk. So what you have to do is to be willing to take risks, not to avoid risks . In other words, before you enter the market, you must be very clear about how much risk you are taking, and how much profit you are willing to take this risk to earn. 2. Correct the low awareness of risk control. Many people enter the market without knowing how much risk they have taken. If the market outlook is in line with their trading direction, they will start to make profits. It seems that there is no risk; only when the market outlook does not meet expectations. There will be de facto risks, and after this situation occurs, there are no specific measures to reduce the risks, and when it is really impossible to continue to bear the pressure, they will reluctantly cut their flesh and leave the market. This is actually a low awareness of risk control. The correct way is, before you trade, you have to estimate how much risk you are willing to take, and set a stop loss point at this risk level. Once you reach this stop loss point, you must exit the market and strictly control the risk . 3. Correct the lack of understanding of position risk. Another reason why many people dare not hold positions overnight is that if the positions are too heavy, the risk is great. If your position is lighter, you know how much you will lose even if you stop the loss, and you are willing to bear it, you can sleep peacefully and hold your position easily. Therefore, if the position is well controlled, the risk will be greatly reduced. Secondly, try to choose a larger cycle transaction. It has already been explained that a larger cycle is more stable, and stability means safer. For us individual retail traders, it will be more beneficial for us to consciously choose a larger cycle for trading. So what cycle is better? This is relative and varies from person to person, but try to exclude intraday trading, 1H, 4H, and daily lines are fine. Weekly and monthly lines are not suitable for margin trading accounts, because too much overnight interest will also reduce capital. Use efficiency. Personally, I prefer 4H and daily cycle, you can refer to it. At the beginning, you may often lose control of your itchy hands and participate in small-cycle trading. This requires you to formulate corresponding rules and always remind yourself what your goal is. After a period of training, it will be much better. Finally, try to improve the profit-loss ratio and winning rate. You may have doubts, didn't you say that you want to increase the winning rate and profit-loss ratio at the same time, will there be conflicts? Yes, it's just that we need to increase the profit-loss ratio first, and then find ways to increase the winning rate as much as possible. That is to say, in the case of a high profit-loss ratio, try to exclude some trading opportunities with a low winning rate, which will relatively increase the winning rate. This will reduce the frequency of entry, which requires more patience and requires you to temper it slowly. Looking at those traders who have achieved outstanding achievements, most of them are trend traders, and trend trading is mainly in the medium and long term. Therefore, if you want to achieve stable profits earlier, you should try to choose to trade with the trend Those who work together!

Jiaoyi Golden Eagle Exchange Circle

What Are The Requirements of Scalper Traders ?

Chandan Gupta

A Scalper Trader must recognize the daily and hourly support and resistance levels. Scalpers must recognize chart patterns, in both trending and range-bound markets. A Scalper trader must be patient and disciplined. Patience and discipline will help the trader entering the market at the wrong times and turning small losses into bigger losses. Scalpers must control their own emotions while entering and exiting trades. A Scalper trader must have quick reflexes to react when setups are occurring and he must be skilled at quickly executing the transaction. Scalpers should be able to stay focused on its graphs for several hours at a time, paying undivided attention to the scalping setups. A Scalper trader should gain profits from the market by diminishing its risk as much as possible. A Scalper Trader must be aware of the balance between risk and reward.

SCALPING SECRETS

Technical Analysis VS Fundamental Analysis, Which Is Better?

fong zi cheng

The debate between technical analysis and fundamental analysis has been ongoing in the world of investing and trading. Each approach has its strengths and weaknesses, and the effectiveness of one over the other can depend on various factors, including the market conditions, investment horizon, and the preferences of the investor or trader. Let's explore the key characteristics of both: Technical Analysis: Focuses on historical price and volume patterns, uses charts and indicators, and is often associated with short-term trading. It emphasizes market psychology. Fundamental Analysis: Examines a security's intrinsic value by analyzing financial statements, economic indicators, and industry trends. It's associated with a long-term perspective and uses valuation metrics. Which is Better? It depends on factors like investment horizon, market conditions, and personal preferences. Many successful investors use a combination of both approaches.

Trading Forex With Zi Cheng

How To Determine What Type Of Forex Trader Are You?

fong zi cheng

Determining your Forex trading style involves assessing your time commitment, risk tolerance, goals, and market knowledge. Here's a concise guide: 1) Know Trading Styles: -Day Trader: Intraday trades. -Swing Trader: Short to medium-term positions. -Position Trader: Long-term positions. -Scalper: Quick, small-profit trades. 2) Evaluate Yourself: -Assess time availability. -Determine risk tolerance. -Clarify financial goals. 3) Review Past Trades: -Analyze successful and unsuccessful trades. -Identify preferred timeframes and market conditions. 4) Experiment and Adapt: -Use demo accounts to try different strategies. -Adapt as you gain experience and market understanding. 5) Seek Guidance: -Consult experienced traders or advisors. 6) Take Personality Tests: -Some platforms offer tests for trading inclinations. 7) Stay Open to Evolution: -Be willing to adapt your trading style over time. Regular self-assessment and a flexible approach contribute to successful Forex trading.

Trading Forex With Zi Cheng

Does 100% Winning Rate Strategy Exist In The Forex Market?

fong zi cheng

It's important to note that there is no strategy in the financial markets, including the forex market, that can guarantee a 100% winning rate. The forex market is complex, influenced by numerous factors, and involves a high degree of uncertainty. Here are some reasons why achieving a 100% winning rate is not feasible: 1) Market Uncertainty: The forex market is influenced by a wide range of economic, political, and social factors. Changes in market sentiment, unexpected news events, and other unpredictable factors can lead to price movements that are difficult to anticipate. 2) Risk Management: No matter how sophisticated a trading strategy is, there is always an element of risk in trading. It's impossible to eliminate risk entirely, and even the most successful traders experience losses from time to time. Successful trading involves developing a well-thought-out strategy, implementing risk management practices, and staying disciplined. Traders should also be prepared to adapt to changing market conditions. While it's not possible to have a 100% winning rate, skilled traders aim for consistency and long-term profitability rather than perfection in every trade. It's essential to thoroughly backtest and forward-test any trading strategy and be realistic about its expected performance in different market conditions.

Trading Forex With Zi Cheng

The Three Elements of Wave Theory: Shape, Ratio, and Time

chinese studious bastard

Flowing water theory, which believes that the fluidity of waves can form a coherent whole, is the key to wave theory. Therefore, the wave theory is more suitable for collective forces such as stock indexes, gold, and foreign exchange to dominate, rather than a few market makers or varieties controlled by the main force. Waves are mainly composed of driving waves and correction waves superimposed on each other. Driving waves are divided into: ① Leading oblique triangle (wedge) wave 1 or wave A, 5-3-5-3-5 ② Ending oblique triangle (wedge), five waves or C waves, 3-3-3-3 Corrective waves are mainly divided into two types: simple and multiple. Sawtooth is divided into: single sawtooth, double sawtooth, triple sawtooth. The sawtooth adjustment space is larger and the range is larger. The triangle adjustment is divided into: the rising horizontal line is above, and the falling horizontal line is below. (AUDUSD, 30 minutes, ascending horizontal line is on top) (USDCAD, 30 minutes, descending horizontal line below) Three principles of shape: the retracement of the second wave does not exceed the starting point of the first wave, the third wave is never the shortest wave, and the retracement of the fourth wave does not cross the top of the first wave. Retracement ratio: wave 4 retraces to 0.382 or 50% of wave 3, wave 2 retraces to 0.618 of wave 1. Range trading, range adjustment, retracement is 1. Multiple: 3 waves = 1 wave*1.618*2=3.236 . The interval retraces to the top and low, and the trend retraces the golden section. Draw the Fibonacci sequence in the direction of the trend. Waves 1, 3, 5, the extended wave and the remaining waves form a golden ratio, and the proportion of the extended wave is 0.618. The relationship between time and proportion is equivalent. The triangles are mostly in the four waves and B waves, and the second and fourth waves appear alternately. In the wave theory, the greatest significance of five waves lies in the "continuation" of the information it conveys, and the three waves mean "termination". The essence of the wave theory: wherever the main line goes, after the adjustment is over, it will go there (where it comes and goes, trade with the trend, trade with the trend). Candle charts are trading signals and cannot be used as a strategy.

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