TradingLive - Financial Education via Community Live Streams

In trading, how to choose the time period?

该账号已注销

There are two dimensions on the trading chart: one is the price and the other is the time period. All people are more sensitive to price, ignoring the choice of time period. There are also many friends who are asking me how to choose the time period for trading. In this article, we will talk about topics related to time periods in trading. The article is relatively long, it is recommended to bookmark and read, and if you feel that you have gained something, you can like it and support it. 1. What is a time period? On the MT4 chart, the time period spans from the monthly line period to the one-minute period; the weekly line, daily line, hourly line, etc. all belong to the time period of the transaction. Different time periods mean different stop loss positions, profit targets, different positions, different holding times, etc. in transactions, which are actually completely different transactions. There are 13 cycle options on the straight flush in the figure below, and 9 cycle options on the MT4 trading software. 2. Why should a time period be chosen? Clarify the trading ideas and clear the direction of the trend. The market is chaotic and the trend is random. A clear cycle means a clear target. I remember a friend asked me a question: 4-hour bearish, 1-hour bullish, how to solve this situation? How to trade? This is the standard cycle selection problem, and solving the cycle problem is the first step to profitability. The picture below is the arrangement of 5 time periods on a friend's trading software, which looks messy. 3. How to choose the time period? First: the trader's time and schedule. Full-time traders and part-time traders will have completely different options. Small cycle trading frequency is high, full-time traders have enough time to keep an eye on the market, can spend more time and energy in trading, and have the possibility of using small cycle trading. For example, a 15-minute trading cycle, or even a 5-minute trading cycle is an optional cycle for full-time trading; part-time traders do not have the possibility of trading a small trading cycle from the perspective of time and energy invested in trading, at least more than 1 hour Time cycle trading, because such a trading cycle will not involve too much energy in trading, and will not affect the normal work and life of part-time traders. Just imagine, thinking about the market when you go to work, where is the trend? Is the account profitable or losing? Is it time to enter? Either because of work misses and wrong transactions, or because transactions affect normal work, work and transactions cannot be done well. While full-time traders can now have small trading cycles or large trading cycles, or even take all sizes, but part-time traders can only engage in large-cycle transactions. Second: the difference in trading ability Novices should not trade frequently, so do not choose a trading cycle that is too small. Frequent trading with heavy positions is the two main reasons why many novice traders lose money. A small cycle means a high frequency, and beginners have poor self-control. You must know that the candlestick chart is magical. Changes in prices and changes in the profit and loss in the account will cause novice traders to change their mentality. If the mind is confused, the transaction will be chaotic, and losses will follow. For novice traders, the minimum trading period should be a period of more than one hour. Of course, it does not mean that a larger cycle is better; a large cycle, the frequency of transactions is too low, and the cycle of holding positions is too long; for novices in trading, patience is the biggest test , whether it is opening or holding positions. In the first few years when I just started trading, I didn’t have the concept of cycle at all. I was not good at trading, but I was struggling and entangled in small cycles. The deepest memory is that I stopped losses more than 40 times a day. Looking back now, if I choose a larger cycle, I definitely won’t There are so frequent stops and losses. Third: choose a fixed time period to trade. A 4-hour callback is a 1-hour trend, and a 1-hour rising wave is a 15-minute 5-wave structure. From the latitude of technical analysis, different cycles mean different directions and trends. Therefore, we must choose a fixed trading cycle for technical trading. 4 hours is up, 1 hour may be down. At the same time, once the two weekly directions "fight", should I go short or long? 4. Choose single-cycle or multi-cycle? I am a double-cycle trader myself, but I can say responsibly that single-cycle and multi-cycle are not fundamental to determining the profitability of trading. Single-cycle or multi-cycle depends entirely on our trading habits, but there are a few points to pay attention to. First: don't choose too many cycles. A friend told me: His trading needs to resonate in 5 cycles of daily line, 4 hours, 4 hours, etc. to enter the market, but the effect is not ideal. Too many cycles of resonance can not increase the success rate, the more cycles the higher the success rate? Just imagine if we have been resonating for 1 minute from the annual line, can we guarantee the success rate? false proposition. 2-3 cycle trading, look at the big and small, it is reasonable and necessary to properly filter the trading signals with cycle resonance. Second: Index filtering needs to be added for a single cycle. The single-cycle trading system is usually filtered by other technical indicators at this level, otherwise the single-cycle trading system is too rough, difficult to execute, and requires high execution capabilities for traders. For example, in the turtle trading rules, the single-cycle trend trading that breaks through the 20-day high and low points; in the volatile market, the trading signals will not be screened and there will be continuous stop losses. fail. 5. How do I use Multicycle? (dry goods) First: cycle span. For the 1-hour trend, choose a 5-minute cycle to enter the market, and the ratio of the size cycle: 1:12 For the 4-hour trend, choose a 15-minute cycle to enter the market, and the ratio of the size cycle: 1:16 The 15-minute trend of futures trading chooses a 1-minute period to enter the market, the ratio of the size of the period: 1:15 The above is the cycle span in my actual combat. What if you choose a 1-minute period to enter the market for a 1-hour trend? (1) The trading frequency of 1 minute is too high, there are too many trading signals, the fault tolerance of trading signals is poor, and the transaction execution is too difficult. (2) The pace of keeping an eye on the market for 1 minute is too high, and human errors are prone to occur in a market that operates 24 hours a day. Second: transaction flow chart. The picture below is a screenshot of the EUR/USD transaction at a certain time. The left side of the chart in the figure below is the 1-hour K-line, and the right side is the 5-minute K-line; the trend is confirmed in 1 hour, and the entry position is selected in 5 minutes. Summarize The above are the precautions for the selection of trading cycles and my own choice of trading cycles for your reference. Any questions can be discussed in the comment area

Forex to make money

Technical Analysis VS Fundamental Analysis, Which Is Better?

fong zi cheng

The debate between technical analysis and fundamental analysis has been ongoing in the world of investing and trading. Each approach has its strengths and weaknesses, and the effectiveness of one over the other can depend on various factors, including the market conditions, investment horizon, and the preferences of the investor or trader. Let's explore the key characteristics of both: Technical Analysis: Focuses on historical price and volume patterns, uses charts and indicators, and is often associated with short-term trading. It emphasizes market psychology. Fundamental Analysis: Examines a security's intrinsic value by analyzing financial statements, economic indicators, and industry trends. It's associated with a long-term perspective and uses valuation metrics. Which is Better? It depends on factors like investment horizon, market conditions, and personal preferences. Many successful investors use a combination of both approaches.

Trading Forex With Zi Cheng

The Historical Mission of Digital Currency

起止点

I have actually discussed digital currency with others many times. Until now, I still stick to my opinion. Digital currency is a technological revolution, and the object of its revolution is not currency, but currency symbols. Birth of the modern bank Paper money is not currency, but a currency symbol. Originally, paper money was simply a deposit of money stored in a vault. In the market, everyone gradually replaced the physical transaction currency with the deposit of the transaction currency. On the other hand, since everyone trades currency deposits, fewer and fewer people come to withdraw currency, and a large amount of currency is idle in the vault. The treasury owner secretly lends out the currency and earns a lot of interest. It was a blatant theft that turned out to be the bedrock of finance today. Later, after years of struggle, society generally approved this behavior. The treasury owner only needs to keep one-tenth or even less of the currency in the warehouse, and other currencies can be used for lending. This is called the fractional reserve system . This is of the same nature as Jack Ma's Alipay misappropriating users' funds. Depositors are deprived of ownership of their currency and are only compensated with a small amount of interest on their savings. This is how the modern bank was born. At this time, the deposit slips in the vault became banknotes. Since the birth of the bank, every pore has been full of sin and greed. It is the product of intrigue and stupid fornication, the origin of all human inequality for nearly 500 years. If, considering all banks in the world as a whole, the fractional reserve ratio is 10, then the banking system can create 10 times as much paper money as currency. No famous tyrant in history has ever had the ability to create money out of thin air, while banks enjoy the terrifying alchemy of wealth all to themselves. However, this is a helpless fait accompli. In the era of papermaking, paper is the carrier of human information transmission, and currency symbols are also a kind of information. Human society has no choice but to accept paper money. Now, times have changed, and the technology used by humans to transmit information has evolved from papermaking to digital transmission. And this technological advancement will sooner or later set off a revolution in the currency field. And the modern bank, which has been parasitic in human society for hundreds of years, will keep preventing the new currency king from ascending the throne. Types of digital currencies The current digital currency is divided into two types, pseudo-digital currency and digital currency. How to judge? All digital currencies that are based on the banking system and attached to bank accounts are all pseudo-digital currencies, which are essentially electronic banknotes. Kicking the banking system away and operating completely independently of the banking system is called a true digital currency. Of course, as a currency symbol, it must be logically self-consistent in the three aspects of bookkeeping, counting, and delivery. If it can't be done, then no matter how advanced the technology used in this currency is, there is no possibility of replacing banknotes at all. There is only one digital currency that can achieve these three points-gold standard digital currency. system of banknotes First, let's take a look at how paper money is logically self-consistent. Bookkeeping: banknotes are kept in bank accounts, and are cleared layer by layer through sub-branches, branches, and head offices. This system is very perfect. Counting: Banknotes are counted by both accounts and cash. When paper currency is used as an entity, it is cash in hand. When paper currency is used as a virtual symbol, it is a number on the account. Release: How to release the currency created by the central bank into the market? through commercial banks. Without the lending behavior of commercial banks, the currency will not be able to flow to the market. This is the paper currency system, and it is a very ingenious structure. It has two core mechanisms, accounts and fractional reserves. With these two core gameplays, a huge banking system has been created. The system works so well that it can even abolish the real currency, gold. At the same time, we can also come to the conclusion that any digital currency that has both an account and a part of the reserve fund in the gameplay is an electronic banknote. For example, the central bank is now launching this. The logic of a gold standard digital currency How can a gold standard digital currency be self-consistent? Bookkeeping: blockchain technology. Counting: digital encryption and decryption technology. Putting: Let me explain in detail how to put money into the market without a bank. Everyone's ID card is also your unique digital currency storage account. The ledger is placed on the Internet through blockchain technology. The central bank, or the Monetary Authority (Gold Authority), keeps the country's public gold reserves. This reserve is the anchor of the value of the digital currency. The HKMA buys and sells gold unlimitedly at a fixed price every day. Buying gold is to put digital currency in the market, and selling gold is to recover currency. So there are no banks in the market, how can you get a loan? In the future, everyone is a bank, and everyone can participate in a loan (just like buying and selling bonds), or borrow from the market. Of course, there will inevitably be a large number of rating agencies in the future to rate each loan project. The rating score is naturally related to the credit of the large ledger on the blockchain. Human beings are not inseparable from banks, but when and how they should leave. Of course, in this process, the pains of reform are trivial. The real resistance is the International Bankers Group. Abolishing banknotes and banks is tantamount to overturning all financial systems that humans have had for more than 500 years. All the material assets accumulated by the West will also be wiped out in this revolution. And they will certainly not sit idly by.

It's too difficult... What should I do if the transaction encounters a bottleneck?

jiaoyi golden eagle

Do you also have this kind of experience, when you encounter a bottleneck in the transaction, no matter what you do, you will always be wrong, or you will always be more wrong than right; obviously you are using the same method as before, which was very effective before, but this time it just doesn’t work The effect, or the effect is very poor..... Every trader will encounter bottlenecks, and they will encounter different bottlenecks in different trading stages. When we encounter bottlenecks, we are often puzzled and unable to find an exit, which is very frustrating. So why is there a bottleneck? Maybe the market environment has changed, maybe the mentality has changed, maybe it's some other reasons, in short, we are being suppressed by an invisible glass ceiling, you can't see where it is, but it just makes people breathless. ..... When we first entered the market to do transactions, when we came into contact with a new method, we would test it first to see how effective it was. If the effect was not obvious, we would naturally discard it like dung, and then continue to look for another method until we find what we think A method that works well. However, every trading method has a period of time to adapt to the market. The method we abandoned at the beginning may just not adapt to the market at that time; It was just a matter of adapting to the market at that time. Then, we will work hard to learn a lot of theoretical knowledge. We always feel that the more we learn, the more we gain. However, the more you learn and the more complicated it is, maybe it's better to learn one or two methods well and thoroughly. Or, after accumulating profits for a period of time, once in a while, our funds will withdraw sharply once in a while, and we are always unable to continue accumulating wealth because our fund management strategy is not perfect enough. . It may also be that our mentality has changed. When we lose money consecutively, we will be more modest and cautious; but when we make consecutive profits, we will become conceited and careless. However, these all happen unconsciously, many times without us even realizing it. In fact, many times we also know in our hearts what we should do and what we should not do, but often at the moment of trading, we will suddenly have "brain cramps", and we just cannot achieve "unity of knowledge and action"..... . It may also be that the previous market model was very suitable for our operation cycle, which made us feel like a fish in water, but now the market model has evolved into a large-cycle market, and each cycle affects each other, making us at a loss... Also a possibility...... All in all, it is a bottleneck! What should I do if the transaction encounters a bottleneck? Share some of my small methods, I hope it will help you when you encounter bottlenecks. 1. Stop Trading When we can't figure out the clues, we must stop trading first, and continue trading after we sort out the clues. Otherwise, it is very likely that our emotions will be affected, and the trading will lose its rhythm, which will cause disaster to the trading account. Of course, it is also possible that you have achieved stable profitability, and your bottleneck is that you cannot improve your profitability. At this time, you may not need to stop trading, but before you have figured out the way to improve your ability, don’t easily change the transaction The system must be operated, otherwise it will inevitably cause damage to the trading account. Second, replay After stopping trading, the next step is to review the market to find out the root cause of the bottleneck. Review the transaction records carefully, try to find out the problem, compare the difference between the transaction before and after, and use the same method, why the effect is different before and after? Carefully explore whether it is the reason of the method or the reason of the mentality? Under normal circumstances, if you already have a roughly stable trading system, reviewing transaction records can solve most problems. As long as you find out the root of the problem, you can always find a way to overcome it. Three, thinking If after the above two steps, there is still no result, or you are still building a trading system, then the next step is to think deeply. Try to think about where the problem is all the time, or you know the flaws of the trading method, but you can't find a better strategy to deal with it, then try to think about how to optimize the strategy. Some people just keep thinking like this, and accidentally having a dream solves the problem! Because when you are immersed in a problem, the brain is working subconsciously. Therefore, thinking deeply without interruption often leads to epiphanies inadvertently. And if you don’t make any progress no matter how you think about it, you can temporarily put aside the problem and do something interesting. The left brain and the right brain are used alternately, and sparks often collide. Or you can go for a walk, climb a mountain, travel, take a hot bath, let yourself go, and get inspired occasionally. Four, study 1. If there is no progress or gain, go to review, review is also a kind of learning. Take out the books or notes that have brought you great gains before, such as K-line theory, market patterns and other theoretical books. Learn the new by reviewing the past, very often we will suddenly see the light during the review process, "Oh, so it is like this"... 2. You can also communicate more with your peers, learn from them, keep an open mind, and don't work behind closed doors. Everyone has something worth learning from others. Sometimes we may get inspiration and inspiration because of a casual sentence from others. 3. You can also read new books and learn new knowledge. This world is wonderful, everything has different characteristics, different theories will have different interpretations of the same market, but the right things are always connected, absorb nutrition from other people's knowledge and experience, learn from different Sensing the market from a different angle often inspires us. When we encounter a bottleneck, don't be irritable, discouraged, and don't shrink back. Try to break through it, and it will eventually make us stronger. Whenever we break through a bottleneck, the feeling of transparency and clarity is so beautiful, and our level will get another qualitative leap, and the road before us will become wider and brighter.

Jiaoyi Golden Eagle Exchange Circle

What should the medium and long-term do?

风生水起

I have always wanted to discuss a topic-what does profit have to do with it? Mainly, many people hoped that I could talk about my personal methods and strategies, so I wrote this article (the content is mainly related to the medium and long-term, and I personally don’t know how to do short-term, and I really have no short-term experience). Let me say in advance that I am not a master, but also a little leek, and the expression is just my personal opinion. If there is any mistake or omission, I hope everyone will point it out, thank you! The main reason for this topic is that many people asked me how to look at gold in the early stage, whether it is long or short, and do you understand the technical aspects, and some people will talk about the fundamentals, but there are really few. Fundamentals should be based on personal understanding. Yes, just like reading a book, what you learn has something to do with understanding. Many people will have different perceptions after reading it. In fact, I was obsessed with technical aspects + fundamentals at the beginning. I also saw a lot of masters writing a lot about this thing. I kept reflecting on my mistakes in making orders, and looked at why it was right or wrong. Whether it should be held for a long time or a short-term holding, these should actually be right, or they can be said to be wrong, or should be determined according to personal personality. An impatient character will definitely be a bit uncomfortable to be a mid-term. There are also many things that cannot be copied. Let me talk about my own experience here, because I mainly focus on band or medium and long-term, and rarely look at short-term or one-day things when looking at things. Most of them start by looking at one week, two weeks, one month, or even one year. Pre-judgment will be made in advance for things that are about to happen with a high probability in about two years, and the ups and downs in the middle are generally seldom watched. Let this fluctuation be played by yourself. If you look at short-term things every day, it will take a lot of time, and it will be very tiring. In addition, I am a lazy person, and I don’t like to watch the market often. When I have a chance or I am in a good mood, I see that the recent fundamentals are okay, and the points are okay. after the judgment is completed). Most of the trend is based on what may happen in the future of the event, and the K-line of the market will have a corresponding reflection. The speculation must be "buying current events, speculating on expectations", which will be reflected in advance. It may become negative, after all, the previous news has been digested. For making orders, I mainly look at fundamentals + technicals + market sentiment. In my eyes, these should be more important, but they also include a lot of things. 1. I mainly make gold, so let’s talk about gold. For example, the current volatility of gold, under normal circumstances, it should be a normal phenomenon to rise or fall by 20-30 US dollars. Of course, there are also unconventional ones, such as 50 or more US dollars. It’s just that this phenomenon is relatively small, but as a trader, it must be It needs to be counted, because both have the potential to sweep you away. Understand this rule in order to do better risk control and not let yourself have too many problems. 2. Fundamentals are hard to say. They include too many things, such as the current economic situation, national conditions and policies, epidemics, vaccines, national debt, etc. In fact, this is also very lacking for individuals, and I am constantly learning , Including macro and micro knowledge, which things will affect what, come out a message to understand the logic behind it, whether it is true or false, this needs to be judged by yourself. For the news that we retail investors actually get, it can be said that the news we see has been filtered many times, but it still has a certain effect. This needs to be understood by ourselves. 3. There are a lot of technical things to talk about. I always understand that this thing is useful, but sometimes it doesn’t work. There are too many technical things, and there are reasons for how to draw. As for the indicator, I only use the moving average (5.10.20, sometimes 50.200) and MACD. As for the RSI in my chart every time, I actually don’t understand it at all. It’s completely used for good looks, haha! Now I just draw the trend occasionally, to identify how many kinds of possibilities there are, and when the fundamentals determine a good direction, I need to look at the point, and how many possibilities determine where the risk of placing an order is the least or how much risk I can bear. (You don’t need to learn too much about technical aspects, just apply to yourself, let alone think that it is omnipotent, you must look at it in combination with fundamentals. Not many, of course, the existence of great gods cannot be ruled out.) 4. Market sentiment, this thing is actually very interesting. When there is a big rise or fall, there must be something with emotion. When there is a big fall or a big rise, it is necessary to understand whether the rise is driven by its own value or driven by emotions. This is If you want to increase or decrease your position, whether you are "luting more" or "luting short". 5. It is recommended to stay in the market forever, so that you can really have a chance. When you liquidate or leave, this market will definitely not belong to you anymore. It can be said that there is no chance at all. For chasing ups and downs, it should be said that you are not in the car for the most part. It is actually very painful when you are not in the car when you see a rise or fall. I have often felt this feeling before. 6. Learn to be patient and wait. Often there will be great mood swings when watching the market. Why there are traders and traders in this industry is because most people watch the market and see fluctuations. In fact, it is easy to be affected, which is easy to influence The earliest personal judgment may lose the original intention, which is very unreasonable. If you are trading alone, try to watch the market as little as possible after making a good strategy, and it is actually good to spend more time doing what you want to do (just watch occasionally, this method is mainly for medium and long-term practices). If you wait without an order, many opportunities come from waiting, not just placing an order at will. It is said that "ten minutes on stage, ten years off stage", this means that to do something, you need to be fully prepared before you start to make a move. Only by being very precise can you have more hope of winning greater victories. Be a friend of time, you will get more. 7. Don’t have too many "plays" in your heart, always thinking whether the main force is washing you, I think it’s okay to place an order, and many times I think it’s a bad decision, and the market may not appreciate "wishful thinking" , Ordering must have its own logic, even if you make a mistake, it doesn't matter, because no one in this world will not make mistakes, but if you make a mistake, you must learn the corresponding experience, so that you can grow faster. Keep a simple heart and don’t be too complicated. Sometimes after placing an order, you start to wonder if you made a mistake. This is very wrong. Face it simply, and time will tell you the truth. A lot of predictions have been made before the order, and those who have done a good job in risk control only need to wait. 8. I have more trust in myself, and I often communicate with friends about fundamentals, and some friends even make models (models are also a reference, but not the only standard, 100% correct), anyone’s Understanding will have its own logic, and those logics can be used for reference, but you must have your own logic and combine other people's logic with your own to make a decision. This decision will be of great help to your growth, because the truth will be demonstrated later Yes, right or wrong is actually not that important, the point is that you firmly believe that it will come soon, instead of a friend saying his point of view, you just follow it completely, which is unfair to yourself, after all, you are doing the transaction yourself , Destiny needs to be in your own hands. 9. Don't care too much about gains and losses, always only have your own logic, many times we tend to easily want this and that, but in the end we don't get anything. Don't envy others, humbly find what you want is the most important thing. If you see how much others have earned, or have caught both long and short positions, it is meaningless for you to envy this. In this world, there will always be losses when there is something. Keep your own boundaries and earn within your ability. This kind of money is the most reassuring, so that you won’t be tired every day, causing yourself to feel bad and uncomfortable. This is unfair to yourself. Trading is happy, not to make yourself uncomfortable. Things just don't work for me.

Mid-term and long-term exchange learning

How To Determine What Type Of Forex Trader Are You?

fong zi cheng

Determining your Forex trading style involves assessing your time commitment, risk tolerance, goals, and market knowledge. Here's a concise guide: 1) Know Trading Styles: -Day Trader: Intraday trades. -Swing Trader: Short to medium-term positions. -Position Trader: Long-term positions. -Scalper: Quick, small-profit trades. 2) Evaluate Yourself: -Assess time availability. -Determine risk tolerance. -Clarify financial goals. 3) Review Past Trades: -Analyze successful and unsuccessful trades. -Identify preferred timeframes and market conditions. 4) Experiment and Adapt: -Use demo accounts to try different strategies. -Adapt as you gain experience and market understanding. 5) Seek Guidance: -Consult experienced traders or advisors. 6) Take Personality Tests: -Some platforms offer tests for trading inclinations. 7) Stay Open to Evolution: -Be willing to adapt your trading style over time. Regular self-assessment and a flexible approach contribute to successful Forex trading.

Trading Forex With Zi Cheng

Attack on Israel boosts appeal of gold, safe-haven assets

saifalhilali

The violence in Israel that erupted this weekend is prompting a move into safe-haven assets as investors closely watch events in the Middle East to gauge the geopolitical risk to marketsRising geopolitical risk would see buying in assets like gold and the dollar , and boost demand for U.S. Treasuries, which have been sold off aggressively, analysts said over the weekend. As trading started in Asia on Monday those themes played out. U.S. stock futures slid < ESc1>, while crude , gold and Treasuries got a boost.

Road to consistent success

The Ultimate Destiny of a Trader - Write to Yourself

似水流年

Every trader is a lone traveler. Whether it's windy flowers, snowy moons, poor mountains and bad waters, you can only go alone. Frustrations and ups and downs are everywhere, and the future may still be muddy after walking through it; But if you don't go, the dark clouds over your head will never dissipate. Looking back after drifting away; You will find that the hurdles that you thought were difficult to pass have already been passed. Those who have given you endless pain, setbacks and failures are already vulnerable and vulnerable. The improvement of cognition means that there are very few people who can understand you. There are fewer and fewer people around you, and you can only move forward alone. Those traders who are already ahead feel invincible, empty, lonely and cold. And those who fell behind and failed to liquidate their positions feel as if they have been abandoned by the world. In every invisible place, behind the endless candlesticks, every trader has his own loneliness. This is the ultimate destiny of every trader. (The movie The Big Short, a trader character I like very much) Trading is not gambling, it is a repeated attempt to make money. The market is the best teacher, and your right and wrong will be reported truthfully. And you have to be the best introspector you can be. Do these two things, and you can survive here after all. Impulse trading is greed, and it kills your chances of consistent profitability. You will always understand, especially in the margin market, that there is only a thin veil between heaven and hell, and it may only be a few seconds. Losing money is not necessarily a loss. There is no need to regret it. Doing business requires costs. What matters is how much you win when you win and how much you lose when you lose. When you get used to looking at losses without emotion, you have taken the first step. The market does not care about victory, the only opponent is ourselves, and the genes of failure flow in the blood of each of us. There is no risk in the market itself, and it doesn't matter about risk. It's just that you participate in life and death and you are killed, and you participate in risk and you are risked. So control yourself to control the risk. Avoiding a large drawdown of funds is the secret to stable profits. You should stop losses and reduce positions, and you should not take chances. Even if you succeed once, it only takes one failure to knock you down. You have to get rich slowly, whether in life or speculation, 99% of failures come from get-rich-quick fantasies. You have to distinguish what you deserve and what you want to grab from God. Getting rich quick is self-destructive. It is still a violation of heaven to do evil, but self-inflicted evil cannot live. Only a fool would feel the depth of the water with two feet. - African proverbs Trends come out, not judged by you. The future is unpredictable. It doesn't matter about forecasting. Once the forecast is correct, you feel that you are God and subconsciously enlarge your position. If the prediction is wrong, you feel like a clown, your mentality collapses, and you operate in chaos. I can give you a way to stabilize losses, enter a small level such as 1 minute, and then try to accurately predict every turning point and seize every positive and negative two-way fluctuation. No need to set a profit target for yourself; The amount of profit is given by the market, not what you strive for. If you set a goal, you will have obsession and expectations. If you have expectations, you will be disappointed, and disappointment will lead to mistakes. It would be much better if traders assumed that every trade they made could fail. Be positive about life, but be pessimistic about your next deal. Speculation is sometimes similar to unrequited love between men and women: the greater the hope, the greater the disappointment! Evaluating feelings and transactions without emotion is much better. Shut up if you win, shut up if you lose. Winning and showing off is the beginning of your loss. A happy neighbor is pain, don't wake it up. In addition, this kind of thinking will make you focus on profit and loss instead of the system. The point is not how much you win or how much you lose, but how much you grow. Hude (trading system) carries things and moistens things silently, and wealth will come naturally. Life is also speculative, sincere and fearful, and often thinks about the past in leisure time. Investing is not an industry that rewards one's talents, or even the opposite. Remember, you can be wrong at any time. But paradoxically, speculation is an enterprise of absolute individual heroism. You have to insist on yourself, but also give up on yourself, and take the initiative to admit your mistakes. How to grasp the balance between these? The road is difficult, the road is difficult, not in the mountains, not in the water, but in the fluctuations of the market. Profit is to find a trace of possibility in the impossible, and it is to live and die calmly between life and death. Therefore, speculation is life, and we have to give up. Know what to stop and then gain. When you want to change your destiny through trading, you will most likely enter a loss, because you subconsciously increase your position. A large position means that your psychology, stop loss, and operation have all dropped significantly; Trading cannot change destiny, and we must be friends with time. Don't fall into egotism, don't hold positions against the market. Don't be egotistical. Admitting defeat is a kind of ability. If you want to make it perish, you must first make its crazy truth get the most perfect interpretation in the field of trading. The most regrettable thing in life is to easily give up what should not be given up, and stubbornly persist in what should not be persisted. - Plato When making steady profits or trading for a living is not a completion time but an eternity, it should not be taken lightly at any time. It is a dead end to find the precise laws of the market. You are here to make money, not to find a crystal ball! By the end of the trade, you are reticent, cautious, and egotistical. Road to Road, very Avenue. Because in the end, all your understanding, operation, life, everything is integrated into one. You are the Tao, the Tao is you, and the Tao follows nature. Do as you please.

Forex Trading Research Institute

Is your fundamental analysis sound?

微凉的天空

The rise and fall of the US dollar has a crucial impact on the currency market. Therefore, the fundamentals related to the dollar have attracted the attention of many traders. This time, we will use the US dollar as the starting point to talk about the blind spots that exist in the analysis of fundamentals. The first blind spot. There should be no objection to saying that the US dollar is the heart of the entire currency market. What is the heart of that dollar? It is estimated that many people will not be able to answer. The heart of the dollar is the five major money markets in the United States, namely the repurchase market, the commercial paper market, the certificate of deposit market, the short-term treasury bond market and the Eurodollar market. If the dollar wants to flow to the world, it has to rely on these five markets. The Fed has the closest relationship with these five markets, and money flows from the Fed to these five markets, and then flows to the world. It can be said that the five currency markets in the United States are the channels through which dollars flow through the world. We often say dollar shortage. What is the dollar shortage? That is, the world is short of dollars. What you need to know is that the dollar shortage can also be divided into chronic dollar shortage and acute dollar shortage. In short, the former is mainly caused by the relationship between supply and demand, that is, supply exceeds demand. For the latter, there are multiple possibilities. One of the possibilities is that there are problems in the five major currency markets in the United States, that is, the pipeline for the export of US dollars is blocked. March 2020 is the best example. From March to April, the Federal Reserve printed a lot of money, but why is there still a shortage of dollars? It is because of the problems in these five markets. So it is the heart of the dollar. What is the second blind spot? The relationship between overseas dollars and the US money market is unknown. For example, the interest rate of commercial paper directly affects the US dollar offered rate in London, which is the LIBOR rate. The third blind spot is not knowing the relationship between the overseas US dollar and the currency trading market. For example, foreign exchange swaps are the main tool for short-term US dollar financing. Without foreign exchange swaps, how would banks and asset management companies obtain US dollars? Where can I get US dollars? Of course, you can go to London to borrow money, find an American bank to borrow, and find a British bank to borrow. This is a way, but the cost is relatively high. For a company in Japan or China, it is the lowest cost to use RMB or Japanese Yen as collateral to exchange dollars. The fourth blind spot is not knowing the relationship between the currency trading market and overseas dollar-denominated assets. Why do we need a huge currency exchange market? Every country, including the official so-called sovereign wealth funds, holds tens of billions of dollars in assets, and the scale of the whole world is even larger, tens of trillions. With so many U.S. dollar-denominated assets and liabilities, we mainly rely on foreign exchange swaps in the currency trading market to provide short-term funding. Without this fund lending, the flow of funds will be cut off, and the US dollar and assets and liabilities will not be able to maintain, and they will all die. Therefore, short-term US dollar financing can only be obtained through foreign exchange swaps. Where does the financing in the foreign exchange swap market come from? Where did those dollars come from? Connect to the Eurodollar market through London, and then connect to the five major currency markets in the United States through the Eurodollar market. The logic in this is relatively complicated, but if you don't understand it, you don't know why. The fifth blind spot is not knowing the logical framework among the five chains from the Federal Reserve to the U.S. money market, then to the overseas U.S. dollar market, then to the foreign exchange market, and then to U.S. dollar assets. For example, if the national debt basis strategy fails, those who know how to do it will feel that the sky is falling when they see the news; but those who don’t understand will have no reaction at all. Why? Take March of this year as an example, if this strategy fails, it will involve trillions of dollars in hedge funds, and they will all be exhausted and leverage will be released on a large scale. What is the final result of unleveraging? As a result, the repurchase market in the United States was frozen, and the money in the commercial paper market was drained, and then the impact expanded. For example, Japanese pension funds could not get US dollars in Japan. Because the Bank of Japan, which provided it with U.S. dollars, has no way to raise money in the U.S. money market, and U.S. pension funds have exchanged their yen for renminbi and invested in China’s bond market. So I don't know that when a certain hedge fund fails, it will affect China's bond investment, because if it wants to unleverage, it will definitely sell a large scale of Chinese assets, whether it is stocks or bonds, it has to withdraw. The process of retracement involves exchanging foreign currency into yen, and then exchanging yen into dollars, so it will definitely cause the yen to shrink, and the yen will dry up. exhausted. Finally, another global dollar shortage occurred. This is the correct reasoning logic of fundamental analysis. Instead of jumping directly from cause to effect. For example, from March to April 2020, the Federal Reserve printed money on a large scale. As soon as the average person sees the news, it’s over, and 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars has been printed, and the U.S. dollar must be weak. The results of it? Is the dollar weak in March-April? A fall is a fall, but can you say it is weak? March-April is the worst time for the Fed to print money, but the US index is very strong. explain? Some so-called experts or teachers often talk about the fundamentals, such as the fundamentals of the Japanese economy, the fundamentals of the Chinese economy, how our exchange rate is, or whether it is a trade surplus or deficit. We are constantly in surplus, so how is our exchange rate? Or the balance of payments, look at China's capital account and financial account, we all have double surpluses. They are all tall, but at the same time fake and empty things. There is not much value for a real understanding of real-time forex trading as it happens. To give a simple example, the RMB depreciated to 7.19 on May 27, 2020. How to explain this matter? China's fundamentals have recovered. At that time, China had already resumed work. It was the earliest in the world and the best in controlling the epidemic. At the same time, the double surplus and the balance of payments are normal. Why did the RMB depreciate to 7.13 on May 27? Can this false big empty theory explain it? It is largely useless and largely ineffective for explaining markets as they occur in real time. What really needs to be understood is what went wrong with the US dollar circulation mechanism around the world at that time, and where is it stuck? In fact, such a depreciation in China is related to the yen. But most people don't think of going here. We not only need to know the conclusion, but also the whole process. Because with this system, you can think for yourself instead of listening to other people's blind analysis. In fundamental analysis, the most variable is the process. Some people may find some relevant data difficult to obtain. I think it's a bit far-fetched, let's figure out the transfer process or logic first. Otherwise, it will not be useful to get the data. If you keep track of the balance sheets of various countries, you can see a lot of things. Have you read it? The well-known free data website FRED can not only view the data that you can't think of without it, but also make any data comparison chart you want. For example, ADP and non-farm payrolls. In the past year, the statistical results of ADP were higher than the results of non-farm payrolls in most cases. Does this help the analysis of non-farm payrolls? Read it? Another example is that under the market panic shown by the VIX, the market’s choice of safe-haven products, only in terms of the nature of hedging, gold has the worst performance this year and is almost abandoned by the market, although gold has indeed risen sharply this year. But the sharp rise must be caused by hedging? Can not be other reasons? These things, make a comparison chart, at a glance. The clear data is there, have you read it? How many people say that gold's surge this year is due to risk aversion? Just because of the epidemic? Is gold the only safe-haven product? Fundamental analysis is not based on feeling, nor is it jumping directly from cause to result, ignoring the intermediate process. It is based on reasonable analysis and reasoning under a large amount of data. Especially the reasoning passed to the process.

Sky Forex Institute

Trading beliefs and trading systems.

姚胖说.

Trading beliefs are the condensation of trading ideas and practices in the process of trading operations. What is done in the operation process is the execution of the trading system, Adhering to the correct trading method does not mean that you will be successful, but if you insist on the wrong trading method, you will definitely not succeed. In the long run, we will strengthen our understanding of the trading system and form our own beliefs about trading. Therefore, trading itself is not practiced in a day, and stability is not a day or two, but a long-term accumulation process. Stability is a state, a feeling, and a feeling of making money. After having a trading system, the most important thing is not thinking, but resolute execution. Thinking is something outside the market, and the most common thing in the market is the execution of stop loss. Sometimes we only get a relatively objective understanding of the market after we have suffered some losses and then reflect on it. Traders are sometimes overly smart, making short-term results easy but long-term results difficult. Never underestimate the professional ability and vision of the marketing team and professionals. If what you do is right, then you will have fruitful results if you persist in being a friend of time. Of course, if it is wrong, then every day we persist, we may go further and further on the wrong road, So many of us can't find our way back. Sometimes we need to stop and make a correction for ourselves, and we don't have to be on the board every day. Of course, we are more afraid of making money on the wrong trading model, and we will eventually pay a considerable price to change it. It often brings about psychological dissatisfaction, but as long as you take the first step bravely, you will see real progress. We must operate on a correct track, so that even if we make mistakes, the cost is not too great. In the early stage of technology and market cognition, everyone has traveled a similar path. Traders have reached a certain level of cognition at the mid-term technical level. What is more, it is firm and strengthened execution to form a habit. Because you have faith in the trading system. Your belief is your greatest power to stop loss. Persistence and self-confidence are the last pass of the transaction. Many market conditions are slowly grinding your mind and patience, especially in the early stage of direction, the darkness before dawn. What people fear most is that there is no hope. And these hopes are the result of our long-term training.

Fat Yao talks about exchange

My grid thinking - the comprehensive quality necessary for a trader

the god of wealth has a way

I suddenly thought of this topic last night. I heard Huiyou said that he couldn’t understand Munger’s grid thinking. Don’t tell me that I didn’t understand it when I first started. It seems that it has little to do with trading. , and it was quite difficult to read, and then I slowly recalled that the whole content is actually a thinking mode of thinking about problems from multiple angles. Do you have a question? Why do we have to study language, mathematics, politics, history, geography, and biochemistry when we go to school. . . Could it be that the brains of the leaders and experts of the education department were caught by the door? No, they just want to train our multi-angle thinking, because we often need to think from different angles to solve problems in life. You can call it divergent thinking or grid thinking. Friends who have lived in the countryside since childhood should know bamboo craftsmen. The baskets and baskets they weave are actually a grid-like thing before the finished product. Bamboo strips need to pass through in different directions. After the finished product is finished, you can You will see a small nest in the middle, and all the bamboo strips are unfolded around it. Grid thinking in trading is a thinking about potential, state, and position around the position problem. So how do we have grid thinking in trading? This is a very long process, but people who love trading are worth your life's energy to pursue. Let's start with the first element potential . To learn momentum well, you must be proficient in at least several core currency theories and geopolitics. . . The supply and demand of currency reflect the economic situation of a country. If you don't understand currency theory, you can't understand the reasons behind national policies. Under the tide of globalization, it is impossible for any country to develop independently of other countries. How to get along with its neighbors and the number one power will also affect the development policy and process of the country. The current Sino-US game is a very important one. Good example. China's development will inevitably violate the core interests of the United States' national strategy. As the United States, the imbalance of regional powers is in their interests. Here it is assumed that China and Japan join forces to form an alliance, and the European continental powers form an alliance. . . Do you think the United States can still gain a lot of benefits in the world? The second is state. What is the state? In fact, it is behavior . Behind the transaction is the game of human nature, and the comparison is who knows who better. Here you think how to become an "extreme state master", you can see why the movements of Tai Chi seem to be slow, it is for cultivating the mind. Therefore, traders must be calm, calm, spot the opportunity, and attack quickly. How can this be done? First of all, you have to understand all kinds of mental tricks. Since it is mentioned above that trading is a game, then trading psychology, K-line morphology, game science, and behavioral finance. . . You have to learn both. The third element is bits. What is a bit? In fact, it is a technical form. Many people may say that it is an indicator. Do you know that being proficient in one indicator requires many other indicators to be buried with it. What I mean is that only when you compare the profound meanings of various indicators and truly understand its profound operation connotation, will you know when to use which currency and which indicator, and then you must not only learn various indicators in this process, but also have the ability to Certain digital logic ability, even programming ability. . . . The above content is simply a throw away. In the actual process, we still have a lot to learn, such as Buddhist scriptures, Tao Te Ching, Christian teachings, and philosophy. . . . All in all, we need to build multi-dimensional thinking. Trading is a large and diverse society, and we need to observe it from multiple perspectives. Otherwise, we cannot understand many phenomena. If we do not understand, we will only be ruthlessly killed by our opponents. Finally, keep in mind that grid thinking does not radiate out of order everywhere, but radiates around the core.

Only when wealth gathers can it be dispersed and wealth can be gathered

On Trading: My Three Limits

sea²

First of all, thank you very much for your attention and support all the time! It took a long time this time, because something happened to my body, but fortunately it was a false alarm, and I needed psychotropic drugs to calm me down! Once again, I would like to warn those friends who are equally paranoid and hardworking about trading, to arrange their own study, trading and life reasonably! Today’s discussion of my three extreme thinking is based entirely on the three issues of the trading system I released before. It can be said that after thinking about these three issues, I am entering the process of my personal trading system! Before the full introduction, let me reiterate that what I share is based on personal exploration and actual experience. I am very happy to learn from friends who trade online or who can help. If there are any bad or unclear expressions, please let me know. Friends, please bear with me, don't spray if you don't like it! The above is the system I personally shared before. One risk control, two indicators, and three cycles. I just call it "ⅠⅡⅢ system" which is easier to remember and helps to remind myself of several key elements! I will not repeat the details of the system here. Interested friends can check all my sharing articles in the circle I established (grassroots ten-year trading history), including "How is the trading system refined?". It can be seen from the trading system that my long-term and swing trading are all without stop loss, and I also set up matching without leverage and 2 times leverage accordingly, and short-term trading with 3 times leverage is matched with stop loss; why? There will be such considerations, which are completely caused by the problems encountered in the trading reality! Here I will try my best to introduce in a comprehensive and detailed manner how the three problems above my personal trading system are derived! How My Three Limits Thinking Was Born... Like most novices, a person like me who walks on the road of trading has no background, no formal channels, and can only do things together to find things to learn. As long as it is about trading, just take it for a look; in the first year or two when I started learning trading, I slowly began to understand a problem. Regardless of whether it is a strategy or a strategy, you must have a certain ability to execute it, otherwise how can you show the level of the transaction and the quality of the level! At least one thing, no matter what strategy or technique you use, it is not a huge profit. If so, someone would have invented the perpetual motion machine (EA trading); so don't have that kind of unrealistic idea. But there are exceptions to everything. The people at the top of the game are both the makers of the rules of the game and the participants of the game. It’s like a game of cat and mouse. No matter how hard you try, you can’t escape the cat’s claws. No tricks are allowed here! Therefore, in my later study, I deliberately did not spend a lot of time on technical analysis. I just paid attention to the fundamentals, and at the same time, the technical aspects were almost five-five-six-six. After empirical analysis and judgment are ruled out, the outcome will be determined by the trend. Even if the result of the outcome comes out, I will not pursue the cause too much! In this way, I slowly began to ask myself, since trading is said to be miraculous by most people, the market is always right, and don’t go against the market trend, but most people will say, but if you delve deeper into the problems, including me I don't understand it very well; I know the market is not as people say, the market is unpredictable, the market is not pure like nature and disordered, nor is it pure like the weather and unpredictable , on the contrary, it is like a pre-agreed game, but you are too small in it, so small that a group of mysterious and powerful people who are beyond your imagination can't find you. I just knew that there were loopholes in it, but I couldn't express it. Soon, once in the Lianbanwai Book City in Xiamen, an idle person like me had nothing, just had time, so I just wandered in and walked to the financial center. After all, I can't understand the classification of other places in the area. There is a book with four big characters like "Zero-sum Game", and the book cover is red; it seems that I saw it on this book! After flipping through a few pages, I discovered these three limit problems, and they gradually became part of my transaction in the future! One of my three extreme thinking: If you are strong enough to influence or even control the market, then you will be invincible in the market! When I saw this sentence, I didn't feel it at first; after all, I only entered the industry for two or three years, and then I read a book "The Federal Reserve", my dear; I watched a documentary later, and I watched it repeatedly, called "Wall Street "; What started from Needlework Street, and what started from the Renaissance, etc. Now as long as these names are mentioned, my head can hear the introduction voice behind the scene of the film like a movie; slowly I began to seem I understand a little more, and I am more certain that the market is not a pure market, at least not much cleaner than the domestic A-shares. On the contrary, the dirtiness of the domestic A-shares is not an order of magnitude compared with the foreign exchange market, because If the order of magnitude is too large, you will appear to be very small, so small that you have no right to argue, and A shares can still have something to say! Let me surprise! Speaking of this, Laohui people should be clear that every target in the transaction corresponds to every country, and each country is the banker of this target, and the person who executes it is the central bank or investment bank, and the speeches of those important leaders are actually There are vested interests behind it! Whether it's 911 or the Iraq War...it's just that we, ants-like meat, will never be the main course on the table of these giant beasts! Therefore, regarding this extreme topic, so far I have not been able to extract any ideas that are helpful for my own trading, because these giants are fighting, and the market changes are often changing rapidly. Before you can react, the main force of the market may have long been the other side up! In this era of the US dollar, some are just conforming; but it is not completely without loopholes, just like every time the market encounters a huge force majeure factor, it can still take advantage of the trend and eat a piece of monsters (various countries and consortiums) caused by fierce robbing. Meat that fell from the table due to a brief shake of the table (market)! But this short shaking doesn't happen very often, because they don't like the table (market) shaking too often! For example, the force majeure of the new crown or the systemic financial risk will be the incentives, and the behemoths will not be able to erode the market calmly! Therefore, this limit has taught me not to easily try to imagine sharing the meat on the table with the giants, because I am not worthy; some just wait patiently, waiting for the next time they compete or encounter force majeure factors, the table shakes and falls off the meat , quickly grab a little bit and run, you can't keep grabbing! If you grab too much, you are afraid that the giant beast will bend over and find out that you will be out of breath if you are crushed, and you will be sent directly to the ICU or even sent away! Well, about this limit, you can experience it yourself....! Summary: Since we are doomed not to be giants (country, central bank, consortia or investment banks), standing at the top of the food chain or game, then hide well, hide well, and wait patiently for every snatch of giant beasts (monetary policy or financial system) risk) or in the event of an accident (force majeure factor), the table starts to shake, and we can quickly grab the food that belongs to us. (Shoot when shaking), don't pick too big (position), just suit yourself! The second of my three extreme thinking: If you can complete a transaction in a very short period of time, you can also remain invincible! Regarding the second limit, at first I felt the same as the first question. I was at a loss without much experience and experience; until later, I gradually came into contact with more things, and what I saw and heard There are many, and slowly began to form their own answers! It turns out that in this market, apart from the top-level monsters (country, central bank, and consortium), there are also a group of forces that are free from the rules and are indispensable; these forces are huge liquidity providers. Participating in the ups and downs of the market, some just provide huge trading volume, no matter how long or short, what you earn is only a small price difference negotiated with the bank; In front of the turnover of the unit, it is really like a thousand-year-old vampire, don't worry, because the market has a steady supply of blood! It is precisely because of the liquidity provider that the cost of our transactions in the market is getting lower and lower, and the trading experience is getting better and better! Regarding the liquidity provider, in addition to the role of the bank, there is also an artificial intelligence trading team specializing in high-frequency trading. There is not much information about this aspect, and it seems to be introduced in the documentary "Million Traders"! If you are interested, you can go and have a look! Here comes the problem, even in the face of this kind of strength, there are still a group of ruthless characters like werewolves appearing. These ruthless characters are high-frequency traders and smart EAs. Thoughts, but the blood drawn is from the market and brokers! Therefore, many brokers have clearly stipulated in recent years that the platform belongs to MM (market maker), and all transactions must be more than one minute or more than three minutes, and those below this time are illegal operations! This kind of scalping technique is most typical in the US stock market. US stock traders can complete a transaction with almost no risk by virtue of negligible cost and even the path of channel discount interest plus small market fluctuations. However, These skills require special training and countless attempts, and in the end, like a sniper, it is almost a hundred shots! Although they are not like liquidity providers, they can be regarded as taking the initiative in the market; over time, the market seems to be reluctant to have these people, because they are not members of the system, and they do not have that ticket. It seems that they have been given the qualification to share the fruits. Therefore, the US stock market also has a tendency to increase costs, which makes it more and more difficult for short-term sniper stragglers to survive! Fortunately, the small level of volatility in the foreign exchange market still provides a battlefield for talented fast players, including stock indexes, and even the domestic futures market, can rely on this superb short-term technology to complete sniping, but it is not just about physical strength and skills The contest is more a contest between oneself and one's own heart! At present, this kind of extreme thinking has gradually evolved into a lot of intraday ultra-short-term transactions. This kind of judgment is not a trend, but more of a grasp of the small amplitude rhythm of the intraday market. Every minute and every second is a test of the control of psychological fluctuations. , so those who can survive in this limit can be regarded as a ninja! Has a lonely but sensitive heart! Summary: This extreme thinking is currently the purpose of short-term intraday thinking in my system, but I currently have neither such talent and ability nor such physical strength and perseverance to conquer this battlefield. I just use this method to complete short-term intraday trading , Even if there is no market within the day, the trading method of this idea has become a fixed part of the source of income within the day! The third of my three extreme thinking: If you have enough wealth, you can also be invincible! Speaking of this limit, many people may say that it is all nonsense, it is indeed the case, and my first feeling is also true; there is no absolute in everything, it is just this sentence, which has become a key point that overrides the risk control of my later trading system. The only risk indicator on the Internet can be said to be my risk control system, and the highest risk indicator is this purpose! Now, allow me to slowly split my understanding of this sentence; many things are relative, high and low, big and small, more and less; if you have enough net worth, your account will never be liquidated, After writing this, some people probably know that this limit is actually about position management; if you have enough net worth to cover the maximum amplitude of your market, does it mean that you have enough wealth! For example, if you have 10,000 US dollars, you can operate many targets at this time. If the target you are operating is EURUSD, a standard point is 10 US dollars, and you open a position, then you can theoretically carry 1,000 points. If Open a position with 0.1 lot, theoretically you can bear the amplitude of 10000 points! However, human nature is often not satisfied with this. For 10,000 US dollars, if you make 0.1 lot, if you are really trapped in it for a few thousand points, even if you don’t lose money, when will you be able to get out of the trap in the end? If the direction is negative interest rates, a lot of interest rates will be posted. What I want to say is: After writing here, everyone can study the price difference between all historical highs and lows of currencies in various countries, as well as the ratio of current points to high and low points. , this is also the limit test part of my current system risk control calculation table. At this time, the chances of winning have increased a lot...; I hope this idea can broaden the thinking of some friends; interested friends can follow This idea finds some ways to improve trading performance, so I won’t dig too deep. Everyone has different ideas; if you just want to read a story or want to find a ready-made idea, don’t research and explore by yourself. Then my sharing is of little significance to these friends! I have to break the fantasy of some friends here. Trading is a serious and rigorous job. If you are eager for quick success and always pursue a monthly profit of dozens of percentage points, or even a few months or a month. All sharing is just water! For friends with such expectations, there is basically nothing to learn from here! It is precisely because of this limit that I was spared from being killed when crude oil plummeted not long ago. I was also a member of the bottom-manager army. When the price was only eleven or twelve dollars, I entered the market. The position I opened was crude oil spot , the price fell to 0; because the futures contract is ten times larger than the spot contract, my basic account cannot meet the risk requirements. If I make a crude oil futures contract, then my documentary account is also terrible; on the premise of extreme risk control Next, calculate the position. My basic account is only enough to establish a spot crude oil position. In the end, all of them are settled. My loss is only a little over ten percent! It is precisely because of this incident that I have seen the bloody market, and confirmed a sentence, there is no absolute in everything! Therefore, in my trading in the next few years, I was not too obsessed with trading techniques, and only used MACD, SO, the simple shape of the K line and a 5-day moving average! The strategy is also mostly designed to control risks. Even I seldom study the trend, and often do some hedging of exaggerated varieties, without research on structure and form! It's more just to read the news every day, especially the far-reaching ones, not the sudden news! Or about monetary policy in different regions! Finally, I want to say that after sharing so many biased articles, it is inevitable that some friends will say, if you look so powerful, can you share your account and watch it; I want to say that I don’t have superb trading skills, most of the time It's all about improving one's risk management ability, so it is destined that a trader of my type will not have that kind of shocking scene and gratifying results, barely lingering in the market, leaving a glimmer of life! Trading is not everything to me. Life and family are everything to me. Trading is just a hobby, but it just became a career by accident. According to the risk control settings of my system, there is no leverage in the long-term, 2 times in the swing band, and 3 times in the short-term with a stop loss. Enough to beat most financial products on the market! Of course, you still have to consider the time cost, but even if you consider the time cost, this kind of risk control setting is enough to use, novices should not be impatient, leverage is a two-sided knife, reducing unrealistic expectations in the heart can not only harvest unexpected things The effect can also save lives in times of danger! Summary: Although the first limit is doomed for us not to be lucky enough to participate, we can adapt to it and don’t rush for quick success; the second limit is that there is still room for the market. Warriors who are passionate about trading can hone themselves and reserve One's own energy and physical fitness, go to the battlefield to fight heartily and smartly, and many people can be achieved here; the third limit, my personal understanding, is the original intention of deciding whether to survive in the market for a long time. , that can also allow yourself to get long-term peace! Finally, I would like to send a word to Huiyou: It is very important to be happy every day! Wish you happy trading and smooth trading!

Ten Years of Grassroots Trading History

Do you know what "break-even" is?

ea专业户1

It is difficult to make money in trading, where is the difficulty? Why are most people losing money? Why do you make money for a while, but still lose money in the end? Why does the trading model I made look good sometimes, but the result is still losing money? Let’s talk about breakeven today . This word is easy to understand, but this word is difficult to solve. It can be said that basically none of the strategies available on the market can solve the problem of break-even. Let's take the most common Martin as an example. Can Martin make money? within the stage. Can Martin make money all the time? Extremely difficult! Why is it extremely difficult? Many of you Martin have tried. For example, I changed the stop loss to a smaller size. 500, at this time you will find that stop loss is very easy, right? Then I will change it to 1000 at this time. The stop loss is less, but there is still a stop loss Then I will change to 3000, and the stop loss will be less. So can I make money? no…… Because the speed at which you make money cannot keep up with the speed at which you lose money. When your stop loss reaches 500, you will lose less, but the stop loss is very frequent. The stop loss is 3000, and the stop loss is less. But if you stop the loss once, you will not be able to earn back. Then, some people will think, can I reduce the distance between positions and increase his earning speed? Someone must have tried it. The results of it? You will find that his fault tolerance rate has been reduced, making money faster, but the probability of stop loss is higher. No matter how you debug, the end result is losing money. what is the reason? It's breakeven. The speed of making money, the size of the stop loss, the frequency of the stop loss, the fault tolerance rate... these sets of data will stump many people. If the reconciliation is not good, the final result must be unsatisfactory. Some people will say, as long as I make enough money in a limited time, I will leave the market, isn't it all right? Novices who have played minesweeper games will know where the mines are! everywhere~ There is a word called Murphy's Law, which is not something you can avoid if you want to. If you want to play Martin well, the above four conditions are indispensable. If you can't reconcile them well, you will find that you can't go on at all. Accidents and risks are everywhere. We are talking about trends or many types of one order at a time. Many people will find a phenomenon that if you suddenly change the number of hands, you will suffer a lot. There are many strategies for one order at a time, which is floating single thinking. What is a floating order means that the stop loss is very large and the take profit is very small. If you look at the account history, all the orders are profitable. If you look at the positions, you will see floating losses. Many manual traders also have this problem, they leave when they make money, and carry it when they lose money. The results needless to say. Everyone knows that this is definitely a loss, why? The profit and loss structure is out of balance. It is impossible to make a profit of 10 yuan and a loss of 100 yuan. Then there is another approach, which is to take a small stop loss and a small stop profit. When you look at the strategy model, the accuracy rate is very high, but when you actually run it, you lose money in a mess. Why is this so? "cost"! Costs account for the majority of profits. For example, 100 stop profit, 100 stop loss, generally one profit and one loss, the loss is about 20. The more orders, the more losses. That is to say, your cost occupies too much of your profit margin, and this structure is also very problematic. The structural model seems to be fine. However, the cost accounts for too much of the profit. If your cost exceeds 10% of the profit, the final result is generally not very good. The result of any model actually has a corresponding algorithm ratio. If the strategy model does not rely on the calculation of breakeven, it will definitely be a loss in the end, no matter how you do it. Some people say that my winning rate is as high as 90%, but I lose money. Some people say, why do I make money when I increase my position logarithmically, but I still lose money in the end? Some people say that I do a good job in manual trading, but I don't make any money. The root cause of everything is the balance of profit and loss! Breakeven is a calculation problem. Whether you trend, multi-currency martins, single-currency martins, or manual trading… If you don't calculate the balance point in the middle, the final result must be a loss.

Trader Training Base

How to improve the profit and loss ratio in trend trading?

devil uncle k

There is a saying "trend is king" widely spread in the trading market, then we can simply understand that most traders who can make stable profits basically use trend trading, so I believe in trend trading between the winning rate and the profit-loss ratio Players must first make a profit-loss ratio and secondly to increase the winning rate. The moving average is used as a trend indicator, so our topic today is how to use a single moving average to create a transaction with a high profit-loss ratio. (In the following articles, we will use a single EMA to do trading examples) What is the profit and loss ratio? In short, the ratio of a single retracement amount to a profitable exit, through the high profit-loss ratio trading method to achieve sustained and stable income in the account, today we will divide it into three major sections to analyze the profit-loss ratio. 1. Execute strategy signals and determine the main trading cycle. Before the beginning, I would like to emphasize the importance of transaction consistency. If the transaction is more random, the transaction results will also be more random, which also highlights the ancient Chinese wisdom "There must be a reason There is fruit, cause and effect reincarnation". In the process of trading, you must fix your trading time period. One is to let you have a deep familiarity with the market pattern of the time period you operate; the other is to have a core foundation in the subsequent cycle switching, so that you will not lose your way in future operations. On the premise that the trading cycle is not fixed, what should you do if multiple cycles give you opposite signals at the same time? It is conceivable that your trading will be messed up, and you will not dare to place an order or you will be out of the game with a stop loss. So you must fix your own main trading cycle, and then carefully analyze the market step by step. Then the cycle is fixed, and the next step is how to increase the profit-loss ratio. 2. Cycle switching, from short to long After our main trading cycle is determined, cycle switching is naturally indispensable if we want to increase the profit-loss ratio. The principle of period switching is that the span between time and time should not be too large or too small, and the selected time period should be relatively stable. Too small a time period may lead to frequent stop loss of the account due to noisy and unstable signals. The reference and operability of an excessively large time period are relatively low, but the stability is strong, and it is suitable for risk control by amateur traders or professional teams. Take the EURUSD I use as an example, I will basically fix it at 15 minutes, and the auxiliary reference period is 1H and 4H. In the process of trading, there will be multiple cycles giving opposite signals, for example: 15min and 1H are in the same direction and 4H is reversed, 15min and 4H are in the same direction and 1H is reversed, 1H and 4H are in the same direction and 15min is reversed. Next, I will conduct case analysis to solve doubts. 1. When 15min and 1H are the same and reverse to 4H. We use the moving average to step back for 15 minutes to enter the market, because 15 minutes and 1H are in the same direction, so there is a high probability that this order can be obtained from the 15 minute level to the 1H level. The premise must be that the shape formed during the 15-minute operation is exactly the 1H entry signal or must have passed the 1H danger zone. The above is the standard 15min and 1h reverse to 4h, so we have already entered the market at 15min, and we have also given a short signal when we get 1h, so we can get the 1h level for this order, so The profit-loss ratio has been greatly improved. Next, we can take a look at the results of this order as shown in the figure below. 2. When 1h and 4h are in the same direction and 15min is against the trend, we need to judge whether the space of our left transaction can meet our profit-loss ratio requirements. The premise must be that the profit-loss ratio is above 1:1.5. Trading. There is also a situation where 15min and 4h are in the same direction and 1h is reversed. I will not give an example in this article. Traders and friends can try to study how you should deal with this situation when it happens. 3. The calculation method of the profit-loss ratio Many people are struggling with this question before trading, "What is my profit-loss ratio, and is this order meaningful to enter the market?" There are two directions to determine the profit-loss ratio. Contradictions are interrelated. First of all, when the trading entry signal appears, whether we should enter the market or not is very different in terms of execution. Let me give you a simple example: Suppose you have your entry signal at 1:00 in the morning, whether you will enter the market at this time, and if you enter the market, you need to keep an eye on the market to see if there will be any abnormal market. In the process of entanglement, you must think whether this order is worth staying up late to place, then you go back and calculate the profit-loss ratio of the order, if it is less than 1:1. My personal suggestion is that the body is the capital of the revolution. Regarding the profit-loss ratio of an order that has not yet been traded, we usually look at the stop loss position and target position of the order. We don’t need to talk too much about the stop loss position (the previous article on the official account has a detailed introduction to stop loss Is your stop loss method correct?) Pay attention to explain your target exit position, the first target take profit position you can pay attention to a support pressure level in front of your main cycle, and the second target take profit position needs to pay attention to the big cycle support pressure level. Calculate your expected profit-loss ratio based on these and then decide your order. The second method is to obtain the relative ratio based on historical order statistics. You need to conduct a review to calculate your average stop loss range, average profit points, maximum stop loss points, and maximum profit points, and then make statistical comparisons to obtain a high probability ratio. The premise of this operation must be that your transactions need to have continuity and consistency, and consistency is a very important reference value. Once the operation is relatively random, your data results must be random, which can have a reference value very low. The profit-loss ratio is one of the necessary reference standards for trend traders, and there are many ways to improve the profit-loss ratio, but it still needs to be customized according to your trading model. There are many trading methods, what everyone has to do is suit themselves.

Open your eyes! Here are Top 5 established brokers which are often cloned.

iamjane

Compared to other types of frauds, clone scams are far trickier and more difficult to detect. Those bogus firms not only swindle hard-earned money from investors, but steal the good name of genuinely legitimate companies as well. Therefore, we collected and analyzed the data of 20 well-known brokers’ clone firms. Below, I listed the top 5 brokers which are often cloned by scammers, along with 3 tips to help you avoid the clone firms. Top 5 established brokers which are often cloned No.1 Exness Exness stands the first of the list with at least 18 clones. It is well-known trading brand held by Exness Group. Founded in 2008, this group currently operates seven entities, including Exness (SC) LTD (formerly known as Nymstar Limited), Exness B.V. , Exness (VG) Ltd. , Exness ZA (PTY) Ltd, Exness (Cy) Ltd, Exness (MU) Ltd and Exness (UK) Ltd (formerly known as Exness Europe Limited). No.2 AvaTrade The second place is AvaTrade, whose clone firms reaches up to 16. AvaTrade is a reputable broker and also one of the most highly regulated online brokers to offer Forex and CFD trading. Established in 2006, it is licensed as a regulated broker in the EU, Japan, Australia, South Africa, UAE and the British Virgin Islands. As such, AvaTrade offers clients multiple trading websites in different languages, which is one of selling point for AvaTrade. No.3 FOREX.com FOREX.com is ranked 3rd and its clones hit 14. As one of the longest standing brand, GAIN Capital Group LLC, trading as FOREX.com, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc, a NASDAQ-listed financial giant. Since operating in 2001, it has a strong presence across the world and regulated in multiple jurisdictions worldwide, including the FCA, NFA, CySEC, ASIC, MAS, FSA of Japan, CIMA and IIROC. No.4 FXTM The fourth place in this list is FXTM, with at least 12 clones. FXTM is the brand of four entities, ForexTime Ltd, Exinity Capital East Africa Ltd, Exinity UK Limited and Exinity Limited. These companies are all owned by Exinity Group. The broker is founded in 2011 and authorized and regulated in various jurisdictions, covering FCA, CySEC, CMA and FSC of Mauritius. No.5 IC Markets IC Markets is the No. 5 position of the list, whose clones is roughly 9. It is an Australian based online forex broker that was established in 2007. The company has multiple branches and is regulated by CySEC, FSA of Seychelles and ASIC. The Group has several regulated entities, encompassing IC Markets EU, IC Markets AU, IC Markets Global and IC Markets SCB. 3 Common Tactics Employed by Clone Firms 1.Make good use of the established brokers’ socialproof All the clone scams either are unregulated or steal the license number of regulated brokers. Those impostors who steal the license number and pretend to be reputable or well-known firms, capitalize on the socialproof to fool investors into believing their claims. FOREX.com is a good example of that. The broker had an excellent reputation among Chinese investors as it was approved by China Banking Regulatory Commission as early as in 2011. However, more than a half of clone firms are registered in China. It turned out that clone scams masqueraded as reputable firms could make much less effort to gain investors’ trust. 2.Choose brokers which have various company names and websites Notably, all the five brokers have various company names, which are more likely to be the prime target of clone frauds. Let’s take Exness as an example. The names of Exness Group companies are too complex to be memorized. Although most fraudsters tend to make subtle changes to the established company names, 8 out of 18 scammers choose to directly adopt the original company name of Exness, such as Exness (SC) LTD and Nymstar Limited, which often makes investors much harder to detect. Scammers even take advantage of the multilingual trading websites to pretend to be overseas company of the real broker. They usually claim to be local branches and add the country to the company name such as Ava Pairs Trade Markets Incorporated, or to the web site domain names like asiatrader.com.tw. 3.Choose brokers which use abbreviated trademarks Using abbreviation as a trading name helps company keep their brand in customers’ mind but on the other hand, it may leave much room for those fraudsters. Adding or taking away words and transforming the upper or lower case are popular tactics for clone firms. For instance, FXTM is the abbreviation of its company name, ForexTime. Those fake FXTM firms add various words like FXTM Trading and Live Forex Time Group, or add asset classes such as OPTIONS FXTM and fxtm Investment option LTD to masqueraded as genuine brokers.

Broker Discussion

Transaction costs, a profit tool that is often overlooked!

拾汇工作室

I don't know if we have thought about such a problem. Is it really just a problem of trading technology that the transaction cannot be profitable for a long time? The Federal Reserve and MACD are really easy to come by, but the losses are still as usual. Today I just want to analyze from another angle, the factors that affect the profitability of our account that you ignore. It is not easy to make stable profits along the way in trading. Most traders spend too much time on probabilistic research. Under what circumstances will the MACD diverge and will not continue to diverge; the situation of the trend line does not need to wait for the third confirmation; when will the Fed discuss Taper and so on. However, it ignores the consideration of relative certainty of the account, such as transaction costs, capital utilization and transaction varieties. So, from what angles can transaction costs, capital utilization and the selection of trading varieties help us improve our chances of profit? Transaction costs --- the secret of profit being stolen As a trader, our transaction cost consists of three components, spread, handling fee (commission) and inventory fee (overnight fee). Our pursuit is that the lower the transaction cost, the better. The best vision is zero cost, and entering the market means the possibility of profit. Of course, such a low-cost platform provider is hard to come by, but if you can choose the cost specification, I don’t think anyone will choose a high-cost trading platform. It can be said that transaction cost is a problem that most of our traders tend to ignore. They often don't care about the cost of 1-2 points, but they don't know that after a long period of trading, your cost expenditure is enough to swallow up profits. Taking Europe and the United States as an example, the current transaction costs in Europe and the United States are the lowest among all platform providers. The floating spread in Europe and the United States is roughly around 0-2 points, that is, 0-20 USD/lot, and the average value is 10 USD/lot. The trading frequency is slightly higher, and it is reasonable to do 50 lots a month. Then after one month, the spread cost of 500 US dollars. If account transactions maintain this frequency, your transaction costs will reach $10,000 within 20 months of transaction time. If the account profit is 100%, then it is actually earning 200%, and 100% of the transaction costs are deducted from the 200%, and the final profit is 100%. If the account loses all funds within 20 months, your transaction will actually be a tie, with no profit or loss, but the transaction cost will directly cause your trading account to lose money. Think about it, it's really scary to think carefully! As can be seen from the above figure, even if the cost difference is only 1 point, the gap in cost will gradually increase as time goes by. This is also the essential reason why we need to pay attention to transaction costs. In terms of costs, we must pay close attention to every penny, because it is actually related to our pocketbooks. Although our transaction costs include the spread, there are also handling fees (commissions) and inventory fees. But the overall principle is that platform operators who can choose low spreads will never choose high spreads. For example, Forex platform providers, compared to its micro accounts , ultra-low spread accounts and 0 commission accounts will be more suitable for our transactions. Especially during the European and American trading hours, the spread of some mainstream varieties is almost close to 0, which can save our transaction costs to the greatest extent. Therefore, when we choose a platform provider, the choice of transaction costs is really important. It can also be said that if the platform is well selected, the probability of trading profit will be greatly increased. The picture below shows the spread cost of the Forex platform provider and Zhonghui platform. How would you choose? Obviously, FXT 's cost advantage in terms of spreads is still very obvious! Trading leverage --- an excellent tool for capital utilization We often hear others ask: the greater the leverage, the greater the risk? I don’t know if you agree with this sentence. Is it true that the greater the leverage, the greater the risk? In my opinion, leverage is directly related to margin (used advance payment), not risk. The greater the trading leverage, the less margin required, and the more margin available in the account. If we trade 2 lots of EURUSD under the premise of 100 times leverage and 1000 times leverage respectively, the margin is different, but the resulting profit and loss are the same. From this level, the greater the leverage, the greater the risk, which is biased rebuttal. Of course, as mentioned above, the greater the leverage, the smaller the margin required to pay, the more money available for trading, and the utilization rate of funds will increase. At this time, traders may increase their positions, and the trading risk will increase. just appeared. This is the direct source of risk. Therefore, it is problematic to simply think that the greater the leverage, the greater the risk. Leverage only affects our entry threshold, and position is the main factor that determines transaction risk. At the same time, the greater the leverage, the greater the utilization rate of funds in the account. Take Forex, for example, the leverage of ultra-low spread accounts and 0 commission accounts is as high as 2000 times (floating), which greatly improves the utilization rate of funds and raises the threshold for entering the market. For example, the mainstream investment in Europe and America, assuming that the current price of Europe and the United States is 1.19210, under the premise of 100 times leverage, the entry margin for trading a standard lot needs 1192.1 US dollars. If your account only has 1500 US dollars, then your available for loss It is only 307.9 US dollars, which is difficult to withstand the normal fluctuations of the market. And if it is FQT ’s 500 times leverage (maximum 2000 times), then the margin required for European and American transactions is 238.42 US dollars, and more importantly, you will not miss the opportunity because of insufficient funds in the account and cannot enter the market. Therefore, we need to learn to use leverage to make full use of the funds in the account. So, how does the size of trading leverage help us improve our chances of making a profit? Here we need to pay attention to a data --- the ratio of forced liquidation. The forced liquidation ratio is directly related to leverage and is a risk control method for the platform. So, is the liquidation ratio as large as possible, or is it as small as possible? Assuming that the liquidation ratio of the platform provider is 100%, then when our available advance payment = 0, the liquidation line of the account will be triggered; when the liquidation ratio is 200%, then when our available advance payment = used Advance payment (margin) will trigger the account forced liquidation line. As shown below: From this we can draw two conclusions: ① From the perspective of account risk, the larger the forced liquidation ratio, the more funds left in the account after forced liquidation, and the smaller the loss of funds in the account; ② From the perspective of the capital utilization rate of the account, the smaller the forced liquidation ratio, the more the amount available for loss. It is especially suitable for traders who like to carry orders, or traders of Martin EA. Therefore, as for the ratio of forced liquidation to choose, it should be determined in combination with your own trading habits. If you are a trader of Martin EA, the lower the forced ratio is, the better for you; if you are a trend trader with a large cycle, the frequent layout in the early stage requires a lower forced ratio. However, the liquidation ratio of most platforms is now controlled at 100%, in order to prevent the system from responding untimely during major market conditions. Of course, there will also be platforms with low liquidation ratios. Forex platform providers , ultra-low spread accounts and 0 commission accounts have a liquidation ratio of 50%, which maximizes the utilization of account funds. The best choice for the reader. Trading variety --- the choice of standing on the wind Everyone may think that the choice of trading varieties will not affect our trading profits. Is this really the case? A-shares (Shanghai Composite Index), from the lowest point of 2464 points in March last year to the current 3528 points, has this increase reached our trading expectations? In contrast, the US stock market (Nasdaq index) rose 117% from the lowest 6628 in March last year to the highest 14422 now. In the same time period, if you choose US stocks or Hong Kong stocks , is your profit margin greater than that of A shares? From this perspective, can choosing a good stock (variety) make our trading more profitable? much easier. To exaggerate, if you choose a stock randomly in the US stock market, the probability of making money is higher than that in the A-share market. "Standing in the air, pigs can fly" is actually true. Compared with A-shares, the procedures for opening an account for U.S. stocks are very cumbersome. I don’t know why. If we want to buy and sell U.S. stocks, we must have a bank account outside the mainland, which will be very troublesome. What surprises me is that US stocks and Hong Kong stocks can be bought and sold on the Forex platform . It can not only catch the express train of the high valuation of US stocks, but also does not require complicated account opening procedures. It is also a good choice. summary After reading this article, do you still think that transaction costs, the choice of varieties, etc. are irrelevant? Don't fall into the quagmire of technical analysis, it's better to try to change the angle, start from the direction that is easy to ignore (the account itself, maybe your transaction will have a qualitative breakthrough, I have used this platform like Fortex for many years, not only The variety is rich, the cost is conscientious, and the transaction is very smooth, I still recommend it very much. Of course, the choice of platform transaction costs is only the first step. Even if we choose a platform provider with ultra-low spreads like Forex, we still cannot guarantee that we will be profitable. We still need to continue to learn fundamentals and techniques. Can the July non-agricultural data meet expectations? Whether the Federal Reserve’s policy direction will be adjusted, etc., more content can be locked in FQT’s online sharing session, and you can pay more attention to it.

Where is the crux of Thousands of People and Thousands of Waves?

岁月静好

What needs to be confirmed is that the wave theory has merits, at least he has observed one side of the market and completed effective market information collection. The missing piece of information is the crux of the problem: time! ! ! In the previous article on how to set the moving average parameters to be objective, the main idea I wanted to express was the word objective. Similarly, to analyze the market from the perspective of wave theory, we must also uphold this principle. Let’s first look at Elliott’s explanation of the basic five waves: Elliot’s theory believes that, whether it is a bull market or a bear market, there will be several waves in each complete cycle. In a cycle of the bull market, the first five bands are driving, and the last three are adjustments; and in the first five bands, the first, third, and fifth, that is, odd numbers, promote the rise, and the second, fourth, that is, even numbers. , which is an adjusted decline. Look at how simple it is, just by observing the number and level relationship of rising and falling, but not explaining the logical relationship, and why five waves are divided into basic waves and eight waves as cycle waves. Not to mention the wave patterns that forcibly explain market behavior such as the nine waves of the day. Here, I only affirm him one thing: that is, the market will have two kinds of fluctuations, rising and falling. For the rest, I will use logic to overthrow them all below. Look at the picture below: The following is a logical explanation: Figure 1.2.3 is easy to understand, and there is no ambiguity. The change started from Figure 4, and the market evolved to the state shown in Figure 4. Both long and short positions have appeared as reference objects for comparison, that is, where there are many strong bands and where the empty strong bands are, there are already Based on a certain reference material as a standard, a relatively strong wave band is obtained: that is, the second wave of rising and the second wave of falling are both strong. Since both waves have become stronger, there is naturally no conclusion, and the market has not come out of the result. Until the appearance of Figure 5, the market finally chose to go up, and the deterministic conclusion: the strong wave band of the rise defeated the strong wave band of the fall, thus verifying that the second wave of rising is deterministically strong (this is a strong wave recognized by both long and short sides). band)! ! ! This is why it is necessary to collect five bands in order to draw a definite conclusion. Because only five waves can completely collect all the long-short information: the rising range and rising time, as well as the changes between them, and the conclusions after the comparison of strengths and weaknesses caused by them. Is the above logic a bit convoluted, but the logic is like this, one loop after another, extremely rigorous. But also because of its harsh rigor, deterministic conclusions can be drawn. It is recommended to read the above several times before looking down. Look at the picture below: There are only two types of people who are long and short in the market. The plane chart of MT4 can only display the two bands of rising and falling. The two axes of the plane can only collect time and space. Space corresponds to the volatility, and time corresponds to the number of K-lines. Market changes can only exist in time and space: that is, changes in volatility and the number of K-lines. But the corresponding logic is a two-dimensional perspective. You must compare the relationship between time and amplitude changes to fully analyze the information. What this picture draws is also where the changes in the market are. Use your brain to deduce where the changes are. Change is the core of the market. Only when the market becomes abnormal can there be trading opportunities. This abnormal state only exists in time or space. Find out the changes, reason about the cause and effect, who is the cause and who is the effect. Trading opportunities are always only in Yinli! ! ! Here is an example: Guided by the logic of this picture, try to deduce the changes in the second picture and why you should enter at those positions. If the details are not handled well, the problem of running short cannot be solved, and the loss of the firm offer is here. Leave a message to the followers of the wave theory: The market only needs five waves to reach a definite conclusion, and only five waves are useful. Eight Waves is just a beautiful misunderstanding to forcibly explain market behavior through observation. The N-word structure is even more nonsense, and the information has not been collected completely. Finally, a question is raised: How many kinds of conclusions can be drawn for abnormal changes in the market? That is to say, how many trading opportunities can be obtained by looking at the market with this logic?

Necessary conditions for system construction

MM platform ≠ black platform, STP platform ≠ good platform

胖松说汇1

In the foreign exchange market, it is often heard that a platform has obtained an MM license or an STP license, and in most people's minds, the platform with an MM license basically maintains the idea of "black platform". So do you really understand the difference between these two platforms? First of all, let's briefly talk about their definitions (not official definitions, just for easy understanding): STP platform: straight-through platform, which is to send your order directly to the bank and let the bank process your order. We commonly call it "sell the market". MM platform: a market maker platform, which will process investors' orders before deciding whether to sell them to the bank. It may also be for this reason that there is an alias for the "VAM" platform. So the STP platform is good, but the MM platform is not good? the answer is negative. Let's think about a problem first. The foreign exchange market itself is a "zero-sum game". That is to say, if you transfer money, someone will lose money, and if you lose money, someone will make money. So what you think of as "throwing the market" platform (stp platform) is just throwing it to a higher-level "opponent". From the above picture, we can clearly see that for our investors (retail investors, identified as customers A/B/C/D in the above picture), we belong to the bottom layer, and our retail investors can be mutual As opponents, retail investors and platforms are opponents, platforms are also opponents, platforms are opponents of general small investment banks (LP), and these LPs are also opponents. LPs and top investment banks (market maker banks) , such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citibank, etc.) are also rivals, and these top investment banks will also be rivals. Let’s spread the knowledge here. There is also a market among top investment banks. Only among them can communicate with each other, and ordinary retail investors are definitely out of reach, so I won’t talk about it any more. Haha, have you been dizzy by me? In fact, it is very easy to understand sentence by sentence with pictures. If you can understand this picture, then continue to look down. As mentioned just now, the orders on the stp platform are actually thrown to a higher-level "opponent", and there is almost no processing in the middle, so from the above picture, the orders on the stp platform are thrown to the LP. Let LP be your opponent. As for the MM platform, it will decide whether to allow customers to trade against each other based on the orders at the same time. drop), or between the platform itself and the customer as a counterparty, or throw the customer's order to a higher-level market. At this point, some people may say that there are very few people who can make money in this market itself, so wouldn't it be good for the platform to directly "gamble" with retail investors? This sentence sounds right, but for the risk control of a platform, such a risk control is the same as we do not set a "stop loss" in the transaction, it is actually a process of waiting for the "explosion". To give an example, when a large number of orders of the same direction and the same variety appear on a platform, if the platform takes all of them, then the direction of these orders is opposite to the market, and the platform will indeed make a lot of money, but if the direction is correct, then The platform will suffer huge losses, and even lead to direct bankruptcy. Another point is that in this market, the larger the platform, the more the number of bets with customers will be, and the smaller the platform, the smaller it will be. It is simply because the platform is small. less money. Going back to what we mentioned at the beginning, the foreign exchange market is a "zero-sum game", so no matter where your order is eventually "thrown", there is actually no difference in essence, because this market is like this, The higher-level opponents are the lower-level opponents. Even if your order is directly thrown to the banks of the top market makers, it is just that you are making opponents with these banks. In fact, you don’t need to pay too much attention to whether a platform is an STP license or an mm license, because most of the platforms that can be seen in the market now have positions A and B. Position A is for throwing to the market, and position B is for gambling of. Instead of being obsessed with the license issue of a platform, we should look at whether the platform is formally supervised, whether it has a high reputation, what is the reputation, what is the trading environment, what is the transaction cost and other practical issues. Let’s share it here first today. If there are Huiyou who don’t know how to choose a platform, you can leave a message below, and I will write another article dedicated to teaching you how to choose a platform. If this article is useful to you, please don’t be stingy with your praise, move your fingers, give me a “five-star praise”, and thank you everyone!

Foreign exchange trading thinking

God help those who help themselves, foreign exchange novice should be alert to the inside story of the industry!

chief sleep expert at ma jiao institute of technology

Mazhao has repeatedly emphasized in the article that even with the most conservative trading strategy, compared with any other industry, the potential income brought by foreign exchange margin speculative trading is at the level of huge profits, and this is its greatest charm. Just as blood attracts flies, huge profits attract scammers, who use all kinds of tricks to defraud traders of their principal. Because it is too difficult to achieve stable profits and continuous compound interest, some old fraudulent methods are slightly changed, and the cloak of foreign exchange trading can be used to make novices play around and contribute their hard-earned money willingly. Before achieving stable profits, novices in trading must first learn how to be alone in the magical world full of ghosts and monsters, not to follow the trend, not to be led by the nose. As the old saying goes, those who help themselves are helped by Tianheng, and those who are fooled and lame have a characteristic. They refuse to work hard, and they want to find a teacher, find a substitute, find EA, find the Holy Grail, and find everything outside of them to replace their own efforts. , trying to figure out a little capital to make it multiply like a mouse cub. The scammers take advantage of this, and use some cover-ups to win the trust of the trading rookies, thus playing with them. How do foreign exchange "teachers" gain your trust? Novices in trading have an obsession, "practice is the only criterion for testing the truth", whether the level is high or not, the result is the talk, as long as it can make a profit, shit is gold, as long as it can't make a profit, gold is also shit, and the greater the profit , the faster, the higher the level. Therefore, the "trading teachers" are particularly keen on showing his "profitability" : The first profit list , we often see some people suddenly post a screenshot on various communication groups, forums and other platforms, all of which are large profits. His trading records, the position is heavy and profitable, and he can't wait for this order to turn over the position, which can make the novice traders fall into the ground at once ; The second is to show the capital curve . Many professional "trading teachers" will always have several trading accounts with very beautiful capital curves. The third is to engage in market forecasting . Many trading analysts publish market analysis reports every day like doing tasks. The market direction and opening points are clear at a glance. Its foresight makes the novice traders suddenly have the idea of committing themselves to thieves in the mist ; The fourth is to build a call order group . There are some "teachers" who have more and more followers, so they build a call order group, so that traders can suddenly point out the heroism of the country in an immersive experience, and make a lot of money by copying orders a few times. You What is there to doubt? What do foreign exchange "teachers" want to do? Most of the foreign exchange "teachers" who can fool people are very knowledgeable. They know that there is something wrong with foreign exchange trading: the risk of trading is extremely high, and you can lose as much as you can earn, because novices will not believe it if they say it. If you believe it, you won't play anymore. Mazhu "teacher" has been admonishing friends, as long as you have a legitimate job and live a good life, don't touch foreign exchange, don't touch stocks and futures, trading is poisonous, be cautious, this is Mazhu The conscience of the "teacher". However, the foreign exchange "teachers" pretend to be confused with their understanding. All the show operations have only one purpose, and that is to make money without risk. Some of them cooperate with foreign exchange platforms, using technology as a gimmick to attract people to earn commissions, which is understandable; Agent, self-directed and self-acted, as long as you make money, it is like a wild boar falling into a trap and there is no possibility of survival. There are also some with private goods, such as selling systems, a trading system of 98,000, which claims to have a winning rate of more than 90%, and flips positions every month, as evidenced by backtest records, are you tempted? Selling courses, a set of courses is 98,000, and it is claimed that the winning rate is over 90%, and it turns over every month, and it takes two months to learn, with transaction records as proof, are you tempted? Selling EA, I will give you a castrated version first, let you earn some sweetness and start to lose money, and then tell you, the full version is 98,000, the winning rate is more than 90%, and the position is liquidated every month. Are you tempted? Selling traders, trading on behalf of customers, claiming that the winning rate is more than 90%, and the position is turned over every month. The profit is shared, and the loss is yours. There are customer cases to prove it. Are you tempted? There are also some traders who claim to trade after the bad, that is, trade with guaranteed capital, win a share, and lose money. Are you tempted? What is the truth? I believe that there are really well-meaning master traders in this world who will help novice traders out of public welfare and compassion, but you and I will never meet them. Because compared with the return of speculative transactions, any profit obtained by technology transfer is drizzle. When the stock operator Jesse Livermore was brilliant, publishers all over the United States asked him to write books and give lectures, and he scoffed at them. When he went bankrupt, he took the initiative to send a thick manuscript to the bookstore, and everyone regarded him as a wipe Paper. There is indeed a legitimate industry in the world that makes a living by training trading, and many novice traders do need systematic training. But relying on short-term surprise professors like summer camps, no one except geniuses can quickly learn to trade. The legendary turtle training class lasted only two weeks, but you don’t know that the young turtles traded with the old turtles for three years. For novice traders with ordinary qualifications, three months of theoretical courses, supplemented by one to two years of simulation or small capital real offer training, can be enough for entry level. But who would spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on a two-year trading course? And who can stably offer two-year trading training courses for the same group of people? So all the "trading teachers" you meet, no matter whether he is making predictions or calling orders, his purpose is definitely not to teach you trading knowledge. The means they use are just one sentence, ignoring the process, and using the results to confuse you . Huge profit orders can be hoodwinked, transaction records can be made, and even the glorious record of calling orders and trading on behalf of customers can be hedged with different accounts. You only look at the results, so you deserve to be cheated. Trading "teachers" only tell you how to make a profit, but they never talk about losses. They only tell you where to open a position, but they never talk about positions and stop losses. They are glamorous, but you don't know if their white buttocks are exposed behind their straight suits! Not even trading courses are designed to teach you trading skills. As the saying goes, a word is true, but thousands of books are false. The courses for training teachers are always all-inclusive. In fact, most things can be released at one time. They are just selling old wine with new bottles. And the more obscure things are, the more popular they are, because people subconsciously believe that things that can make a lot of money must be unpredictable. In fact, the things that really make money are often very simple means, and then they are repeated constantly. It can be explained in a few words. What traders really need is exercise, continuous training and mastering with the help and supervision of teachers, and getting rid of mistakes It is impossible to teach these things, and the teaching in a few words cannot be sold. Besides, EA, EA is like computer fortune-telling that was popular in the 1990s. A computer is placed on the street, and when you input your birth date, it will automatically print a fortune-telling result for you. EA is just using a computer to implement human strategies. Just as many people subconsciously think that computer fortune-telling is scientific fortune-telling, many traders also subconsciously think that EA trading is scientific trading. In fact, superstitious science is also superstitious, and you will be lame if you are fooled by science. The role of EA is to automatically find trading signals, if your trading signals can be quantified. Traders who use EA do not need to keep an eye on the market all the time, it will automatically help you find trading opportunities and notify you, but whether it finds opportunities or traps, traders need to judge by themselves. What I want to emphasize is that there is no mathematical law in the market conditions. It is wishful thinking to judge the trading opportunities with high winning rate through several parameters and execute them without thinking. EA has no emotions. It can only calculate a few parameters and will not judge trading opportunities. Whether it is reliable or not. Many guys who make a fortune by selling EA, their biggest ability is packaging and publicity, such as quantum trading, artificial intelligence, and what fashionable words to use, are actually very common trading strategies. Just imagine, if it is really like what they advertise, the winning rate is 90%, and they turn over every month. If they hang it up for a year, they will become billionaires. Why bother to sell the program? Have you ever seen someone sell a booming business in real life? All the transfers of Wangpu are definitely not the transfer of Wangpu. God help those who help themselves, the only ally of foreign exchange traders is themselves! Jesus healed people, touched the top of the sick man's head and said, "Your faith has saved you", so the lame could run and jump, the blind could see, and the sick man recovered. We mortals always fantasize about praying to the Lord God, and the Lord Jesus means that you can save yourself by yourself. Muhammad said that mountains cannot go to Muhammad, but Muhammad can go to mountains. The purpose is the same, but the prayer is never fulfilled. Trader friends, give up any illusions, there are only vultures staring at your carrion in the jungle, there are no gods at all. You have to rely on your own hands to explore, rely on your own eyes to discover, and rely on your own mind to think. If you trade well, you will realize it by yourself, Mianzai!

Leek Egg Noodles

Your thoughts and experiences regarding Gold as an investment

sharonjin

I've been contemplating adding Gold to my investment portfolio recently, and I'd love to hear the community's thoughts and experiences regarding Gold as an investment. Gold has a track record of providing solid returns, which certainly makes it an appealing option. I'd like to initiate a discussion on the following aspects of investing in Gold: - Investment Approach: Do you have exposure to Gold in your portfolio, and if so, do you prefer lump sum investments or a systematic investment plan (SIP)? Share your strategy and the reasons behind it. - Investment Instruments: There are various ways to invest in Gold, from traditional options like jewelry and physical Gold to more contemporary choices such as Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGB) and Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Have you explored any of these instruments, or do you have a unique approach? - Returns: It would be great to hear about the returns you've experienced with your Gold investments. How has Gold performed in your portfolio over the years, and do you see it as a long-term or short-term investment? - Liquidity: Liquidating physical Gold can be a bit more complex compared to selling stocks or bonds. If you've had experience liquidating Gold, could you share your insights on the ease or challenges you faced in the process? - Investment Considerations: What are some key points to keep in mind when investing in Gold? For instance, how do you manage storage and security concerns with physical Gold, or do you have any tips for those interested in ETFs or SGBs? Gold's unique qualities as a tangible asset and a hedge against economic uncertainties make it an interesting addition to an investment portfolio. However, like any investment, it comes with its set of considerations and trade-offs. Your insights and experiences can provide valuable guidance to those of us considering Gold as part of our investment strategy. Please share your thoughts, and let's have an enriching discussion on this topic!

Creator Studio

Ask
Post
Group

Go to Creator Studio

Recommended

Latest

Backtesting & Trading Stocks like a professional

Sichuan Huiyou Circle

FX BOSS COACHING - ADVANCED INSTITUTIONAL TRADER

Latinos/as Presentes

Shuffle

About Us User Agreement Privacy Policy Risk Disclosure Partner Program Agreement Community Guidelines Help Center Feedback