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Why do many people say that those who use naked k to make orders are masters?

江州司马

If counting from the world's first stock exchange, trading has gone through 400 years of rapid development, during which countless trading indicators and methods have been created, such as the classification of indicators that indicate trends, shock range, There are many more complex composite indicators for the relationship between volume and price. Without exception, they all want to find a ruler to gain insight into the state of the market at all times, so as to provide a basis for trading decisions. Many veterans will gradually abandon indicators, because indicators have the following problems. 1. Alternative No matter how complex the indicators are, they are inseparable from the basic data of price, time and trading volume, and all the relationship information of volume, price, time and space is contained in the most basic indicators such as k-line and moving average. Usually we only look at the k-line and moving average, and observe the shape of the graph, so we can grasp the general situation of the market. Just like we can use BMI (Body Mass Index, BMI is equal to weight divided by the square of height) to judge whether a person is fat or thin. But can't we judge fat or thin without BMI? Just by looking at a person's appearance we can tell whether he is fat or thin. Moreover, due to differences in personal physique, the content of fat and muscle is different, and sometimes people with a slightly higher BMI appear thinner. You see, things that can be done at a glance, why do you have to weigh the weight and height first, and then compare it after the calculation? Sometimes it's better to keep it simple. 2. Poor versatility The foundation of an indicator is its logical thinking, not the number it indicates. Complicated indicators generally need to set some parameters, and the status indicated by the indicator with different parameters will be completely different. Like many indicators that indicate the strength of buying and selling, due to changes in the market, the same set of parameters cannot always indicate the true state of the market, which sometimes leads to serious distortion of the indicators. As for the setting of parameters, there is no uniform specification, especially for the less commonly used niche indicators. Use depends entirely on individual needs. I use the moving average as an example, one of the most commonly used indicators. Common 5 days, 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, 60 days, 120 days, 250 days. Because the 5th of stock trading is a week, the 20th is a month, the 120th is about half a year, and the 250th is about a year. People use it more and it is a convention, and the parameters that everyone is using are more useful. Just like the k-line, if there is a daily line, use the daily line. If you don’t, you have to get a 2/3 day one. That's okay, just be happy. 3. Limited effect What exactly is the transaction doing? Where is the upper limit of technology? Trading is nothing more than a game. In this market, if there is a lot, there will be space, until one side stops the loss and the other side makes a profit. The role of technology is to reveal the game relationship and accurately locate the key game positions. As for how to operate, it has to be chosen by people. Sometimes when we reach a certain key position, whether to go long or short even ourselves will be contradictory. Should we listen to indicators that seem unreliable? The parameters of the indicator are not set by yourself. I think that most people who have been trading for several years will not rely too much on indicators. However, in a specific market, such as after a big rise and fall, I foresee a period of shock adjustment in the market. During this period, I use preset Trading with a certain indicator with good parameters may still have a high accuracy rate. K-line, moving average, and trading volume are all necessary, and others depend on personal habits. People who have been trading for a long time, at least have more experience, and their skills are not too bad. The probability of being a master is relatively higher.

The Historical Mission of Digital Currency

起止点

I have actually discussed digital currency with others many times. Until now, I still stick to my opinion. Digital currency is a technological revolution, and the object of its revolution is not currency, but currency symbols. Birth of the modern bank Paper money is not currency, but a currency symbol. Originally, paper money was simply a deposit of money stored in a vault. In the market, everyone gradually replaced the physical transaction currency with the deposit of the transaction currency. On the other hand, since everyone trades currency deposits, fewer and fewer people come to withdraw currency, and a large amount of currency is idle in the vault. The treasury owner secretly lends out the currency and earns a lot of interest. It was a blatant theft that turned out to be the bedrock of finance today. Later, after years of struggle, society generally approved this behavior. The treasury owner only needs to keep one-tenth or even less of the currency in the warehouse, and other currencies can be used for lending. This is called the fractional reserve system . This is of the same nature as Jack Ma's Alipay misappropriating users' funds. Depositors are deprived of ownership of their currency and are only compensated with a small amount of interest on their savings. This is how the modern bank was born. At this time, the deposit slips in the vault became banknotes. Since the birth of the bank, every pore has been full of sin and greed. It is the product of intrigue and stupid fornication, the origin of all human inequality for nearly 500 years. If, considering all banks in the world as a whole, the fractional reserve ratio is 10, then the banking system can create 10 times as much paper money as currency. No famous tyrant in history has ever had the ability to create money out of thin air, while banks enjoy the terrifying alchemy of wealth all to themselves. However, this is a helpless fait accompli. In the era of papermaking, paper is the carrier of human information transmission, and currency symbols are also a kind of information. Human society has no choice but to accept paper money. Now, times have changed, and the technology used by humans to transmit information has evolved from papermaking to digital transmission. And this technological advancement will sooner or later set off a revolution in the currency field. And the modern bank, which has been parasitic in human society for hundreds of years, will keep preventing the new currency king from ascending the throne. Types of digital currencies The current digital currency is divided into two types, pseudo-digital currency and digital currency. How to judge? All digital currencies that are based on the banking system and attached to bank accounts are all pseudo-digital currencies, which are essentially electronic banknotes. Kicking the banking system away and operating completely independently of the banking system is called a true digital currency. Of course, as a currency symbol, it must be logically self-consistent in the three aspects of bookkeeping, counting, and delivery. If it can't be done, then no matter how advanced the technology used in this currency is, there is no possibility of replacing banknotes at all. There is only one digital currency that can achieve these three points-gold standard digital currency. system of banknotes First, let's take a look at how paper money is logically self-consistent. Bookkeeping: banknotes are kept in bank accounts, and are cleared layer by layer through sub-branches, branches, and head offices. This system is very perfect. Counting: Banknotes are counted by both accounts and cash. When paper currency is used as an entity, it is cash in hand. When paper currency is used as a virtual symbol, it is a number on the account. Release: How to release the currency created by the central bank into the market? through commercial banks. Without the lending behavior of commercial banks, the currency will not be able to flow to the market. This is the paper currency system, and it is a very ingenious structure. It has two core mechanisms, accounts and fractional reserves. With these two core gameplays, a huge banking system has been created. The system works so well that it can even abolish the real currency, gold. At the same time, we can also come to the conclusion that any digital currency that has both an account and a part of the reserve fund in the gameplay is an electronic banknote. For example, the central bank is now launching this. The logic of a gold standard digital currency How can a gold standard digital currency be self-consistent? Bookkeeping: blockchain technology. Counting: digital encryption and decryption technology. Putting: Let me explain in detail how to put money into the market without a bank. Everyone's ID card is also your unique digital currency storage account. The ledger is placed on the Internet through blockchain technology. The central bank, or the Monetary Authority (Gold Authority), keeps the country's public gold reserves. This reserve is the anchor of the value of the digital currency. The HKMA buys and sells gold unlimitedly at a fixed price every day. Buying gold is to put digital currency in the market, and selling gold is to recover currency. So there are no banks in the market, how can you get a loan? In the future, everyone is a bank, and everyone can participate in a loan (just like buying and selling bonds), or borrow from the market. Of course, there will inevitably be a large number of rating agencies in the future to rate each loan project. The rating score is naturally related to the credit of the large ledger on the blockchain. Human beings are not inseparable from banks, but when and how they should leave. Of course, in this process, the pains of reform are trivial. The real resistance is the International Bankers Group. Abolishing banknotes and banks is tantamount to overturning all financial systems that humans have had for more than 500 years. All the material assets accumulated by the West will also be wiped out in this revolution. And they will certainly not sit idly by.

How to do a practical Martin strategy with limited funds?

little tiger brother

Can you do Martin strategy with limited trading funds? Any suggestions or ways to do it? I am a novice, and I want to try Martin's strategy with a small amount of money. I beg you to let me know!

What do you think is the most important thing if you want to make money in trading?

@彭于晏

Those who have no technology in the market cannot make money, and those who have technology but no goals cannot make money; To put it bluntly, doing transactions is to do risk control. If the risk control is not good, making money is only temporary, and sooner or later it will be returned to the market; the process of trading is a process of trial and error, knowing mistakes, admitting mistakes, and correcting mistakes. It is best not to do this Do not touch this market; The market is anti-human. If you don't have your own opinions and like to listen to other people's opinions, you will eventually be eliminated by the market. Learn to look at transactions with two eyes, one looking at the market, and the other always looking at yourself. The worst enemy in trading is yourself. If you want to make money, you must first defeat yourself, and defeating yourself is always more important than observing the market. "Experts are afraid of unilateralism, and novices are afraid of shocks." This is what we hear most often, so most traders die in shocks. In fact, no country's currency will always rise or fall in terms of currency exchange, so we have to face it Most of the correct ones are volatile market conditions. For those traders who want to make fewer orders but still grab a large profit margin, once the market enters a wide or narrow range of shocks, they will be completely at a loss, unable to stand the ups and downs of the market, and repeatedly enter the market-regret- Stop loss-exit-re-entry, after a few rounds, you will be tired if you haven't made any money. Those who like to do shocks die in the trend. In this market, they really want to be masters of shocks. They are obsessed with their own shock range, selling high and buying low, and never get tired of it. Suddenly, they are caught off guard by a unilateral market. The list is trapped in the market a little bit and can't do anything. The short-term people die in the sudden market. Most of the short-term people have just entered this market. They don’t know anything. They run away when they see a profit. If you have made money, once you encounter a sudden market direction and the direction is reversed, you will either look at the list immediately or carry it until the position is liquidated. This is the reason why most short-term people die. When they make a profit, they run away after making a little profit, and when they lose money, they lose all the profits of the previous half month. People who have been losing money die in random trading. There are two types of people here. One kind of people who just entered the market knows nothing and has no risk control concept. Because the market is ups and downs, the list goes in and makes some money and then it goes out. After a while, open positions and place orders frequently and randomly trade. The other kind of people are those who enter the market with a loss-making mentality that is completely broken. They only have the idea of returning their capital in their hearts. They always think about accumulating more and more, and place orders randomly based on their feelings. The final result is the same. You can’t do anything in this market. , Don’t think that if you don’t have the ability to execute, you can accumulate more, this kind of thinking will kill you. If you think you can make money with a method, then you are really wrong. If you survive in this market for more than a year, you will have your own method, but if you lose more than you earn, the problem will arise. Inability to defeat oneself and lack of execution ability. Many traders can't see the ups and downs of the market. They want to run away when the market retraces a little profit, but they can keep carrying it when they lose money. Go look at your transaction records to know where the problem is. More people die in refusing to admit their mistakes. The market is objective, and if the subjective conforms to the objective, it will make a profit; otherwise, it will lose money. Losses are normal, as long as you know and correct your mistakes in time. But many subjective people refuse to admit their mistakes. It is not terrible to make mistakes. Don’t admit your mistakes when you have a floating loss of 100, think you are unlucky when you are 500, and continue to increase your position with the market at 1000, 2000…3000, oh, you’re liquidated, you know your mistake, but it’s too late, your capital No, the capital for a comeback is gone. Don't die in the mouths of others without your own opinions. Many investors who don't have their own trading strategies are always listening to other people's opinions on the Internet and in order groups. If they listen too much, they don't know what to do. Sometimes Obviously what I did was right, but I closed my position and backhanded as soon as I heard what others said, which eventually led to losses. Why can't you make money with an 80% accuracy rate for calling orders, because no one teaches you position management and risk control. You don't have a trading system that suits you. After escaping the above misunderstandings, you basically have the foundation to survive in this market! 5 steps to help you get out of the confusion zone 1. Correct investment philosophy: There is nothing wrong with wanting to make money from the market, but before making money, you should think about how to avoid losses or reduce losses; 2. Reasonable risk control: as much profit as you want, there will be as much risk as you want, and the safety of principal in the financial market and risk control are the first; 3. Appropriate ratio of risk to report: Don’t do trades where you earn less and lose more. If you earn a little, you want to run away. If you lose, it is a taboo in trading; 4. Own trading system: establish your own simple, efficient and executable trading system and strictly abide by it; 5. Good trading habits: do a good job of trading according to the trading system, do not hesitate when it is time to enter the market, do not hesitate when it is time to stop losses, and do not speculate when it is time to exit the market. In the trading market, the most difficult and most important thing is to observe discipline! Because discipline is the guarantee of profitable trading! Rather than their own judgment on the market to decide. Crowe once said: In order to succeed, in addition to a consistent and effective strategy, three qualities must be possessed: discipline, discipline and discipline! Without discipline, even the best trading strategy is in vain. Strict self-discipline is the basic quality of a successful person. You can make mistakes in analysis and direction in futures trading, but you must abide by trading discipline. In fact, most of our losses are caused by lack of discipline. It is often a random order that loses all the previous profits. Therefore, it is the operating principle to put an end to random orders and deal with each order rationally. The more cruel the enforcement of discipline, the higher the possibility of success. If you do not follow the underlying rules and have no strong sense of discipline, you will undoubtedly be eliminated by the market! Strict and effective discipline must be based on a rigorous and effective trading system. Please believe in the trading system you recognize instead of your own market sense.

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How to choose a platform, can copying or calling orders really make money?

学而不厌诲人不倦

How do beginners learn foreign exchange trading? What are your suggestions?

connotation jokes tv

Thanks to the black little party for the invitation. For newcomers, especially when the subject describes himself as a college student, he is basically a novice. Many people want to "dissuade" directly when they see it, but I never persuade beginners like this. Not long after I came into contact with trading, I was known by a relative of mine. He has been a stockholder for more than 20 years. In general, it is possible to break even. He advised me not to engage in trading. From his firm tone, I felt as if I was committing a crime if I continued to trade. He told me a lot, and the past time is too long. I roughly concluded that the reason why I can’t trade is because it is too difficult, and if you are not a professional, there is almost no possibility of success. If you get jealous, you may go bankrupt and never turn over for the rest of your life. From the current point of view, what he said is right, but not entirely right. At that time, I did not listen to his advice to continue trading, and I suffered a lot later, which really had a great impact on my life, but this is actually the price on the road to success. If you want to get into a good school, you need a cold window More than ten years, not to mention such a difficult trading field. But I don't discourage newcomers. Why? Just imagine if everyone in all fields is persuading newcomers to retreat, then where is the progress of mankind? Isn't it because there are so many people of all kinds who are tirelessly fighting for it that we can achieve a highly developed state today? So I even said that I encourage everyone to try it, but there are prerequisites. The first premise, control. Everything you do must be controlled. When what you do is out of control and completely out of control, disaster may not be far away. This is especially true for trading, because newcomers, as the subject said, do not understand anything, so even if they are exposed to trading at this time, they must control themselves, from which aspect? First of all, it is easy to not make a firm offer. I have met many people. In addition to knowing how to buy and sell, how to set a stop loss, how to operate a pending order, where are the trading software indicators, and how to set parameters, they dare to make a firm offer. The market is not an ATM. , You are eager to enter the market not to make money, but most likely to send money. The second is that even if you are on a firm offer, your funds must be controlled. Only use 20% to 30% of your active funds, and never exceed 50%, because once this value is exceeded, your financial status will be in danger. It may get out of control. If you lose money, you will stud all your funds. If you lose again, you will even borrow and trade, and you may really fall into the abyss of eternal doom. It can be said that controlling funds is the most important thing for novices, because as a novice, it is almost certain that you will start to lose money, and controlling this part of "tuition fees" a little less will leave you with opportunities in the future and give you more opportunities. Leaving room for one's own growth is the most correct thing for novices to do. The second premise is professionalism. The major mentioned here does not mean that you must study related financial majors or engage in related jobs. It's about attitude, you have to be professional. Anyone who can achieve great things must have a professional attitude towards his related fields. I have met many people who have been trading for several years, ten years or even decades. The long-term trading time has not brought them much change. I am watching the market, but this is completely unqualified, not to mention professional, many people have been lingering outside the door for more than ten years and have not been able to get started. So what does it mean to be professional? The subject's description in the title can be regarded as the beginning of a professional attitude. First of all, we must figure out what foreign exchange trading is, and read some related books, such as Murphy's big blueprint, futures market analysis techniques. Then read technology-related books, such as candlestick theory, wave theory, Dow theory and so on. In fact, you may not use this kind of book in the future, but you should also read it. This knowledge is the basis for building a trading building, just like we need to learn mathematics and English well from the very beginning when we finally engage in computer technology. After reading these books, start to digest, and then verify by yourself whether the facts brought in the book are correct, such as the feasibility of candle chart patterns, the feasibility of wave theory counting waves, and the feasibility of Dow Theory's explanation of trends. When these basic skills are completed, the next step is to start reading some books on the systematic construction of trading, such as the turtle trading rules, trading for a living, the gift of the ghost, the road to wealth and freedom, and so on. This kind of book combines all the things in the transaction into a complete trading system. From it, you can see what the profitable and verified trading systems look like, and then start thinking about how to build your own. trading principles. This period of time is likely to be a qualitative leap for a trader, a key link to break through the door of trading, and a node for a trader to stand out and leave others behind. After mastering all these, you can read some trading biography books, such as the memoirs of a stock operator, Qing Ze's Dream in Ten Years and The Realm of Clearness, etc. This kind of book is the condensed life of an excellent trader. It can be said that people with different cognitive levels have different feelings when reading this kind of book. And people with top-level trading knowledge will realize their own trading philosophy in such books, which will almost complete their own trading building. If you want to be professional, you must keep learning. Continuous learning is an eternal topic in every field. The same is true for me, what should I do when I want to verify my trading system, but I don't understand computer programming at all? I had no choice but to study. I just learned computer programming in three months. I didn’t watch TV or swiped my phone every day and kept learning programming for at least three hours at night. Now there is no problem with simple trading system programming, and I also back-tested the data of the systems I built one by one, found out the shortcomings, and slowly tried to improve them. The subject of the topic is still a student, with great energy and strong learning ability. It is even more important to maintain this motivation to learn and improve yourself. In addition, I would like to give another suggestion to the subject. The subject said that he is still a student. You can trade, and you can also focus on trading, because it is a happy thing to devote energy to something you like. But you must also ensure your studies, at least let your grades pass the test, and don’t affect your graduation. This is how you do things. A side job can replace your main job, but your main job is still to learn your own major. Before it is replaced, you still have to do it well. Yes, not to mention that you are young and energetic, there is no problem with this. Are you satisfied with this answer?

How to judge the beginning and end of trend trading? Can you introduce the system?

tianji road

The so-called trend trading is what we usually call following the trend. So what does it mean to follow the trend? Going with the trend means that when the market trend is upward, then go long along the trend line; if the trend is downward, open short along the trend line; if it is a box arrangement, then sell high and buy low . Then, in order to follow the trend, there must be a trend first. What is a trend? The Dow Theory, the patriarch of technical analysis, defines it as follows: Under normal circumstances, the market does not go straight in any direction. The characteristic of the market movement is twists and turns. Its trajectory is like a series of successive, ups and downs, with obvious peaks and troughs. The trend is exactly the direction in which these peaks and troughs rise or fall in sequence. As these peaks and troughs increase or decrease sequentially, or extend horizontally, the evolution of their direction constitutes the trend of the market. Any trend will not appear out of thin air, it has a starting point and an end point. This area connecting the end of the old trend and the beginning of the new trend is what we usually call an inflection point! In this way, returning to the main question, the answer comes, how to judge the beginning and end of trend trading? In fact, how to grasp this inflection point is as simple as that! If you catch the first inflection point, that is the beginning of the trend; then you catch the second inflection point, that is the end of this round of trend and the beginning of a new round of trend. In a word, the trend continues before the inflection point (old trend), and the trend reverses after the inflection point (new trend comes). Refer to the figure. However, predicting the inflection point is often easier said than done, and it is very clear after the fact, and there are various entanglements in the matter. The most classic case is that a generation of master Benjamin Graham misjudged the beginning of the Dow’s upward trend in 1929. And the fact that it almost broke the warehouse. So, how can we grasp this inflection point well, or grasp the beginning and end of the trend? Personally, I think that the sharp tool for judging the inflection point lies in the technical form + wave theory. We know that there are two main classifications of technical patterns-reversal patterns and continuation patterns. Reversal patterns are true to their name, meaning that a major trend reversal is taking place, which is often the area where the turning point is located. The wave theory can divide the trend of the market by counting waves, and the junction of the impulsive wave and the adjustment wave is often the area where the inflection point is located. If the reversal signal in the technical form and the wave type boundary in the wave theory are combined, and where they overlap, then the probability of the inflection point is often close to ten. Combined with the direction of the wave type, then the beginning of a trend and The end is on paper.

Is your fundamental analysis sound?

微凉的天空

The rise and fall of the US dollar has a crucial impact on the currency market. Therefore, the fundamentals related to the dollar have attracted the attention of many traders. This time, we will use the US dollar as the starting point to talk about the blind spots that exist in the analysis of fundamentals. The first blind spot. There should be no objection to saying that the US dollar is the heart of the entire currency market. What is the heart of that dollar? It is estimated that many people will not be able to answer. The heart of the dollar is the five major money markets in the United States, namely the repurchase market, the commercial paper market, the certificate of deposit market, the short-term treasury bond market and the Eurodollar market. If the dollar wants to flow to the world, it has to rely on these five markets. The Fed has the closest relationship with these five markets, and money flows from the Fed to these five markets, and then flows to the world. It can be said that the five currency markets in the United States are the channels through which dollars flow through the world. We often say dollar shortage. What is the dollar shortage? That is, the world is short of dollars. What you need to know is that the dollar shortage can also be divided into chronic dollar shortage and acute dollar shortage. In short, the former is mainly caused by the relationship between supply and demand, that is, supply exceeds demand. For the latter, there are multiple possibilities. One of the possibilities is that there are problems in the five major currency markets in the United States, that is, the pipeline for the export of US dollars is blocked. March 2020 is the best example. From March to April, the Federal Reserve printed a lot of money, but why is there still a shortage of dollars? It is because of the problems in these five markets. So it is the heart of the dollar. What is the second blind spot? The relationship between overseas dollars and the US money market is unknown. For example, the interest rate of commercial paper directly affects the US dollar offered rate in London, which is the LIBOR rate. The third blind spot is not knowing the relationship between the overseas US dollar and the currency trading market. For example, foreign exchange swaps are the main tool for short-term US dollar financing. Without foreign exchange swaps, how would banks and asset management companies obtain US dollars? Where can I get US dollars? Of course, you can go to London to borrow money, find an American bank to borrow, and find a British bank to borrow. This is a way, but the cost is relatively high. For a company in Japan or China, it is the lowest cost to use RMB or Japanese Yen as collateral to exchange dollars. The fourth blind spot is not knowing the relationship between the currency trading market and overseas dollar-denominated assets. Why do we need a huge currency exchange market? Every country, including the official so-called sovereign wealth funds, holds tens of billions of dollars in assets, and the scale of the whole world is even larger, tens of trillions. With so many U.S. dollar-denominated assets and liabilities, we mainly rely on foreign exchange swaps in the currency trading market to provide short-term funding. Without this fund lending, the flow of funds will be cut off, and the US dollar and assets and liabilities will not be able to maintain, and they will all die. Therefore, short-term US dollar financing can only be obtained through foreign exchange swaps. Where does the financing in the foreign exchange swap market come from? Where did those dollars come from? Connect to the Eurodollar market through London, and then connect to the five major currency markets in the United States through the Eurodollar market. The logic in this is relatively complicated, but if you don't understand it, you don't know why. The fifth blind spot is not knowing the logical framework among the five chains from the Federal Reserve to the U.S. money market, then to the overseas U.S. dollar market, then to the foreign exchange market, and then to U.S. dollar assets. For example, if the national debt basis strategy fails, those who know how to do it will feel that the sky is falling when they see the news; but those who don’t understand will have no reaction at all. Why? Take March of this year as an example, if this strategy fails, it will involve trillions of dollars in hedge funds, and they will all be exhausted and leverage will be released on a large scale. What is the final result of unleveraging? As a result, the repurchase market in the United States was frozen, and the money in the commercial paper market was drained, and then the impact expanded. For example, Japanese pension funds could not get US dollars in Japan. Because the Bank of Japan, which provided it with U.S. dollars, has no way to raise money in the U.S. money market, and U.S. pension funds have exchanged their yen for renminbi and invested in China’s bond market. So I don't know that when a certain hedge fund fails, it will affect China's bond investment, because if it wants to unleverage, it will definitely sell a large scale of Chinese assets, whether it is stocks or bonds, it has to withdraw. The process of retracement involves exchanging foreign currency into yen, and then exchanging yen into dollars, so it will definitely cause the yen to shrink, and the yen will dry up. exhausted. Finally, another global dollar shortage occurred. This is the correct reasoning logic of fundamental analysis. Instead of jumping directly from cause to effect. For example, from March to April 2020, the Federal Reserve printed money on a large scale. As soon as the average person sees the news, it’s over, and 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars has been printed, and the U.S. dollar must be weak. The results of it? Is the dollar weak in March-April? A fall is a fall, but can you say it is weak? March-April is the worst time for the Fed to print money, but the US index is very strong. explain? Some so-called experts or teachers often talk about the fundamentals, such as the fundamentals of the Japanese economy, the fundamentals of the Chinese economy, how our exchange rate is, or whether it is a trade surplus or deficit. We are constantly in surplus, so how is our exchange rate? Or the balance of payments, look at China's capital account and financial account, we all have double surpluses. They are all tall, but at the same time fake and empty things. There is not much value for a real understanding of real-time forex trading as it happens. To give a simple example, the RMB depreciated to 7.19 on May 27, 2020. How to explain this matter? China's fundamentals have recovered. At that time, China had already resumed work. It was the earliest in the world and the best in controlling the epidemic. At the same time, the double surplus and the balance of payments are normal. Why did the RMB depreciate to 7.13 on May 27? Can this false big empty theory explain it? It is largely useless and largely ineffective for explaining markets as they occur in real time. What really needs to be understood is what went wrong with the US dollar circulation mechanism around the world at that time, and where is it stuck? In fact, such a depreciation in China is related to the yen. But most people don't think of going here. We not only need to know the conclusion, but also the whole process. Because with this system, you can think for yourself instead of listening to other people's blind analysis. In fundamental analysis, the most variable is the process. Some people may find some relevant data difficult to obtain. I think it's a bit far-fetched, let's figure out the transfer process or logic first. Otherwise, it will not be useful to get the data. If you keep track of the balance sheets of various countries, you can see a lot of things. Have you read it? The well-known free data website FRED can not only view the data that you can't think of without it, but also make any data comparison chart you want. For example, ADP and non-farm payrolls. In the past year, the statistical results of ADP were higher than the results of non-farm payrolls in most cases. Does this help the analysis of non-farm payrolls? Read it? Another example is that under the market panic shown by the VIX, the market’s choice of safe-haven products, only in terms of the nature of hedging, gold has the worst performance this year and is almost abandoned by the market, although gold has indeed risen sharply this year. But the sharp rise must be caused by hedging? Can not be other reasons? These things, make a comparison chart, at a glance. The clear data is there, have you read it? How many people say that gold's surge this year is due to risk aversion? Just because of the epidemic? Is gold the only safe-haven product? Fundamental analysis is not based on feeling, nor is it jumping directly from cause to result, ignoring the intermediate process. It is based on reasonable analysis and reasoning under a large amount of data. Especially the reasoning passed to the process.

Sky Forex Institute

I resigned yesterday, due at the end of the month, I want to do trading full-time, but I don’t know how far this road can go?

潇丶雲

foreword "Life is told at different times by people with different criticisms: you are still just a fool" The questioner did not share all of his own situation, but just threw out one: the idea of resigning and trading full-time. We all know that there are many great opportunities in the trading market, and there are even many famous sayings in the investment circle "Either a young model in the clubhouse, or go to work in the sea"This irrational golden sentence with a certain sense of humor also reflects that there are many irrational and fanatical traders in this market. Trading = making money? Trading = making money? Although it is superficial, it is true, but trading is not only about making money (there are many things to understand). I believe that many people who do trading only want to make money, and they have nothing to do with themselves after making money or during the process of making money. Is there any other fun to dig. The final result of blindly viewing trading as making money is that traders cannot get out of the vicious circle of the middle class . In the process of full-time trading, the author, like everyone else, just wanted to make money quickly at the beginning, and ignored the feelings of many people around him, and even became addicted to the trading road and derailed from real life. This is not advisable, because we are not robots, we have emotions and desires to release our nature occasionally, trading to make money is only part of our life, and when we first started full-time trading, the income fluctuations are very large and have a great impact on real life. To make money from trading, you need to invest the money you earn in yourself. Everything we do is investing in ourselves. It is the right way to solidify the return on investment and use these to expand your circle. Resign ? The questioner's resignation itself is a result of the boredom of his own work, and his work income cannot satisfy his inner desire. If you are still young, I highly recommend resigning. People must bravely step out of their comfort zone and their original circle, and go to the outside world to see poetry and distant places. For example: When the author used to work in a securities company, no one around me was better than me in stock selection or trading. Naturally, I will become a "salted fish" who can trade in this comfort zone. No goals, no competition, fishing every day. Going back to our real life, I believe that many elders who are older than us start to instill in you that it is good to be healthy, and it doesn't matter whether it is money or not. In fact, after I met some excellent entrepreneurs, I found that rich and capable people are thinking about how to make money all the time, while most of the "sub-middle-class people" who have been swept away by social waves are indoctrinating me. "Health is good, it doesn't matter if you have money or not." Those who are capable will naturally work harder, and they will increase their experience and improve their abilities while they are young. Therefore, my opinion on resignation is: resign boldly, learn more and get to know more powerful people. Full Time Trading I believe that many people must have a cognitive bias towards full-time trading, and there are many different choices on the road of full-time trading. First of all, when you choose the path of full-time trading, ask yourself: Is your trading systematic? What is a system? 1: Trading plan 2: Trading ability 3: Analysis and elaboration ability 4: Risk control ability 5: Asset management ability A trading plan is a must for a full-time trader. The market changes silently. Why establish a trading plan ? Because when establishing a trading plan, it is not only a profit plan but also a module for trend judgment, that is, if you judge that the current trend is downward, you should take good care of all the downward trend orders, and it is understandable to occasionally make a guest appearance in the multi-party market. Trading ability is the highlight of full-time trading, because this ability is to judge whether you can complete transactions independently and support yourself. So when you choose to trade full-time, ask yourself, can you survive by trading without all the assistance. Analysis and elaboration skills and risk control are actually relatively tasteless, but they are also one of the required courses. It was mentioned earlier that full-time traders have many directions. Simply relying on trading requires a lot of trading skills, and the nerves are very tight and it is easy to make mistakes. Another direction for full-time traders is to realize cash from lecturers or form a traffic circle. It is definitely more practical to make money lying down than trading. After all, these are passive incomes. If the abilities of the two are not well tempered, you simply cannot customize a trading module for the client. The asset management ability has risen to another dimension, and this ability is dispensable, purely depends on personal preferences. The questioner wants to know how far he can go in full-time trading, so first ask yourself what kind of abilities do you have above? If you are young and have the time cost of making mistakes, you can try full-time, because you will only be down-to-earth if you try. If you already have a family to you, don’t take this risk for the sake of your family. The road of full-time trading is very similar to the current trading situation: there are cattle casuals every day, and there are not many long-term casualties. Trading is a place to create wealth and create dreams. Ability controls money, and structure limits ability. Don't let yourself be a "salted fish" in your comfort zone. After a long time, the salted fish will not be able to swim and will not want to look at the sea. On the way to see the sea, you must learn to arm yourself. The crisis in the deep sea is ruthless.

When you find that your trading strategy cannot cope with the market, how can you improve your trading strategy?

i have a domineering name

Strategies fail for a variety of reasons. We know that the fluctuation range of daily commodity prices will expand or shrink as the economic cycle changes. For example, gold, HSI The first thing to do is to review the failure of the original trading strategy, whether it is because of the problem of the setting of stop profit and stop loss, or the failure of the strategy itself. If it is the former, it means that the strategy itself is effective, and only need to adjust the stop-loss spread, expand or shrink. If the latter, then the strategy itself has its drawbacks. Next you do a detailed review of the strategy. Ask yourself a few questions: 1. The failure of new varieties, or the failure of original trading varieties If the new variety fails, the transaction result of the original variety is still normal. Then the variety characteristics of the new variety are not suitable for this kind of trading strategy. You have to think about it, should you make appropriate adjustments to the varieties, or give up new varieties, and still have varieties traded forever? If the crude oil variety fails, there is no need to rush to deny the trading strategy. Review the trend of the recent variety, define the trend structure of the variety according to the "Wave Theory", and then correspond to your own strategy to determine whether the strategy cannot implement this type of candle structure. If so, you must supplement the original strategy or Re-statistical strategy, finely divided to clarify a certain type of candle structure that the strategy applies to. 2. The original strategy must be overturned This kind of situation is an inevitable and painful process for traders. I got up early and overthrew many trading systems. I was panicked after being lost, and finally became more and more frustrated. Soberly realize that the transformation of thinking is the most critical. Strategies must be refined, efficient, reproducible, and less analytical. Doing a firm offer is not an analysis, and a long speech is a taboo. The more processes considered in the analysis, the higher the failure rate of the order. Why? The market is ruthless. If you participate in too much analysis when making a trading plan, you must add a lot of personal subjective views. Knowledge will easily reduce the success rate of the strategy. This is the most essential difference between analysts and traders. For traders, one sentence can solve or avoid many methods that do not require thinking but can increase profitability. And analysts can say a lot of ideas, but they lack solutions that can solve profitability. Therefore, trading strategies are not a game of words. Refined, simple, less analysis, and reproducible, a trading strategy with these four points is half the success. You look back at your trading system, is it too complicated? Use more than 3 reference cycle charts, draw more than 3 lines, and take more than 10 minutes for the next transaction order? If so, then your strategy will not be used for a long time, and will still be eliminated by the market sometime in the future. 3. How to rebuild the trading system Reverse thinking is the most critical. l Deduce the cause from the result l give up before gaining l Be patient first, then seek profit l Multiple reviews, perfect and perfect If you can meet the above four points in your understanding of trading, then you are a big step closer to a successful trading strategy. 3.1 Naked K At this point, let’s go back to the origin: Naked K. From naked K, to candle combination, and then to candle form. The relationship and connection between these three must be clear. Comprehensively summarize the respective characteristics of these three, I am talking about comprehensively summarized characteristics, not those long-winded essays written in books, you have to know the core usage points of naked K, the core usage points of candle combinations, and the candle shape at a glance. Key usage points. Don't talk about morning star, hanging man, gestating line, rising flag, head and shoulders... Such useless classifiers, you must clearly recognize from the beginning to the end that you are not lecturing, you are making money for firm offers, It's nice to say but it can't tell the truth of the K-line, so it's useless. If you can't grasp the core usage points of these three, I suggest you concentrate on reading "Wave Theory" several times. Naked K skills are the foundation of your firm offer. Many analysts can't become traders because their bare K skills are too poor. Analysts can only go up or down. For a firm offer, it is necessary to set a reasonable entry and exit point, position placement, capital use, and flexible exit strategy. useless. 3.2 1 or 2 species You have been trading for a while, choose the variety, or a category of varieties, that you want to do most. Forex market: straight, cross Precious Metals: Gold, Silver, Copper Energy: crude oil, natural gas Stock Index: Hang Seng Index, Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, A50 Choose 1-2 of them. You have to do it first, let yourself have the most familiar variety in your hand, and use this as the basis to build a trading strategy. This variety is the foundation for you to make money in the future. Even if other varieties do not apply, you have continuous capital gains. 3.3 Reproducible is the rarest Trading strategies are reproducible. A large number of review and simulated warehouse inspections are the most effective methods. If you think that the simulated warehouse is useless, it means that your own mentality is immature, and the trading attitude determines everything. Breakthrough in the market, sell high and buy low, martingale, top-bottom divergence, overbought and oversold, etc. Any trading method needs to be improved and adjusted, and it must not be bookish. Review and practice are ways to combine theory with practice. You will find that among the many trading methods today, these four trading methods have been widely used. However, neither will inform the public of their respective improved methods. Therefore, making good use of these four basic trading theories, combined with your own situation, and improving it into your own trading strategy is enough to create wealth for yourself.

What is the core nature of the transaction?

jiaoyi golden eagle

For friends who do transactions, they often think or talk about a question, that is, what is the core essence of transactions? Some people say that it is to take advantage of the trend and light positions; some people say that it is to follow the intrinsic value; some people say that it is to break through the range and enter the market... What they said is correct, but these are only at the level of methodology, not the essence. The core essence of trading is the game spread. Why do you say that? Let's first look at what is a transaction? It is a sale, one buys, one sells, and when they are matched, it is a transaction. What is the purpose of our transaction? Just to make money. The process of a profitable transaction is to buy low and sell high, or sell high and buy low; the price difference is the profit. Whether you are in the stock market, the futures market, or the gold currency margin market, if you want to make a profit in a transaction, you must play the price difference and realize the profit! Even if many fans of value investing in the stock market want to make a profit, they still have to play with the price difference-buy low and sell high. Not to mention the highly leveraged transactions in the futures market and the gold currency market, which are also buying low and selling high; or selling high and buying low. Even for enterprises, factories, stores, and vendors, their profits are formed by the aggregation of price differences in each transaction, large or small. Therefore, the core essence of trading is always the game spread. Then the question comes, how can the transaction better realize the price difference? Or what is the key to making money in trading? When we talk about buying low and selling high (or selling high and buying low), we actually have to solve two problems—buying well (low) and selling well (high). If you don't know when to buy and when to sell, you will never be profitable. In other words, if you earn today and lose tomorrow, you always earn less and lose more, but you will never be able to make stable profits, or even survive in the market. For example, if you buy well but sell poorly, you will not make any money, or your profits will often shrink sharply. Or if you buy poorly and sell well, sometimes you can make some money, but the difficulty is greatly increased. Whenever the bull market is at the top, that is, when the market is the craziest, it is often when a large number of retail investors enter the market, and they are eventually trapped on the hillside or can only cut their flesh out of the market. The most fundamental reason is that if you don’t buy well, it’s hard to sell well. Therefore, it is necessary to buy well and sell well. In other words, the entry and exit must be just right. Everyone understands the truth, so how to do it? I have summarized the following 4 points to share with you, hoping to inspire you: 1. Build a system: build a trading system with positive expectations. 2. Formulate principles. 3. Observe discipline. 4. Constantly cultivate the mind and optimize the system. Let's look at the specific steps: 1. Build a system: build a trading system with positive expectations We all know traders who don't have a system, they trade by feeling when they trade. You ask them why they are long or short at this price, and the answer is always one reason today, and another reason tomorrow, with no consistency; what's worse, some people still have a blank look-they just feel that it is going to rise or go up. fell... The funds of traders without a system are like a mob. No matter how strong their funds are, they will be short-lived. It is only a matter of time. Systematic traders, on the other hand, have some rules when trading. Although they may not be able to make long-term stable profits, at least they have a consistent basis for entering and exiting the market. So what is a trading system with positive expected value? The so-called positive expected value trading system is a trading system that obtains a positive result after trading according to the system rules for a relatively long period of time. In other words, it is a trading system that has been proven to be stable and profitable. So how can we build such a trading system with positive expectations? Two ways: 1) Learn from someone close to you or someone you know--surely someone who has achieved success in this area and is willing to teach you. That is, this person is willing to teach you his trading system with positive expected value without reservation. This requires background, luck, fate, etc., which cannot be met. But this is a "shortcut". 2) Build it yourself. Since there is no such "master", then everything can only depend on oneself. But this is destined to be a road full of hardships and bumps. And the process may take a lot longer than you think. There are many ways to make a profit in trading, but countless people who use the same method to trade and lose money. Whether it is fundamental analysis or technical analysis, a system that can make long-term stable profits must include but not limited to the following three elements: * A set of methods. This set of methods is a tool for evaluating when to enter, exit and increase or decrease positions. * risk control. Various unexpected situations will inevitably occur during trading, and countermeasures must be taken to minimize risks in time. * Money management. It must be very clear what is the proportion of funds in a single trading position and what is the proportion of funds in a total position. These must be designed and allocated before the transaction. Good money management can help you survive in this market longer. When you have built these elements, the next step is to continuously test, verify, and then polish it into a profitable system through continuous trial and error. As for how to polish it, it depends on the method you choose and your personality. No one can do it for you, you can only rely on yourself. This process must have been accompanied by great pain and frustration... Until one day, you finally built this trading system. If you compare the trading system to a car, then congratulations, you have built yourself a sports car with superior performance, and you can drive it in dangerous situations. financial markets. 2. Formulate principles You may be thinking, can't I start the money printing machine now and collect money lying down? Then you are thinking too much. Even if you have the "Dragon Slaying Knife", you may not be able to become a martial arts master. Although you have built yourself a sports car that is much better than others, but think about it, in your daily life, can you drive this sports car on a rampage and run amok? By the way, no. You have to abide by the traffic rules, otherwise it will be difficult to guarantee that you will not be killed in a car crash! So in trading, even if you have a good system, you must also formulate trading principles. Trading with a system and no principles is not much better than having no system. Kant said: "Man makes laws for nature". You also have to legislate for the market . Just like the important role of the constitution in ensuring the stability and long-term stability of the country and society, your trading principles are the "constitution" of your trading system. This "constitution" is generated in conjunction with your trading system, it is the foundation of your trading system, and it is the fortress for your survival in this so-called "the most difficult industry in the world". In fact, you have already generated certain principles while building the system, but these principles are not specific enough and comprehensive enough. Now it is a comprehensive formulation of principles at the strategic level. For each position you trade, under what circumstances you can enter the market, under what circumstances you must exit the market, under what circumstances you cannot enter the market, under what circumstances you need to reduce your position, etc.; clearly formulate the principles in all aspects, the more specific and more accurate you are. The clearer the better. When we review the market, we always feel that the market is so clear at a glance; but at the moment, the market is always changing, and we always feel specious and ambiguous, don’t we? Through trading principles, a lot of market noise can be eliminated and the trading winning rate can be improved. Emotions also often influence our behavior. Think back, how much loss, loneliness and pain have you endured wandering alone between heaven and hell? How many sleepless nights have you passed? In the depression and anger again and again, the transaction is made worse... Trading principles can also eliminate emotional interference and make transactions more rational. When you have formulated a comprehensive trading principle, you will find that the frequency of your trading has become lower, which is a good thing-the door to wealth has been opened to you! 3. Observe discipline Now you understand very well that as long as you make good use of the trading system and enter and exit the market according to the principles, you can make stable profits. From now on, you can sit back and relax! Then you underestimate the weakness of human nature - greed and fear ! We stare at the board every day. The red, green and green K-lines represent wealth, and there are devils and angels hidden in each line. They constantly lure us: "Come in, this wealth is yours. !", constantly tempting us to break the trading principles to enter and exit the market... You may ask, will the principles you set up not be followed? Think about it, how many New Year's resolutions, reading plans, and fitness plans have you made? How much did you do again? So we need to be disciplined. There is a system and principles, but if you don't follow the discipline, your funds will only be relatively short later. Because every mistake you make could be fatal and set you on a path of no return! In trading, to put it simply, discipline is execution. Once the principles are formulated, they must be strictly enforced. This requires us to be highly self-disciplined. Execution, or how to cultivate self-discipline? You can use the little things in life to cultivate, such as what time to go to bed every day, when not to use your mobile phone, or to implement a fitness plan, etc. "If you don't sweep a house, why sweep the world?" When you develop iron-like executive power, you can clearly see the wealth behind the door beckoning to you! 4. Constantly cultivate the mind and optimize the system 1) Constantly cultivate the heart Don't expect to be able to roam the rivers and lakes after learning a nirvana. People who can really walk the rivers and lakes and stand tall for a long time may not have many nirvana skills, but they must be people who have been practicing internal strength for a long time and then have deep internal strength! The inherent human weakness of human beings cannot be overcome by us in one or two years. How many talented traders finally came to a tragic end because they could not overcome their own demons... The examples of Livermore and Nick Leeson sound the alarm to us from time to time—traders who don’t pay attention to cultivating their hearts will repeat the same mistakes from time to time. Even if they have excellent equipment, they only live a little longer . Constantly cultivating the heart is the homework that every trader must do in his life. 2) Continuously optimize the system The market is like a living body that will continue to evolve. Institutions, consortiums, traders, retail investors, etc. participating in the market are playing a game of survival of the fittest, and those who can finally stay in this market are elites who are constantly learning and evolving. Therefore, we must continue to learn and optimize our trading system to adapt to the continuous evolution of the market. (It should be noted that optimizing the system is not transforming the system. Optimizing is taking a little bit of measures to make it better; transforming is hurting muscles and bones, and often the gains outweigh the losses.) "Heaven is healthy, and a gentleman strives for self-improvement." A trader who can make stable profits in the financial market must be a person who has done a good job in the above four aspects, and is still learning and evolving. — final words — You may be a little worried, why is it so difficult to make money from trading? Yes, it is so difficult to make long-term stable profits in this market, and this is the only way to go. Or, you don't enter this market. Making a living trading has never been easy. We are fighting in the market with a kitchen knife and troops with submachine guns. In addition to learning to hide and protect ourselves, we also need to learn to wait, be willing, etc... When the market does not give you a chance, you must endure loneliness and suffering; when the market gives you an opportunity, don't doubt or feel anxious, but act decisively and go forward; when the market does not give you a profit, you must react quickly and immediately Admit the compensation; when the market gives you a profit, accept it as soon as it is good, and don't try to let the tail of the fish go. Trading is like life condensed. When you realize the true meaning of trading, you also understand the true meaning of life. Trading makes life more profound and exciting! Let your mind be more free!

Jiaoyi Golden Eagle Exchange Circle

How to deal with the problem of trend deviation between different cycles?

bentley is so cute

The core element of price movement is time, and the cycle is the most important in the form of time, and the relationship between price trends and cycles follows certain laws: ①. The general price trend is formed by the unity of opposites of different periodic trends. The large-cycle trend is the main aspect of this pair of contradictions, and the small-cycle trend is the secondary aspect of this pair of contradictions. ②. The small cycle is changeable, leading, and the duration is short, and the room for price fluctuations is generally small; the large cycle is stable, lagging, and the duration is long, and the room for price fluctuations is generally large. ③ The large-cycle trend is composed of several small-cycle trends that rise, fall, or sideways oscillating movements. The general price trend is determined by the large cycle, and the reversal of the large cycle is first reflected by the small cycle. ④. Small-cycle and large-cycle trends run in opposite directions. The short-term market runs in the direction of the small-cycle trend. The large cycle restricts the duration of the small cycle and the room for price rises and falls, forming a slow rebound or callback in the small cycle. ⑤. If the small-cycle trend is consistent with the large-cycle trend, different cycle trends will resonate, and the combined forces will be superimposed and magnified, resulting in a rapid rise or accelerated decline. Therefore, on the K-line chart, it becomes the normal state of the market that the trends of different periods are contrary to each other. In a specific transaction, dealing with this kind of inter-cycle trend conflict also varies from person to person, and it depends on what type you like. Here we use the moving average indicator to give a solution. For example, there is only one direction of the current K-line, but the directions of the moving averages of each cycle are inconsistent: on the 55-unit moving average, the daily line, 30-minute line, and 15-minute line are all up, while the 3-minute and 1-minute lines are down. Which moving average direction is the operation to take for trading? According to the principle that we can only enter the market when the moving average and the K-line are in the same direction, then the cycle we can operate can be: long on the daily line, short on 1/3 minute. If you are long-term at the daily level, that is correct, but you can also go short within 1/3 minutes of the market. From a short-term upward analysis, the formation of a 1-minute trend will inevitably cause a turning point in the 3-minute graph. And when the 3-minute 55 moving average goes down and forms a trend, you can ignore the 1-minute fluctuation. Furthermore, when a trend is formed in 3 minutes, a turning point will inevitably be formed on the 5-minute graph. A 5-minute trend will inevitably result in a 10-minute turning point and trend reversal. After the turning point and trend are formed in 10 minutes, a turning point must be formed in 30 minutes. Here, after forming a turning point in 30 minutes and breaking through the 55 moving average, there is a high probability that it will cause a 30-minute downward trend. There has been no downward trend a few days ago, so the daily moving average is still upward, and the K line is downward during consolidation. Looking at the entire moving average system, from the 1-minute turning point forming a trend to the 3/5/10/30 minute turning point, the best strategy is to hold short. But in fact, there is a period of rebound in the middle. After the trend is formed in 5 minutes, the 3/5/10 minute moving average and the K line have a period of opposite. When 3/5/10 minutes there is a two-line contradictory market, if you are long-term, you can ignore those fluctuations and hold short orders, just like holding long orders on the daily line above, and holding short orders on small minutes. . If it is short-term, then an upward trend will be formed in 1 minute. In the 3/5/10 minute two-line conflict market, according to the principle of not entering the market when the two lines are inconsistent, you cannot hold empty orders. In fact, it can also be seen from the above that the multi-period moving average is different. It is also a small period that slowly affects the large period, the small period goes up, the big period goes down or the small period goes down, the big period goes up, or pulls back or reverses, These all start with small cycles.

How to find a valuable trading strategy?

阿土

I share a break-even trading strategy , which I haven't used yet. If there are big guys who have used it, we can chat. Trading Strategy 1 It is said to be a secret break-even trading strategy . It can bring up to 50% profit per month, and in the first few days of use, it can increase deposits by 5-10%. The essence of the strategy is to find a certain number-price channel on the currency chart . This model has been well documented. Any trading system does not need any indicators. All one needs to do is find a price channel, then wait for it to break down, set a price for that, and enter the market. Under the following rules, this strategy becomes a win-win: ① It is recommended to choose a time interval - one hour (H1); ② Two ascending vertices should be formed on the graph - one above the other; ③ Transition to D1 and find two incremental vertices (if necessary); ④ Connect the points and expect failure. This is the signal for a deal. It is worth mentioning that the direction of the trend can be ignored. ① Wait for the subdivision to happen on H1 down and open a transaction to sell after the rollback; ②You can wait for the following retest and sell; ③ If further confirmed by disagreement, the entry point is strengthened; ④ The stop loss must be set approximately equal to the distance of the price channel; ⑤ Fixed profit when the price moves in the right direction by a distance equal to two stop losses. Trading Strategy 2 The next win-win strategy for trading deals is called "Master Stars". If you open the charts EUR/AUD and AUD/USD for comparison, you can see their mirror images with the naked eye. On this property of these currency pairs, this trading strategy will be built. It provides simultaneous opening of two orders: EUR/AUD to execute buy, and AUD/USD to sell. A trader's position should be held until the trend returns to the general trend. Once completed, both trades will bring profits to the trader. For best results, consider the following: ① A certain time frame in this system is not interesting. You can enter the market on any of them. ② After more than 20 points in the correct direction, determine the suggested profit; ③ No stop loss is set, if the price goes to the other side, another order is opened; ④ After profiting from a transaction, it is worth opening a new transaction in the same direction; ⑤ A maximum of five orders may be opened. If the price goes against it, after 120 points a new parameter will be opened with the same parameters as the previous one. If the price again exceeds 120 pips against the trader, a third trade is made in the same way, and so on up to five trades; ⑥Consider the news, if you want to receive important news, do not enter the market; ⑦ Simultaneously, only the first orders of two currency pairs are opened, then it is necessary to consider the schedule of each currency pair separately; ⑧Before buying or selling, it is necessary to analyze and determine the general trend, slope angle and other important indicators, which will become another signal to enter the market. money management We all know that in order to minimize losses, one strategy alone is not enough. Fund management and sober assessment of risks in transactions are very important. Without this, any strategy can run out of deposits. Management is an important part, without which, the breakeven system will not function properly. It is important to observe the following rules: Enter the market in small quantities. It is necessary to rely on the number of deposits to calculate their size. Each trader decides how much he is willing to risk on each trade, but it is recommended not to exceed 5% of the deposit amount; The choice of leverage should be no less than 1:100 and no more than 1:500; Other transactions can only be carried out if the first transaction can withstand the withdrawal at a rate of 1000 points; Follow the clear instructions of the strategy and don't make decisions guided by emotions. It is possible to actually reduce the loss to zero. Above are the management policies and rules that will help to achieve this goal. Everyone decides which trading system to choose. The important thing is that thanks to any of them, you can achieve excellent results and, as a result, permanent profits.

After achieving stable profits for several years, what are the biggest obstacles or points that you need to break through in your current trading?

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Thank you sga for the invitation. Trading is actually a field that has a starting point but is not easy to have an end point. As for the profit for a few years, it is actually nothing. A qualified trader must always tighten the string of risk. If we have to talk about a bottleneck period that may be encountered for many years of profitability, I think it may be a sudden loss. Everyone has emotions, and everyone can't bear losses, especially after making profits for a long time, suddenly there is a period of losses or profit taking. I think this is also the biggest test for a trader. I myself have encountered a retracement period of up to seven months. I am now focusing on futures, so I prefer to refer to the amount of funds as equity. After my equity broke through a new high, a period of not long and not short winter came. , After this new high, there has been no new high for seven months, and the equity curve has been zigzagging downward during this period. I understand in my heart that this is the result of the market not being suitable for my trading system. My own system is a trend trading system. The curve should be downward, but after all, it is really uncomfortable when it has been retracement. At the beginning of the three-month retracement, I was okay. Although it was uncomfortable, I could still bear it. But when the retracement was five months old, my emotions began to become unstable. I even wondered if this time it would really fluctuate. To death? Do I need to make a change? Or should I stop trading now? So I started to use my advantage of writing statements to start backtesting historical data crazily to see if the worst time in history would be worse than this time. The backtesting function of Wenhua Finance wh8 is very good. It can count all kinds of statistical data. The value of the maximum retracement and the time period of occurrence can all be clearly displayed. The result of the backtest is that in the last ten years, my combination of varieties and the system will not reach new highs for as long as ten months. When I backtested these data, my real equity had not reached a new high for nearly six months. This backtest result gave me both comfort and panic. The comfort is that I have not yet reached the harshest winter. What about the harsh winter? Doing anything may encounter bottlenecks, and the bottleneck of my trading this time is that I have a strong anxiety about continuous retracements. But once you break through the bottleneck, you will enter a new world. The biggest feeling I realized during this bottleneck is that "winning against loss" can be said to be the core of a transaction. In fact, I did not do very well in terms of profit, loss and contraction. Of course, there are subjective reasons and objective reasons for this. The objective reason is mainly because the margin of domestic futures is relatively high. A large amount of funds, if the amount of funds is small, it is easy to talk about winning, but for losing and shrinking, at least one hand is required. Once there are too many varieties, there is no way to shrink. So I thought about this issue for a long time, and finally I made a decision to reduce the trading variety when the equity retraces by 30%. This is the biggest choice I can make in terms of loss and shrinkage. In a random way, whichever one comes out first will not open that variety directly. Because the future market cannot be predicted, I can only randomly reduce it to the variety. Fortunately, my trading started to pick up after the retracement to 27%. After seven months, it reached a new high again, and there was nothing that made me want to be caught. The situation of forced reduction of species. I said at the beginning of the article that it is actually nothing to be profitable for a few years. This is the reason, because the future is uncertain and anything can happen. Prepare for the worst at all times and stick to it. If you have been trading If we stay in the market, the terrible market or data we have seen before will definitely strike again at some point and even be more powerful, so it is not important to laugh now, it is important to laugh until the end. Are you satisfied with this answer?

What is trading cognition, and what are the trading cognitions?

几孤风月

Isn't trading cognition just the cognition of trading? Everyone is different, so it's hard to say exactly what these cognitions are. Cognition is a process. When you first come into contact with trading, it can be said to be a blank sheet of paper and you don’t understand anything. If you trade directly, there will be a result: a big loss and a liquidation, or a sudden profit and then a loss. In fact, it is a loss in the end. The second stage is when you start to really learn to trade. At this time, you think that trading needs to learn a lot of knowledge and technology, so you start reading books, looking for indicators, templates, strategies or EA. Anyway, you want to know everything about trading. But no matter how much you learn, how many indicators and techniques you acquire, it seems that you still cannot make stable profits. The third stage is to realize that the market is actually a game of probability. After understanding this, you will no longer worry about which technologies are easy to use and which strategies can perfectly adapt to the market (which does not exist), but you know that it is just a probability. You no longer insist on making money on every order, but just know that the profit will eventually be greater than the loss. The last stage is the mentality and money management stage. When you understand the operating laws of this market, you will realize that only by maintaining a good attitude and prudent capital management can you ultimately succeed. A virtuous circle is: Confidence --- self-discipline --- profit --- pride --- self-confidence The vicious circle is: Profit---violation of strategy---loss---frustration (emotional loss)---big loss Therefore, after the above four stages, if we can move towards a virtuous circle, then we can gain a foothold in this market.

How to choose between opening a position through a breakthrough and opening a position with a pullback in trading?

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"GBP/AUD Exchange Rate: Recent Recovery and Future Prospects"

warren

The GBP/AUD exchange rate is showing promise in the short term, recovering from oversold conditions that emerged in September. Traders are closely monitoring key support and resistance levels as well as upcoming economic events that could impact the currency pair. Key Support and Resistance Levels A significant support level at 1.8850 is expected to provide substantial support in the event of a British Pound (GBP) selloff. On the upside, resistance is relatively limited until around 1.95, which may become relevant if the Pound exhibits strong performance. Australian Developments In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Assistant Governor, Jones, is scheduled to deliver a speech. This speech could offer insights into the possibility of a future rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Signs of tightening monetary policy in response to China's improved economic data and strong domestic activity have the potential to boost Australian bond yields and support the Australian Dollar (AUD). Additionally, the release of the minutes from the RBA's recent policy decision will provide further clues about the central bank's stance on interest rates. Australian Employment Report One of the week's highlights for the Australian Dollar is the employment report, which is anticipated to show a gain of 20,000 jobs. A positive employment report can strengthen expectations of an RBA rate hike and provide support to the AUD. Chinese Economic Data Australia's economic performance is closely tied to China, and Chinese economic data has a significant impact on the Australian Dollar. Chinese GDP figures for the third quarter are highly anticipated, with expectations of revealing a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4%. An uptick in Chinese economic activity could benefit the AUD. UK Data Releases The upcoming week is eventful for the UK, with a slew of data releases on the calendar. These releases include labor market statistics, inflation figures, and retail sales data. Market Reaction to UK Data The market's response to UK data will be closely monitored, as earnings and changes in employment levels can indicate the direction of UK inflation trends. Key data to watch includes Average Weekly Earnings and the unemployment rate. Inflation Outlook Inflation figures for September are a significant focus, with expectations of a year-on-year decline in headline inflation. However, the month-on-month reading is anticipated to have risen due to increasing fuel prices. Soft inflation data in September noticeably affected the Pound, and a similar undershoot in October could potentially place pressure on GBP/USD. Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales The end of the week will see the release of consumer confidence figures and retail sales data in the UK. While these data points are of interest, their impact is expected to be limited, given the significance of earlier wage and inflation data releases. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the GBP/AUD pair is currently displaying a bearish trend on higher timeframes. The recent pullback appears to have completed, reaching a confluence zone of previous support that may now act as resistance. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level adds to the significance of this area. The price is currently moving within an ascending wedge pattern, which suggests a potential downward breakout. Traders are closely monitoring this zone for a suitable risk-to-reward ratio for a short position. In conclusion, the GBP/AUD exchange rate is poised for a positive short-term outlook, but it remains subject to developments in Australia, China, and the UK. Technical analysis also points to a possible trend reversal. As traders navigate these factors, the currency pair's direction in the coming days will likely be influenced by a combination of economic data and market sentiment.

Warren's Trading Titans

Have you ever encountered a situation where the platform does not give money? How should I get back my own handling fees and commissions?

一生一世烟火迷离

First of all, sympathize with what happened to you. The fact that platform operators cannot withdraw funds is disgusting, but it is undeniable that this is a common occurrence in the current industry, especially in some small-qualified platform companies. If the platform provider refuses the withdrawal request, there is a high probability that the funds may not be returned. It is recommended that you report to the police and file a case in time, and seek legal assistance from the police. However, don’t hold out too much hope. Such companies generally have foreign fund accounts, and the funds are usually transferred to foreign countries at least Hong Kong immediately. Therefore, such cases are all transnational cases, and the public security department needs to investigate, execute and handle the case for the time being. will be restricted. Regarding the return of handling fees and commissions, I think that if the principal cannot be recovered, there is little hope for these two items. The foreign exchange market is still in a gray area in China, lacking laws and regulations and government supervision, and many people take advantage of its industry defects to do illegal and criminal things. Therefore, it must be an extremely prudent and wise thing to choose a trading platform. Don't be careless and transfer your real money into other people's bank accounts for nothing. At present, there are four common foreign exchange regulatory agencies, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. Among these four countries, the United States has the strictest regulation, with a maximum leverage of 20 times, which is generally applicable to the Chinese market. The second is British regulation. For platform operators, we may pay more attention to the country where the license belongs to but ignore the type of platform operator's license. There are mainly the following types of UK licenses: l STP - bank quotation l MM——Market Maker Quotation l ECN——Electronic Quotation l EEA - the European Union I will help you understand the difference between these four license plates in layman's terms, so that you can distinguish them. 1. STP license It is a quotation method that has emerged in recent years. Platform operators can hold client funds. This is an agency method allowed by the British regulatory agency, but there are certain higher requirements for the qualifications of agents. Platform operators connect with foreign banks, and foreign banks then connect with exchanges. Therefore, the quotations from exchanges to foreign banks, to platform operators, and finally to you must have price differences and fluctuate. There will be a time difference, which constitutes a certain dot situation. Advantages of STP: Because of the supervision of both British institutions and the restrictions and audits of foreign banks, this type of agents are relatively well-qualified and authentic, which ensures the safety of investors' funds and the safe access to funds. account. Disadvantages: Due to the requirements of bank supervision and capital volume, the transaction cost is higher than other transaction methods. 2. MM license This is a market maker license. The market maker license directly connects to foreign exchanges, and platform operators can hold client funds. This is an agency method allowed by the British regulatory agency. On the other hand, this is also the root cause of some platform operators going astray and misappropriating customers' funds, thus committing crimes. Therefore, when choosing a platform company with an MM license, it is recommended that you be cautious and try to choose a high-quality platform, which is the greatest protection for your funds. Of course, because of the direct connection with the exchange, the cost of each transaction will be relatively low, and the frequency of marking is very small. 3. ECN license The quotation method of this license plate is electronic quotation. That is to say, each customer's transaction order is directly connected to the buyer and seller through the network, and the platform provider does not take over the customer's funds. This delivery method is very popular now, because the platform provider does not touch the client's funds, which protects the traders' funds from loss. However, the disadvantage is that the dots are serious. After the buyers and sellers of the electronic platform are selected by the network, the market will fluctuate accordingly, and there will be new quotations after the transaction between the two parties. Therefore, dots are often caused. 4. EEA license This license is a transitional agreement temporarily signed after the UK and the EU leave the European Union. Because the United Kingdom is the main financial trading country in European countries, the Brexit referendum has had a considerable impact on the financial industries of the United Kingdom and the European Union. In this context, the EEA guarantees that traders, especially those from European countries, can trade normally on the London Mercantile Exchange Transitional agreements entered into. Comprehensively commenting on the above four British license plates, it is not difficult to find that each has its own advantages and disadvantages. I hope you can choose a platform provider based on your own capital situation and trading strategy preferences. As for Australia and New Zealand, I personally do not take it as my own consideration. I hope the above content can be helpful to you. To do transactions, you must understand all aspects, especially matters related to funds.

What do you think are the core competitiveness of a good broker?

lumnary

In my understanding, in mainland China, when the Chinese government has not supervised the currency platform, tell me, what is the core key that you are most concerned about when choosing a currency platform? If my judgment is not wrong, nine out of ten, everyone will choose the safety of funds. Well, when doing transactions, everyone is very concerned about their own funds. When doing transactions, whether there is every transaction and whether the funds are circulated into the international market. Among them, whether each transaction is effectively supervised or not is what our domestic traders are most concerned about (fund security) without government supervision. Then some people may say that the platform I make is subject to the most stringent regulations in the world. I don’t have to worry about the strict regulatory agency FCA’s full license regulation. Speaking of this, I really want to say, do you really believe that the contract you signed is regulated by the FCA? The real FCA-regulated platform accounts can enjoy claims insurance protection, which is the core competitiveness of a broker. Risk situation 1: The platform has an FCA license, but your account is not opened in the UK. Such incidents are relatively common. Due to the planning of the broker's market sales area, the Chinese market may not be assigned to the broker and the British company, but to other regulated companies. This type of broker has a characteristic that the websites they use are used by groups, not individually regulated companies. For example, ironfx, ironfx has multiple licenses around the world, but ironfx.com is owned by IronFX Group. You can see that there are many regulatory numbers written below. But if you open an account directly through their official website, you may open a Cyprus account. If you open a Cyprus account, your funds have nothing to do with FCA supervision. The problem is only related to ironfx Cyprus company and Cyprus supervision. Therefore, when opening an account, the website owned by such a group must be clear about the supervision under which the account is opened. how to do? It's very simple, that is, when opening an account, there are terms of agreement, which are the contract for opening an account. In the contract, there is the name of the company that opened the account, and the supervision number corresponding to the name, that is, what control your account is under. Risk situation 2: FCA regulated platform, your account opening is not through the official website, but a similar website For example, if you open an account, the website reserved by the broker in FCA is xxx.com, and the domain name of your account is xxx.com.cn, and the website page is only in Chinese. However, logging in to xxx.com cannot switch to the website of xxx.com.cn. When logging into the customer background of the website, it is still not the domain name of the broker UK. At this time, you have to pay attention, it is very likely that xxx.com.cn is trying to sell dog meat. Your account is opened under other regulation, not UK regulation. Risk situation 3: The platform itself is regulated by FCA, and an account is opened through the office, but after the account is opened, there is no supervision. Such platforms, even professionals, may not be able to understand them, which are typical violations of regular brokers. Normally, if you open an account through a regulated company, your account must be regulated by the regulatory agency. But what if you open an account not through the only official website? How can you confirm that your account is absolutely regulated and protected? £50,000 deposit insurance coverage? You check the following points, all are indispensable 1 The broker must have a full UK FCA regulatory license. (*authorized, *allowed to hold and control clients’ funds, *has a currency retail business license, *supports retail clients) 2. Account opening is through the URL of the regulated company on the FCA website. 3. When opening an account, there is an intention to agree, and the account opening contract and certain names in it are exactly the same as the names regulated by FCA. Not even one word less. 4. In order to ensure extra security, it is recommended that the customer service or account manager you contact work in the UK, not other places. For the above four requirements, the first three must be met, and the fourth must be met as much as possible. In this way, your funds are 100% regulated and protected, and you can enjoy the £50,000 deposit insurance protection provided by FSCS. Additional note: After July 30, 2018, all UK brokers must comply with ESMA regulations, and the foreign exchange leverage of retail customers shall not exceed 30 times. So if you open an account that is greater than this leverage, then obviously, your account will not be a UK account and will not be protected by FSCS. But we also noticed that after the customer upgrades to a professional customer, the leverage is not limited. Will also enjoy fscs protection. You should know that a professional account must provide a professional certificate. Among the materials provided, it takes about a week to be upgraded to a professional customer.

How to understand the phrase "the simpler the trading system, the better"?

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What is the degree of simplicity here? Or the simplicity here is not what I thought, just use a few indicators, so what do you think of this sentence?

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