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What is the process of trend formation?

高盛烨华

Trend is the key analysis point in investment. If you analyze the trend, your transaction will be half successful. Therefore, trend analysis has always attracted much attention. There are various analysis methods, but most of the analysis methods are to tell We, the current direction of the trend, but few analysis methods can explain the process of trend formation, then have we thought about a problem, if you don’t even know the process of trend formation, then your analysis of the trend direction will definitely be Is it good? Today, let's take a preliminary understanding of the process of trend formation. In the process of forming a trend, generally speaking, two conditions are required, one is a clear direction, and the other is a clear strength. Next, let us talk about these two contents in detail. The direction refers to the price going up or down. This up or down does not mean that if the price rises a little, it will go up, and if it falls a little, it will go down. As mentioned above, it needs to have a clear and distinguishable result. How to say it Woolen cloth? We all know that the market will not always go up or down in the process of rising and falling. It will always rise and fall. If there is always a fixed high and low point in the process of price rising and falling, and the price cannot break through, then in fact It can be understood that the current market is oscillating. At this time, the price seems to be in a box that cannot be broken. At this time, it can be understood that the price is in a state of no direction. When the price breaks through this box, it means that the price may choose a direction next. Of course, it is not ruled out that the price will re-enter a box again and cannot break through, but it is different if the price has a clear direction. Simple , if the price trend is upward, then it should be able to continuously hit new highs. For example, the price is rising now, and it has risen to 3000 points. Break through 3000 points and reach above 3000 points. At this time, you can simply understand that the direction of the price is upward. But is it enough to confirm that the direction of the price is upward? No, the upward direction of the price does not mean that the direction of the trend is also upward, because you are not sure whether the price can continue to rise in the future. For a simple example, I will take a small one now. If the stone is thrown forward, then we can be sure of the forward direction of this small stone, but how far can it be thrown forward? This depends on how much effort we used at that time, which is the same as judging the market. We are sure that the current market is upward, but how high it can continue to rise, we need to judge according to the strength of the price. If the direction of the price is upward , and at the same time the strength is relatively strong, then we can judge whether the price will continue to rise. If the direction of the price is clear and strong, then it can be judged that the trend direction of the price has been established. If according to my technical system, the price has formed a trend prototype, it means that the trend direction has been established, because the formation of the trend prototype, It is necessary for the price to have a direction of ups and downs, and at the same time have the strength to reach a new high or new low (hitting 1.382 means that there is a strength of ups and downs, and at the same time it means the formation of a prototype). The above is the formation process of the trend direction. When the price has a direction and has the strength to move forward in this direction, it indicates the formation of the trend direction.

trend following

What are other classic trading indicators or tools that MT4 does not have, such as Guppy moving average, Vegas channel, and Hull moving average?

the flowing glass is like dancing and the heart is sad

AutoTrendLines---Automatic trendline tool. The name is simple and rude. This tool can automatically generate trend lines according to the trend, which should be of great help to novices. Because in my understanding, many novices can't draw trend lines. This tool can solve this problem very well. The tool doesn't redraw, but it can change the angle of the line when new extremes appear. Best for intraday and mid-term trading. The best working time frame is M15-H1. This tool will try to find all possible trendlines on the chart. Then, with some coarse filter, it will exclude more than half of the lines it finds. Next, it checks the quality of the rest and displays the two best trendlines on the graph. Of course, since trend lines are highly subjective, this tool is actually not very helpful to veterans. For example, the trend line drawn by the tool in the figure below is like this. But if it's me, I'm more inclined to draw like this. Can it be said that this tool is wrong, in fact, it is also right. Can it be said that I am wrong, in fact, I can't. Therefore, the trend line is very subjective, which is why I just said that it is not very helpful to veterans, because you can know how to draw it at a glance. But for novices, it's still quite helpful.

Can EA really make money? ? ? Can it be profitable in the long run?

山城老刁民

With the advancement of science and technology and society, artificial intelligence technology is increasingly entering our lives. Ever since AlphaGo defeated the world's No. 1 Ke Jie with an absolute advantage, do you feel that human beings will really fall into their own hands like in the movie? However, today's topic is not artificial intelligence, but trading EA. EA is the abbreviation of Intelligent Trading System (Expert Advisor). EA is a programmatic trading system for the MT4/MT5 platform, which can automatically complete the transaction without any manual intervention. Although EA trading does have its advantages (no manual intervention, machine execution speed, etc.), for most investors without programming experience, it may be best to buy EA written and tested by others in addition to self-study through EA trading. Quickly enter the way of EA trading. The price of the EA market can be described as hugely different, with EAs as low as "free" available, and EAs with prices as high as "$1988" are on sale. Netizens have different views on EA, some think it is very good, and some think it is unreliable: The opinion of approving EA is: if EA cannot make money, then it is denying its own judgment on the market. Because in the final analysis, EA is a program that people write themselves. If it is not a profitable strategy, there is no need to spend time writing a program. Moreover, according to the principle that existence is reasonable, EA is definitely useful and can help to make money. What should be questioned is not whether EA can make money on the surface, but whether trading strategies and fund management can be well reflected in EA. They sneered at those who bombarded EA without making money, and said that EA was useless, thinking that they actually did not understand the true meaning of EA. Netizens who do not agree think that using EA is a gambling transaction, because the majority of people who use EA transactions in the market lose money. Some people think that EA is just a tool, and whether it can make a profit depends entirely on the user's cognitive methodology. It is impossible to do it once and for all. In the final analysis, it depends on one's own trading experience. What's more, the market is different every year, and the strategy is not static. It is definitely not enough to rely on EA. In fact, judging whether an EA is useful or not requires consideration from many aspects. For example: what is the individual's risk appetite? What is the type of transaction you are used to? What is the acceptable profit-loss ratio and risk-reward ratio? In what environment is this EA used? Precautions for using EA Stable and uninterrupted connection I believe that friends who often use EA know a common sense that if the server is often disconnected, EA will not be able to achieve the desired effect at all. For example, when the EA detects the signal that should place an order according to the chart, the client suddenly disconnects, then the EA's order placing action at this time will be interrupted, and the result is that the order is unsuccessful. Otherwise, unnecessary losses may be caused. Of course, disconnections are common and unavoidable, because no brokerage firm can guarantee that all customers are completely disconnected. Then the reason for the disconnection is largely due to the unstable network environment where the trader is located. Entry is not affected by liquidity Why is entry not affected by liquidity? To give a simple example, at this moment you think it is the best time to sell an order and decide to enter the market, but your order is not filled because the order is rejected by liquidity. This is the entry is affected by liquidity. If the order is rejected, it may disrupt the EA's execution strategy, and the final outcome is to turn profit into loss. So, why does liquidity reject orders? Here are some reasons and solutions for refusals. The first one was insufficient liquidity at the time. That is to say, when you enter the market, there is not enough inventory on the liquidity side to give you, so the order cannot be filled. This kind of situation usually occurs when a large number of hands are entered at one time, such as 50 hands, 100 hands. Of course, if this is the case, then the EA strategy needs to split the large number of orders into small lots, and then throw them to the liquidity side in batches, and this problem will be effectively solved. The second is that the lot size is too small. This is actually easy to understand. That is to say, there are too small lots in the EA strategy, which is smaller than the minimum transaction volume of liquidity, and such orders cannot be traded. For example, the accepted order with the least liquidity is 0.1 lot, but the order thrown by the EA is 0.01 lot, which is less than the minimum acceptable amount. The solution is also very obvious, which is to adjust your minimum lot size and liquidity to match. The third type is that the increase gradient does not match. To give a simple example, the minimum trading lot size on the liquidity side is 0.1 lot, and the minimum increase position is 0.1 lot, then the acceptable order size is 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4...and so on . However, the EA may have adjusted the minimum lot size to 0.1 lots, but the minimum increase gradient is still 0.01; then the EA side can place orders such as 0.11, 0.15, and then according to the rules of liquidity, orders of this size It is unacceptable and will eventually lead to rejection. Therefore, EA strategists should also consider the size of the increase in positions. Of course, if the failure of the EA strategy is not worth the loss due to the problem of liquidity rules, traders who use EA for trading on any platform must first determine the trading rules and depth of liquidity in order to control their own. Strategies, stable profits. Restrictions on the distance of pending orders As we all know, the purpose of setting stop profit and stop loss is to ensure a certain profit and avoid greater losses. Many EAs also have the function of setting stop profit and stop loss, but the setting of stop profit and stop loss does not guarantee that the setting is successful every time. why? Because basically every brokerage platform will set the distance of pending orders, otherwise it will be arbitraged to death. The following two EAs are used as examples to illustrate why EAs should pay attention to the distance between pending orders. 1. Enter the market and set a stop profit and stop loss This type of EA will set a stop profit and stop loss when entering the market. For example, the stop loss and stop loss set by the EA when entering the market is around 15 points of the market price. Stop loss. In this case, EA cannot enter the market, because the rules do not allow it, so this problem will be discovered when the order is started, and future problems can be avoided. This is a better situation, let's talk about the next situation. 2. Set profit and stop loss in the middle This situation is more difficult. When the EA has successfully placed an order, it is ready to set a stop profit and stop loss according to market changes. However, it is found that the rule of the brokerage platform is that it must be more than 30 points away from the market price to set a stop loss and stop loss. loss, and the stop loss set by the EA needs to be around 15 points of the market price. Is it a tragedy, the stop profit and stop loss settings are unsuccessful! You can imagine the result after that, EA can't play, and if it loses money, it will be lost to the end. How to judge the data of EA? EA cannot work in all market conditions. You need to adjust the EA's settings for different types of markets in order for it to function. Any EA that is not managed will incur losses. In short, no EA is suitable for all market conditions. 1. Profit Factor The profit factor will directly tell you the potential profit of this EA. This is naturally the most important data. It can also reflect the relationship between risk and profit. However, any EA that guarantees a profit but puts all your money at risk is definitely not a good choice. The profit factor is the ratio between the total amount of profitable transactions and the total amount of loss transactions, that is to say, it is the ratio of net profit divided by net loss. The higher the ratio, the better the profit. Do not choose an EA with a profit factor less than 1. 2. Expected profit per trade This data means the expected profit amount of a transaction. This is an estimate based on EA's past data, so future profitability cannot be guaranteed. But it's still useful. The expected profit is calculated by dividing the average profit per trade by the average loss per trade. 3. Potential drawdown (maximum drawdown, average drawdown, etc.) The decline represents the risk, and it is the largest percentage loss recorded since the previous high. This data can tell you how much loss you may suffer if there is a problem with the EA. In a curve chart, if the curve representing the potential decline keeps going up, it means that the EA is profitable, and if it goes down, it means that the volatility is high. An EA with high volatility and higher potential losses will bring more risks to traders. 4. Risk reward ratio The risk reward ratio means the EA's risk appetite. For example, if an EA's take-profit point is 5 points, and the stop-loss point is 40 points, then its risk-reward ratio is 8:1. In this case, the profit rate must reach 89% to guarantee income. Some EAs in the market have a risk-reward ratio of 15:1, such as scalping EAs. However, this does not mean that these EAs cannot generate profits. Only when the risk-reward ratio is high and the profit rate is reduced, the EA will cause losses. In summary, the possibility of relying on an EA to achieve risk-free profit does not exist. Even with a set of EA with excellent performance, investors still need to have sufficient trading experience and ability to make good use of such a trading tool. Whether it is EA or self-trading, it is a matter of probability. Even the best EA may explode. Reasonable fund management, daring to try, guarantee profits, and good risk control are the most important skills that traders should master.

Do you let your kids touch trading?

该账号已注销

As a full-time trader for 10 years, if my kid still wants to trade full-time, I will break his leg... Kidding. I have discussed this topic with members of the team several times in the office. Several colleagues who have children agree that children should not be allowed to make deals in the future. Their point of view is to make good money by themselves and leave enough capital for their children so that they can live their own lives. Children don't have to worry about money, they can just do what they like. Parents may have such an idea. People who do business are closer to wealth, and this idea is more urgent. Trading is a very difficult thing, and all trading peers will recognize this; I do not want to let my children do futures trading, mainly based on the following points. First: Transactions are anti-human. When the transaction goes smoothly and the account makes a profit, the trader cannot be excited or happy; when the transaction is not smooth and the account suffers a loss, the trader cannot be depressed or sad; in any case, he must remain rational and keep the transaction consistent Sexuality, strictly abide by the trading rules, and implement position management. Of course, many things in this world are anti-human; fitness, weight loss, dieting, weight control, etc.; but you will not fail to lose weight or lose weight just because you miss a fitness class or eat an extra meal. But in the transaction, because of your small mistake, it will cause a series of vicious reactions, leading to the complete failure of the transaction. Therefore, in the matter of human nature, the transaction requirements are the highest. Second: Not everyone is suitable for trading. I have been trading for 10 years, and I have seen all kinds of traders; many failed traders do not know a lot of trading principles or trading logic; many failed traders also know their own problems; no matter how much you fail in trading Miserable, how serious the loss is; when you start trading again, you will make the same mistake again and again; This kind of thing is neither miraculous nor miraculous; after trading becomes inertial, bad trading mistakes will be like human conditioned reflexes. When traders encounter the same or similar situations, they will subconsciously make wrong choices. So even if I am a good trader, I may not be able to raise my children to be good traders. Third: All roads lead to Rome, and the way to make money is not necessarily to choose to do business. Many people think that trading is a job that can make a lot of money. Indeed, trading is a career with a breakthrough income; but this breakthrough is only beneficial to you when you are successful. Such a career is usually very competitive. It also leads to greater inequality and uncertainty, and even a huge difference between effort and return. A few people get the vast majority of the pie in the industry, and others may get nothing. Such a fiercely competitive profession; if you do not do it well, your life may be ruined; as a parent, how would you want your child to engage in such a profession? Summary: One day my child will grow up and understand me, and I will tell him the following truth: Everyone should have the right to choose their own life: I will tell him what is, but I will not tell him how select.

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What cognitive biases do we have to overcome?

天使

How to understand "buy news and sell facts"? How to deal with similar data planes?

独自空忆成欢

When doing transactions, if you cannot handle the market conditions on the data side well, you may miss a large wave of trading profits. Of course, we cannot ignore the huge risks brought by the data plane. Buying news and selling facts is a common trick in trading. Regardless of whether it is the "Tai Chi Master" Federal Reserve or non-agricultural data, such a market will basically be staged every year. However, it still affects the main funds in essence. The same is the message side, the effect is different. For example, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy of the European Central Bank, etc. These data basically affect the entire trading market for a long time. Even if there are short-term fluctuations in the short-term buying news and selling facts, the overall price trend will still be determined by The long-term aspect is the main one. Data such as non-agricultural data, EIA crude oil inventories and CPI usually affect market trends in a short-term manner. Different data have different impacts on prices, and they need to be treated differently in the actual operation process. Regarding the market trend of buying news and selling facts, some of my thoughts: First, what we need to know is that this is a normal price behavior in the market, and it is difficult to form a consistent operation, because the data is changing every time, the economic situation of each country is always changing, and the market trend is always changing . It is still impossible to use fixed principles to stipulate that the fluctuation of the data market mainly depends on the actual data. Second, the data market also conforms to the basic assumptions in the Dow Theory. Price action is everything. After all, the trend brought about by data fluctuations is only a short-term fluctuation. Under the premise of not affecting the trend structure, the price behavior will still reverse the negative fluctuations brought about by the data. Just like the non-agricultural data in September, the value of the data announced was bullish for gold, but the overall trend of gold at that time was bearish. Therefore, after the release of the data, it gapped and opened high and then fell rapidly, returning to a short trend. This is also one of the reasons for buying news and selling facts. Third, the data market is unpredictable, and it can be seen from a distance but not played with. It is still necessary to understand that the premise is that no one can know the data market in advance. Although there is a price difference between milliseconds, ordinary traders cannot advance in advance. For example, top foreign investment banks, in order to manipulate the data market, spared no expense to set up trading servers near the Federal Reserve headquarters or the office building of the US Department of Labor. This is done for the negligible time difference. Therefore, for us ordinary people, it is best to wait for the data to be released before looking for opportunities to enter the market. This is a relatively safe way to deal with it. Fourth, regarding the data market, we do not know whether there will be buying news and selling facts before the data is released. So we don't need to guess the data. My previous trading method is, before such data is released, two-way pending orders, especially non-agricultural data, follow the order wherever the price breaks through, enter the market quickly and close positions quickly, and never love to fight. However, the risk points of this method are also obvious. First, the price may gap, and the transaction is made at a bad price; second, the price may be swept back and forth; greater risk. However, this trading method has been useless for a long time, and I don't operate the data surface very much now. Finally, I still suggest that you do not gamble on such data, the risk is too great. Moreover, the data side has a high proportion of luck, which cannot last for a long time. Build your own trading system, everything is based on the trading system, this is the right way.

I have been unable to set the stop loss in the transaction, how can I do a good stop loss?

mingyue kk

In the process of forming this trading routine, I have also been troubled by whether it is a single-cycle stop loss and take-profit, or a large-cycle stop-loss and small-cycle take-profit, or a small-cycle stop-loss and a large-cycle stop-profit, or a large-cycle judgment direction and a small-cycle stop Loss and take profit. Each of the above paths can be followed, and each has its own advantages and disadvantages at the beginning. I won’t talk about the disadvantages at the beginning. You need to see its advantages at this time. The prey of your future trading routines will come out of these rough advantages. Stick to only one way, and in the end you will find this way to maximize strengths and avoid weaknesses. At this time, you basically have your own trading routine. In fact, each road has its own personality. If your personality does not match your external conditions, it will be very awkward to walk. Sticking to one path is actually running in, and running in must mean changing oneself or fine-tuning the road. The running-in process is painful, but the result is comfortable. Trying different paths will take a lot of time at the beginning, and there are too many choices, so it is easy to get confused. This stage of "more confusion" is basically unavoidable for novices. Some people have a pure heart, like Xu Sanduo, who can take whatever path they are given and insist on only one path. This kind of person will find one path faster than those with mixed thoughts, but the disadvantage is that it may be this path It doesn't fit me very well, there will be a ceiling in the future, and breaking through the ceiling will also lead to a painful process of rebirth from Nirvana. I am a person with mixed thoughts. If I don’t try other paths, I will feel unsteady. But after I chose the path back then, I never changed it. In the next few years, I didn’t break through the shocks. This stage was very painful, but every order I traded was in line with the path of small cycle stop loss and large cycle stop profit, any order. The construction of the trading system is like the formation of sedimentary rocks. The sediment is deposited layer by layer. The lower it is, the more stable it is, and the higher it is, the easier it is to change. Change and change, and it will gradually become fixed. How can the trading system be built if there is no fixed thing precipitated. After walking out of this road, I found that the above roads can be walked. Momentum is the key. These roads are entrances. When you come in from this entrance, you will gradually understand that these roads are essentially the appearance of how to fit yourself into the momentum. From the form of matching the potential to find out what the potential is, and when you understand what the potential is, you can take any road at this time, because the road is just an external form of matching the potential. But you have not reached this stage, you still need to choose an entrance to come in honestly, and walk along a road. The essence of stop loss is to seize the opportunity and fail. A transaction is assembled from two components, one called direction and one called timing. You have judged the direction through the technical analysis of the large cycle, or through the fundamental analysis, you think that this variety will go in one direction in the future. You know that it is going to rise, but you don't know when it will rise and where the timing is. Timing is reflected in two things in trading, one is time, and the other is price space. Both of these can be obtained from charts and fundamentals. Of course, not every time. Every time you seize the opportunity, it is trial and error. The way of trial and error is to stop loss. If there is no stop loss, it is not called trial and error, that is, it does not matter whether judgment is right or wrong, there is no standard for judging right or wrong, there is no rules in the transaction, there is no rules, and usually it will operate according to the original human nature, carry the big loss and run with a small profit Lose. You don't know the timing of the rise. At this time, you have two options, one is to stop the loss. A large stop loss also means that it can tolerate a longer time and a larger price position, and it is a bet on the timing of rising in this long-term and large-scale space. Stop loss and big stop loss, in essence, expand the space and time attributes of timing. One is to place a small stop loss at the timing of speculation. Timing, because it is a point, means an extremely short time and an extremely small space. In trading, this is called a time point and a price point. The bet is that the position of this small point, such as the position of 123 in the above picture, will rise, or there will be a rise at a certain data release time point. Once this small point does not appear, stop the loss. From this kind of thinking, there are stop loss by time, stop loss by space and stop loss by feeling. You read the first rule in the gift of the ghost, and you experience it, is this the trading idea? Space and time, in terms of transactions, are approximately equal to the price cycle level. The essence of small-period stop loss is to grasp the timing within a small range. If you don't know why you have a small stop loss, then you must have not figured out what level of opportunity you are grasping, and it is difficult to accept a small stop loss. Once you understand that you are seizing the opportunity, you will calmly accept the existence of a small stop loss, instead of a big stop loss and a small stop loss, in exchange. The understanding of when to seize the opportunity is also the reason why I can settle down. Even if I frequently stop losses in small cycles, I still insist on small stop losses. At the beginning, I thought that with the improvement of my experience, the timing would become more and more proficient, and the frequent stop loss would be reduced through experience. Looking at it now, this idea is not wrong, and experience is also very useful. However, it is not the fundamental solution. The fundamental solution lies in "potential". Large cycle stop profit and small cycle stop profit also correspond to different logics, you can think about this for yourself.

How to understand "buy news and sell facts"? How to deal with similar data planes?

smiling angel

"Buy the news and sell the facts" This is a saying we often say when we are doing data market. This sentence comprehensively reflects the changes in the price trajectory before, during and after the data is released. Why do prices change like this? Let's first pull our thinking back to the trivial things in life. When I was young, I liked a pair of shoes very much. They were very beautiful. This pair of shoes was given to me by relatives. I was still young, and the size of the shoes was too big. My mother told me to keep them and wear them when I grow up. In the following days, I always look forward to wearing new shoes when I grow up. Another year of winter, my mother took out the new pair of winter shoes, and I couldn't wait to hold them in my hands, but the pair of shoes in front of me were not good-looking, not as beautiful as I expected day and night, but nothing more, so ordinary They are just ordinary shoes, but when I try them on, I feel rustic. I smile badly in my heart. Is this the new pair of shoes I have been thinking about? 1. "Buy the news and sell the facts" is a man's heart Looking back at "buy news and sell facts", are we looking forward to the data or the event itself? No, but the impact on the market. What is being affected in the market? - human emotions What affects people's emotions? - own thoughts What controls people's thoughts? - Physiological instinct So, what drives the size of the market volatility? It is human physiological instinct. The human brain affects the market's expectations on this event. "Buy news and sell facts" Before the event happened, review agencies and major financial websites predicted the results one after another, instigating people’s hearts. This event has attracted more and more people’s attention. If there is attention, it will definitely be discussed, and if there is discussion, it will increase the number of readings and related video broadcasts of the event. quantity. Induce more and more people to participate in the market, or buy more, or add more. In the long-short game, investors are more and more nervous about being instigated, and the multi-party has a strong momentum to take the initiative in the market. After the data or events were announced, everyone said that it was nothing more than that. How can this incident be said to be so serious, and experts are nothing more than that. It is just a way of agitating public opinion in the media. Everyone sold one after another, the varieties were sold at a high level, and the price poured down. The data market is the best embodiment of the market participants' floating support to promote the market. 2. Trends come first, events follow "Dow Theory" stock market prices are a barometer of economic performance. It is the law that dominates the price fluctuations and changes in the market, not an event or a certain person; the impact of human behavior and events is to boost the trend. Before the release of the data, the trend pattern of this variety has already told the market participants the direction. Whether it can be interpreted and implemented requires the benevolent to see the wisdom of the wise. Let me take the non-agricultural data as an example, and do a simple analysis to help you expand your ideas for making data market lists. The most concerned about every month is the US non-farm payrolls data. It is also considered by many people to be the most suitable time to grab money every month. For the trend of non-agricultural data, there is a more important way to predict, which is a four-hour candle line closest to the data release. According to the position of the candle combination and the 60-day moving average, predict whether the direction of the market tonight is bullish or bearish. The most commonly used and best trading methods are breakthrough and selling high and buying low. Many order-making principles are based on these two order-making methods. Therefore, the non-agricultural data can also be used in the way of selling high and buying low or breaking through. to think. On the basis of the theoretical model, it is enough to make appropriate improvements and adjustments. This sideways range is set based on the highest price and the lowest price of the day. 2-3 hours before the market, you can prepare the order in advance, set the stop profit and stop loss and wait for the market to give the result. Personally, I do not recommend entering the market when the market fluctuates violently after the data is released. It is easy to suffer no loss due to the unreasonable position of the market due to the spread. "Buy the news and sell the facts", you must believe that any event in the international market will tell you the answer in advance in the form of price operation, and it is particularly important to interpret the information on the disk. Prices come first, events follow. Any strategy must be deployed in advance in order to win every battle.

The four heart-wrenching moments of trading—buy at a high point, sell at a low point, reverse when you stop loss, go unilaterally against the trend when you die, which one makes you unable to bear it?

眼睛会笑i

Most people will encounter a very embarrassing problem, that is, when the order is covered and we stop the loss, we will be slapped in the face-the market will immediately rebound. That is. If our order does not stop loss, we can carry it back, and there will be no loss in the account. And when it is even more embarrassing, this situation does not happen once or twice, but many times. Our account even died in the constant stop loss. In the end, we don't want to stop the loss, and we don't want to stop the loss. Yes, I am one of them. This is also the situation that broke me down very much. I won’t talk about specific cases. I don’t need too many. I think there are quite a few people who have experienced this. Later, I was thinking about a question, whether the order will not stop loss, should I bring it back? It turns out that it is possible in most cases. Of course, the risk is very high, because as long as you can't come back once you resist, then there is only one result -- liquidation. So is this method feasible? In fact, there are, for example, for a position of 100,000 US dollars, I do 1-2 lots of gold, regardless of the direction, regardless of the stop loss, just floating in it, no matter how the market goes, I will definitely be able to carry it to profit. Of course, the capital utilization rate and so on, it must be very poor. Later I was thinking, why can most of my quilt sheets be brought back? The first reason is: Most of the time, the market is volatile, oscillating up and down, chaotic and disorderly. So most of the time, the market has no trend and is a chaotic market. If you go into the quilt, there will always be a chance for you to unwind during the ups and downs, unless you happen to be empty near the lowest point of this shock range, or more often near the highest point of this shock range. Of course, the subsequent market will go out of the direction. If the subsequent market breaks upwards, then you can be undone if you go long at the high level of the oscillating range; Unable to untangle. In other words, only if you are unfortunately empty near the lowest position of this shock range, it will be difficult for you to get rid of the set. In most other price ranges, if you enter a position, even if you are trapped, you don't need to stop loss, and you can get out of the trap at a certain point in the future. After all, you happen to be near the lowest level of the shock range, so the probability must be small. Therefore, in a large shock range, if you are trapped and don't stop loss, as long as the position is not heavy, you can carry it back. The second reason: In the trending market, there is a trend one-third of the time. But even so, most of the trending market is also a volatile rising and falling market, taking three steps and two turns. If the market is rising, you chase more in the middle of the market, and then the market falls and you are caught, then you can get out of the trap in the future, because the market will resume its trend in the future. Unless you are unlucky enough to catch up with the extreme end of the trend, after the trend turns, you will be trapped at the highest position and cannot get rid of it. Of course, the proportion of time points near the highest point is very, very small, so most of the time, if you take advantage of the trend, you can get rid of the set. There is another way. If you are against the trend, if the market is rising in a volatile manner, then you go short against the trend. Although you are temporarily caught, the market is three steps and two turns. If you are trapped, after the market retreats, you can also get out of the trap, unless your short position against the trend is too low, and if the market turns back, you will not be able to return to your position. It’s big, there’s a 40% probability that you won’t be able to solve the set, and a 60% probability that you can still solve the set. Since most of the quilt orders can be carried back, should we stop the loss? Analyzed the possibility, but also pondered the reasons. So what are you waiting for, take action. Yes, from then on, I started to place orders without a stop loss. At the beginning, the effect was good. Many orders that should have been stopped before were successfully resisted. During that time, I was floating when I walked, and I felt that I was too smart. Ran goose. . . . Once again, it was beaten by the market. . . That's right, it's just that the dead bear has encountered a counter-trend, and it has resisted the explosion. Yes, I met two of the four heart-wrenching moments alone. . . . I feel very sad. Later, I began to ponder why it is not feasible without a stop loss. It is found that once the extreme trend market comes out, the speed will be very fast, and the rise or fall will be large. If you happen to catch up with this time and make orders against the trend, you will not stop losing if you are trapped, and you still hope to automatically untangle, it will be miserable. Because I got used to the past of not stopping loss and being able to get rid of the set, I developed a habit, so when the trend came out, I lost money. In reality, people who liquidated their positions basically died in several counter-trends, that is, they lived for a long time and died in a short time. In the end, I came to the conclusion that 70% of the wrong stop losses are better than stop losses, because even 1% of the stop losses should be stopped without stop losses, which will lead to your liquidation. Especially after the trend comes out, the loss must be stopped without hesitation. Because after the trend comes out, the speed is faster and the range is relatively large. The more you stop the loss, the bigger the floating loss is, and the more you can't bear to stop the loss. Therefore, risk comes first, and it is better to stop the loss by mistake than to stop the loss. It is an opportunity, and it cannot be missed. It means making less money, but it can keep us alive. If we are alive, we will have a chance to make a comeback.

Open your eyes! Here are Top 5 established brokers which are often cloned.

iamjane

Compared to other types of frauds, clone scams are far trickier and more difficult to detect. Those bogus firms not only swindle hard-earned money from investors, but steal the good name of genuinely legitimate companies as well. Therefore, we collected and analyzed the data of 20 well-known brokers’ clone firms. Below, I listed the top 5 brokers which are often cloned by scammers, along with 3 tips to help you avoid the clone firms. Top 5 established brokers which are often cloned No.1 Exness Exness stands the first of the list with at least 18 clones. It is well-known trading brand held by Exness Group. Founded in 2008, this group currently operates seven entities, including Exness (SC) LTD (formerly known as Nymstar Limited), Exness B.V. , Exness (VG) Ltd. , Exness ZA (PTY) Ltd, Exness (Cy) Ltd, Exness (MU) Ltd and Exness (UK) Ltd (formerly known as Exness Europe Limited). No.2 AvaTrade The second place is AvaTrade, whose clone firms reaches up to 16. AvaTrade is a reputable broker and also one of the most highly regulated online brokers to offer Forex and CFD trading. Established in 2006, it is licensed as a regulated broker in the EU, Japan, Australia, South Africa, UAE and the British Virgin Islands. As such, AvaTrade offers clients multiple trading websites in different languages, which is one of selling point for AvaTrade. No.3 FOREX.com FOREX.com is ranked 3rd and its clones hit 14. As one of the longest standing brand, GAIN Capital Group LLC, trading as FOREX.com, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc, a NASDAQ-listed financial giant. Since operating in 2001, it has a strong presence across the world and regulated in multiple jurisdictions worldwide, including the FCA, NFA, CySEC, ASIC, MAS, FSA of Japan, CIMA and IIROC. No.4 FXTM The fourth place in this list is FXTM, with at least 12 clones. FXTM is the brand of four entities, ForexTime Ltd, Exinity Capital East Africa Ltd, Exinity UK Limited and Exinity Limited. These companies are all owned by Exinity Group. The broker is founded in 2011 and authorized and regulated in various jurisdictions, covering FCA, CySEC, CMA and FSC of Mauritius. No.5 IC Markets IC Markets is the No. 5 position of the list, whose clones is roughly 9. It is an Australian based online forex broker that was established in 2007. The company has multiple branches and is regulated by CySEC, FSA of Seychelles and ASIC. The Group has several regulated entities, encompassing IC Markets EU, IC Markets AU, IC Markets Global and IC Markets SCB. 3 Common Tactics Employed by Clone Firms 1.Make good use of the established brokers’ socialproof All the clone scams either are unregulated or steal the license number of regulated brokers. Those impostors who steal the license number and pretend to be reputable or well-known firms, capitalize on the socialproof to fool investors into believing their claims. FOREX.com is a good example of that. The broker had an excellent reputation among Chinese investors as it was approved by China Banking Regulatory Commission as early as in 2011. However, more than a half of clone firms are registered in China. It turned out that clone scams masqueraded as reputable firms could make much less effort to gain investors’ trust. 2.Choose brokers which have various company names and websites Notably, all the five brokers have various company names, which are more likely to be the prime target of clone frauds. Let’s take Exness as an example. The names of Exness Group companies are too complex to be memorized. Although most fraudsters tend to make subtle changes to the established company names, 8 out of 18 scammers choose to directly adopt the original company name of Exness, such as Exness (SC) LTD and Nymstar Limited, which often makes investors much harder to detect. Scammers even take advantage of the multilingual trading websites to pretend to be overseas company of the real broker. They usually claim to be local branches and add the country to the company name such as Ava Pairs Trade Markets Incorporated, or to the web site domain names like asiatrader.com.tw. 3.Choose brokers which use abbreviated trademarks Using abbreviation as a trading name helps company keep their brand in customers’ mind but on the other hand, it may leave much room for those fraudsters. Adding or taking away words and transforming the upper or lower case are popular tactics for clone firms. For instance, FXTM is the abbreviation of its company name, ForexTime. Those fake FXTM firms add various words like FXTM Trading and Live Forex Time Group, or add asset classes such as OPTIONS FXTM and fxtm Investment option LTD to masqueraded as genuine brokers.

Broker Discussion

How do you handle when you're in the "wrong trade"?

长腿毛先生

Trading is right and wrong. To say this, we have to start from just entering the transaction. When we are interested, to deposit, from opening the first order to being educated by the market, all transactions during this period are regardless of right and wrong. Even if you doubled or lost all your capital. Most of these transactions are based on one or two indicators or a little advice from the person who led you into the pit, or even simply opening positions with your temper. There is no right or wrong in these. After being educated by the market, I learned from the pain. After starting the learning process, from simple indicators to the masterpieces of Wave, Dow, Gann, Turtle, Livermore, etc., it is only at this time that there is a distinction between right and wrong. These have been learned to a certain extent, and when doing transactions, they must be mixed with the strengths of various companies, their own understanding, and a small part of random behavior. This is the time to learn, and the transaction has slowly started to get on the right track from a casual start. The trading system is also formed from here. It is only here that the transaction is officially divided into right and wrong. All trades made according to the system think it is correct, and all trades done not according to the system are invariably wrong. At this time, the transaction that made mistakes but made money is the biggest killer. Just like the stop loss in the system, when the market is about to reach the stop loss position, you extend the stop loss line by a certain distance, and the market just turns around. In the end, the transaction not only has no stop loss, but also makes a profit. Then this transaction is a wrong transaction for you. It makes you feel distrustful of the whole system, and all the core of the transaction, all your reliance is the trading system and system that you have worked hard to read, think day and night, and summarize and slowly solidify. However, this transaction at this time has reduced your trust in the system, which is a mockery of countless previous thoughts. If things go on like this, this sense of trust will be lost, and the transaction will return to the chaotic state of the novice period, and the account will shrink accordingly or be taken away by the market. So what's the right deal? Of course, according to what you have learned, sum up the essence and refine it into your own trading system, which is your ultimate understanding of the market. But the system at this time may indeed not make money or even lose money. If you follow its guidance and lose money for a long time with a set of systems, is the transaction at this time still correct? The answer is still correct. A trade that loses money allows you to examine the system again, to recognize its shortcomings and modify it, which is also correcting your own understanding of the market. Slowly, when to open a position, when to stop loss, when to take profit, and when to increase position. Transactions within the rules have a probability of making money and losing money. At this time, the trade that loses money is also correct. Although I lose money, the system has already calculated how many times I can bear such a loss, and how many more times my funds will be safe. My roots are still there. Therefore, what the subject said is that a profit order may be a wrong transaction, and a loss order may also be a correct transaction, which is completely correct. When in the "wrong trade", close the trade as soon as possible if you realize it. If it makes a profit, it should give itself a slap in the face. As the price to pay for doing something wrong. If you lose money, you don’t need it, the market has already educated you.

What do you think is the most important thing in trading?

天使

If you want to make money in trading, what principles do you need to understand?

struggling dream

Perfectly avoid trading traps, in fact, you can too!

交易小书童

A normal investor must have made sufficient preparations before entering the market, and has a certain economic level to ensure that he will not sit back and eat because of a momentary mistake during the transaction process. Experience leads to being trapped in the quagmire of theory. Once trapped in it, it takes more time to get out, because they will use theoretical methods to predict the next trend of the market when trading. Today, I compiled a few expected situations that I often encounter. I believe that everyone has experienced several kinds of situations when trading. I hope that you can avoid being baptized by the market and complete this stage of growth. 01 Theoretical Expectations Dow Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Wyckoff Theory, Gann Theory, etc. are all quite well-known basic knowledge. People who come into contact with trading will learn at least two or more theories as a benchmark, but it is difficult for people who lack practical experience To experience the correct situation and the wrong type introduced in the theory. For example, the Elliott Wave Theory mentions that the normal market will enter a larger correction in the third and fifth waves, and that the third wave will be the biggest wave in the entire trend, but it is not true for every trend They will enter a big correction when they reach the fifth wave, and often gradually widen the correction range in the fourth wave, or even directly form a reverse trend. Those who study Elliott Wave Theory will begin to doubt whether there is a problem with the theory itself. Theory is only one of the tools, and there will not be a period when a single theory dominates. Investors need to learn several different types of theories in order to have the ability to think in multiple ways when facing the market. 02 Type Expectation M head/W bottom, head-shoulders top/head-shoulders bottom, butterfly, bat, and cup-handle are the basic shapes, which are most often applied in the market, and because of their foundation, quite a variety of variants have been derived For example, butterfly, bat, and crab patterns are harmonic patterns extended from M head/W bottom with Fibonacci. Most of these patterns have strict establishment conditions, which makes many investors Focusing on a particular pattern while ignoring other possibilities during analysis . 03 Price expectations "When the market enters an equidistant channel, the price will move back and forth between the two sides of the channel", which gives investors the misunderstanding that the price will definitely hit one side of the channel first, and then the next time it will hit the other side of the channel However, the actual situation may be that after touching one side many times in the channel, it turns to the other side or directly makes a breakthrough. Another way to get attached to the price is Fibonacci . In the traditional Fibonacci usage, there is a saying: when the price pulls back to the 61.8 position, it will reach the 161.8 price in the future. As a result, many investors completely ignore the new information brought by the market after setting their goals, and these people also ignore other common Fibonacci rebound levels, resulting in the overall transaction often ending in failure. 04 Data Expectation Before the data is released, various media will have predicted values. After the actual value is announced, the relationship with the predicted value will affect the trend of related commodities. Common ones include interest rate resolutions, non-agricultural, GDP, etc., but often in There was no significant fluctuation after the value was announced. A small number of investors will use the data brought by the market to operate short-term, think of countermeasures before the data is released, and wait and see the market in advance. Such a trading method requires a high degree of concentration. This trading method is not recommended for novices, because it is easy for this group of people to make serious wrong decisions at the slightest sign of trouble. 05 Psychological expectations This link is the problem that most people will have, which is the so-called misunderstanding of disk sense . For example, when the price has been consolidating for a period of time, most people think that once the market breaks through, it will bring a period of market price, but they did not expect that the market will still move forward smoothly. Or after the price hits the resistance level, most people think that they should enter a rebound and callback, and most people will enter the market to short and try to catch the highest point, but 9 times out of 10, they will sweep the stop loss. Analyzing the market is not to predict the future. You should not enter the market decisively because of your momentary intuition. You should integrate the existing information to deliberate on the next possibility.

Bachelor of Foreign Exchange

A handful of bitter tears, I have been trading for five years, and I still lose money, what should I do?

ninety-nine

You have to find out the reason for your loss. I don’t think it’s a technical problem if you’ve been losing money for five years. It may be that you have developed some bad trading habits when trading, such as being greedy, not setting a stop loss, and taking a heavy position. This, these small bad habits will be magnified in your trading, and eventually lead to disaster.

How to set a stop loss for an empty order?

devil uncle k

In the transaction, what do you think is the most important? What about entry point, exit point, take profit or stop loss? Today we analyze the setting method of stop loss. Everyone's definition of stop loss is different. Recently, I discussed with many friends who do trading about how to set stop loss? Traders with different trading styles define stop loss in many ways. There are undoubtedly two factions, EA faction and manual faction. (Here we are talking about most traders, not all trader styles). The result given by the EA faction is that stop loss is the way to delay my making money (again, I am talking about most EA users now, not all of them). They use EA to trade and often use the Martin strategy to trade, and the results are quite extreme. Either the capital curve is particularly beautiful and the income is not bad, or the liquidation is clean and neat. Most of the transactions would say that the stop loss must be set before, but due to the influence of the mentality of floating losses in the process, most of them still chose to delete the stop loss to gamble this wave. (To declare, I am not a trader who hacks EA, I also use plug-ins. I just want to say that there are many scammers in the market who use single masters to fool novices into pits.) There are many ways to manually set the stop loss. Next, I will talk about a few to see if there is one that is suitable for your transaction. 1. Set stop loss at key positions As the name implies, the key position is to set the stop loss at the position where you think this position is a high probability turning point, and the profit-loss ratio is relatively large. Generally, in this case, your stop loss may exceed your usual standard stop loss point. The key position mentioned here must be the most likely and accurate position judged by your trading system. Because everyone has different systems and trading methods, your stop loss at key positions is also different. Find key locations where your system fits in and operate. 2. Set an effective stop loss What positions are valid? This requires you to look at the cycle of your order. If you enter the market in 15 minutes, the stop loss is placed in a 5-minute cycle. Then this stop loss position is invalid in most cases. If you place it at 15min or 1H, it will definitely be more effective than your previous position. Therefore, the effective position of the stop loss depends on the use of your order, whether it is long-term or short-term, and whether it is a large cycle or a small cycle. The advantage of placing it in an effective stop loss position is that you can avoid market noise causing you to leave the market early. The disadvantage is that when you enter the market, your entry position and the direction of the market may be reversed, causing you to lose money More at a time. But my suggestion is that you can choose to choose an effective stop loss position when your system prompts you that there is a high probability of being correct. If you are going to test the position against the trend and trade, then the position and stop loss position can be reduced at the same time. I believe that many friends have encountered this situation. You can summarize and reflect on what is the reason for not keeping up with the trend? stop loss? Or is it a judgment on the direction of the market? 3. Set stop loss based on historical transaction records When you already have a formed trading system, you can use the historical market to set your stop loss position. The reason I say this is because when you trade, there is a certain consistency in entering and exiting the market, so if you count the transaction history in this way, you can summarize your average stop loss point. This stop loss method is a high-probability stop loss point that you get after experiencing a lot of market transactions. If you find that your stop loss points far exceed your usual trading stop loss points when trading , then you should be aware that your current entry position is largely questionable, allowing you to avoid higher-risk transactions. I think stop loss is the guarantee of our safety, and it has become a habit to bring stop loss after entering the market. Similarly, before entering the market, I also need to see what the use of this order is, how long the order is, and then see if it is within my stop loss range. Our trading is actually doing a risk-avoiding job . Above is my brief sharing of several different stop loss methods, you can match them according to your own trading system

I have had a few positions liquidated recently, but fortunately the losses were not very large. I would like to ask everyone, is there any way to prevent liquidation? Is there any trading discipline?

nico mi

The Ultimate Destiny of a Trader - Write to Yourself

似水流年

Every trader is a lone traveler. Whether it's windy flowers, snowy moons, poor mountains and bad waters, you can only go alone. Frustrations and ups and downs are everywhere, and the future may still be muddy after walking through it; But if you don't go, the dark clouds over your head will never dissipate. Looking back after drifting away; You will find that the hurdles that you thought were difficult to pass have already been passed. Those who have given you endless pain, setbacks and failures are already vulnerable and vulnerable. The improvement of cognition means that there are very few people who can understand you. There are fewer and fewer people around you, and you can only move forward alone. Those traders who are already ahead feel invincible, empty, lonely and cold. And those who fell behind and failed to liquidate their positions feel as if they have been abandoned by the world. In every invisible place, behind the endless candlesticks, every trader has his own loneliness. This is the ultimate destiny of every trader. (The movie The Big Short, a trader character I like very much) Trading is not gambling, it is a repeated attempt to make money. The market is the best teacher, and your right and wrong will be reported truthfully. And you have to be the best introspector you can be. Do these two things, and you can survive here after all. Impulse trading is greed, and it kills your chances of consistent profitability. You will always understand, especially in the margin market, that there is only a thin veil between heaven and hell, and it may only be a few seconds. Losing money is not necessarily a loss. There is no need to regret it. Doing business requires costs. What matters is how much you win when you win and how much you lose when you lose. When you get used to looking at losses without emotion, you have taken the first step. The market does not care about victory, the only opponent is ourselves, and the genes of failure flow in the blood of each of us. There is no risk in the market itself, and it doesn't matter about risk. It's just that you participate in life and death and you are killed, and you participate in risk and you are risked. So control yourself to control the risk. Avoiding a large drawdown of funds is the secret to stable profits. You should stop losses and reduce positions, and you should not take chances. Even if you succeed once, it only takes one failure to knock you down. You have to get rich slowly, whether in life or speculation, 99% of failures come from get-rich-quick fantasies. You have to distinguish what you deserve and what you want to grab from God. Getting rich quick is self-destructive. It is still a violation of heaven to do evil, but self-inflicted evil cannot live. Only a fool would feel the depth of the water with two feet. - African proverbs Trends come out, not judged by you. The future is unpredictable. It doesn't matter about forecasting. Once the forecast is correct, you feel that you are God and subconsciously enlarge your position. If the prediction is wrong, you feel like a clown, your mentality collapses, and you operate in chaos. I can give you a way to stabilize losses, enter a small level such as 1 minute, and then try to accurately predict every turning point and seize every positive and negative two-way fluctuation. No need to set a profit target for yourself; The amount of profit is given by the market, not what you strive for. If you set a goal, you will have obsession and expectations. If you have expectations, you will be disappointed, and disappointment will lead to mistakes. It would be much better if traders assumed that every trade they made could fail. Be positive about life, but be pessimistic about your next deal. Speculation is sometimes similar to unrequited love between men and women: the greater the hope, the greater the disappointment! Evaluating feelings and transactions without emotion is much better. Shut up if you win, shut up if you lose. Winning and showing off is the beginning of your loss. A happy neighbor is pain, don't wake it up. In addition, this kind of thinking will make you focus on profit and loss instead of the system. The point is not how much you win or how much you lose, but how much you grow. Hude (trading system) carries things and moistens things silently, and wealth will come naturally. Life is also speculative, sincere and fearful, and often thinks about the past in leisure time. Investing is not an industry that rewards one's talents, or even the opposite. Remember, you can be wrong at any time. But paradoxically, speculation is an enterprise of absolute individual heroism. You have to insist on yourself, but also give up on yourself, and take the initiative to admit your mistakes. How to grasp the balance between these? The road is difficult, the road is difficult, not in the mountains, not in the water, but in the fluctuations of the market. Profit is to find a trace of possibility in the impossible, and it is to live and die calmly between life and death. Therefore, speculation is life, and we have to give up. Know what to stop and then gain. When you want to change your destiny through trading, you will most likely enter a loss, because you subconsciously increase your position. A large position means that your psychology, stop loss, and operation have all dropped significantly; Trading cannot change destiny, and we must be friends with time. Don't fall into egotism, don't hold positions against the market. Don't be egotistical. Admitting defeat is a kind of ability. If you want to make it perish, you must first make its crazy truth get the most perfect interpretation in the field of trading. The most regrettable thing in life is to easily give up what should not be given up, and stubbornly persist in what should not be persisted. - Plato When making steady profits or trading for a living is not a completion time but an eternity, it should not be taken lightly at any time. It is a dead end to find the precise laws of the market. You are here to make money, not to find a crystal ball! By the end of the trade, you are reticent, cautious, and egotistical. Road to Road, very Avenue. Because in the end, all your understanding, operation, life, everything is integrated into one. You are the Tao, the Tao is you, and the Tao follows nature. Do as you please.

Forex Trading Research Institute

Is trend following a false proposition?

tianji road

Topic, whether trend following is a false proposition, I don’t want to talk about this first. What I want to point out is that your question is actually a false proposition at all! Why do you say this way? There are two reasons: 1. What happened to Stanley Crowe? Stanley Crowe is a well-known "long-term trading master" and "trend trading master" in the Wall Street futures industry. He has published six futures monographs, and probably three of them are the most widely circulated in China. Futures Speculators", "Crow Talks about Futures Trading Strategies" in 1987, and "Crow Talks about Investment Strategies--The Magical Murphy's Law" around 1994. Not only has he made great achievements in the field of writing, but he is also famous in investment transactions. Relying on the principle of trend trading, Stanley Crowe created a miracle of making a profit of 1 million US dollars with 18,000 US dollars in the rising commodity futures market in the early 1970s! After becoming famous and successful, Stanley Crowe took the huge wealth he gained on Wall Street, away from this competitive market, roaming the world, enjoying his own life; finally he died of myocardial infarction in 1999 due to obesity. Stanley Crowe's unrestrained attitude of "flicking his clothes away, hiding his body and fame" is consistent with Fan Li's state of boating on the West Lake after he retired from his career, and has always been admired by people; but here you use "Stan Leigh Crowe has disappeared" to comment, I don't know what it means. 2. Did Richard Dennis fail? Richard Dennis is a master of trend trading, and thus created the turtle trading rules. Such a powerful speculator is said to have suffered heavy losses in the 1987 stock market crash. At that time, his main position was in bonds. After the stock market crash, interest rates were lowered, and the trend of bonds skyrocketed. Although Richard Dennis had risk control, it would be difficult to stop for a while, so he suffered heavy losses. Then, in 1988, Richard Dennis announced that he would quit the speculative world and concentrate on politics. The above paragraph is the story of Richard Dennis circulated on the Internet, and it should also be the source of the title "Richard Dennis went into politics after a huge loss", right? This story is indeed close to ten, but where does the term "failure at a huge loss" come from? Did he fail? I didn't see it anyway. First of all, we need to know, which year did the turtle experiment start? 1983. Historical data shows that in the following 4 years, the sea turtle trainees generally achieved an average annual compound interest rate of 80%. That said, in 1987, the Turtles were still making deals for Richard. For this reason, I specially read "Turtle Trading Rules", which clearly stated as follows: October 19, 1987, the legendary "Black Monday". Curtis (Richard's best Turtle member and the author of the book) was running a $20 million account for Richard to trade. On the same day, he held short orders in euros and US dollars. At the same time, he held a large number of long orders in gold and silver, as well as several other foreign exchange varieties. You must know that the trading method of the Turtles is always to follow the trend. Moreover, the turtle trading rules have the logic of increasing positions, and orders are placed according to the proportion of funds. The biggest risk of the turtle trading rules, as I once said, is that when most of the underlying products they trade show signals at the same time, and just fill up their positions, and then a sharp reverse movement occurs, their retracement will Very big. At this time, in fact, the first half of this incident happened. Curtis described in the article that he held a lot of orders in heavy positions. And the next morning, when the market opened, the euros and dollars he was short jumped and opened sharply. And his bulls all opened sharply lower. The chart below shows the trend of the euro and dollar at that time: There is no doubt that he must stop the loss, but because the gap is too large, all his positions are basically equivalent to suffering the maximum blow. On this day, his $20 million account became $11 million. He said in the article: "It was XXX who raised interest rates overnight without warning, and it hurt me badly." Curtis has gone through this process, and it is estimated that Richard is also in the same situation. Therefore, as mentioned above, nearly half of the funds under its management have lost nearly half of the losses, which is just this wave of market prices. In the book, Curtis showed their capital curve after this market wave, as shown in the figure below: What's wrong with this funding curve? I don't think so. This is a normal small callback in the middle of the general trend going northeast! Those who said he failed, including the subject, how many of you can draw a 4-year fund curve with a better result than it? This curve cannot explain his failure at all. Since then, Richard Dennis has gone into politics. This can only show that Richard Dennis started his new career after experiencing a small stop loss in his life; does this have anything to do with the failure of the trend trading method? Who stipulates that the trend can only go in one direction to the end, and cannot be carried out in a way of big rise and small return? Questioner, your question "Is trend tracking a false proposition?" The two examples listed in this question are not valid, so your question is also a false question, so it is not worth answering.

How to judge the beginning and end of trend trading? Can you introduce the system?

tianji road

The so-called trend trading is what we usually call following the trend. So what does it mean to follow the trend? Going with the trend means that when the market trend is upward, then go long along the trend line; if the trend is downward, open short along the trend line; if it is a box arrangement, then sell high and buy low . Then, in order to follow the trend, there must be a trend first. What is a trend? The Dow Theory, the patriarch of technical analysis, defines it as follows: Under normal circumstances, the market does not go straight in any direction. The characteristic of the market movement is twists and turns. Its trajectory is like a series of successive, ups and downs, with obvious peaks and troughs. The trend is exactly the direction in which these peaks and troughs rise or fall in sequence. As these peaks and troughs increase or decrease sequentially, or extend horizontally, the evolution of their direction constitutes the trend of the market. Any trend will not appear out of thin air, it has a starting point and an end point. This area connecting the end of the old trend and the beginning of the new trend is what we usually call an inflection point! In this way, returning to the main question, the answer comes, how to judge the beginning and end of trend trading? In fact, how to grasp this inflection point is as simple as that! If you catch the first inflection point, that is the beginning of the trend; then you catch the second inflection point, that is the end of this round of trend and the beginning of a new round of trend. In a word, the trend continues before the inflection point (old trend), and the trend reverses after the inflection point (new trend comes). Refer to the figure. However, predicting the inflection point is often easier said than done, and it is very clear after the fact, and there are various entanglements in the matter. The most classic case is that a generation of master Benjamin Graham misjudged the beginning of the Dow’s upward trend in 1929. And the fact that it almost broke the warehouse. So, how can we grasp this inflection point well, or grasp the beginning and end of the trend? Personally, I think that the sharp tool for judging the inflection point lies in the technical form + wave theory. We know that there are two main classifications of technical patterns-reversal patterns and continuation patterns. Reversal patterns are true to their name, meaning that a major trend reversal is taking place, which is often the area where the turning point is located. The wave theory can divide the trend of the market by counting waves, and the junction of the impulsive wave and the adjustment wave is often the area where the inflection point is located. If the reversal signal in the technical form and the wave type boundary in the wave theory are combined, and where they overlap, then the probability of the inflection point is often close to ten. Combined with the direction of the wave type, then the beginning of a trend and The end is on paper.

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