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When you find that your trading strategy cannot cope with the market, how can you improve your trading strategy?

i have a domineering name

Strategies fail for a variety of reasons. We know that the fluctuation range of daily commodity prices will expand or shrink as the economic cycle changes. For example, gold, HSI The first thing to do is to review the failure of the original trading strategy, whether it is because of the problem of the setting of stop profit and stop loss, or the failure of the strategy itself. If it is the former, it means that the strategy itself is effective, and only need to adjust the stop-loss spread, expand or shrink. If the latter, then the strategy itself has its drawbacks. Next you do a detailed review of the strategy. Ask yourself a few questions: 1. The failure of new varieties, or the failure of original trading varieties If the new variety fails, the transaction result of the original variety is still normal. Then the variety characteristics of the new variety are not suitable for this kind of trading strategy. You have to think about it, should you make appropriate adjustments to the varieties, or give up new varieties, and still have varieties traded forever? If the crude oil variety fails, there is no need to rush to deny the trading strategy. Review the trend of the recent variety, define the trend structure of the variety according to the "Wave Theory", and then correspond to your own strategy to determine whether the strategy cannot implement this type of candle structure. If so, you must supplement the original strategy or Re-statistical strategy, finely divided to clarify a certain type of candle structure that the strategy applies to. 2. The original strategy must be overturned This kind of situation is an inevitable and painful process for traders. I got up early and overthrew many trading systems. I was panicked after being lost, and finally became more and more frustrated. Soberly realize that the transformation of thinking is the most critical. Strategies must be refined, efficient, reproducible, and less analytical. Doing a firm offer is not an analysis, and a long speech is a taboo. The more processes considered in the analysis, the higher the failure rate of the order. Why? The market is ruthless. If you participate in too much analysis when making a trading plan, you must add a lot of personal subjective views. Knowledge will easily reduce the success rate of the strategy. This is the most essential difference between analysts and traders. For traders, one sentence can solve or avoid many methods that do not require thinking but can increase profitability. And analysts can say a lot of ideas, but they lack solutions that can solve profitability. Therefore, trading strategies are not a game of words. Refined, simple, less analysis, and reproducible, a trading strategy with these four points is half the success. You look back at your trading system, is it too complicated? Use more than 3 reference cycle charts, draw more than 3 lines, and take more than 10 minutes for the next transaction order? If so, then your strategy will not be used for a long time, and will still be eliminated by the market sometime in the future. 3. How to rebuild the trading system Reverse thinking is the most critical. l Deduce the cause from the result l give up before gaining l Be patient first, then seek profit l Multiple reviews, perfect and perfect If you can meet the above four points in your understanding of trading, then you are a big step closer to a successful trading strategy. 3.1 Naked K At this point, let’s go back to the origin: Naked K. From naked K, to candle combination, and then to candle form. The relationship and connection between these three must be clear. Comprehensively summarize the respective characteristics of these three, I am talking about comprehensively summarized characteristics, not those long-winded essays written in books, you have to know the core usage points of naked K, the core usage points of candle combinations, and the candle shape at a glance. Key usage points. Don't talk about morning star, hanging man, gestating line, rising flag, head and shoulders... Such useless classifiers, you must clearly recognize from the beginning to the end that you are not lecturing, you are making money for firm offers, It's nice to say but it can't tell the truth of the K-line, so it's useless. If you can't grasp the core usage points of these three, I suggest you concentrate on reading "Wave Theory" several times. Naked K skills are the foundation of your firm offer. Many analysts can't become traders because their bare K skills are too poor. Analysts can only go up or down. For a firm offer, it is necessary to set a reasonable entry and exit point, position placement, capital use, and flexible exit strategy. useless. 3.2 1 or 2 species You have been trading for a while, choose the variety, or a category of varieties, that you want to do most. Forex market: straight, cross Precious Metals: Gold, Silver, Copper Energy: crude oil, natural gas Stock Index: Hang Seng Index, Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, A50 Choose 1-2 of them. You have to do it first, let yourself have the most familiar variety in your hand, and use this as the basis to build a trading strategy. This variety is the foundation for you to make money in the future. Even if other varieties do not apply, you have continuous capital gains. 3.3 Reproducible is the rarest Trading strategies are reproducible. A large number of review and simulated warehouse inspections are the most effective methods. If you think that the simulated warehouse is useless, it means that your own mentality is immature, and the trading attitude determines everything. Breakthrough in the market, sell high and buy low, martingale, top-bottom divergence, overbought and oversold, etc. Any trading method needs to be improved and adjusted, and it must not be bookish. Review and practice are ways to combine theory with practice. You will find that among the many trading methods today, these four trading methods have been widely used. However, neither will inform the public of their respective improved methods. Therefore, making good use of these four basic trading theories, combined with your own situation, and improving it into your own trading strategy is enough to create wealth for yourself.

Many people speculate in foreign exchange and rely on technology for analysis. What indicators reverse, graphs break... Do they really dare to ignore the fundamentals? Or when the direction given by the technical indicators is opposite to the direction revealed by the fundamentals, who should I trust?

浅时光bonne

The fundamentals of the foreign exchange market are often in line with the medium-term, especially the long-term trend, but often run counter to the short-term and short-term trends. Therefore, paying too much attention to fundamental analysis is often troubled in the foreign exchange market. How to solve it? For trading varieties with a long duration of the general trend, we generally choose the trading direction through fundamental analysis, but the entry point should be at the support or resistance level. The trading varieties with a short duration of the general trend mainly choose the trading direction through the current price technical trend. In the actual trading process, we will encounter such a situation. For example, we think that a certain product will fall from the fundamental analysis, but the technical analysis has been rising, and the increase is quite large, but soon after, the price fell again. Come back, the fall is more than the rise, and some investors will regret that they should not stop the loss when they were short, but should increase their short positions. Such an idea is very dangerous, because the price change itself has great uncertainty, and it cannot be 100% confirmed in advance when or whether the price will fall. Even if it can be confirmed, if the fund management is not good and the margin is not enough, the position may be forced to close, and it will be cold before the price falls. For basic analysis and technical analysis, which one is important depends on your operating ideas and techniques. The fundamentals must be aimed at the medium and long-term, and it is difficult for the fundamentals to affect the short-term trend if you have to hold a position for a long time. In terms of technology, because there are many indicators, the short, medium and long-term can be operated according to technology. Therefore, short-term traders will operate more according to technical indicators, because we generally do not do long-term. In addition, it is also difficult to obtain fundamental data. Compared with institutional funds, our news is lagging behind, and there are few ways to obtain it. The impact of the fundamental data we obtain is long-lasting, so it is often difficult to find a good entry point when positioning positions and hold them patiently for a long time. Looking at the flow of funds in the short term, the K-line is a direct reflection, which belongs to technical analysis. In the medium term, we look at the relationship between supply and demand. In the long term, we look at the policy conditions, that is, the fundamentals.

Why can you see the general direction right, but make a bad point in the transaction, and lose money instead?

坚持终会成功

"What's your morning routine like?

warren

My morning routine is really important to me. I feel much calmer when I follow it compared to just waking up and going straight to work. Here's what I do: - From 7 to 7:30 AM, I wake up, tidy up my place a bit. - At 8 AM, I take a shower and get ready. - Around 8:15 AM, I read my positive affirmations and gratitude list. - Then, at 8:30 AM, I check the stock market and make a plan for the day. - At 9 AM, I meditate for 10-20 minutes. - By 9:30 AM, I start trading. How about your morning routine?"

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Can the left transaction and the right transaction be combined?

chief sleep expert at ma jiao institute of technology

In the traditional sense, trading on the left is also called trading against the trend, while trading on the right is also called trading with the trend. Some people criticize the trading on the left as predictive trading, but they don’t know that the so-called trading on the right is just an expectation that the current direction can continue and the breakthrough can be maintained. , isn't this also a kind of prediction? The middle of the left and right is the reversal pattern, V-shaped reversal, head-shoulders reversal, W/M reversal, arc reversal, etc., all kinds of reversal patterns are counted. Entering the market before the reversal, that is, trading on the left side, needs to predict or plan two things, the occurrence of the reversal pattern and the continuation of the new trend after the reversal, the advantage is that there is a large profit margin; entering the market after the reversal, That is to say, in the trading on the right side, there is only one thing that needs to be predicted or planned, and that is that the new trend can continue. The disadvantage is that part of the potential profit space is lost. The winning rate of trading on the left is not necessarily low, and the winning rate of trading on the right is not necessarily high, depending on the current price pattern. The key difference between the so-called left-hand trading and right-hand trading is whether traders should wait until a clear reversal pattern appears before entering the market. The purpose is to participate in the market when the market starts. No one needs to say who is more greedy . Trend traders are firm traders on the right side. They pay more attention to the price pattern, and generally give up the period when the market has reversed but the trend has not been confirmed. The third wave starting from the turning point, the position where the callback is made after the reversal and then breaks through. The purpose of choosing the entry point is to let the market completely break away from the shock area formed by the reversal pattern. Trend traders have light positions, large target space, and long holding cycle, so they don't need to be too entangled in the reversal process. Correspondingly, the exit of trend traders is also on the right side. In order to prevent missing the follow-up big market, they often need to wait until a clear reversal pattern appears before exiting the market. Short-term traders are more suitable for trading on the left side. They generally only participate in a small part of the oscillating market or trending market, with heavy positions, small target space, and short order holding period. They trade based on resistance and support levels, not price patterns, and are in no position to wait for a full trend confirmation pattern to emerge. The market is in a state of shock most of the time, and you can only sell high and buy low on both sides of the box. If you wait until the trend is confirmed before placing an order, you will often be slapped in the face. Most of the profit space will be lost, and the loss outweighs the gain. When short-term traders participate in the trend market, they can often only participate in one wave of the confirmed trend development, and most of them will take profit and leave the market when the market is slightly frustrated. sideways. Trading on the left and right is just two means, and its purpose is to find a more advantageous trading signal. The primary consideration for choosing a trading signal is the expected profit-loss ratio, the ratio of the expected profit space to the expected stop-loss space. For shock trading, the expected take-profit range is the range of the entire box on the target side, the expected stop loss point is a point outside the target reverse box, and the best entry position is the edge of the box. If you use the right side to enter the market, your entry point will leave the edge of the box and enter a part of the box, which reduces your expected profit, increases your expected stop loss, and reduces your overall expectation Profit-loss ratio, so when short-term traders do volatile market, it is best to use the method of placing orders in advance and enter the market on the left side to get the smallest stop loss range, even if the winning rate is a little bit low, they are not afraid. When doing trend trading, the expected stop loss range is the entire reversal range. You have to wait until the market leaves this range and the trend is confirmed before it is possible to capture a wider profit space and increase the expected profit-loss ratio.

Attack on Israel boosts appeal of gold, safe-haven assets

saifalhilali

The violence in Israel that erupted this weekend is prompting a move into safe-haven assets as investors closely watch events in the Middle East to gauge the geopolitical risk to marketsRising geopolitical risk would see buying in assets like gold and the dollar , and boost demand for U.S. Treasuries, which have been sold off aggressively, analysts said over the weekend. As trading started in Asia on Monday those themes played out. U.S. stock futures slid < ESc1>, while crude , gold and Treasuries got a boost.

Road to consistent success

Why do many people say that those who use naked k to make orders are masters?

江州司马

If counting from the world's first stock exchange, trading has gone through 400 years of rapid development, during which countless trading indicators and methods have been created, such as the classification of indicators that indicate trends, shock range, There are many more complex composite indicators for the relationship between volume and price. Without exception, they all want to find a ruler to gain insight into the state of the market at all times, so as to provide a basis for trading decisions. Many veterans will gradually abandon indicators, because indicators have the following problems. 1. Alternative No matter how complex the indicators are, they are inseparable from the basic data of price, time and trading volume, and all the relationship information of volume, price, time and space is contained in the most basic indicators such as k-line and moving average. Usually we only look at the k-line and moving average, and observe the shape of the graph, so we can grasp the general situation of the market. Just like we can use BMI (Body Mass Index, BMI is equal to weight divided by the square of height) to judge whether a person is fat or thin. But can't we judge fat or thin without BMI? Just by looking at a person's appearance we can tell whether he is fat or thin. Moreover, due to differences in personal physique, the content of fat and muscle is different, and sometimes people with a slightly higher BMI appear thinner. You see, things that can be done at a glance, why do you have to weigh the weight and height first, and then compare it after the calculation? Sometimes it's better to keep it simple. 2. Poor versatility The foundation of an indicator is its logical thinking, not the number it indicates. Complicated indicators generally need to set some parameters, and the status indicated by the indicator with different parameters will be completely different. Like many indicators that indicate the strength of buying and selling, due to changes in the market, the same set of parameters cannot always indicate the true state of the market, which sometimes leads to serious distortion of the indicators. As for the setting of parameters, there is no uniform specification, especially for the less commonly used niche indicators. Use depends entirely on individual needs. I use the moving average as an example, one of the most commonly used indicators. Common 5 days, 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, 60 days, 120 days, 250 days. Because the 5th of stock trading is a week, the 20th is a month, the 120th is about half a year, and the 250th is about a year. People use it more and it is a convention, and the parameters that everyone is using are more useful. Just like the k-line, if there is a daily line, use the daily line. If you don’t, you have to get a 2/3 day one. That's okay, just be happy. 3. Limited effect What exactly is the transaction doing? Where is the upper limit of technology? Trading is nothing more than a game. In this market, if there is a lot, there will be space, until one side stops the loss and the other side makes a profit. The role of technology is to reveal the game relationship and accurately locate the key game positions. As for how to operate, it has to be chosen by people. Sometimes when we reach a certain key position, whether to go long or short even ourselves will be contradictory. Should we listen to indicators that seem unreliable? The parameters of the indicator are not set by yourself. I think that most people who have been trading for several years will not rely too much on indicators. However, in a specific market, such as after a big rise and fall, I foresee a period of shock adjustment in the market. During this period, I use preset Trading with a certain indicator with good parameters may still have a high accuracy rate. K-line, moving average, and trading volume are all necessary, and others depend on personal habits. People who have been trading for a long time, at least have more experience, and their skills are not too bad. The probability of being a master is relatively higher.

Is there a future for giving up your studies and doing business?

外汇零点零一

I don’t know why you gave up your studies to start trading. Is it because your grades are not good and you have no future in your studies. If you want to use trading to take over, or are you talented and born to do trading? No matter which one it is, I think you should first understand the foreign exchange market and the ability to do transactions. Foreign exchange trading is a very large field, and it is also the cruelest financial market The foreign exchange market is not only an industry with a transaction volume of 1 billion US dollars, but also a ruthless zero-sum game, like the cruelest fight in the virgin forest. The "small money" of thousands or tens of thousands of retail investors cannot withstand a small wave in the foreign exchange market, and will disappear in an instant. Therefore, if you plan to give up your studies to trade now, you can touch your pockets to see if you have the starting capital to enter the game. Even if you have a certain amount of money, you may be just a rich leek. Anyone with experience in forex trading knows that the majority of forex traders -- and just to clarify, when I say "retail trader" I mean you -- cannot profitably trade currencies. More than 50% of foreign exchange traders are losing money, of course, this ratio may be closer to 95%. This ratio is not my nonsense, you can check the profit account ratio published by foreign exchange traders every quarter. If you still don't believe me, you can find a very lively foreign exchange exchange group and ask: "Is there any trader whose annual income has exceeded 80% for 5 consecutive years?" The number of replies in the group is the answer, and behind the answer is : You can’t make money just by entering the foreign exchange market. You have to stand out from a group of people, and only one out of a hundred can become the promising one you imagined. Trading is a job, a high-intensity job, not to say that you can lie down and make money by happily buying and selling You may have heard some investors say that "the foreign exchange market is a place where you can get money by bending over". This sentence is correct, but there is another sentence in this sentence: But not everyone has The ability to pick up the money into the pocket. To become a professional investor, you must first be proficient in a variety of technical indicators and have your own investment strategy; familiar with the attributes of various varieties and the policies of central banks of various countries, and understand the twists and turns of fundamentals; integrate your own personality advantages, good skills, trading Philosophy to build your own trading system. If you still want to get in touch with the EA trading level, you must also have strong computer skills. So learning is everywhere. After getting through these, you can start trading, and the nightmare has just begun. You have to face small profits and big losses year after year. Is your trading mentality and self-regulation ability strong at that time? There are a lot of people who have a strong simulation and are confused about real trading. Many investors also leave at this stage, because the feeling of not being able to see the other side after paying for a long time is really tormenting. At the same time, anyone who has done trading knows that there are a few years in life that can be wasted. If the trading does not make a breakthrough, looking back, life may be difficult in the future, because you have neither a graduation certificate nor a period of time. Schedule, which is not very competitive in society. If you are really like the A Xing in the movie "Kung Fu", a one-in-a-kind martial arts genius, then I didn't say anything. Learning is a thing with a relatively stable return on investment There are tens of thousands of people who have completed their studies and been admitted to undergraduates, but there are only a few who are famous for their transactions. The door to trading is now only open to a few people, and it is definitely not the best policy to learn that there is no way out and be forced to devote yourself to trading. Not everyone is Soros, who can attack the Thai baht and Hong Kong dollar, triggering the Asian financial turmoil; not everyone is Ge Weidong, who can short copper prices and make billions of dollars. I hope you still consider it comprehensively. Success in each field requires a lot of hard work. It should not be assumed that everyone can get rich overnight in the foreign exchange market just because of a single example!

After five years of trading and losing everything, is there any hope of getting rich in the investment market?

heart road@life

I am also a professional day trader who has advanced all the way from Xiaobai, and most of my current source of income is from trading profits. From the beginning of contact in 2016 to the present, in the past 3 years, because it was not a full-time job, it was mainly a loss. By the end of 2019, I returned to my hometown to recuperate (the road to entrepreneurship was long and thorny) and began to devote myself to research and study. My personal feeling is that in the past 3 years or so, I followed the trend, went to a certain group of forums and platforms to find strategies for merchandising, and felt that I was awesome when I made a little profit, and I felt like I was nothing. In the low point, it was ridiculous to laugh and scold. During this period of time, the cumulative loss was nearly 2 million. In the end, the business in other places was sluggish, and my body suffered from diabetes. In addition, my wife returned home after she became pregnant. When I returned to my hometown, I bought an old remodeled house in a certain unit and failed to hand over the house, so I went to a nearby college to rent a house. The school environment is very quiet, there are stadiums, canteens, supermarkets and libraries, which meet the requirements of peace of mind and recuperation. After I settled down, I began to have the time and conditions to reflect on and study the transaction. Fortunately, I am eager to learn. If I don’t understand, I can find the answer by myself. I have read a lot of books and studied technical indicators, but there is still no improvement at the beginning. Instead, I fell into a dilemma. I have learned so much and haven’t made money. Is it because I am not suitable for this industry? The forum talks about human nature. Both. At that time, I was too complicated. Let’s not talk about epiphanies. After reaching the bottleneck, the road became simple. I started to turn around and stop studying such things as trend indicators. I first used the data of a certain ten to read news data. Later, I read more and found that there will be fixed information released at fixed time points every day, and fixed economic data will be released every week and every month. I started to list them myself. For example, global important The daily opening and closing performance of the stock market, the daily operations of the People's Bank of China, the opening and closing of onshore RMB, the level of fees in the Baltic Sea, and the release expectations of fixed economic data every week and every month. I also began to learn the correlation between global currencies, learn to see the impact of stock index futures on the spot opening, learn to see the impact of the US dollar supply chain on the global economy, and gradually have my own understanding of the basics of trading, and then do intraday range market , The market has gradually improved in the medium and long-term trend of low positions and relatively stable income. How can I say that I have a stable withdrawal of more than 500 US dollars a day (mainly for spot gold, and the position is maintained at about 10,000 US dollars) for living expenses, and now also on weekends. With time, energy and money, the family went out for a stroll, feeling simple and happy. After pouring so much water, I just want to talk about it from my own experience. No matter how many years of trading I have lost money, it only proves that there is no real basis for understanding investment transactions. For example, why do you need to take one subject, two subjects, three subjects and four subjects before you can officially start driving, so as to ensure that the steering wheel is safe in your hands. After learning the basics and consolidating knowledge, you can cultivate your mentality. Don't put the cart before the horse. The basic things are kindergarten, primary school, junior high school and high school. Those more advanced indicator systems should be something learned in college. A novice who is exposed to investment trading should not blindly look at the indicator trading system at the beginning, but settle down. Learn the most basic things, step by step from kindergarten, elementary school and junior high school. I have said a lot about it. Due to the rapid development of the Internet, trading and investment basically allow us to make money in unlimited time and regions, but whether it can become a life-long profit-making skill depends on personal practice. One last thing, find a good platform and learn it well. Technology can improve the quality of family life by hundreds of dollars a day. When you feel better, you can make orders more rhythmically and clearly.

It is said that "it is easy to get in but hard to get out", how to get out? How to keep profits from taking back?

jiaoyi golden eagle

Many people often enter the market after entering the market, and do not know how to exit the market. In fact, there is a causal relationship between exit and entry: 1. What is your admission basis? If this basis is destroyed, it will exit the field. If you don't know why you want to enter the market, you just enter the market when you feel that it is going to rise or fall, then of course you don't know how to get out of the market. The first is to form a regular and consistent admission principle. For example, if you trade with a double moving average system, you enter the market with a golden cross, and you exit the market with a dead cross; Therefore, the most important thing is to have regular and consistent entry principles . 2. Where is the target you looked at when you entered the field? Go out when the target is in place. For example, we often see oscillating market, there will be box shocks or triangle shocks. If you enter the market at the bottom of the box or triangle to do long, the target position will naturally be the upward extension of the box or triangle, and you will naturally exit when you reach the target position. If you don't know how to look at the target position, you can only exit the field according to the first method, that is, exit the field if your entry basis is destroyed. So how to keep profits from taking it? There are also two situations: 1. Attack: The market is in line with expectations. Enter the market after reaching your entry position, and then the market will move forward according to your previously expected target position. Naturally, when you get out of the target position, you will not take profits. 2. Defense: In situations like the above, it is rare for the market to develop as expected, so the most important thing to do in trading is to do a good job of defense. In other words, before you enter the field, you must understand under what circumstances you must exit the field. Since it is necessary to try to keep profits and not give up, it means that the market has developed partly as expected, but it may reverse at any time before reaching the target position. This depends on your technical system and how you measure the trend, such as Moving average or trend line, that is to break the line to exit; or more conservatively, according to the position of the next level, break the trend standard of the next level, then exit, this will keep more profits, but naturally it may break The sub-level standard will continue to trend after returning to the standard of this level, so you can also reduce half of the position after breaking the sub-level standard, and continue to hold the rest. This is a compromise method. Therefore, how to keep profits reasonably requires you to adjust and grasp according to your own technical system in practice. There is no universal method for this. The most important thing in trading is to do a good job of defense. As long as the defense is done well, the rest is to make money. It is unrealistic to think that you will not give up every time you make a profit in a transaction. If you can do that, it means that all the pulses of the market are under your control, and you will be able to buy the earth soon.

How to trade with support and resistance levels?

小赵论金

Thank you. What the subject wants to ask is how to use support and resistance to make better trading decisions? We know that support areas are areas where asset prices tend to stop falling, and resistance areas are areas where prices stop rising, but traders need more information before trying to make decisions based on the areas in the chart. An article collected and sorted out before should be useful to you. The specific instructions are as follows: 1. Use Trendlines On a candlestick chart, if the price stalls and reverses within a uniform price zone twice in a row, the horizontal line drawn indicates that the market is moving beyond that zone. In an uptrend, the price makes higher highs and higher lows. In a downtrend, the price makes lower lows and lower highs. Connect highs and lows during a trend. Then extend that line to the right to see where the price might find support or resistance in the future. These simple lines highlight trends, ranges and other chart patterns. They allow traders to visualize where the market is currently going and where it will go in the future. 2. Major and minor support and resistance levels Minor support and resistance levels will not last. For example, if the price is trending lower, it will make a low, bounce back, and start falling again. This low could mark an area of minor support as the price does stall and bounce off this level. But since the trend is down, it is very likely that the price will eventually break below this minor support level. Minor areas of support or resistance provide analytical insight and potential trading opportunities. In the example above, if the price did break below the minor support level, then we know the downtrend is still intact. However, if the price stalls and bounces back to the previous low, a range could be in place. If the price stalls and bounces back above the previous low, we have a higher low, which indicates a possible change in trend. Major support and resistance areas are price levels that have caused a trend reversal in the near term. If the price is trending up and then reverses to a downtrend, the price where the reversal occurs is a strong resistance level. Where a downtrend ends and an uptrend begins is a strong support level. When the price returns to a major support or resistance area, it will usually be difficult to break through it and move in the other direction. For example, if the price falls to a strong support level, it will often bounce off the price. The price may eventually break out, but usually the price pulls back from this level several times before then. 3. Trading based on support and resistance The basic trading method using support and resistance is to buy near support during uptrends or parts of the price range or chart patterns, and sell/sell short-term resistance during downtrends or parts of the price range and chart patterns. It helps isolate long-term trends even when trading ranges or chart patterns. The trend provides guidance for the direction of the trade. For example, if the trend is down but then forms a range, short selling at range resistance should be prioritized over buying at range support. A downtrend tells us that shorting is more likely to generate profits than buying. If the trend is up and then a triangle is formed, it is advisable to buy near the support of the triangle. Buying near support or selling near resistance can be rewarding, but there is no guarantee that support or resistance will remain the same, so wait for the market to change. If buying near support, wait for a consolidation in the support area, then buy when the price breaks above the highs in that small-cap area. When the price is so volatile, it lets us know that the price is still respecting the support area and that the price is starting to move higher from the support. The same concept applies to resistance selling. Wait for a consolidation near resistance, then enter a short trade when the price dips below the low of the minor consolidation. When buying, place your stop a few cents below support), and when shorting, place your stop a few cents above resistance. In some cases, one may be able to make more profits if a breakout is allowed, rather than selling at minor support/resistance. For example, if you are buying near the support of a triangle in a larger uptrend, you may want to hold the trade until it breaks the triangle resistance and continues the uptrend. There is also the concept that old support can become new resistance and vice versa. Not always, but it does act as a good support or resistance point under very specific conditions, such as a second breakout. 4. Error breakthrough Asset prices generally move slightly higher than we expect. This doesn't happen all the time, but when it does, it's called a false breakout. If our analysis shows support at $10, hit $9.97 or $9.95 and start bouncing again. Support and resistance are areas, not exact prices. Expect the price to behave differently around support and resistance. It cannot stop at the exact same price as before. False breakouts are excellent trading opportunities. One strategy is to actually wait for a false breakout and then enter the market after it does. For example, if the trend is up, and the price falls back to a support level, let the price fall below the support level, then buy when the price starts to rise back above the support level. Likewise, if the trend is down and the price falls back to the resistance level, let the price break through the resistance level and then go short when the price starts to break below the resistance level. The downside of this method is that false breakouts will not always occur, one that means good trading opportunities may be missed. Therefore, it is often best to take advantage of upcoming trading opportunities. If you happen to catch the wrong false breakout trade, it will be a good opportunity. Since false breakouts do occasionally occur, the stop loss should be placed well away from the support or resistance so that the false breakout does not hit the stop before moving in the desired direction. 5. Adapt trading decisions to new support and resistance levels Support and resistance are dynamic, so trading decisions based on them must also be dynamic. In an uptrend, the last low and the last high are important. If the price makes a lower low, it signals a potential trend change, but if the price makes a new high, it helps confirm an uptrend. Trends often run into trouble in areas of strong support or resistance, and they may end up Will break through, but usually takes time and multiple attempts. Mark the major support and resistance levels on the chart, because if the price approaches these areas, they may be active again at this point. Remove them once they are no longer relevant - such as if the price breaks out of a strong support or resistance area and continues to move further into the distance. Also mark current and relevant minor support and resistance levels on the chart. These will help you analyze current trends, ranges and chart patterns. These minor levels quickly lose their relevance as new minor support and resistance areas form.

Is there a future for giving up your studies and doing business?

picture

How to judge the real strength of a trader?

a river of flowing water

My buddy was fooled by the "teacher" in the QQ group again, and lost tens of thousands of yuan, and now he is drinking to relieve his worries. Fooled by teachers in the QQ group? Being led astray by the teacher in the live broadcast room? Get liquidated by a copycat boss? There are many new traders who have been scammed. Have you ever been scammed? But there is no other way, his own strength is not enough, so he can only seek help. The market is full of fish and dragons, so how can we accurately find a truly powerful "trading master"? From what aspects should we judge the real strength of a trader?

Why can't we control frequent transactions?

weak water scoop

Many people know that frequent trading is not allowed, and that frequent trading is a taboo, it is wrong and should be avoided. But we tell ourselves again and again that we can’t trade frequently anymore, and we will chop our hands if we trade frequently, but we continue to trade frequently again and again. Many people blame their frequent trading on their greedy mentality. Is this really the reason? I don’t think so. I think the fundamental reason why most people can’t control frequent trading is that there are no clear trading rules. There are trading rules but they are vague and not detailed enough, that is, there is no well-optimized trading system. This can lead to many opportunities that appear to be opportunities but do not appear to be opportunities. Especially when prices fluctuate rapidly, it is easy for us to regard irregular fluctuations as trading opportunities under the emotional background. We know that the market will go up and down all the time, so it is very easy for us to feel that every moment is an opportunity. Rise is also an opportunity, and the road is also an opportunity. Anyway, as long as you think that the screen is full of opportunities, you want to make money all the time, so frequent transactions occur. In fact, sentiment is affected by the market. It is easy to be pessimistic when the market is falling, and too optimistic when the market is rising. Emotions are greatly affected by market fluctuations, so chasing ups and downs, or hunting for bottoms and peaks, is impulsive trading. For most people, especially for beginners, this is the main reason. If there is no basis, the natural society will be chaotic; if there is no obstacle to escape, the operation will be chaotic. If there are no strict rules, no matter how many oaths you swear and how many hands you cut off, you will still commit the crime next time. Under the condition that there are no rules, you swear to reduce frequent transactions, which is not wishful thinking. I have a deep understanding of this in my many years of trading. Only after countless times of pain and regret, I will improve after I have trading rules that suit me. Most people, including me who just entered the market, think that as long as the market goes up or down in their world, it is an opportunity. Because as long as there is a rise and fall, there is a price difference, and there is a profit if there is a price difference. And the market is going up and down all the time, so there are opportunities all the time, why can't you operate all the time? At this time, it is difficult to talk about reducing the frequency of transactions, because they have no rules and systems, and there will be many profitable orders in frequent transactions, how to reduce them. Even reducing the frequency of transactions will not increase their success rate. If the frequency is low, the success rate is still very low, and failure is inevitable. For many veterans, although they have established trading rules to some extent, they are not detailed enough, clear enough, and there will be many opportunities in the market that seem to belong to you but do not belong to you, so at that time, it was difficult to clearly understand We know whether it is own chance. Most people are afraid of missing opportunities and have a natural urge to chase profits. In the face of crazy profits, people will forget the risk and choose the profit. So there will be too frequent transactions. Fundamentally, the primary reason for frequent trading is the lack of a detailed and effective trading rule. Novices are most likely to make mistakes and veterans are also likely to make mistakes. Therefore, it is best for us to take every transaction seriously from the very beginning, and create trading rules and systems that suit us as soon as possible.

Comprehend the transaction and record the growth

What is trading cognition, and what are the trading cognitions?

几孤风月

Isn't trading cognition just the cognition of trading? Everyone is different, so it's hard to say exactly what these cognitions are. Cognition is a process. When you first come into contact with trading, it can be said to be a blank sheet of paper and you don’t understand anything. If you trade directly, there will be a result: a big loss and a liquidation, or a sudden profit and then a loss. In fact, it is a loss in the end. The second stage is when you start to really learn to trade. At this time, you think that trading needs to learn a lot of knowledge and technology, so you start reading books, looking for indicators, templates, strategies or EA. Anyway, you want to know everything about trading. But no matter how much you learn, how many indicators and techniques you acquire, it seems that you still cannot make stable profits. The third stage is to realize that the market is actually a game of probability. After understanding this, you will no longer worry about which technologies are easy to use and which strategies can perfectly adapt to the market (which does not exist), but you know that it is just a probability. You no longer insist on making money on every order, but just know that the profit will eventually be greater than the loss. The last stage is the mentality and money management stage. When you understand the operating laws of this market, you will realize that only by maintaining a good attitude and prudent capital management can you ultimately succeed. A virtuous circle is: Confidence --- self-discipline --- profit --- pride --- self-confidence The vicious circle is: Profit---violation of strategy---loss---frustration (emotional loss)---big loss Therefore, after the above four stages, if we can move towards a virtuous circle, then we can gain a foothold in this market.

How to completely trust a trading system?

zekui

A complete set of trading system, as a whole, consists of a series of components including its own trading ideas, trading theories, trading strategies, and risk management; Back to this question, I should know that any theory has flaws, and there will be no absolute advantage, otherwise the market will not exist. This is an idea. Under this premise, although you know that your trading theory is flawed, you believe that the system you have established has a positive advantage in a long enough time span. If the problem is clear, you only need to understand how to transition yourself from believing to trusting. The premise of trust is that you have to fully accept it. This system brings you advantages, but it will also bring negative factors, so the first step is to accept it. Only when you accept it from the bottom of your heart, will the foundation of trust be laid; Secondly, this problem is different according to the people in different trading stages. I will create a quadrant below to find out the corresponding reasons for the problems and goals faced at different stages, and give my solution based on the actual situation; If you don’t have your own trading system here, then you can’t talk about trust. Therefore, traders at this stage should focus on learning, keep reading, read a lot of books, listen to lectures, and learn from teachers if conditions permit. It has been said that learning is increasing, and Dao is losing day by day. If there is no benefit from knowledge, how can there be subsequent Dao. Therefore, at this stage, you must read a lot of books to prepare for the accumulation of knowledge in the future, and quantitative changes lead to qualitative changes; It is obvious why most traders cannot trust a trading system. The first one may be someone else’s system. We just know it, but it is not highly recognized by the body and mind, so we need to practice more. Feeling shallow, absolutely knowing that this matter has to be done. If you practice more, you will naturally have physical signs and your own opinions; The second situation is more advanced than the first one. At this time, signs are formed, and I believe in the superiority of this system, and I also have my own insights. Through addition, subtraction, and perfection, I make other people's models more suitable for my personality, but due to Lacking better profits, we are still in the stage of doubt. The system does not work when we believe it, and the system works particularly well when we don't believe it. In this case, we usually start with our own trading ideas, otherwise we will not be able to get out of this predicament. There are flaws in any theory, you can only be in trouble if you fully accept the risk, let yourself go, and clear your head For all the above reasons, the final result is that the trading system is not perfect. If it is perfect and the body agrees, then there will be no distrust. Therefore, it is the same for those who understand it. The overall lack of trust in the trading system is followed by the erroneous trading ideas. They believe that there is a completely superior trading theory and pursue the holy grail of trading. Then there will be problems at the root; followed by the chaotic trading theory. I hope to take into account all market conditions and all varieties. All-day market, control all varieties, then there will be theoretical confusion, and thinking will fall into entanglement; the third is the complexity of strategies and the diversity of structures. Different time periods have different structures. If there are too many structures, they will also fall into the priority Inconsistency; the last is the non-uniformity of risk. When the risk is large and the actual small, the position is small when making money, and the position is large when losing money, so the theoretical advantage cannot be achieved; Summary: To achieve complete trust in your own trading system, you only need to understand that the so-called right way in the world is the vicissitudes of life. If you practice more and make more mistakes, you will naturally understand that the so-called your world is your own decision;

Trend naked K trading

What nonsense have you heard in trading?

猎手

Thank you [A Big Goose] for the invitation. I have a personal experience here, which hurts me a lot! That is: the first lie in the history of futures: who said that the price cannot be returned to zero? A century-old history of futures, new nonsense every month! Which is the biggest nonsense among them? There may have been disputes before, but after this year's "long time seeing" negative oil price incident, it is estimated that everyone has reached a consensus: "commodity prices cannot be returned to 0", this is the biggest lie in the history of futures! Commodity prices cannot be returned to 0, let alone negative. This is probably the most basic common sense of the people, but there has been no written statement on this until the appearance of Fu Haitang. Fu Haitang's mouth: Commodity prices cannot be returned to zero! It is said that there are four heavenly kings in the Chinese futures market, and they are: Dongxie-Ge Weidong, nicknamed "Boss Ge", Xikuang-Lin Guangmao, nicknamed "Bumbo Savage", and Southern Emperor-Ye Qingjun, nicknamed "Ye Dahu" , "Soros of China", the northern beggar-Fu Haitang, nicknamed "Peasant Philosopher". Among them, the most admired by retail investors (including me) is Mr. Fu Haitang. Because unlike the other three, Fu Haitang did not register a company or manage money on behalf of clients. He was the first person who truly turned from a farmer who grew garlic and raised pigs into a legend in the futures market. It is also because Fu Haitang started from the grassroots and has experienced similar pains experienced by the majority of A-share investors, so his speeches can often resonate with the majority of investors. In an interview in 2018, Mr. Fu Haitang solemnly threw out the view that "commodity prices will not return to 0, and long positions will always have an advantage over short positions". The specific interview content is as follows: Haitang: There is a nickname for me in the industry called "dead long", but it is actually a misunderstanding. Because I am also short, but I know that the advantages of short positions are not at the same level as those of long positions. Natural short positions have no advantage over long positions. If under natural circumstances. If the power of the bears is one catty, the power of the bulls is three catties. If we say that we do not add analysis, we will do it by drawing lots. Anyway, one is long and one is short, either rising or falling. In this way, in the end, if the bears have one success, the bulls will have three successes. If the short side can make 10,000 yuan, the long side can make at least 30,000 yuan. It's not a magnitude, it's not a class. Because the decline has always been a discount, and the market has never doubled, no matter how big the bear market is. If you find one that has doubled in price, you won’t be able to find it, because it will return to zero if it falls twice. It's impossible to return to zero, right? You can't sell things to buy things, right? Commodities are valuable, and if they cannot be returned to zero, they cannot be doubled. Therefore, the profit of short selling is limited, and the rise has always been doubled, and it is very easy to double. It was the content of this interview that deeply moved me. Yes, since the commodity price cannot be 0, then doing long when the price is low, of course, will always have an advantage over short selling! Since then, a long-term complex has been firmly established in my mind, and the concept of "commodity prices will not be 0" can be said to be deeply ingrained, but this almost caused the collapse of my futures investment career! The negative price of crude oil caused my investment career to return to zero! It is said that since January this year, due to the verbal claims of Russia and Saudi Arabia, the international crude oil price has started a "falling and falling" mode; Oil prices have been collapsing frequently since March. When the time came to March 30, the main crude oil contract began to fall below the $20 mark. At this time, I started to buy crude oil futures. The investment logic is simple. Since the cost of US crude oil is about $40, the cost of Russia is about $20, and the cost of Saudi Arabia is around $10; therefore, I judge that when crude oil falls below $20, Russia will definitely compromise and connect With the United States putting pressure on Saudi Arabia, oil prices returned to around $40. Buying bottoms at this time is completely in line with Mr. Fu Haitang's theory that the cost determines the price, and thinking that the downside space of crude oil is limited and the upside space is huge (the minimum limit will not fall to 0, but the upside can see more than 100 US dollars), so I The position is relatively large. Of course, although the position was large, the worst plan I made at the time was that I would liquidate the position if the crude oil fell below $5. I felt that this was impossible, so I dared to take a heavy position. After buying the bottom on March 30, the oil price rebounded as I expected and rose from $20 to over $30. Because of the 10 times leverage, my profit was very rich. In line with the plan to let the profit run, I did not Instead of cashing in profits, he chose to hold the position and wait for the arrival of $40. However, starting from April 9, the price of crude oil began to drop continuously, and gossip about the "crude oil dragon slaying bureau" was also circulating in the market. But I think this is definitely the news released by the main bulls washing the market. Crude oil prices will not fall to 0, so how much room is there for a drop? This is just a normal adjustment caused by the main force washing dishes, persistence is victory! Finally, April 20, which can be recorded in the history books of crude oil, has finally arrived. That night, the price of WTI crude oil futures for delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange in May fell sharply. In just 90 minutes, it fell below nine integer psychological barriers between US$10 and US$1. It fell to a negative value less than half an hour before the close. It once fell to -$40/barrel, an intraday drop of more than 300%, and finally closed down $55.90, a drop of 305.97%, to -$37.63/barrel. My God, to hell with Mr. Fu Haitang's "commodity prices cannot be returned to 0", the price of crude oil is not only returned to 0, but also negative! What does a negative price mean? This means that for the first time in the history of oil trading, the seller must pay the buyer for the purchase of crude oil futures! This means that all the longs in the May contract have been buried - they have lost their positions, not only have they lost all their capital, but also owed a large amount of money to the traders! Fortunately, the position I established at that time was the June contract. Although the June contract did not have a negative number, when the May contract showed a negative number, the June contract also fell to $6.5, which is very close to my liquidation line. s position. Because the appearance of the negative price of the May contract was really shocking, it completely collapsed the concept of "commodity prices cannot be returned to 0" that I believed in before. There is no choice but to stop the loss and get out. This crude oil bargain hunting almost lost all my investment profits of more than ten years. From now on, whenever I see news about Fu Haitang, I will immediately flip the screen. If anyone tells me that the price of goods cannot be returned to 0 in the future, I will definitely go to hell with him!

When I was doing stock trading, I made money almost every year, but since I started this industry, I have lost money almost every year! It is said that currency trading is more difficult than stock trading, what is the difficulty?

潇丶雲

thank you Foreword: "Know yourself, know your enemy, and win a hundred battles" As a full-time trader, I position myself as a pure investor. As long as which variety can make money, I will trade in which market. Earn as much money as you can afford! ! I mentioned it in an article in my own circle: I am a trader who kills stocks and exchanges In terms of stocks: not very strong, the securities internal real offer competition is the sixth in the country (of course there is water, after all, not all securities personnel have time to participate in the competition) A little understanding of foreign exchange: I have always been a lazy cancer trader who does not compete with the sky, does not compete with the earth, and draws circles on the spot to earn money within my ability! First, let’s talk about the similarities between the two: 1: Any financial derivative product must follow the market rules! And this market law will be reflected in the K-line combination trend! For example: the law we are talking about can be the wave theory or the K-line structure, and it is also the interlinked application of indicators! The most obvious ones are moving averages and macd. Will it not reverse if it deviates from the stock? When have you seen something that keeps rising and can keep getting out of boll? No, trading follows "volume", "price", "time" and "empty", and naturally all derivatives also follow the law! I classify the four elements as trading rules, and the indicators or methods we use as trading skills. 2: Since they all follow the trading rules, their core construction will be based on human nature! I have brought up this phenomenon many times, every transaction we make, every price exchange! What you see on the surface is the exchange price, but the exchange direction is actually the exchange of human nature (the author once thought, is it feasible if human nature only writes desire? The answer is no, because a complete transaction will naturally have two sides, which is the big A deficiency. s things) It can be seen from this that such schools of consciousness as anti-human nature and trends can be expressed in both. Back to the topic, the situation given to me by the subject is: the stock is not losing much, and the foreign exchange is losing money. First of all, to answer your first question, due to the particularity of domestic stocks, it is relatively easy to make stable profits in stocks. That is to say, domestic stock trading does not require too much technical ability, and pays more attention to: policy interpretation, hot spot tracking, anti-human psychology and other skills. And because of T+1 and the continuity of the market time cycle, the market sometimes gaps and reverses the indicator, which causes the original indicator to lag! There is a certain lag in the use of technical indicators themselves, but the behavior of the stock just now will amplify this lag! Sometimes it takes a certain amount of courage and courage to make a lot of money in stocks. (Most of the gaps are caused by important changes in the news during the market gap period) And for foreign exchange, because of T+0, the continuity of the market time cycle and two-way operation! As a result, it cannot be covered like a stock. When you understand technical analysis and trading, you will find that the volatility of the foreign exchange market is actually smaller than that of the stock market! Because most of the technical signals that appear coherently in time can also be detected, and the two-way operation ensures flexibility. Based on the above description: the technical analysis ability of the subject has not yet met the requirements of the foreign exchange market. Because the threshold for technical analysis in the stock market is relatively low. After finding the problem with the internal factors of the market, let's continue to explore the external factors! Let’s start with the traders first. I once said that traders should jump out of their own logical circle, otherwise all your replays are just copy and paste! It is not advisable to do foreign exchange with stock thinking! ! ! Earning 1 percentage point on stocks, regardless of leverage, is incomparable to earning 1 percentage point on foreign exchange. Due to the high yield and bi-directionality. As a result, the K-line trend of foreign exchange will not be similar to that of stocks. The trend of stocks is mostly in one direction (the sky and the floor are rarely seen), while the foreign exchange has two characteristics just now that cause its trend to be coherent, but it does not only have one direction in a day like stocks! Therefore, in terms of operation, more attention should be paid to the pressure of long and short profit taking to leave the market after making a profit. All buying is equal to shorting! ! ! (Buying down is equal to long positions in the future) There is no one that has been rising all the time. After a certain profit, everyone will become short and lock in profits. Two-way trading is important to learn to short! ! ! The author is a trader who especially likes to short orders. In fact, we can’t blame everyone for this. Due to the difference in humanistic thinking, foreign people are more snobbish, so they will go long and short as long as they have money, while domestic financial derivatives have been discussed since everyone entered the market. How to buy a stock that is expected to rise, And securities lending and arbitrage generally do not learn. The reason why most of the domestic traders are leeks. In fact, Soros's classic battles are all in the short direction. To do a good job in foreign exchange trading, you must learn to do short trading. In fact, if the technical indicators are used in reverse, they will become empty side usage. If you are tired, I will add it another day!

Trading system design and optimization

山城老刁民

Usually, the formation of a trading system needs to go through three stages. The first is the generation of a trading idea, which can be a complex theory, a simple technique, or any other idea that you think can be profitable. The second is to transform the concept into a corresponding strategy. Specifically, it is necessary to clarify the core operation arrangements such as entry, stop loss, and take profit that are compatible with the strategy. Finally, a complete system is formed, that is, on the basis of the above, the various elements are solidified into clear trading rules to form a reproducible trading system. The so-called reproducible means that anyone who operates according to the signals of this system has no difference in performance . The most critical sign of a successful trading system is that its performance generally shows large profits and small losses for a long period of time, at least it must be able to pass the test of historical market conditions. However, the author believes that this is far from enough, and further important analysis of the four dimensions of the trading system is needed to determine the profitability of the trading system and determine the direction of future improvement. The first dimension is the winning rate of the trading system, that is, the respective proportions of the number of profitable transactions and the number of losing transactions in the total number of transactions. The second dimension is the profit-loss ratio of the system, which is the ratio of the average amount of money won each time to the average amount of money lost each time. The third dimension is the friction rate of the system. Everyone knows that futures is a zero-sum transaction. Every time a transaction is completed, various fees including handling fees must be paid. No matter whether the transaction is profit or loss, it cannot be avoided. This fee rate That is the friction rate. The fourth dimension is frequency, which refers to the average number of times the system sends out trading signals within a period of time, such as a year. Now we can analyze the correlation of the above four dimensions with the profitability of the trading system. First of all, is a high winning rate guaranteed to be profitable? Not necessarily, in extreme cases, such as 99 consecutive 100% profits, as long as there is one 100% loss, even if there is a 99% winning rate, the final result will still be zero. Secondly, is a high profit-loss ratio guaranteed to make a profit? Not necessarily, for example, an average of 3 wins and 2 losses, but if an average of 1 win is accompanied by 2 losses, then it will still be a loss after offsetting, so the winning rate must be combined with the profit-loss ratio to form the most common mathematical expression of the trading system , that is: total profit = profit times × average profit amount - loss times × average loss amount. The third is the friction rate, that is, the amount of money consumed by each transaction. This is an absolute consumption, so of course the less the better. The last is the frequency, that is, how often is a transaction performed on average. If it takes one to two years for a profitable trading system to capture a trading opportunity, this is by no means an excellent trading system. Next, let us combine the four-dimensional evaluation method to analyze the two basic types of trading systems. The author believes that there are two basic types of trading systems, one is the oscillating trading system based on the oscillating market, and the other is the trend trading system based on the trending market. The oscillating trading system strives to maximize profits in the oscillating market, while trying to avoid possible losses when the trend comes, while trend trading is just the opposite. From the comparison of the above four dimensions, we will find that compared with the trend-based trading system, the oscillating trading system usually requires a higher winning rate, generally greater than 50%; a relatively loose profit-loss ratio, which can be below 1; due to the trading frequency Higher, requires a very low friction rate, that is, this type of system needs to accumulate profits through a very large number of transactions, extreme such as intraday speculation, it is necessary to minimize friction loss; correspondingly, the oscillation type The capital curve of the trading system is relatively smooth, with less retracement. Trend trading usually only requires a low winning rate, which can be less than 50% or even lower, but must have a higher profit-loss ratio, such as advance 3 retreat 2, or even advance 2 retreat 1 or higher, and a relatively loose friction rate . Because the transaction frequency is relatively low, higher transaction costs can also be tolerated, and its capital curve may have a certain percentage of large retracement. If someone wants to ask whether it is possible to design a trading system that combines the two, I think it can be realized, but the composition is more complicated. We know that parameter optimization and capital management are two important ways to improve the performance of trading systems. Next, we will discuss the focus of performance improvement by combining the characteristics of the two basic types of trading systems. The first is the relationship between system profitability and parameter optimization. Even if a system can be profitable through the historical market test under certain parameter conditions, it may not necessarily be profitable in reality. The problem is most likely to lie in two links. One is that it cannot be realized a priori, which means that the idealized degree of the test transaction cannot be fully realized in reality. For example, the liquidation in the test may be a real stop, or it may be specifically related to the market selected during the test period. The second is that the posterior cannot be realized, which means that the transaction in the test requires very precise operating discipline, but in the actual implementation, due to the operator's reasons, the system cannot be fully mechanized, resulting in a profitable system turning into a loss. The first case can be optimized mainly by adjusting parameters, while the second case needs to adjust the system so that people and the system can achieve harmony and unity. For the same strategy, different parameters may determine the profit and loss of the same system, and parameter optimization plays a very important role. The second is the relationship between system profitability and fund management, where fund management mainly refers to position control. Because the oscillating trading method mainly accumulates profits through multiple small profits, it requires a relatively large position at the beginning in most cases, and requires very strict stop loss control when the trend may come, so for oscillating trading systems Focus on parameter optimization. Trend trading can tolerate more trial and error, the purpose is to let the profits run, so relatively speaking, fund management or position management has more room to play in the trend trading system. The author believes that for the trend trading system, on the one hand, it is necessary to improve the winning rate of the transaction through parameter optimization, and then improve the profit rate of the system, especially each product may have different optimal parameters, and sometimes the market within a period of time will also have special On the other hand, it is also necessary to improve the profit margin of the system by increasing the profit-loss ratio. Sometimes the role of fund management, that is, position management, is even more important than parameter optimization. The key lies in whether the operator can distinguish between Under which conditions in the trend trading system are more likely to have a strong trend, and which transactions will be stopped by the system. Only by deeply understanding one's own trading system and making corresponding improvements can the performance of the trading system be continuously improved.

old troublemaker in mountain city

The sharp rise and fall of gold that I have experienced several times have been greatly affected by the news, so do various indicators have practical guiding significance in dealing with the big market?

chief sleep expert at ma jiao institute of technology

Thank you. To understand this problem, we must first understand and agree with the following three points of view: First: technical indicators are not the driving force for the development of the market, but the flow of funds entering the market is ; second: there is no relationship between technical indicators and the subsequent market Third: The subsequent new market can destroy the structure of technical indicators and make them passivated, but the market itself will not become invalid at any time. The emergence and development of the short market is not because of the short indicators in the early stage, but because there are a large number of traders who sell short, exceeding those who buy long at the same time, and vice versa. The vast majority of people have reversed the causal relationship between the technical indicators used in market analysis and the development of market conditions. In fact, it is the development of the market that leads to the emergence of a certain technical indicator, not the other way around. For example, the golden cross of the moving average is the result of the rising market, and it is not the golden cross of the moving average that causes the market to rise; another example is that the reversal pattern of the K line is the result of the reverse development of the market, and it is not the appearance of the reversal pattern of the K line that causes the market to reverse. towards development. If you study the formulas and analysis principles of technical indicators, you will find that all market analysis technical indicators are calculated using past market conditions, and it does not contain any future factors. That is to say, it can be concluded from the process of mathematical derivation that any Technical indicators have nothing to do with the future market in essence. But after all, we study technical indicators to judge how the market will develop in the future. Although the market technical indicators are only statistical analysis reports on past transaction data, this is also its greatest significance. It shows both long and short sides participating in the market . traces left in the process . For example, a breakout is a sign of a trend-following trader joining, a reversal is a sign of a reverse trader joining, a pressure line is a sign of bull exhaustion, and a support line is a sign of bear exhaustion. Technical analysis has an important theoretical basis, that is, the effectiveness of the market. The market can reflect the influence of all market participants on the development of the market, whether it is a trader who continues to participate in a steady stream, or a trader who suddenly appears and disappears, whether it is a continuous The small transactions, or the concentrated huge transactions, can be fully reflected in the technical indicators. But in any case, technical indicators can only tell you what has happened in the market, but cannot tell you what will happen in the market. The technical indicator itself is absolutely objective, and all the data used to calculate it are known and determined. However, linking technical indicators with the follow-up market, whether it is reviewing the market in the past or predicting the future market, is an absolutely subjective behavior. Subjectivity means uncertainty, and it only represents the operator's own judgment on the continuity of a certain indicator and a certain follow-up market, and it may not be seen that way by another person. Subjectivity also means being divorced from the facts. Subjective opinions are not a reflection of the facts. They may or may not conform to the facts, depending on the level of cognition and analysis of the parties involved. There is a sentence in "Sun Tzu's Art of War: Marching","When it rains, the water will foam, and those who want to get involved, wait for it to be determined." When a field march encounters a big river, the foam and tree branches mixed on the water surface are from the upper reaches. Heavy rain, people who want to cross the river have to wait, because you don't know that the flood peak will not arrive while you are crossing the river. This is an example of the relationship between signals and facts. People who want to cross the river downstream do not know whether it is sunny or rainy upstream hundreds of miles away, but they can judge whether there will be floods by the floating objects on the water surface, instead of sending a scout to the upstream to see. The technical indicator of market conditions is "foam", which can tell you the participation of both long and short sides in the market. You have to rely on these clues to judge which side is stronger and choose to join. Relying on news trading does not belong to the content of the technical analysis system. Traders are most likely to be affected by news. Universal news can often make most traders have consistent expectations and actively participate in the market In order to quickly promote the development of the market. It can be said that there is an inevitable causal relationship between news and subsequent market development, which is the biggest difference between news trading and technical analysis trading. Markets affected by news are more destructive to technical indicators, and have no necessary connection with the expectations of previous technical indicators, and are essentially speculative trading behaviors. It should be noted that ordinary traders are limited by information channels and cannot learn about market news in a timely manner, while professional traders are often able to learn about the news and start planning before it is announced to the public, and wait until everyone knows it before rushing When entering the market, you can only accept orders for others. This is the reason why gold fell so rapidly yesterday and started to rebound again today. The rapid development of the news market is to prevent ordinary traders from participating. when.

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